Ben Chu
@benchu.bsky.social
Policy and analysis correspondent, BBC Verify.
https://www.benchu.co.uk/
Author of "Exile Economics: What Happens if Globalisation Fails", published May 2025
https://linktr.ee/exileeconomics
https://www.benchu.co.uk/
Author of "Exile Economics: What Happens if Globalisation Fails", published May 2025
https://linktr.ee/exileeconomics
...yields now down a bit more - so far so good for HMT...
November 26, 2025 at 1:49 PM
...yields now down a bit more - so far so good for HMT...
The latest tax increases are very backloaded in the forecast - according to the OBR projected borrowing is up in every year to 2028-29 relative to the March 2025 Spring statement - only falls in 2029-30
November 26, 2025 at 1:18 PM
The latest tax increases are very backloaded in the forecast - according to the OBR projected borrowing is up in every year to 2028-29 relative to the March 2025 Spring statement - only falls in 2029-30
Little movement (so far) in UK government market borrowing costs in response to the Budget - couple of basis points +/- across the yield curve.
Looks like markets expected new headroom vs fiscal rules of around £22bn... www.bloomberg.com/markets/rate...
Looks like markets expected new headroom vs fiscal rules of around £22bn... www.bloomberg.com/markets/rate...
November 26, 2025 at 1:08 PM
Little movement (so far) in UK government market borrowing costs in response to the Budget - couple of basis points +/- across the yield curve.
Looks like markets expected new headroom vs fiscal rules of around £22bn... www.bloomberg.com/markets/rate...
Looks like markets expected new headroom vs fiscal rules of around £22bn... www.bloomberg.com/markets/rate...
Many thanks to @vickyspratt.bsky.social for this lovely recommendation of my series "The Tax Conundrum" on BBC Sounds...
inews.co.uk/opinion/22k-...
inews.co.uk/opinion/22k-...
November 19, 2025 at 12:37 PM
Many thanks to @vickyspratt.bsky.social for this lovely recommendation of my series "The Tax Conundrum" on BBC Sounds...
inews.co.uk/opinion/22k-...
inews.co.uk/opinion/22k-...
...And in terms of asylum applications per 10,000 people the UK is lower down, at 16 per 10,000 people in 2024...
November 17, 2025 at 6:19 PM
...And in terms of asylum applications per 10,000 people the UK is lower down, at 16 per 10,000 people in 2024...
"We have become the destination of choice in Europe" according to the Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood.
Data from Eurostat & the Home Office shows the UK had the fifth largest number of claims of the EU/UK area in 2025, at 108,000... assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/691ae0...
Data from Eurostat & the Home Office shows the UK had the fifth largest number of claims of the EU/UK area in 2025, at 108,000... assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/691ae0...
November 17, 2025 at 6:19 PM
"We have become the destination of choice in Europe" according to the Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood.
Data from Eurostat & the Home Office shows the UK had the fifth largest number of claims of the EU/UK area in 2025, at 108,000... assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/691ae0...
Data from Eurostat & the Home Office shows the UK had the fifth largest number of claims of the EU/UK area in 2025, at 108,000... assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/691ae0...
UK 10 year Gilt yield is now up around 8 basis points today (0.08%) & the 30 yield yield is up 10 basis points (0.1%).
Both down a bit from the market open - but still a material increase in UK gov borrowing costs in response to the income tax rise flip-flop...
www.bloomberg.com/markets/rate...
Both down a bit from the market open - but still a material increase in UK gov borrowing costs in response to the income tax rise flip-flop...
www.bloomberg.com/markets/rate...
November 14, 2025 at 10:35 AM
UK 10 year Gilt yield is now up around 8 basis points today (0.08%) & the 30 yield yield is up 10 basis points (0.1%).
Both down a bit from the market open - but still a material increase in UK gov borrowing costs in response to the income tax rise flip-flop...
www.bloomberg.com/markets/rate...
Both down a bit from the market open - but still a material increase in UK gov borrowing costs in response to the income tax rise flip-flop...
www.bloomberg.com/markets/rate...
Very useful chart from Berenberg - the blue bars are the tariffs that could be removed if the US Supreme Court strikes down Trump's emergency tariffs (though the White House could well respond by using other tariff legislation to try to re-impose them)
November 14, 2025 at 10:06 AM
Very useful chart from Berenberg - the blue bars are the tariffs that could be removed if the US Supreme Court strikes down Trump's emergency tariffs (though the White House could well respond by using other tariff legislation to try to re-impose them)
....The data also shows a significant increse in the margins of non-supermarket retailers on fuel sales
November 5, 2025 at 10:26 AM
....The data also shows a significant increse in the margins of non-supermarket retailers on fuel sales
UK supermarkets have doubled their profit margins on fuel sales since 2017, according to data from the Competition and Markets Authority...
www.gov.uk/government/n...
www.gov.uk/government/n...
November 5, 2025 at 10:25 AM
UK supermarkets have doubled their profit margins on fuel sales since 2017, according to data from the Competition and Markets Authority...
www.gov.uk/government/n...
www.gov.uk/government/n...
...And here's the latest Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts for both.
Both measures essentially flat as a share of GDP over the Parliament.
obr.uk/data/
Both measures essentially flat as a share of GDP over the Parliament.
obr.uk/data/
November 4, 2025 at 6:32 PM
...And here's the latest Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts for both.
Both measures essentially flat as a share of GDP over the Parliament.
obr.uk/data/
Both measures essentially flat as a share of GDP over the Parliament.
obr.uk/data/
Interesting that Rachel Reeves in her economy speech referenced public sector net debt when she said it's at £2.9 trillion/95% of GDP - her fiscal rules are targetting a different (lower) measure of the national debt called "public sector net financial liabilities".... www.gov.uk/government/s...
November 4, 2025 at 6:32 PM
Interesting that Rachel Reeves in her economy speech referenced public sector net debt when she said it's at £2.9 trillion/95% of GDP - her fiscal rules are targetting a different (lower) measure of the national debt called "public sector net financial liabilities".... www.gov.uk/government/s...
...Not especially.
They would take China's purchase volumes back to where they were before this year's trade war and China's moratorium on buying US soybeans...
They would take China's purchase volumes back to where they were before this year's trade war and China's moratorium on buying US soybeans...
October 30, 2025 at 4:56 PM
...Not especially.
They would take China's purchase volumes back to where they were before this year's trade war and China's moratorium on buying US soybeans...
They would take China's purchase volumes back to where they were before this year's trade war and China's moratorium on buying US soybeans...
Waiting to go on Newsnight to talk about what the Trump/Xi summit means for global trade!
@bbcnewsnight.bsky.social
BBC2 /iPlayer now
@bbcnewsnight.bsky.social
BBC2 /iPlayer now
October 29, 2025 at 10:33 PM
Waiting to go on Newsnight to talk about what the Trump/Xi summit means for global trade!
@bbcnewsnight.bsky.social
BBC2 /iPlayer now
@bbcnewsnight.bsky.social
BBC2 /iPlayer now
About to speak to Paddy O’Connell on Broadcasting House on BBC Radio 4 about how much asylum seekers receive in UK state support - and how that compares to other EU countries’ systems
#BroadcastingHouse
#BroadcastingHouse
October 26, 2025 at 9:09 AM
About to speak to Paddy O’Connell on Broadcasting House on BBC Radio 4 about how much asylum seekers receive in UK state support - and how that compares to other EU countries’ systems
#BroadcastingHouse
#BroadcastingHouse
Pleased to see "The Tax Conundrum" is radio pick of the day in the i paper and the Daily Mail 👇
October 20, 2025 at 8:57 AM
Pleased to see "The Tax Conundrum" is radio pick of the day in the i paper and the Daily Mail 👇
The Tax Conundrum is Pick of the Day in the Mail on Sunday and the Radio Times describes and the Radio Times says “a lid is lifted and all is illuminated”...
October 19, 2025 at 8:21 AM
The Tax Conundrum is Pick of the Day in the Mail on Sunday and the Radio Times describes and the Radio Times says “a lid is lifted and all is illuminated”...
Since 2010 government policy has reduced the income of working age people by an average of £1,400 per year relative to where they would otherwise be.
At the same time the triple lock has pushed up the incomes of older people by £900 a year...9/11
At the same time the triple lock has pushed up the incomes of older people by £900 a year...9/11
September 16, 2025 at 3:20 PM
Since 2010 government policy has reduced the income of working age people by an average of £1,400 per year relative to where they would otherwise be.
At the same time the triple lock has pushed up the incomes of older people by £900 a year...9/11
At the same time the triple lock has pushed up the incomes of older people by £900 a year...9/11
It’s true that some countries have a more generous system - the state pension currently replaces around 54% of average UK earnings, compared to the developed country average of 61%...6/11
September 16, 2025 at 3:20 PM
It’s true that some countries have a more generous system - the state pension currently replaces around 54% of average UK earnings, compared to the developed country average of 61%...6/11
And the poverty rate of pensioners is now lower than of working age people - with working age non-parents shown in green, at 17% in 2024, and working age parents shown in blue, at 25%...4/11
September 16, 2025 at 3:20 PM
And the poverty rate of pensioners is now lower than of working age people - with working age non-parents shown in green, at 17% in 2024, and working age parents shown in blue, at 25%...4/11
But, since then, the poverty rate of the group has fallen quite dramatically to 16% in 2024, reflecting the retirement of many relatively well-off baby boomers...3/11
September 16, 2025 at 3:20 PM
But, since then, the poverty rate of the group has fallen quite dramatically to 16% in 2024, reflecting the retirement of many relatively well-off baby boomers...3/11
In the early 1990s the poverty rate of pensioners - defined as the share of the group living on less than 60% of average incomes after housing costs - was around 40%...2/11
September 16, 2025 at 3:20 PM
In the early 1990s the poverty rate of pensioners - defined as the share of the group living on less than 60% of average incomes after housing costs - was around 40%...2/11
By contrast asylum claims from people who arrived by small boats are still rising - and at a higher level - 43,600 in the year to june...
September 2, 2025 at 11:30 AM
By contrast asylum claims from people who arrived by small boats are still rising - and at a higher level - 43,600 in the year to june...
The Home Secretary is focusing today on students who go on to claim asylum.
Home Office data shows the numbers of asylum seekers who were previously issued with a student visa are up in recent years, to 14,800 in the year to June, though some signs of a peak...
Home Office data shows the numbers of asylum seekers who were previously issued with a student visa are up in recent years, to 14,800 in the year to June, though some signs of a peak...
September 2, 2025 at 11:30 AM
The Home Secretary is focusing today on students who go on to claim asylum.
Home Office data shows the numbers of asylum seekers who were previously issued with a student visa are up in recent years, to 14,800 in the year to June, though some signs of a peak...
Home Office data shows the numbers of asylum seekers who were previously issued with a student visa are up in recent years, to 14,800 in the year to June, though some signs of a peak...
Back in the Newsnight studio with Paddy O’Connell to talk about immigration - perceptions and fact
Join us at 1030pm on BBC2 and iPlayer
Join us at 1030pm on BBC2 and iPlayer
August 28, 2025 at 9:16 PM
Back in the Newsnight studio with Paddy O’Connell to talk about immigration - perceptions and fact
Join us at 1030pm on BBC2 and iPlayer
Join us at 1030pm on BBC2 and iPlayer