Antônio Sampaio
@antoniosamp.bsky.social
Independent researcher and PhD candidate at the War Studies Department, King's College London. Focused on urban safety, violence prevention, crime and conflict. Previously Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, IISS. Former journalist.
In a new report, I examine the ways in which climate change is increasing organised crime in cities. I cover three areas:
- Human trafficking in rural-to-urban migration;
- Water scarcity and mafias;
- Land grab, illegal construction and corruption
globalinitiative.net/analysis/a-c...
- Human trafficking in rural-to-urban migration;
- Water scarcity and mafias;
- Land grab, illegal construction and corruption
globalinitiative.net/analysis/a-c...
A climate of insecurity: Climate change and organized crime in cities
This report examines the intersection of climate change and organized crime in cities. The relationship between these issues is a critical area for policy and programming in governments and multilater...
globalinitiative.net
January 22, 2026 at 1:09 PM
In a new report, I examine the ways in which climate change is increasing organised crime in cities. I cover three areas:
- Human trafficking in rural-to-urban migration;
- Water scarcity and mafias;
- Land grab, illegal construction and corruption
globalinitiative.net/analysis/a-c...
- Human trafficking in rural-to-urban migration;
- Water scarcity and mafias;
- Land grab, illegal construction and corruption
globalinitiative.net/analysis/a-c...
Got my hands on the physical version of this important book - a must-read for everyone trying to understand the vulnerability of urban communities to long-term patterns of violence. @stanleycenter.org
January 16, 2026 at 8:49 AM
Got my hands on the physical version of this important book - a must-read for everyone trying to understand the vulnerability of urban communities to long-term patterns of violence. @stanleycenter.org
My goodness.
Words of Stephen Miller, influential Trump adviser:
“We live in a world, in the real world, Jake, that is governed by strength, that is governed by force, that is governed by power (…)These are the iron laws of the world since the beginning of time.”
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/u...
Words of Stephen Miller, influential Trump adviser:
“We live in a world, in the real world, Jake, that is governed by strength, that is governed by force, that is governed by power (…)These are the iron laws of the world since the beginning of time.”
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/u...
Stephen Miller Asserts U.S. Has Right to Take Greenland
www.nytimes.com
January 6, 2026 at 10:37 AM
My goodness.
Words of Stephen Miller, influential Trump adviser:
“We live in a world, in the real world, Jake, that is governed by strength, that is governed by force, that is governed by power (…)These are the iron laws of the world since the beginning of time.”
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/u...
Words of Stephen Miller, influential Trump adviser:
“We live in a world, in the real world, Jake, that is governed by strength, that is governed by force, that is governed by power (…)These are the iron laws of the world since the beginning of time.”
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/u...
Interesting that in The Atlantic interview Trump says the ‘Donroe’ doctrine - kidnap threat against heads of state that displease him - is not restricted to Western hemisphere.
It applies to any country that he decides it should.
It applies to any country that he decides it should.
January 5, 2026 at 6:22 AM
Interesting that in The Atlantic interview Trump says the ‘Donroe’ doctrine - kidnap threat against heads of state that displease him - is not restricted to Western hemisphere.
It applies to any country that he decides it should.
It applies to any country that he decides it should.
If Trump’s claim that Venezuelan VP has been talking to US about handing in power to a steering group of sorts led by Trump, this would be (I believe) unprecedented in world history: an overnight special ops mission resulting in the takeover of a country without boots on the ground.
January 3, 2026 at 5:35 PM
If Trump’s claim that Venezuelan VP has been talking to US about handing in power to a steering group of sorts led by Trump, this would be (I believe) unprecedented in world history: an overnight special ops mission resulting in the takeover of a country without boots on the ground.
So that’s interesting. Trump said Rubio had a conversation with Delcy Rodrigues and that she is willing to cooperate with this steering group he’s putting together.
January 3, 2026 at 5:23 PM
So that’s interesting. Trump said Rubio had a conversation with Delcy Rodrigues and that she is willing to cooperate with this steering group he’s putting together.
It's wonderful to see this groundbreaking edited volume out - and the digital version is FREE! The book introduces identity-based urban violence - types of violence that disproportionately affect certain groups concetrated in urban areas.
link.springer.com/book/10.1007...
link.springer.com/book/10.1007...
Identity-Based Mass Violence in Urban Contexts
This open access edited book brings together research and creative contributions to explore a new concept of identity-based mass violence in urban contexts
link.springer.com
November 25, 2025 at 11:39 AM
It's wonderful to see this groundbreaking edited volume out - and the digital version is FREE! The book introduces identity-based urban violence - types of violence that disproportionately affect certain groups concetrated in urban areas.
link.springer.com/book/10.1007...
link.springer.com/book/10.1007...
I had the honour of contributing to this incredible volume by the Inter-American Development Bank on Amazonian cities.
Gabriel Funari and I describe how urbanisation is affecting security in the Amazon, and point to potential policy solutions.
publications.iadb.org/en/cities-am...
Gabriel Funari and I describe how urbanisation is affecting security in the Amazon, and point to potential policy solutions.
publications.iadb.org/en/cities-am...
November 7, 2025 at 10:37 AM
I had the honour of contributing to this incredible volume by the Inter-American Development Bank on Amazonian cities.
Gabriel Funari and I describe how urbanisation is affecting security in the Amazon, and point to potential policy solutions.
publications.iadb.org/en/cities-am...
Gabriel Funari and I describe how urbanisation is affecting security in the Amazon, and point to potential policy solutions.
publications.iadb.org/en/cities-am...
There is growing concern about climate change intensifying security risks, especially crime.
But in current global context security policies need to do + w/ - resources.
Challenging issues at #BCSC Berlin Climate and Security Conference.
But in current global context security policies need to do + w/ - resources.
Challenging issues at #BCSC Berlin Climate and Security Conference.
October 23, 2025 at 12:12 PM
There is growing concern about climate change intensifying security risks, especially crime.
But in current global context security policies need to do + w/ - resources.
Challenging issues at #BCSC Berlin Climate and Security Conference.
But in current global context security policies need to do + w/ - resources.
Challenging issues at #BCSC Berlin Climate and Security Conference.
Siege of El Fasher city in Sudan: 'More than 90% reported their homes had been destroyed, damaged or looted before they fled'. www.theguardian.com/global-devel...
Thousands trapped in El Fasher siege on ‘edge of survival’, says report
The city – the Sudanese army’s last stronghold in the west of the country – has withstood more than 500 days of attacks by paramilitary RSF
www.theguardian.com
October 15, 2025 at 7:36 AM
Siege of El Fasher city in Sudan: 'More than 90% reported their homes had been destroyed, damaged or looted before they fled'. www.theguardian.com/global-devel...
This story and this picture are so important for us to understand violence. The boundaries between us vs them can turn even ‘ordinary’ ppl into murderers.
apple.news/AM-NKeTpzQvK...
apple.news/AM-NKeTpzQvK...
The shocking truth about the photograph of the ‘ordinary’ Nazi and its chilling message for us today — The Independent
It is the picture which showed the true horror of the second-world war – a man blithely shooting Jewish prisoners and watching them fall into a mass grave. His identity has finally been revealed and i...
apple.news
October 9, 2025 at 9:01 AM
This story and this picture are so important for us to understand violence. The boundaries between us vs them can turn even ‘ordinary’ ppl into murderers.
apple.news/AM-NKeTpzQvK...
apple.news/AM-NKeTpzQvK...
Had the pleasure of contributing to Monocle Radio, commenting on the top stories today w/ @andrewmueller.bsky.social @burcuozcelik.bsky.social. Particularly important discussion on the impact of urban warfare on Gaza.
Latest Daily on Monocle Radio. @burcuozcelik.bsky.social and @antoniosamp.bsky.social on the day's big stories, plus Karen Krizanovich on the legacy of the late Robert Redford. monocle.com/radio/shows/...
Donald Trump kicks off historic second state visit to the UK - Monocle
As US president Donald Trump and first lady Melania start their UK tour at Windsor Castle, we discuss what the...
monocle.com
September 16, 2025 at 7:57 PM
Had the pleasure of contributing to Monocle Radio, commenting on the top stories today w/ @andrewmueller.bsky.social @burcuozcelik.bsky.social. Particularly important discussion on the impact of urban warfare on Gaza.
My views on how the practice of violence prevention can better adapt to contexts affected by organised crime: globalinitiative.net/analysis/loc...
Strong local institutions and governance are key to preventing violence and organized crime in cities
Armed violence in our communities is a pervasive problem that has damaged public trust in institutions in countries ranging from El Salvador to Sweden. The impact of violence on people’s lives and on ...
globalinitiative.net
August 19, 2025 at 12:52 PM
My views on how the practice of violence prevention can better adapt to contexts affected by organised crime: globalinitiative.net/analysis/loc...
Really interesting study of how criminal governance can emerge in a UK city: www.nature.com/articles/s44...
The relationship between social order and crime in Nottingham, England - Nature Cities
This study used a mixed-methods approach to map out crime patterns over time in Nottingham. It found that the district of Bestwood, the site of a large governance-type organized crime group, has lower...
www.nature.com
July 22, 2025 at 8:38 AM
Really interesting study of how criminal governance can emerge in a UK city: www.nature.com/articles/s44...
The increasing occurrence urban warfare is one aspect of a broader trend: the blurring between warfare and civilian life. @2eatsoup.bsky.social writes a great think piece for @icrc.org on how the use of technology is allowing these two spheres to come even closer: blogs.icrc.org/law-and-poli...
The shifting battlefield: technology, tactics, and the risk of blurring lines in warfare - Humanitarian Law & Policy Blog
The accelerating integration of emerging technologies into armed conflict is transforming not only the tools of war, but its tactics, geography, participants and impact. Technological developments – f...
blogs.icrc.org
May 22, 2025 at 11:21 AM
The increasing occurrence urban warfare is one aspect of a broader trend: the blurring between warfare and civilian life. @2eatsoup.bsky.social writes a great think piece for @icrc.org on how the use of technology is allowing these two spheres to come even closer: blogs.icrc.org/law-and-poli...
It’s Friday and even before I finish work I got a treat: this dog sitting next to me in a cafe came to say hi several times. Why can’t life (and humans!) be as simple as dogs?
May 16, 2025 at 2:11 PM
It’s Friday and even before I finish work I got a treat: this dog sitting next to me in a cafe came to say hi several times. Why can’t life (and humans!) be as simple as dogs?
Excavators are an integral part of current military activities in Gaza - the role of urban destruction for control of cities in current urban war is high (also seen in Syria by Assad regime).
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Gazans Once Escaped To Rafah. Now Israel Is Razing It.
In the last few weeks, Israel has demolished extensive areas of Gaza’s southernmost city, Rafah.
www.nytimes.com
May 15, 2025 at 3:57 PM
Excavators are an integral part of current military activities in Gaza - the role of urban destruction for control of cities in current urban war is high (also seen in Syria by Assad regime).
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Full Pedestrianisation of Strand
Can you spare a minute to help this campaign?
chng.it
May 13, 2025 at 7:47 AM
A grim picture.
www.theguardian.com/global-devel...
www.theguardian.com/global-devel...
Trump’s first 100 days supercharged a global ‘freefall of rights’, says Amnesty
World now in era of repressive regimes’ impunity, climate inaction and unchecked corporate power, says report
www.theguardian.com
April 29, 2025 at 7:14 AM
A grim picture.
www.theguardian.com/global-devel...
www.theguardian.com/global-devel...
The problem is not so much attacks on Maiduguri, but the insecurity of the myriad small and medium towns around it. They are all connected, and attacks in one sector or major road affect all of them. www.theguardian.com/world/2025/a...
Fears of Boko Haram comeback stir in Nigerian birthplace of Maiduguri
Threat from jihadists had widely been perceived to be extinguished, but recent clashes suggest otherwise
www.theguardian.com
April 28, 2025 at 8:06 AM
The problem is not so much attacks on Maiduguri, but the insecurity of the myriad small and medium towns around it. They are all connected, and attacks in one sector or major road affect all of them. www.theguardian.com/world/2025/a...
Khartoum residents speak of widespread fear, looting and rape during RSF forces' presence in the city, which is one of Africa's largest and has just been recovered by Sadanese military. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/26/w...
Paramilitary Fighters Flee Sudan’s Capital, a Major Shift in Civil War
In dramatic scenes that appear to mark a turning point in nearly two years of civil war, Sudan’s military is driving fighters of its rival, the Rapid Support Forces, out of Khartoum.
www.nytimes.com
April 2, 2025 at 7:25 AM
Khartoum residents speak of widespread fear, looting and rape during RSF forces' presence in the city, which is one of Africa's largest and has just been recovered by Sadanese military. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/26/w...
Not another war, please.
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/17/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/17/w...
www.nytimes.com
March 18, 2025 at 9:31 AM
Not another war, please.
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/17/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/17/w...
Wonderful rainbow on my way home today. London does have its weather wonders.
March 13, 2025 at 4:51 PM
Wonderful rainbow on my way home today. London does have its weather wonders.
Cities are at the forefront of climate risks and disasters in the current climate crisis: www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Flood and drought risk increasing in cities, according to study
WaterAid worked with the University of Bristol and Cardiff University on the climate hazard research.
www.bbc.co.uk
March 13, 2025 at 12:54 PM
Cities are at the forefront of climate risks and disasters in the current climate crisis: www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
The @oecd-ocde.bsky.social States of Fragility 2025 report reflects the increasing global concern with urban insecurity.
It says rapid urbanisation requires urgent attention to security provision and offers opportunities for organised crime in cities.
www.oecd.org/en/publicati...
It says rapid urbanisation requires urgent attention to security provision and offers opportunities for organised crime in cities.
www.oecd.org/en/publicati...
States of Fragility 2025
States of Fragility 2025 considers a world of shifting power dynamics, where the most severe impacts of crisis, conflict and instability converge in the 61 contexts identified with high and extreme fr...
www.oecd.org
February 25, 2025 at 8:15 AM
The @oecd-ocde.bsky.social States of Fragility 2025 report reflects the increasing global concern with urban insecurity.
It says rapid urbanisation requires urgent attention to security provision and offers opportunities for organised crime in cities.
www.oecd.org/en/publicati...
It says rapid urbanisation requires urgent attention to security provision and offers opportunities for organised crime in cities.
www.oecd.org/en/publicati...