Atticus Hawk
@atticushawk.bsky.social
Gestalt thinker with a conscience. My opinions are just words but they are backed by a fair degree of fact finding, analysis and real world experience.
They haven’t got 360k troops in Belarus. Russia maintains a standing force of roughly 100k there, which combines with the local army (very poor quality) to total 360k. They are kept from the Ukr front because they are just conscripted or children of important people - not good fighting stock.
December 18, 2025 at 8:58 AM
They haven’t got 360k troops in Belarus. Russia maintains a standing force of roughly 100k there, which combines with the local army (very poor quality) to total 360k. They are kept from the Ukr front because they are just conscripted or children of important people - not good fighting stock.
It has always been about watching and waiting with the Russian economy, along with the cohesiveness of the RF under economic pressure. I’m still hopeful that it implodes in 5/6 months but if it ekes out then it will become only more obvious that Ukraine is winning. That will keep them fighting.
December 18, 2025 at 8:47 AM
It has always been about watching and waiting with the Russian economy, along with the cohesiveness of the RF under economic pressure. I’m still hopeful that it implodes in 5/6 months but if it ekes out then it will become only more obvious that Ukraine is winning. That will keep them fighting.
It’ll take about 10-15 years for that bloat, plus the decline of their export market to begin to rip the heart out of American military power. I suspect that it’ll become a political football in 5-7.
December 18, 2025 at 8:32 AM
It’ll take about 10-15 years for that bloat, plus the decline of their export market to begin to rip the heart out of American military power. I suspect that it’ll become a political football in 5-7.
On the mark. I think that Putin has now got to a situation where he has to back down, but he wont. No matter how “interesting” things get with the Americans over the next few months, Ukraine is just watching the clock tick and holding its territory as much as it can without sustaining big losses.
December 17, 2025 at 6:45 PM
On the mark. I think that Putin has now got to a situation where he has to back down, but he wont. No matter how “interesting” things get with the Americans over the next few months, Ukraine is just watching the clock tick and holding its territory as much as it can without sustaining big losses.
Understood, only Defence is not a profit centre. It is a risk management strategy and emergency process that requires careful planning. Europe is in this mess precisely because it is trying to manage cost as a priority. The priority is that we dont get attacked due to being seen as vulnerable.
December 16, 2025 at 1:56 PM
Understood, only Defence is not a profit centre. It is a risk management strategy and emergency process that requires careful planning. Europe is in this mess precisely because it is trying to manage cost as a priority. The priority is that we dont get attacked due to being seen as vulnerable.
The are still working on the shared production model. They need to operate a capacity production model where each country does end to end build around common design. One hit on any factory using the current model halts ALL production.
December 16, 2025 at 11:13 AM
The are still working on the shared production model. They need to operate a capacity production model where each country does end to end build around common design. One hit on any factory using the current model halts ALL production.
I’m guessing Trump’s answer would be to burn immigrants to power the electricity turbines?
December 13, 2025 at 4:50 PM
I’m guessing Trump’s answer would be to burn immigrants to power the electricity turbines?
Marv, please. It’s a subject I’ve studied for almost 50 years. All I’ve states is that I believe after all that reading that by 1937 Hitler was becoming compelled to act in the East because of the impending economic failure. East because he saw them as Untermenshen and so replaceable w/o conscience.
December 11, 2025 at 7:30 PM
Marv, please. It’s a subject I’ve studied for almost 50 years. All I’ve states is that I believe after all that reading that by 1937 Hitler was becoming compelled to act in the East because of the impending economic failure. East because he saw them as Untermenshen and so replaceable w/o conscience.
I agree that this was a huge factor, probably almost as much the economic imperative.
December 11, 2025 at 7:05 PM
I agree that this was a huge factor, probably almost as much the economic imperative.
I agree that it is multi-faceted but I tend towards the economic argument slightly more than the race one (not to deny that Aryanism wasnt a powerful force). German collapse was economic and spiritual. Hitler defo blamed the Jews but Lebensraum was about economics not race or political ideology.
December 11, 2025 at 1:40 PM
I agree that it is multi-faceted but I tend towards the economic argument slightly more than the race one (not to deny that Aryanism wasnt a powerful force). German collapse was economic and spiritual. Hitler defo blamed the Jews but Lebensraum was about economics not race or political ideology.
So few people realise that this was the true cause of WW2…
December 11, 2025 at 9:27 AM
So few people realise that this was the true cause of WW2…
Leadership can still be innovation… ask those who have ever taken a killer idea to an uncreative financier.
December 9, 2025 at 7:08 PM
Leadership can still be innovation… ask those who have ever taken a killer idea to an uncreative financier.
I hope that the only people who end up buying a Tesla only do so in order to give me a target for my eggs. I used to love the idea of owning a Tesla… Musk was an innovator and a creator… now he’s just another rich twat who needs his head slapped so hard that Mars would be a probable landing zone.
December 9, 2025 at 6:58 PM
I hope that the only people who end up buying a Tesla only do so in order to give me a target for my eggs. I used to love the idea of owning a Tesla… Musk was an innovator and a creator… now he’s just another rich twat who needs his head slapped so hard that Mars would be a probable landing zone.
Everything written in the Russian press is, and always has been, with the purpose of lying to the Russian people. If Russia opens two more fronts then their casualty levels will rise dramatically without any meaningful gain. I doubt it will happen.
December 9, 2025 at 6:47 PM
Everything written in the Russian press is, and always has been, with the purpose of lying to the Russian people. If Russia opens two more fronts then their casualty levels will rise dramatically without any meaningful gain. I doubt it will happen.
At $40pb, Russia is looking at a $4-6 loss per barrel. This is important for more reasons than just the impact on the oil co’s. This is hard currency they don’t have… gold sales will accelerate and $ on the street will push inflation into to ‘00s% from its current 30% - it’s winter 1993 again.
December 9, 2025 at 9:50 AM
At $40pb, Russia is looking at a $4-6 loss per barrel. This is important for more reasons than just the impact on the oil co’s. This is hard currency they don’t have… gold sales will accelerate and $ on the street will push inflation into to ‘00s% from its current 30% - it’s winter 1993 again.
Thought you might like to see this… apparently recorded by the Israeli’s during Kushner’s visit to Moscow… t.me/c/1301972598...
Telegram
t.me
December 8, 2025 at 7:41 PM
Thought you might like to see this… apparently recorded by the Israeli’s during Kushner’s visit to Moscow… t.me/c/1301972598...
The one who tells his army to “Kill ‘em all” when there is no evidence and no due process, and where what they are accused of does not carry the death penalty even if they were found to be guilty.
December 8, 2025 at 5:46 PM
The one who tells his army to “Kill ‘em all” when there is no evidence and no due process, and where what they are accused of does not carry the death penalty even if they were found to be guilty.
…especially in the far flung regions, which was why I made reference to Russias scale and the population dispersal. Russia’s economic woes may well be the straw on the camel’s back, especially when widows get paid in potatoes. Regional leaders will fear the future and start to become autonomous.
December 8, 2025 at 10:52 AM
…especially in the far flung regions, which was why I made reference to Russias scale and the population dispersal. Russia’s economic woes may well be the straw on the camel’s back, especially when widows get paid in potatoes. Regional leaders will fear the future and start to become autonomous.
I dont disagree with the fact that the bar is set very high for public revolt against autocrats, especially when they have been proven to be brutal in managing uprisings, and doubly so when they have to peasant-level tolerance of your typical Russian. I feel that 1-1.5M casualties might do it…
December 8, 2025 at 10:50 AM
I dont disagree with the fact that the bar is set very high for public revolt against autocrats, especially when they have been proven to be brutal in managing uprisings, and doubly so when they have to peasant-level tolerance of your typical Russian. I feel that 1-1.5M casualties might do it…
Furthermore, in NK about 40% of the population live within 100 miles of the capital. In Russia it’s just over 10%. Control for Russia is way more difficult to achieve, especially the way that it treats its provinces - the majority of war casualties are from the distant regions.
December 8, 2025 at 9:20 AM
Furthermore, in NK about 40% of the population live within 100 miles of the capital. In Russia it’s just over 10%. Control for Russia is way more difficult to achieve, especially the way that it treats its provinces - the majority of war casualties are from the distant regions.
Headline: “Zelensky disappointed Trump hasn’t read US Constitution, or any US history books from the last 80 years”.
December 8, 2025 at 9:06 AM
Headline: “Zelensky disappointed Trump hasn’t read US Constitution, or any US history books from the last 80 years”.
I was waiting for a surprise tank attack. I mentioned before that a couple of blitzkrieg moves might put Russia on the back foot. Their supply lines are so weak that Ukraine could perform devastating hit and run at Brigade scale and I think it might panic the Russian command.
December 8, 2025 at 9:00 AM
I was waiting for a surprise tank attack. I mentioned before that a couple of blitzkrieg moves might put Russia on the back foot. Their supply lines are so weak that Ukraine could perform devastating hit and run at Brigade scale and I think it might panic the Russian command.
North Korea is half of one state. Russia is a federation of states… The distance from Pyongyang to the furthest reaches of NK is less than Moscow to Kazan. It’s an entirely different situation. The ‘Stans are already realigning.
December 8, 2025 at 8:58 AM
North Korea is half of one state. Russia is a federation of states… The distance from Pyongyang to the furthest reaches of NK is less than Moscow to Kazan. It’s an entirely different situation. The ‘Stans are already realigning.
It starts with removing the murderous president and then moves on. If you don’t get that then you are just one of those failed voters who enables him. Get him out, then worry about who the candidates are.
December 7, 2025 at 7:21 AM
It starts with removing the murderous president and then moves on. If you don’t get that then you are just one of those failed voters who enables him. Get him out, then worry about who the candidates are.
Whilst you are right, and right to call it out, the whole media industry needs intervention. A handful of people now control almost all access to media, and they are the ones behind this monstrosity of an administration. Go after them and you might just stand a chance of having a democratic future.
December 6, 2025 at 6:31 PM
Whilst you are right, and right to call it out, the whole media industry needs intervention. A handful of people now control almost all access to media, and they are the ones behind this monstrosity of an administration. Go after them and you might just stand a chance of having a democratic future.