Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL)
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aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL)
@aurora.nws-bot.us
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A bot sharing aurora forecast details from the NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center.

This account is unmonitored. Contact @wandrme.paxex.aero if needed.
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aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-21T14:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 21 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 21-Nov 23 2025 is 3.33 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 21-Nov 23 2025 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov 23 00-03UT 3.00 3.33 1.67 03-06UT 2.67 2.67 1.33 06-09UT 0.67 2.33 1.33 09-12UT 1.67 1.67 1.33 12-15UT 3.00 1.33 1.33 15-18UT 2.33 1.33 1.33 18-21UT 2.67 1.33 1.67 21-00UT 2.67 2.00 1.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 21-Nov 23 2025 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov 23 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 21-Nov 23 2025 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov 23 R1-R2 15% 15% 15% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: There exists a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over 21-23 Nov. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 21, 2025 at 2:04 PM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-21T08:04:02Z
Additional Details Here.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 21 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 21-Nov 23 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 21-Nov 23 2025 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov 23 00-03UT 4.00 3.33 1.67 03-06UT 3.67 2.67 1.33 06-09UT 3.00 2.33 1.33 09-12UT 3.00 1.67 1.33 12-15UT 2.33 1.33 1.33 15-18UT 2.33 1.33 1.33 18-21UT 2.67 1.33 1.67 21-00UT 2.67 2.00 1.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 21-Nov 23 2025 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov 23 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 21-Nov 23 2025 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov 23 R1-R2 15% 15% 15% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 21, 2025 at 8:04 AM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-21T02:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 21 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 21-Nov 23 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 21-Nov 23 2025 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov 23 00-03UT 4.00 3.33 1.67 03-06UT 3.67 2.67 1.33 06-09UT 3.00 2.33 1.33 09-12UT 3.00 1.67 1.33 12-15UT 2.33 1.33 1.33 15-18UT 2.33 1.33 1.33 18-21UT 2.67 1.33 1.67 21-00UT 2.67 2.00 1.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 21-Nov 23 2025 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov 23 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 21-Nov 23 2025 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov 23 R1-R2 15% 15% 15% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 21, 2025 at 2:04 AM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-20T23:40:08Z

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2025 Nov 20 2327 UTC
Valid To: 2025 Nov 21 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Additional Details Here.
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04 Serial Number: 5155 Issue Time: 2025 Nov 20 2329 UTC WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Valid From: 2025 Nov 20 2327 UTC Valid To: 2025 Nov 21 1200 UTC Warning Condition: Onset NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska. :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 20 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 20-Nov 22 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 20-Nov 22 2025 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov 22 00-03UT 0.67 4.00 3.33 03-06UT 2.00 3.67 2.67 06-09UT 1.33 3.00 2.33 09-12UT 1.00 3.00 1.67 12-15UT 3.33 2.33 1.33 15-18UT 3.00 2.33 1.33 18-21UT 3.33 2.67 1.33 21-00UT 4.00 2.67 2.00 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 20-Nov 22 2025 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov 22 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 20-Nov 22 2025 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov 22 R1-R2 15% 15% 15% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 20, 2025 at 11:40 PM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-20T20:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 20 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 20-Nov 22 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 20-Nov 22 2025 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov 22 00-03UT 0.67 4.00 3.33 03-06UT 2.00 3.67 2.67 06-09UT 1.33 3.00 2.33 09-12UT 1.00 3.00 1.67 12-15UT 3.33 2.33 1.33 15-18UT 3.00 2.33 1.33 18-21UT 3.33 2.67 1.33 21-00UT 4.00 2.67 2.00 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 20-Nov 22 2025 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov 22 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 20-Nov 22 2025 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov 22 R1-R2 15% 15% 15% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 20, 2025 at 8:04 PM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-20T08:04:02Z
Additional Details Here.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 20 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 20-Nov 22 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 20-Nov 22 2025 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov 22 00-03UT 1.67 4.00 3.33 03-06UT 1.33 3.67 2.67 06-09UT 1.33 3.00 2.33 09-12UT 1.33 3.00 1.67 12-15UT 3.33 2.33 1.33 15-18UT 3.00 2.33 1.33 18-21UT 3.33 2.67 1.33 21-00UT 4.00 2.67 2.00 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 20-Nov 22 2025 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov 22 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 20-Nov 22 2025 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov 22 R1-R2 15% 15% 15% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over 19-21 Nov. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 20, 2025 at 8:04 AM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-20T02:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 20 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 20-Nov 22 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 20-Nov 22 2025 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov 22 00-03UT 1.67 4.00 3.33 03-06UT 1.33 3.67 2.67 06-09UT 1.33 3.00 2.33 09-12UT 1.33 3.00 1.67 12-15UT 3.33 2.33 1.33 15-18UT 3.00 2.33 1.33 18-21UT 3.33 2.67 1.33 21-00UT 4.00 2.67 2.00 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 20-Nov 22 2025 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov 22 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 20-Nov 22 2025 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov 22 R1-R2 15% 15% 15% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over 19-21 Nov. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 20, 2025 at 2:04 AM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-19T20:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 19 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 19-Nov 21 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 19-Nov 21 2025 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov 21 00-03UT 0.67 1.67 2.00 03-06UT 0.33 1.33 1.33 06-09UT 1.00 1.33 1.33 09-12UT 0.67 1.33 2.00 12-15UT 1.33 1.33 2.33 15-18UT 1.33 1.33 3.00 18-21UT 1.67 1.67 3.33 21-00UT 1.67 1.67 4.00 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 19-Nov 21 2025 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov 21 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 19-Nov 21 2025 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov 21 R1-R2 15% 15% 15% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: A slight chance exists for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to isolated M-class flare activity will persit through 21 Nov due to the flare potential presented by AR 4284. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 19, 2025 at 8:04 PM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-19T14:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 19 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 19-Nov 21 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 19-Nov 21 2025 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov 21 00-03UT 0.67 1.67 2.00 03-06UT 0.33 1.33 1.33 06-09UT 1.00 1.33 1.33 09-12UT 0.67 1.33 2.00 12-15UT 1.33 1.33 2.33 15-18UT 1.33 1.33 3.00 18-21UT 1.67 1.67 3.33 21-00UT 1.67 1.67 4.00 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 19-Nov 21 2025 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov 21 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 19-Nov 21 2025 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov 21 R1-R2 15% 15% 15% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: A slight chance exists for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to isolated M-class flare activity will persit through 21 Nov due to the flare potential presented by AR 4284. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 19, 2025 at 2:04 PM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-19T08:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 19 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 19-Nov 21 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 19-Nov 21 2025 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov 21 00-03UT 1.67 1.67 2.00 03-06UT 1.33 1.33 1.33 06-09UT 1.33 1.33 1.33 09-12UT 1.33 1.33 2.00 12-15UT 1.33 1.33 2.33 15-18UT 1.33 1.33 3.00 18-21UT 1.67 1.67 3.33 21-00UT 1.67 1.67 4.00 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 19-Nov 21 2025 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov 21 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 19-Nov 21 2025 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov 21 R1-R2 15% 15% 15% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: A slight chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to isolated M-class flare activity will persit through 21 Nov due to the flare potential presented by AR 4284. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 19, 2025 at 8:04 AM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-19T02:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 19 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 19-Nov 21 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 19-Nov 21 2025 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov 21 00-03UT 1.67 1.67 2.00 03-06UT 1.33 1.33 1.33 06-09UT 1.33 1.33 1.33 09-12UT 1.33 1.33 2.00 12-15UT 1.33 1.33 2.33 15-18UT 1.33 1.33 3.00 18-21UT 1.67 1.67 3.33 21-00UT 1.67 1.67 4.00 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 19-Nov 21 2025 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov 21 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 19-Nov 21 2025 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov 21 R1-R2 15% 15% 15% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: A slight chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to isolated M-class flare activity will persit through 21 Nov due to the flare potential presented by AR 4284. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 19, 2025 at 2:04 AM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-18T20:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 18 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 18-Nov 20 2025 is 3.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 18-Nov 20 2025 Nov 18 Nov 19 Nov 20 00-03UT 2.67 2.67 3.00 03-06UT 2.00 2.00 2.33 06-09UT 2.00 2.33 2.00 09-12UT 0.67 2.33 1.67 12-15UT 2.33 2.33 1.33 15-18UT 2.33 2.33 1.33 18-21UT 2.33 2.33 2.00 21-00UT 2.00 2.67 2.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 18-Nov 20 2025 Nov 18 Nov 19 Nov 20 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 18-Nov 20 2025 Nov 18 Nov 19 Nov 20 R1-R2 15% 15% 15% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to isolated M-class flare activity will persit through 20 Nov due to the flare potential presented by AR 4284. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 18, 2025 at 8:04 PM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-18T14:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 18 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 18-Nov 20 2025 is 3.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 18-Nov 20 2025 Nov 18 Nov 19 Nov 20 00-03UT 2.67 2.67 3.00 03-06UT 2.00 2.00 2.33 06-09UT 2.00 2.33 2.00 09-12UT 0.67 2.33 1.67 12-15UT 2.33 2.33 1.33 15-18UT 2.33 2.33 1.33 18-21UT 2.33 2.33 2.00 21-00UT 2.00 2.67 2.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 18-Nov 20 2025 Nov 18 Nov 19 Nov 20 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 18-Nov 20 2025 Nov 18 Nov 19 Nov 20 R1-R2 15% 15% 15% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to isolated M-class flare activity will persit through 20 Nov due to the flare potential presented by AR 4284. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 18, 2025 at 2:04 PM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-18T08:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 18 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 18-Nov 20 2025 is 3.67 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 18-Nov 20 2025 Nov 18 Nov 19 Nov 20 00-03UT 3.67 2.67 3.00 03-06UT 3.67 2.00 2.33 06-09UT 3.00 2.33 2.00 09-12UT 2.67 2.33 1.67 12-15UT 2.33 2.33 1.33 15-18UT 2.33 2.33 1.33 18-21UT 2.33 2.33 2.00 21-00UT 2.00 2.67 2.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 18-Nov 20 2025 Nov 18 Nov 19 Nov 20 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 18-Nov 20 2025 Nov 18 Nov 19 Nov 20 R1-R2 15% 15% 15% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: A slight chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to isolated M-class flare activity will persit through 20 Nov due to the flare potential presented by AR 4284. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 18, 2025 at 8:04 AM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-18T02:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 18 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 18-Nov 20 2025 is 3.67 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 18-Nov 20 2025 Nov 18 Nov 19 Nov 20 00-03UT 3.67 2.67 3.00 03-06UT 3.67 2.00 2.33 06-09UT 3.00 2.33 2.00 09-12UT 2.67 2.33 1.67 12-15UT 2.33 2.33 1.33 15-18UT 2.33 2.33 1.33 18-21UT 2.33 2.33 2.00 21-00UT 2.00 2.67 2.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 18-Nov 20 2025 Nov 18 Nov 19 Nov 20 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 18-Nov 20 2025 Nov 18 Nov 19 Nov 20 R1-R2 15% 15% 15% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: A slight chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to isolated M-class flare activity will persit through 20 Nov due to the flare potential presented by AR 4284. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 18, 2025 at 2:04 AM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-18T00:00:03Z

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5153
Valid From: 2025 Nov 15 2000 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Nov 18 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Additional Details Here.
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04 Serial Number: 5154 Issue Time: 2025 Nov 17 2355 UTC EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Extension to Serial Number: 5153 Valid From: 2025 Nov 15 2000 UTC Now Valid Until: 2025 Nov 18 0600 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence Comment: WC NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska. :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 17 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 17-Nov 19 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 17-Nov 19 2025 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov 19 00-03UT 4.00 3.00 2.67 03-06UT 3.00 3.67 2.00 06-09UT 2.67 3.00 2.33 09-12UT 1.33 2.67 2.33 12-15UT 4.00 2.33 2.33 15-18UT 3.00 2.33 2.33 18-21UT 3.67 2.33 2.33 21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 2.00 2.67 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are possible on 17 Nov due to coronal hole influence. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 17-Nov 19 2025 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov 19 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 17-Nov 19 2025 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov 19 R1-R2 15% 15% 10% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: There exists a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over 17-19 Nov. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 18, 2025 at 12:00 AM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-17T20:04:02Z
Additional Details Here.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 17 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 17-Nov 19 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 17-Nov 19 2025 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov 19 00-03UT 4.00 3.00 2.67 03-06UT 3.00 3.67 2.00 06-09UT 2.67 3.00 2.33 09-12UT 1.33 2.67 2.33 12-15UT 4.00 2.33 2.33 15-18UT 3.00 2.33 2.33 18-21UT 3.67 2.33 2.33 21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 2.00 2.67 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are possible on 17 Nov due to coronal hole influence. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 17-Nov 19 2025 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov 19 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 17-Nov 19 2025 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov 19 R1-R2 15% 15% 10% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: There exists a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over 17-19 Nov. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 17, 2025 at 8:04 PM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-17T14:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 17 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 17-Nov 19 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 17-Nov 19 2025 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov 19 00-03UT 4.00 3.00 2.67 03-06UT 3.00 3.67 2.00 06-09UT 2.67 3.00 2.33 09-12UT 1.33 2.67 2.33 12-15UT 4.00 2.33 2.33 15-18UT 3.00 2.33 2.33 18-21UT 3.67 2.33 2.33 21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 2.00 2.67 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are possible on 17 Nov due to coronal hole influence. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 17-Nov 19 2025 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov 19 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 17-Nov 19 2025 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov 19 R1-R2 15% 15% 10% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: There exists a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over 17-19 Nov. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 17, 2025 at 2:04 PM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-17T10:50:55Z

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5152
Valid From: 2025 Nov 15 2000 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Nov 17 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Additional Details Here.
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04 Serial Number: 5153 Issue Time: 2025 Nov 17 1047 UTC EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Extension to Serial Number: 5152 Valid From: 2025 Nov 15 2000 UTC Now Valid Until: 2025 Nov 17 2359 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska. :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 17 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 17-Nov 19 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 17-Nov 19 2025 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov 19 00-03UT 3.67 3.00 2.67 03-06UT 4.67 (G1) 3.67 2.00 06-09UT 4.00 3.00 2.33 09-12UT 3.67 2.67 2.33 12-15UT 3.33 2.33 2.33 15-18UT 3.33 2.33 2.33 18-21UT 3.00 2.33 2.33 21-00UT 3.00 2.00 2.67 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely over 17 Nov due to a combination of a influence from a CME that left the Sun on 14 Nov and the anticipated influence of a negative polarity coronal hole. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 17-Nov 19 2025 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov 19 S1 or greater 10% 1% 1% Rationale: There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms over 17 Nov due to potential from Region 4274 as it rotates further around the Suns W limb. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 16 2025 0817 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 17-Nov 19 2025 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov 19 R1-R2 55% 20% 10% R3 or greater 15% 1% 1% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 17 Nov due to the flare potential from Region 4274 just beyond the the Suns W limb. Only a slight chance remains for R1 events by 19 Nov. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 17, 2025 at 10:50 AM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-17T08:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 17 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 17-Nov 19 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 17-Nov 19 2025 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov 19 00-03UT 3.67 3.00 2.67 03-06UT 4.67 (G1) 3.67 2.00 06-09UT 4.00 3.00 2.33 09-12UT 3.67 2.67 2.33 12-15UT 3.33 2.33 2.33 15-18UT 3.33 2.33 2.33 18-21UT 3.00 2.33 2.33 21-00UT 3.00 2.00 2.67 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely over 17 Nov due to a combination of a influence from a CME that left the Sun on 14 Nov and the anticipated influence of a negative polarity coronal hole. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 17-Nov 19 2025 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov 19 S1 or greater 10% 1% 1% Rationale: There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms over 17 Nov due to potential from Region 4274 as it rotates further around the Suns W limb. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 16 2025 0817 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 17-Nov 19 2025 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov 19 R1-R2 55% 20% 10% R3 or greater 15% 1% 1% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 17 Nov due to the flare potential from Region 4274 just beyond the the Suns W limb. Only a slight chance remains for R1 events by 19 Nov. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 17, 2025 at 8:04 AM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-17T02:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 17 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 17-Nov 19 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 17-Nov 19 2025 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov 19 00-03UT 3.67 3.00 2.67 03-06UT 4.67 (G1) 3.67 2.00 06-09UT 4.00 3.00 2.33 09-12UT 3.67 2.67 2.33 12-15UT 3.33 2.33 2.33 15-18UT 3.33 2.33 2.33 18-21UT 3.00 2.33 2.33 21-00UT 3.00 2.00 2.67 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely over 17 Nov due to a combination of a influence from a CME that left the Sun on 14 Nov and the anticipated influence of a negative polarity coronal hole. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 17-Nov 19 2025 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov 19 S1 or greater 10% 1% 1% Rationale: There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms over 17 Nov due to potential from Region 4274 as it rotates further around the Suns W limb. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 16 2025 0817 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 17-Nov 19 2025 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov 19 R1-R2 55% 20% 10% R3 or greater 15% 1% 1% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 17 Nov due to the flare potential from Region 4274 just beyond the the Suns W limb. Only a slight chance remains for R1 events by 19 Nov. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 17, 2025 at 2:04 AM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-16T22:21:14Z

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 5151
Valid From: 2025 Nov 15 2000 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2025 Nov 17 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Additional Details Here.
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04 Serial Number: 5152 Issue Time: 2025 Nov 16 2217 UTC EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Extension to Serial Number: 5151 Valid From: 2025 Nov 15 2000 UTC Now Valid Until: 2025 Nov 17 1200 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska. :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 16 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 00-03UT 3.67 3.67 3.00 03-06UT 3.33 4.67 (G1) 3.67 06-09UT 2.67 4.00 3.00 09-12UT 3.33 3.67 2.67 12-15UT 2.33 3.33 2.33 15-18UT 3.00 3.33 2.33 18-21UT 3.67 3.00 2.33 21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 3.00 2.00 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely over 16-17 Nov due to a combination of a influence from a CME that left the Sun on 14 Nov and the anticipated influence of a negative polarity coronal hole. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 S1 or greater 15% 10% 5% Rationale: There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms over 16-17 Nov due to potential from Region 4274 as it rotates further around the Suns W limb. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 16 2025 0817 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 R1-R2 60% 55% 20% R3 or greater 15% 15% 1% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 16-17 Nov due o the flare potential from Region 4274 just beyond the the Suns W limb. Only a slight chance remains for R1 events by 18 Nov. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 16, 2025 at 10:21 PM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-16T20:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 16 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 00-03UT 3.67 3.67 3.00 03-06UT 3.33 4.67 (G1) 3.67 06-09UT 2.67 4.00 3.00 09-12UT 3.33 3.67 2.67 12-15UT 2.33 3.33 2.33 15-18UT 3.00 3.33 2.33 18-21UT 3.67 3.00 2.33 21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 3.00 2.00 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely over 16-17 Nov due to a combination of a influence from a CME that left the Sun on 14 Nov and the anticipated influence of a negative polarity coronal hole. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 S1 or greater 15% 10% 5% Rationale: There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms over 16-17 Nov due to potential from Region 4274 as it rotates further around the Suns W limb. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 16 2025 0817 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 R1-R2 60% 55% 20% R3 or greater 15% 15% 1% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 16-17 Nov due o the flare potential from Region 4274 just beyond the the Suns W limb. Only a slight chance remains for R1 events by 18 Nov. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 16, 2025 at 8:04 PM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-16T14:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 16 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 00-03UT 3.67 3.67 3.00 03-06UT 3.33 4.67 (G1) 3.67 06-09UT 2.67 4.00 3.00 09-12UT 3.33 3.67 2.67 12-15UT 2.33 3.33 2.33 15-18UT 3.00 3.33 2.33 18-21UT 3.67 3.00 2.33 21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 3.00 2.00 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely over 16-17 Nov due to a combination of a influence from a CME that left the Sun on 14 Nov and the anticipated influence of a negative polarity coronal hole. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 S1 or greater 15% 10% 5% Rationale: There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms over 16-17 Nov due to potential from Region 4274 as it rotates further around the Suns W limb. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 16 2025 0817 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 R1-R2 60% 55% 20% R3 or greater 15% 15% 1% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 16-17 Nov due o the flare potential from Region 4274 just beyond the the Suns W limb. Only a slight chance remains for R1 events by 18 Nov. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 16, 2025 at 2:04 PM
aurora.nws-bot.us
Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-16T08:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 16 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 00-03UT 3.67 3.67 3.00 03-06UT 1.67 4.67 (G1) 3.67 06-09UT 1.33 4.00 3.00 09-12UT 1.33 3.67 2.67 12-15UT 2.00 3.33 2.33 15-18UT 2.00 3.33 2.33 18-21UT 3.33 3.00 2.33 21-00UT 5.00 (G1) 3.00 2.00 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely over 16-17 Nov due to the anticipated influence of a negative polarity coronal hole. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 S1 or greater 15% 10% 5% Rationale: There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms over 16-17 Nov due to the eruptive potential from Region 4274. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 16-Nov 18 2025 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov 18 R1-R2 60% 55% 40% R3 or greater 20% 15% 5% Rationale: R1 (Minor) radio blackouts are likely, with a chance for R3 (Strong), over 16-17 Nov due to the flare potential from Region 4274. By 18 Nov, there is a chance for R1 (Minor) radio blackouts due to the flare potential from Region 4274. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood. Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.
November 16, 2025 at 8:04 AM