Ben Ezra
@benezrafx.bsky.social
FX Trader & EM Macro Strategist
emerginglens.substack.com
emerginglens.substack.com
Reposted by Ben Ezra
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is set to secure a resounding victory, with polls showing her party on track to emerge from Sunday’s parliamentary election with a standalone majority in the lower house. Follow live updates.
Japan Exit Poll Shows Takaichi's Party Set to Win Majority
Japan Election 2026: Takaichi Predicted to Widen LPD Support. Live News
bloom.bg
February 8, 2026 at 11:18 AM
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is set to secure a resounding victory, with polls showing her party on track to emerge from Sunday’s parliamentary election with a standalone majority in the lower house. Follow live updates.
Reposted by Ben Ezra
Coming in April: the paperback edition of my book KING DOLLAR, with a new preface reflecting developments in 2025, i.e. the follies of Trump & Co.
Do those developments vitiate the book’s thesis that dollar dominance is all but impregnable?
My answer, hot off the press:
🧵
www.ft.com/content/a326...
Do those developments vitiate the book’s thesis that dollar dominance is all but impregnable?
My answer, hot off the press:
🧵
www.ft.com/content/a326...
Don’t bet on dollar dethronement
If you want to see how entrenched the US currency is in the global system, look at the foreign exchange swap market
www.ft.com
January 30, 2026 at 10:52 AM
Coming in April: the paperback edition of my book KING DOLLAR, with a new preface reflecting developments in 2025, i.e. the follies of Trump & Co.
Do those developments vitiate the book’s thesis that dollar dominance is all but impregnable?
My answer, hot off the press:
🧵
www.ft.com/content/a326...
Do those developments vitiate the book’s thesis that dollar dominance is all but impregnable?
My answer, hot off the press:
🧵
www.ft.com/content/a326...
Reposted by Ben Ezra
Vietnam willing to boost US purchases, trade minister says, as new round of tariff talks begins reut.rs/4qeCBd6
Vietnam willing to boost US purchases, trade minister says, as new round of tariff talks begins
Vietnam is willing to increase purchases of U.S. goods, especially machinery and high‑tech products, its trade minister said on Wednesday, as the Southeast Asian nation began its sixth round of tariff negotiations in Washington this week.
reut.rs
February 4, 2026 at 3:40 AM
Vietnam willing to boost US purchases, trade minister says, as new round of tariff talks begins reut.rs/4qeCBd6
Reposted by Ben Ezra
We’re not saying that Japan’s finance ministry is a macro hedge fund, we’re just noting that it has … accidentally made hundreds of billions of dollars from FX punts. www.ft.com/content/b88a...
Japan’s finance ministry isn’t a massive macro hedge fund
It’s just made hundreds of billions of dollars by accident
www.ft.com
January 29, 2026 at 7:32 AM
We’re not saying that Japan’s finance ministry is a macro hedge fund, we’re just noting that it has … accidentally made hundreds of billions of dollars from FX punts. www.ft.com/content/b88a...
open.substack.com/pub/emerging...
The popular narrative is that the dollar is stumbling under protectionism and policy risk. With gold and silver elevated, many assume the debasement trade is back. But that misses the real story
#Econsky
The popular narrative is that the dollar is stumbling under protectionism and policy risk. With gold and silver elevated, many assume the debasement trade is back. But that misses the real story
#Econsky
The Dollar Isn’t Falling — It’s Recycling
The narrative is everywhere.
open.substack.com
January 29, 2026 at 7:26 AM
open.substack.com/pub/emerging...
The popular narrative is that the dollar is stumbling under protectionism and policy risk. With gold and silver elevated, many assume the debasement trade is back. But that misses the real story
#Econsky
The popular narrative is that the dollar is stumbling under protectionism and policy risk. With gold and silver elevated, many assume the debasement trade is back. But that misses the real story
#Econsky
Reposted by Ben Ezra
The debt-fueled economy.
"US Consumers Keep Spending Faster Than Their Incomes Are Growing"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article... #EconSky
"US Consumers Keep Spending Faster Than Their Incomes Are Growing"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article... #EconSky
January 23, 2026 at 1:49 PM
The debt-fueled economy.
"US Consumers Keep Spending Faster Than Their Incomes Are Growing"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article... #EconSky
"US Consumers Keep Spending Faster Than Their Incomes Are Growing"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article... #EconSky
open.substack.com/pub/emerging...
The Indian rupee battered down against US Dollar and trading at record low levels of 92/ USD. But this persistent rupee depreciation is more of a capital flow problem rather than a Trade problem.
Emerging Lens Analyses!
#Econsky
The Indian rupee battered down against US Dollar and trading at record low levels of 92/ USD. But this persistent rupee depreciation is more of a capital flow problem rather than a Trade problem.
Emerging Lens Analyses!
#Econsky
Why Capital Is Quietly Leaving India — and What It Means for the INR
India’s Macro Problem Is Capital, Not Trade
open.substack.com
January 23, 2026 at 12:28 PM
open.substack.com/pub/emerging...
The Indian rupee battered down against US Dollar and trading at record low levels of 92/ USD. But this persistent rupee depreciation is more of a capital flow problem rather than a Trade problem.
Emerging Lens Analyses!
#Econsky
The Indian rupee battered down against US Dollar and trading at record low levels of 92/ USD. But this persistent rupee depreciation is more of a capital flow problem rather than a Trade problem.
Emerging Lens Analyses!
#Econsky
Excellent writing by Michael Sir . It's also very true for India too
3/12
These analysts seem to forget that you cannot change your capital account without also changing your trade account, and that you cannot change your external imbalances without also changing your internal imbalances.
These analysts seem to forget that you cannot change your capital account without also changing your trade account, and that you cannot change your external imbalances without also changing your internal imbalances.
January 22, 2026 at 2:52 PM
Excellent writing by Michael Sir . It's also very true for India too
open.substack.com/pub/emerging...
Bond volatility is going global. EMs look stronger, U.S. debt is heavier, Japan’s long end is cracking and gold is making new highs. The long end is talking. Are we listening?
#Econsky
Bond volatility is going global. EMs look stronger, U.S. debt is heavier, Japan’s long end is cracking and gold is making new highs. The long end is talking. Are we listening?
#Econsky
When Global Bond Markets Start Talking to Each Other
Global capital flows are behaving in a way that feels counter-intuitive at first glance.
open.substack.com
January 22, 2026 at 4:56 AM
open.substack.com/pub/emerging...
Bond volatility is going global. EMs look stronger, U.S. debt is heavier, Japan’s long end is cracking and gold is making new highs. The long end is talking. Are we listening?
#Econsky
Bond volatility is going global. EMs look stronger, U.S. debt is heavier, Japan’s long end is cracking and gold is making new highs. The long end is talking. Are we listening?
#Econsky
1/2
Bloomberg: " Meanwhile, from a total returns perspective, developed nations’ sovereign bonds haven’t rewarded long-term investors.They’ve been in the red, with Japan dishing out the ugliest performance"
#Econsky
Bloomberg: " Meanwhile, from a total returns perspective, developed nations’ sovereign bonds haven’t rewarded long-term investors.They’ve been in the red, with Japan dishing out the ugliest performance"
#Econsky
January 22, 2026 at 3:23 AM
1/2
Bloomberg: " Meanwhile, from a total returns perspective, developed nations’ sovereign bonds haven’t rewarded long-term investors.They’ve been in the red, with Japan dishing out the ugliest performance"
#Econsky
Bloomberg: " Meanwhile, from a total returns perspective, developed nations’ sovereign bonds haven’t rewarded long-term investors.They’ve been in the red, with Japan dishing out the ugliest performance"
#Econsky
Reposted by Ben Ezra
Carney's speech now silver standard #econsky
Mark Carney's speech is now only the second most acute analysis of where the world is at right now:
January 21, 2026 at 2:51 PM
Carney's speech now silver standard #econsky
Reposted by Ben Ezra
A trade deal between the US and European Union is on hold after the European Parliament decided to freeze a ratification vote in response to President Trump’s escalating threats to seize Greenland
EU Freezes US Trade Deal Approval Over Trump’s Greenland Threats
A trade deal between the US and European Union is on hold after the European Parliament decided to freeze a ratification vote in response to President Donald Trump’s escalating threats to seize Greenland.
bloom.bg
January 21, 2026 at 2:51 PM
A trade deal between the US and European Union is on hold after the European Parliament decided to freeze a ratification vote in response to President Trump’s escalating threats to seize Greenland
Reposted by Ben Ezra
Treasury yields inch lower as investors monitor escalating trade tensions
Treasury yields inch lower as investors monitor escalating trade tensions
U.S. Treasury yields declined on Wednesday as tariff threats ignited 'sell America' trade fears and investors continued to monitor geopolitical uncertainty.
cnb.cx
January 21, 2026 at 9:52 AM
Treasury yields inch lower as investors monitor escalating trade tensions
Reposted by Ben Ezra
Investors seeking to dump US assets amid geopolitical uncertainty would be taking a “dangerous bet,” UBS Group AG Chief Executive Officer Sergio Ermotti said in a Bloomberg Television interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland
Exiting US Assets Is a ‘Dangerous Bet’, UBS CEO Ermotti Says
Europeans tempted to weaponize their holdings of US government debt amid the standoff with President Trump over Greenland are making a “dangerous bet” that risks backfiring.
bloom.bg
January 20, 2026 at 10:30 PM
Investors seeking to dump US assets amid geopolitical uncertainty would be taking a “dangerous bet,” UBS Group AG Chief Executive Officer Sergio Ermotti said in a Bloomberg Television interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland
Reposted by Ben Ezra
French President Emmanuel Macron this week called for an emergency meeting in Paris with European leaders to address tensions with the U.S. over President Donald Trump's pursuit to acquire Greenland as well as tariffs.
www.thehindu.com/news/interna...
www.thehindu.com/news/interna...
Trump says he won't attend emergency Paris meeting on Greenland called by Macron
Trump declines to attend Macron's emergency meeting on Greenland, amidst rising tensions with European leaders over tariffs.
www.thehindu.com
January 21, 2026 at 2:19 AM
French President Emmanuel Macron this week called for an emergency meeting in Paris with European leaders to address tensions with the U.S. over President Donald Trump's pursuit to acquire Greenland as well as tariffs.
www.thehindu.com/news/interna...
www.thehindu.com/news/interna...
Reposted by Ben Ezra
Danish pension fund to dump US treasuries
"The US is basically not a good credit and long-term the US government finances are not sustainable," says chief investment officer
www.investing.com/news/stock-m...
"The US is basically not a good credit and long-term the US government finances are not sustainable," says chief investment officer
www.investing.com/news/stock-m...
Danish pension fund AkademikerPension to exit US Treasuries By Investing.com
Danish pension fund AkademikerPension to exit US Treasuries
www.investing.com
January 20, 2026 at 2:46 PM
Danish pension fund to dump US treasuries
"The US is basically not a good credit and long-term the US government finances are not sustainable," says chief investment officer
www.investing.com/news/stock-m...
"The US is basically not a good credit and long-term the US government finances are not sustainable," says chief investment officer
www.investing.com/news/stock-m...
Reposted by Ben Ezra
Its kind of funny that the leading edges of both the US public and private sectors are converging (but for different reasons) on “Buy more of our stuff, world.”
January 21, 2026 at 2:39 AM
Its kind of funny that the leading edges of both the US public and private sectors are converging (but for different reasons) on “Buy more of our stuff, world.”
Reposted by Ben Ezra
In @nytopinion.nytimes.com
“When I took my post as secretary general of the Council of Europe just over a year ago, I did not think that I would ever have to write about the possibility of the United States taking military action against a member state,” Alain Berset writes.
“When I took my post as secretary general of the Council of Europe just over a year ago, I did not think that I would ever have to write about the possibility of the United States taking military action against a member state,” Alain Berset writes.
Opinion | I’m the Secretary General of the Council of Europe. This Is Something I Thought I’d Never Have to Write.
International law is either universal or meaningless. Greenland will show which one we choose.
nyti.ms
January 20, 2026 at 8:45 AM
In @nytopinion.nytimes.com
“When I took my post as secretary general of the Council of Europe just over a year ago, I did not think that I would ever have to write about the possibility of the United States taking military action against a member state,” Alain Berset writes.
“When I took my post as secretary general of the Council of Europe just over a year ago, I did not think that I would ever have to write about the possibility of the United States taking military action against a member state,” Alain Berset writes.
More Dollar sell off is coming as Trump's Greenland Grab is bearish for USD.
January 20, 2026 at 9:14 AM
More Dollar sell off is coming as Trump's Greenland Grab is bearish for USD.
FT:
1/2
"If Europe wants to deter Washington from a Greenland takeover, it could signal it wants government-affiliated investors such as public pension funds to review and potentially scale back US Treasuries exposure. "
1/2
"If Europe wants to deter Washington from a Greenland takeover, it could signal it wants government-affiliated investors such as public pension funds to review and potentially scale back US Treasuries exposure. "
Europe can actually leverage its holdings of Treasuries as a defence for Greenland - Rebecca Patterson argues here www.ft.com/content/7d64...
Treasuries could be Europe’s best defence for Greenland
The region’s vast holdings of US government debt give it leverage with the Trump administration
www.ft.com
January 20, 2026 at 8:25 AM
FT:
1/2
"If Europe wants to deter Washington from a Greenland takeover, it could signal it wants government-affiliated investors such as public pension funds to review and potentially scale back US Treasuries exposure. "
1/2
"If Europe wants to deter Washington from a Greenland takeover, it could signal it wants government-affiliated investors such as public pension funds to review and potentially scale back US Treasuries exposure. "
1/2
Elon Musk's Grok has been accused recently of making sexualised images of minors and children, without Impunity?
I no longer use Twitter.
Elon Musk's Grok has been accused recently of making sexualised images of minors and children, without Impunity?
I no longer use Twitter.
January 20, 2026 at 7:25 AM
1/2
Elon Musk's Grok has been accused recently of making sexualised images of minors and children, without Impunity?
I no longer use Twitter.
Elon Musk's Grok has been accused recently of making sexualised images of minors and children, without Impunity?
I no longer use Twitter.
Reposted by Ben Ezra
Eight European countries that sent troops to Greenland said they stood united with Denmark after President Trump threatened to impose tariffs on them.
French President Emmanuel Macron said “no intimidation nor threat will influence us.”
French President Emmanuel Macron said “no intimidation nor threat will influence us.”
European leaders say they won’t be ‘blackmailed’ by Trump’s tariff threats
Eight European countries that sent troops to Greenland said they stood united with Denmark after President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on them.
www.washingtonpost.com
January 19, 2026 at 3:00 AM
Eight European countries that sent troops to Greenland said they stood united with Denmark after President Trump threatened to impose tariffs on them.
French President Emmanuel Macron said “no intimidation nor threat will influence us.”
French President Emmanuel Macron said “no intimidation nor threat will influence us.”
Reposted by Ben Ezra
EVERCORE: “.. If implemented, [Trump’s Greenland] tariffs would violate the U.S.-EU and U.S.-UK trade deals struck earlier this year, sending a worrisome signal not just to those trading partners but to any other that has made or is contemplating a trade deal with Trump.”
January 19, 2026 at 12:59 AM
EVERCORE: “.. If implemented, [Trump’s Greenland] tariffs would violate the U.S.-EU and U.S.-UK trade deals struck earlier this year, sending a worrisome signal not just to those trading partners but to any other that has made or is contemplating a trade deal with Trump.”
Reposted by Ben Ezra
FEDWATCH: Silver, platinum and tin “are once again a main driver of a potential next wave of inflation. .. This will pose dilemmas for global central banks ..”
January 19, 2026 at 1:25 AM
FEDWATCH: Silver, platinum and tin “are once again a main driver of a potential next wave of inflation. .. This will pose dilemmas for global central banks ..”