his name is Pat Spencer

🙂‍↕️ yes

Asterisks abound but - don't use it for analysis.

omg (to the latter)

Sure!

Por que no los dos

(the even shorter version of the story is - on data with a large sample size...like sports...logistic regression almost always has worse calibration plots in my experience)

here's some non-cherry-picked calibration plots using random forest vs logistic regression. no clear winner but I think RF is slightly better.

colab.research.google.com/drive/1thJ3S...

more of the picture they are painting - Logistic Regression's "probability" is usually worse-calibrated than other models.

often times these sorts of "statistical reasons" for using one algo vs another only focus on one aspect of what could make probability calibration better or worse.

Rebounds are pretty height related, threes are a gamble. Overall makes sense though.