Ben Carlson
@bencarlson007.bsky.social
www.awealthofcommonsense.com
3 reasons we can't have another 1929:
1. There are more rules in place (no SEC, FDIC back then)
2. The stock market is way more important (1-2% of households owned stocks in 1929)
3. Policymakers have learned from past crises
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/why-...
1. There are more rules in place (no SEC, FDIC back then)
2. The stock market is way more important (1-2% of households owned stocks in 1929)
3. Policymakers have learned from past crises
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/why-...
Why We Can't Have Another 1929 - A Wealth of Common Sense
Could another Great Depression actually happen?
awealthofcommonsense.com
November 12, 2025 at 5:08 PM
3 reasons we can't have another 1929:
1. There are more rules in place (no SEC, FDIC back then)
2. The stock market is way more important (1-2% of households owned stocks in 1929)
3. Policymakers have learned from past crises
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/why-...
1. There are more rules in place (no SEC, FDIC back then)
2. The stock market is way more important (1-2% of households owned stocks in 1929)
3. Policymakers have learned from past crises
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/why-...
Animal Spirits: Is a 50 Year Mortgage a Good Idea?
The benefits of bubbles
The K-shaped economy narrative is going too far
Why are restaurant stocks getting killed?
How to fix the housing market
Robinhood, degens, Las Vegas & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/anim...
The benefits of bubbles
The K-shaped economy narrative is going too far
Why are restaurant stocks getting killed?
How to fix the housing market
Robinhood, degens, Las Vegas & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/anim...
November 12, 2025 at 1:51 PM
Animal Spirits: Is a 50 Year Mortgage a Good Idea?
The benefits of bubbles
The K-shaped economy narrative is going too far
Why are restaurant stocks getting killed?
How to fix the housing market
Robinhood, degens, Las Vegas & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/anim...
The benefits of bubbles
The K-shaped economy narrative is going too far
Why are restaurant stocks getting killed?
How to fix the housing market
Robinhood, degens, Las Vegas & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/anim...
In the Roaring 20s Benjamin Graham turned $400k into $2.5 million
After the crash from 1929-1932 the $2.5 million turned into just $375k
In his memoir Graham wrote about how hubris was the cause of his losses
Some thoughts on bull market brain:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/ben-...
After the crash from 1929-1932 the $2.5 million turned into just $375k
In his memoir Graham wrote about how hubris was the cause of his losses
Some thoughts on bull market brain:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/ben-...
November 11, 2025 at 9:21 PM
In the Roaring 20s Benjamin Graham turned $400k into $2.5 million
After the crash from 1929-1932 the $2.5 million turned into just $375k
In his memoir Graham wrote about how hubris was the cause of his losses
Some thoughts on bull market brain:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/ben-...
After the crash from 1929-1932 the $2.5 million turned into just $375k
In his memoir Graham wrote about how hubris was the cause of his losses
Some thoughts on bull market brain:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/ben-...
Everyone thinks young ppl are screwed
AI is taking entry level jobs
Housing is too expensive
Social media is rotting brains
I don't buy it. Young ppl are more educated & tech savvy than ever
They'll figure it out
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/are-...
AI is taking entry level jobs
Housing is too expensive
Social media is rotting brains
I don't buy it. Young ppl are more educated & tech savvy than ever
They'll figure it out
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/are-...
November 10, 2025 at 3:30 PM
Everyone thinks young ppl are screwed
AI is taking entry level jobs
Housing is too expensive
Social media is rotting brains
I don't buy it. Young ppl are more educated & tech savvy than ever
They'll figure it out
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/are-...
AI is taking entry level jobs
Housing is too expensive
Social media is rotting brains
I don't buy it. Young ppl are more educated & tech savvy than ever
They'll figure it out
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/are-...
Pluribus might be one of the best pilot TV episodes of the past 20 years
Insanely intriguing
Insanely intriguing
November 10, 2025 at 2:20 AM
Pluribus might be one of the best pilot TV episodes of the past 20 years
Insanely intriguing
Insanely intriguing
Build more homes?
Nah let’s use 50 year mortgages
Buy cheaper sedans instead of expensive trucks?
Nah let’s do 84 month auto loans
Make food at home?
Nah let’s pay for a private taxi for a burrito from DoorDash
Nah let’s use 50 year mortgages
Buy cheaper sedans instead of expensive trucks?
Nah let’s do 84 month auto loans
Make food at home?
Nah let’s pay for a private taxi for a burrito from DoorDash
November 8, 2025 at 8:26 PM
Build more homes?
Nah let’s use 50 year mortgages
Buy cheaper sedans instead of expensive trucks?
Nah let’s do 84 month auto loans
Make food at home?
Nah let’s pay for a private taxi for a burrito from DoorDash
Nah let’s use 50 year mortgages
Buy cheaper sedans instead of expensive trucks?
Nah let’s do 84 month auto loans
Make food at home?
Nah let’s pay for a private taxi for a burrito from DoorDash
Reader questions:
Should young ppl care about bubbles?
Is now the time to increase your tech exposure?
I have thoughts:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/is-n...
Should young ppl care about bubbles?
Is now the time to increase your tech exposure?
I have thoughts:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/is-n...
Is Now the Time to Go All-In on Tech Stocks? - A Wealth of Common Sense
Should young people care about bubbles? Is now the time to double down on tech stocks?
awealthofcommonsense.com
November 7, 2025 at 3:16 PM
Reader questions:
Should young ppl care about bubbles?
Is now the time to increase your tech exposure?
I have thoughts:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/is-n...
Should young ppl care about bubbles?
Is now the time to increase your tech exposure?
I have thoughts:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/is-n...
I don’t think ppl are ready for how AI is gonna make wealth inequality worse
If I was running PR for the Mag 7 companies I’d have them all throw in for a human fund for ppl who see their jobs displaced by AI
If I was running PR for the Mag 7 companies I’d have them all throw in for a human fund for ppl who see their jobs displaced by AI
November 7, 2025 at 12:37 AM
I don’t think ppl are ready for how AI is gonna make wealth inequality worse
If I was running PR for the Mag 7 companies I’d have them all throw in for a human fund for ppl who see their jobs displaced by AI
If I was running PR for the Mag 7 companies I’d have them all throw in for a human fund for ppl who see their jobs displaced by AI
Because inflation got to 9% in 2022 every politician for the next decade is going to campaign on lower prices and making things more affordable
My guess is none of them are going to deliver
Likely the only thing that will do it is a recession
My guess is none of them are going to deliver
Likely the only thing that will do it is a recession
November 6, 2025 at 6:58 PM
Because inflation got to 9% in 2022 every politician for the next decade is going to campaign on lower prices and making things more affordable
My guess is none of them are going to deliver
Likely the only thing that will do it is a recession
My guess is none of them are going to deliver
Likely the only thing that will do it is a recession
In the 1950s the S&P 500 was up ~500% or almost 20% per year
It's the only mega bull market to end w/a whimper not a bang
There was no crash in the aftermath
The 1960s saw 8% annual returns
Not all good things end badly
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/the-...
It's the only mega bull market to end w/a whimper not a bang
There was no crash in the aftermath
The 1960s saw 8% annual returns
Not all good things end badly
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/the-...
November 5, 2025 at 4:27 PM
In the 1950s the S&P 500 was up ~500% or almost 20% per year
It's the only mega bull market to end w/a whimper not a bang
There was no crash in the aftermath
The 1960s saw 8% annual returns
Not all good things end badly
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/the-...
It's the only mega bull market to end w/a whimper not a bang
There was no crash in the aftermath
The 1960s saw 8% annual returns
Not all good things end badly
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/the-...
Animal Spirits: Never Go All In on Stocks
A historic melt-up in tech
The case against an AI bubble
Sequence of return risk
Young ppl need to suck it up
AI chart crimes, Michael Saylor & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/anim...
A historic melt-up in tech
The case against an AI bubble
Sequence of return risk
Young ppl need to suck it up
AI chart crimes, Michael Saylor & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/anim...
November 5, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Animal Spirits: Never Go All In on Stocks
A historic melt-up in tech
The case against an AI bubble
Sequence of return risk
Young ppl need to suck it up
AI chart crimes, Michael Saylor & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/anim...
A historic melt-up in tech
The case against an AI bubble
Sequence of return risk
Young ppl need to suck it up
AI chart crimes, Michael Saylor & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/anim...
This is how you macro
November 3, 2025 at 8:16 PM
This is how you macro
How does the tech bull market stack up to history's past melt-ups?
The Dow in the Roaring 20s: +489%
Japn in the 1980s: +510%
The Nasdaq in the 1990s +795%
The Nasdaq 100 over the past 10 years: +512%
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/the-...
The Dow in the Roaring 20s: +489%
Japn in the 1980s: +510%
The Nasdaq in the 1990s +795%
The Nasdaq 100 over the past 10 years: +512%
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/the-...
The Melt-Up - A Wealth of Common Sense
Over the past 10 years the Nasdaq 100 is up almost 20% per year. From the March 2009 lows, the Qs are up 22% per year! That’s more than a decade and a half with annual returns that would make Warren B...
awealthofcommonsense.com
November 3, 2025 at 4:08 PM
How does the tech bull market stack up to history's past melt-ups?
The Dow in the Roaring 20s: +489%
Japn in the 1980s: +510%
The Nasdaq in the 1990s +795%
The Nasdaq 100 over the past 10 years: +512%
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/the-...
The Dow in the Roaring 20s: +489%
Japn in the 1980s: +510%
The Nasdaq in the 1990s +795%
The Nasdaq 100 over the past 10 years: +512%
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/the-...
Will trend following save you if the AI bubble pops?
A closer look at the pros and cons of a trend following strategy:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/tren...
A closer look at the pros and cons of a trend following strategy:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/tren...
Trend Following in a Bubble - A Wealth of Common Sense
How does trendfollowing work?
awealthofcommonsense.com
November 1, 2025 at 2:59 PM
Will trend following save you if the AI bubble pops?
A closer look at the pros and cons of a trend following strategy:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/tren...
A closer look at the pros and cons of a trend following strategy:
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/tren...
The 1990s:
This is a good movie so we'll keep it 1 hr and 37 mins
The 2020s:
This could've been a good movie but we decided to make it 2 hours and 15 mins
This is a good movie so we'll keep it 1 hr and 37 mins
The 2020s:
This could've been a good movie but we decided to make it 2 hours and 15 mins
October 31, 2025 at 3:15 AM
The 1990s:
This is a good movie so we'll keep it 1 hr and 37 mins
The 2020s:
This could've been a good movie but we decided to make it 2 hours and 15 mins
This is a good movie so we'll keep it 1 hr and 37 mins
The 2020s:
This could've been a good movie but we decided to make it 2 hours and 15 mins
For a movie that was trying to be good A House of Dynamite is up there for worst movie endings of all time
Just awful
There should be a warning on Netflix
Just awful
There should be a warning on Netflix
October 31, 2025 at 1:11 AM
For a movie that was trying to be good A House of Dynamite is up there for worst movie endings of all time
Just awful
There should be a warning on Netflix
Just awful
There should be a warning on Netflix
At the lows in April Nvidia's market cap was $2.3 trillion
Today it's >$5.1 trillion
Unreal
Today it's >$5.1 trillion
Unreal
October 29, 2025 at 2:26 PM
At the lows in April Nvidia's market cap was $2.3 trillion
Today it's >$5.1 trillion
Unreal
Today it's >$5.1 trillion
Unreal
Animal Spirits: Never Pay Off Your Mortgage
Can we have a capex bubble w/o a stock market bubble?
How many stocks outperform?
We need lower housing prices
Do retail investors even want private investments?
Americans love eating out & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/anim...
Can we have a capex bubble w/o a stock market bubble?
How many stocks outperform?
We need lower housing prices
Do retail investors even want private investments?
Americans love eating out & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/anim...
October 29, 2025 at 12:54 PM
Animal Spirits: Never Pay Off Your Mortgage
Can we have a capex bubble w/o a stock market bubble?
How many stocks outperform?
We need lower housing prices
Do retail investors even want private investments?
Americans love eating out & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/anim...
Can we have a capex bubble w/o a stock market bubble?
How many stocks outperform?
We need lower housing prices
Do retail investors even want private investments?
Americans love eating out & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/anim...
These were YTD returns as of 4/8/25:
S&P 500 -15.0%
Nasdaq 100 -18.5%
R2000 -20.7%
EAFE -3.5%
EM -7.8%
Now the 2025 YTD returns thru Monday:
S&P 500 +17.9%
Nasdaq 100 +23.3%
R2000 +14.2%
EAFE +28.8%
EM +34.5%
Staying the course worked (again):
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/stay...
S&P 500 -15.0%
Nasdaq 100 -18.5%
R2000 -20.7%
EAFE -3.5%
EM -7.8%
Now the 2025 YTD returns thru Monday:
S&P 500 +17.9%
Nasdaq 100 +23.3%
R2000 +14.2%
EAFE +28.8%
EM +34.5%
Staying the course worked (again):
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/stay...
October 28, 2025 at 5:24 PM
These were YTD returns as of 4/8/25:
S&P 500 -15.0%
Nasdaq 100 -18.5%
R2000 -20.7%
EAFE -3.5%
EM -7.8%
Now the 2025 YTD returns thru Monday:
S&P 500 +17.9%
Nasdaq 100 +23.3%
R2000 +14.2%
EAFE +28.8%
EM +34.5%
Staying the course worked (again):
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/stay...
S&P 500 -15.0%
Nasdaq 100 -18.5%
R2000 -20.7%
EAFE -3.5%
EM -7.8%
Now the 2025 YTD returns thru Monday:
S&P 500 +17.9%
Nasdaq 100 +23.3%
R2000 +14.2%
EAFE +28.8%
EM +34.5%
Staying the course worked (again):
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/stay...
We haven't had a real recession in 196 months
Some questions for the next one:
Will the wealth effect make things worse?
Will young ppl stay invested?
What will happen to illiquid private investments?
Will households ramp up their borrowing?
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/what...
Some questions for the next one:
Will the wealth effect make things worse?
Will young ppl stay invested?
What will happen to illiquid private investments?
Will households ramp up their borrowing?
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/what...
October 27, 2025 at 6:21 PM
We haven't had a real recession in 196 months
Some questions for the next one:
Will the wealth effect make things worse?
Will young ppl stay invested?
What will happen to illiquid private investments?
Will households ramp up their borrowing?
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/what...
Some questions for the next one:
Will the wealth effect make things worse?
Will young ppl stay invested?
What will happen to illiquid private investments?
Will households ramp up their borrowing?
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/what...
How many individual stocks outperform the stock market in a given year?
(more than you think)
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/how-...
(more than you think)
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/how-...
How Many Stocks Outperform the Stock Market? - A Wealth of Common Sense
A reader asks: Could you talk about what percentage of stocks that are beating the S&P over the last 5 years also beat the S&P the 5 years before that? I’m curious what names appear in both lists, wit...
awealthofcommonsense.com
October 23, 2025 at 6:21 PM
How many individual stocks outperform the stock market in a given year?
(more than you think)
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/how-...
(more than you think)
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/how-...
I’m flying to NYC for a couple of days
The pilot just informed us that everyone who enters the city limits is now required to take a picture of the new JP Morgan building and share it on social media
Bonus points if you include a bunch of finance bros in navy vests
The pilot just informed us that everyone who enters the city limits is now required to take a picture of the new JP Morgan building and share it on social media
Bonus points if you include a bunch of finance bros in navy vests
October 23, 2025 at 4:01 PM
I’m flying to NYC for a couple of days
The pilot just informed us that everyone who enters the city limits is now required to take a picture of the new JP Morgan building and share it on social media
Bonus points if you include a bunch of finance bros in navy vests
The pilot just informed us that everyone who enters the city limits is now required to take a picture of the new JP Morgan building and share it on social media
Bonus points if you include a bunch of finance bros in navy vests
Realizing the seat next to you is empty on an airplane is easily one of life’s biggest little joys
October 23, 2025 at 4:00 PM
Realizing the seat next to you is empty on an airplane is easily one of life’s biggest little joys
3 things:
1. New vehicles are really expensive now
2. People under 40 are all in on the stock market
3. Wealth inequality is turning into health inequality
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/3-ch...
1. New vehicles are really expensive now
2. People under 40 are all in on the stock market
3. Wealth inequality is turning into health inequality
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/3-ch...
October 22, 2025 at 2:19 PM
3 things:
1. New vehicles are really expensive now
2. People under 40 are all in on the stock market
3. Wealth inequality is turning into health inequality
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/3-ch...
1. New vehicles are really expensive now
2. People under 40 are all in on the stock market
3. Wealth inequality is turning into health inequality
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/3-ch...
Animal Spirits: The Zero Dollar Club
Everyone thinks AI is a bubble
What would Jesse Livermore think of this market?
The pros & cons of owning gold
Shorting stocks is hard
Will Bitcoin hit $200k by 2027?
Leveraged ETFs are out of control & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/anim...
Everyone thinks AI is a bubble
What would Jesse Livermore think of this market?
The pros & cons of owning gold
Shorting stocks is hard
Will Bitcoin hit $200k by 2027?
Leveraged ETFs are out of control & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/anim...
October 22, 2025 at 12:43 PM
Animal Spirits: The Zero Dollar Club
Everyone thinks AI is a bubble
What would Jesse Livermore think of this market?
The pros & cons of owning gold
Shorting stocks is hard
Will Bitcoin hit $200k by 2027?
Leveraged ETFs are out of control & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/anim...
Everyone thinks AI is a bubble
What would Jesse Livermore think of this market?
The pros & cons of owning gold
Shorting stocks is hard
Will Bitcoin hit $200k by 2027?
Leveraged ETFs are out of control & more
awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/anim...