Stephen Young
@atomicwonk.bsky.social
Advocate for more sensible nuclear weapons policies, firm believer that we should not live in a world where hundreds of millions could be dead in an hour. Associate Director for Government Affairs, Global Security Program, Union of Concerned Scientists
"Because of other countries testing programs" President Trump ordered the Pentagon "to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis". Normally, testing nuclear weapons refers to explosive testing of a nuclear weapon, something the US has not done at full scale since 1992.
October 30, 2025 at 2:34 AM
"Because of other countries testing programs" President Trump ordered the Pentagon "to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis". Normally, testing nuclear weapons refers to explosive testing of a nuclear weapon, something the US has not done at full scale since 1992.
Finally, the key takeaways. They are extremely modest. In short, they conclude that "only the higher employment scenarios" are likely to inject significant material into the stratosphere enough to impact globally.
June 25, 2025 at 5:33 PM
Finally, the key takeaways. They are extremely modest. In short, they conclude that "only the higher employment scenarios" are likely to inject significant material into the stratosphere enough to impact globally.
Societal impact again talks about could "impact essential ecosystem services"
June 25, 2025 at 5:29 PM
Societal impact again talks about could "impact essential ecosystem services"
Ditto for impacts of nuclear use on ecosystems - it "could significantly impact" ecosystems, but no specifics described yet.
June 25, 2025 at 5:27 PM
Ditto for impacts of nuclear use on ecosystems - it "could significantly impact" ecosystems, but no specifics described yet.
Study on physical impacts also led to a call for more study rather than specific findings on those impacts - at least so far in this presentation!
June 25, 2025 at 5:25 PM
Study on physical impacts also led to a call for more study rather than specific findings on those impacts - at least so far in this presentation!
It calls for more detailed understanding of the plume rises and aerosol impacts.
June 25, 2025 at 5:22 PM
It calls for more detailed understanding of the plume rises and aerosol impacts.
It is widely known that the models the military uses to estimate casualties from nuclear use does NOT include consideration of fires started by nuclear use. The NAS concludes there WILL BE huge fires, but asks the government to do more study to estimate the results of those fires. It did not assess.
June 25, 2025 at 5:20 PM
It is widely known that the models the military uses to estimate casualties from nuclear use does NOT include consideration of fires started by nuclear use. The NAS concludes there WILL BE huge fires, but asks the government to do more study to estimate the results of those fires. It did not assess.
These are the scenarios they looked at, from a massive exchange to smaller and smaller uses, down to a single explosion.
June 25, 2025 at 5:17 PM
These are the scenarios they looked at, from a massive exchange to smaller and smaller uses, down to a single explosion.
That classified version was released previously. Today they are releasing the unclassified version, e.g, their key finds. Note they did NOT look at impact of fallout on humans or the environment! But here is what they did:
June 25, 2025 at 5:15 PM
That classified version was released previously. Today they are releasing the unclassified version, e.g, their key finds. Note they did NOT look at impact of fallout on humans or the environment! But here is what they did:
My sign today for Hands Across Arlington. So much warmth and generosity and humor among the thousands out today, along with some righteous anger. #NoKings
June 15, 2025 at 2:56 AM
My sign today for Hands Across Arlington. So much warmth and generosity and humor among the thousands out today, along with some righteous anger. #NoKings
My irises in all their glory! #flowerpower
April 21, 2025 at 11:26 PM
My irises in all their glory! #flowerpower
From Reuters on the NNSA firings - apparently some people were reinstated. I would guess the people who worked on nuclear weapons were brought back & the people who work on nonproliferation were not, because they think it is better to threaten others with death than prevent death, but what do I know
February 14, 2025 at 8:00 PM
From Reuters on the NNSA firings - apparently some people were reinstated. I would guess the people who worked on nuclear weapons were brought back & the people who work on nonproliferation were not, because they think it is better to threaten others with death than prevent death, but what do I know
Here's a screen grab - 235 were fired, but the layoffs were "partially rescinded."
February 14, 2025 at 7:53 PM
Here's a screen grab - 235 were fired, but the layoffs were "partially rescinded."
Belated but true!
January 21, 2025 at 5:06 PM
Belated but true!
On Jan. 6, 2021, with the Trump-inspired riot rampaging in the US Capitol, Vice President Pence escaped, followed as always by his nuclear football, which can be used to launch a nuclear strike should the president be out of contact/disabled. You can see the football here, with Pence just visible.
January 7, 2025 at 1:50 AM
On Jan. 6, 2021, with the Trump-inspired riot rampaging in the US Capitol, Vice President Pence escaped, followed as always by his nuclear football, which can be used to launch a nuclear strike should the president be out of contact/disabled. You can see the football here, with Pence just visible.
Here is the full text of the nuclear top-line:
October 31, 2024 at 2:21 PM
Here is the full text of the nuclear top-line:
“I have been asked whether in the years to come it will be possible to kill 40 million American people in the 20 largest American towns by the use of atomic bombs in a single night. I'm afraid that the answer to that question is yes.”
- Robert Oppenheimer, speaking in 1950.
- Robert Oppenheimer, speaking in 1950.
August 28, 2024 at 2:34 PM
“I have been asked whether in the years to come it will be possible to kill 40 million American people in the 20 largest American towns by the use of atomic bombs in a single night. I'm afraid that the answer to that question is yes.”
- Robert Oppenheimer, speaking in 1950.
- Robert Oppenheimer, speaking in 1950.
My eclipse picture!
April 8, 2024 at 7:49 PM
My eclipse picture!
This is wonderful news!
March 7, 2024 at 8:42 PM
This is wonderful news!
The FY24 NDAA, just released, includes $52M for the B61-13, even though neither the House nor the Senate actually voted for it. It just got snuck into the bill by agreement of the conferees. The report with the money is here: docs.house.gov/billsthiswee...
December 7, 2023 at 4:14 PM
The FY24 NDAA, just released, includes $52M for the B61-13, even though neither the House nor the Senate actually voted for it. It just got snuck into the bill by agreement of the conferees. The report with the money is here: docs.house.gov/billsthiswee...
1e. But, while it doesn't mention the B61-13, it is notable that the timeline for the B61-12 has shortened, when you compare the FY23 SSMP schedule to the FY24 SSMP. The former ends at the end of FY25, the latter about 1/4 of a year earlier. See here, FY24 on the left, FY23 on the right.
November 27, 2023 at 9:24 PM
1e. But, while it doesn't mention the B61-13, it is notable that the timeline for the B61-12 has shortened, when you compare the FY23 SSMP schedule to the FY24 SSMP. The former ends at the end of FY25, the latter about 1/4 of a year earlier. See here, FY24 on the left, FY23 on the right.
If that is the outcome, that the Biden administration can now make a plan to retire the B83, I guess this isn't the worst outcome. But if so, why not actually link the two? The DOD fact sheet just says the -13 is an "additional option" while they "work" to retire the B83.
November 12, 2023 at 10:14 PM
If that is the outcome, that the Biden administration can now make a plan to retire the B83, I guess this isn't the worst outcome. But if so, why not actually link the two? The DOD fact sheet just says the -13 is an "additional option" while they "work" to retire the B83.
But, as noted above, @nukestrat.bsky.social & @mattkorda.bsky.social say it is really intended to allow retirement of the B61-13, to appease some faction somewhere that wants to hold on to massively destructive bombs that spew fallout across the globe.
November 12, 2023 at 10:10 PM
But, as noted above, @nukestrat.bsky.social & @mattkorda.bsky.social say it is really intended to allow retirement of the B61-13, to appease some faction somewhere that wants to hold on to massively destructive bombs that spew fallout across the globe.
Things changed again once the Biden administration completed its Nuclear Posture Review, which called for retiring the B83 full stop without any linkage to the B61-12. However, there was no timeline or plan for the retirement. Full text here: s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23...
November 10, 2023 at 4:26 PM
Things changed again once the Biden administration completed its Nuclear Posture Review, which called for retiring the B83 full stop without any linkage to the B61-12. However, there was no timeline or plan for the retirement. Full text here: s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23...