Ant Breach
@antbreach.bsky.social
Director of Policy and Research at Centre for Cities, working on Housing, Planning, Devolution. Stuff on Ukraine + Eastern Europe and Japan + East Asia too. YIMBY. Views own etc. 🥑🇺🇦
Local government and the metro mayors need to:
Think about the wider urban core (not just boroughs and sites) and embrace rules-based decision-making
Intervene with national government to derisk densification in the biggest cities where there should be latent demand
Think about the wider urban core (not just boroughs and sites) and embrace rules-based decision-making
Intervene with national government to derisk densification in the biggest cities where there should be latent demand
November 20, 2025 at 12:33 PM
Local government and the metro mayors need to:
Think about the wider urban core (not just boroughs and sites) and embrace rules-based decision-making
Intervene with national government to derisk densification in the biggest cities where there should be latent demand
Think about the wider urban core (not just boroughs and sites) and embrace rules-based decision-making
Intervene with national government to derisk densification in the biggest cities where there should be latent demand
National Government needs to:
Replace the TCPA 1947 discretionary planning system with a new flexible zoning system
Go as bold as they can on their current within-system planning reform agenda
Replace the TCPA 1947 discretionary planning system with a new flexible zoning system
Go as bold as they can on their current within-system planning reform agenda
November 20, 2025 at 12:32 PM
National Government needs to:
Replace the TCPA 1947 discretionary planning system with a new flexible zoning system
Go as bold as they can on their current within-system planning reform agenda
Replace the TCPA 1947 discretionary planning system with a new flexible zoning system
Go as bold as they can on their current within-system planning reform agenda
So, what needs to change? We need to:
Focus on the big cities, particularly the big cities outside London
Density outside the city centres, but not the outer suburbs
Make it much easier to build new mid-rise flats
Focus on the big cities, particularly the big cities outside London
Density outside the city centres, but not the outer suburbs
Make it much easier to build new mid-rise flats
November 20, 2025 at 12:32 PM
So, what needs to change? We need to:
Focus on the big cities, particularly the big cities outside London
Density outside the city centres, but not the outer suburbs
Make it much easier to build new mid-rise flats
Focus on the big cities, particularly the big cities outside London
Density outside the city centres, but not the outer suburbs
Make it much easier to build new mid-rise flats
We really need big changes to achieve this. We would need to quadruple housebuilding in Manchester's urban core to close its gap in 25 years, and increase by 10x to close it in 10 years.
November 20, 2025 at 12:32 PM
We really need big changes to achieve this. We would need to quadruple housebuilding in Manchester's urban core to close its gap in 25 years, and increase by 10x to close it in 10 years.
So what's the size of the prize?
There are huge gaps for some cities. Manchester has 236k fewer homes in its urban core than Lyon, Birmingham 228k fewer than Fukuoka, and Leeds 250k fewer than Marseille.
By contrast, Bristol's gap with Nantes is 31k.
There are huge gaps for some cities. Manchester has 236k fewer homes in its urban core than Lyon, Birmingham 228k fewer than Fukuoka, and Leeds 250k fewer than Marseille.
By contrast, Bristol's gap with Nantes is 31k.
November 20, 2025 at 12:31 PM
So what's the size of the prize?
There are huge gaps for some cities. Manchester has 236k fewer homes in its urban core than Lyon, Birmingham 228k fewer than Fukuoka, and Leeds 250k fewer than Marseille.
By contrast, Bristol's gap with Nantes is 31k.
There are huge gaps for some cities. Manchester has 236k fewer homes in its urban core than Lyon, Birmingham 228k fewer than Fukuoka, and Leeds 250k fewer than Marseille.
By contrast, Bristol's gap with Nantes is 31k.
Croydon's suburban design guide - which allocated the entire borough for new 3 storey flats if they follow design rules - shows the potential of reform.
But political opposition from Nimbys and candidates for Mayor killed the policy after three years - because it worked!
But political opposition from Nimbys and candidates for Mayor killed the policy after three years - because it worked!
November 20, 2025 at 12:31 PM
Croydon's suburban design guide - which allocated the entire borough for new 3 storey flats if they follow design rules - shows the potential of reform.
But political opposition from Nimbys and candidates for Mayor killed the policy after three years - because it worked!
But political opposition from Nimbys and candidates for Mayor killed the policy after three years - because it worked!
We also have lots of rules that block new homes in existing urban areas. Parking rules, vague vibes on 'overdevelopment' and new regs like the dual staircase rule and minimum space standard all make it harder to build new flats.
November 20, 2025 at 12:30 PM
We also have lots of rules that block new homes in existing urban areas. Parking rules, vague vibes on 'overdevelopment' and new regs like the dual staircase rule and minimum space standard all make it harder to build new flats.
The French and Japanese systems work differently because they have zoning systems.
As they are setting rules for development across their entire urban core, much more land is available for new flats, even if they are still banned in some locations.
As they are setting rules for development across their entire urban core, much more land is available for new flats, even if they are still banned in some locations.
November 20, 2025 at 12:30 PM
The French and Japanese systems work differently because they have zoning systems.
As they are setting rules for development across their entire urban core, much more land is available for new flats, even if they are still banned in some locations.
As they are setting rules for development across their entire urban core, much more land is available for new flats, even if they are still banned in some locations.
Our discretionary planning system thinks in terms of "sites" rather than "neighbourhoods". This means non-sites are expected to not change, and so new flats are implicitly banned nearly everywhere.
November 20, 2025 at 12:29 PM
Our discretionary planning system thinks in terms of "sites" rather than "neighbourhoods". This means non-sites are expected to not change, and so new flats are implicitly banned nearly everywhere.
(This likely isn't due to preference - English and Welsh big cities have far fewer families *and* single people living in flats than Scottish, French, and Japanese big cities)
November 20, 2025 at 12:28 PM
(This likely isn't due to preference - English and Welsh big cities have far fewer families *and* single people living in flats than Scottish, French, and Japanese big cities)
The importance of more mid-rise in driving density can be seen by the number of people living in flats. English and Welsh cities have far fewer flats than their peers - not a coincidence Glasgow and Edinburgh are both relatively dense and have lots of flats.
November 20, 2025 at 12:28 PM
The importance of more mid-rise in driving density can be seen by the number of people living in flats. English and Welsh cities have far fewer flats than their peers - not a coincidence Glasgow and Edinburgh are both relatively dense and have lots of flats.
The answer is the urban cores of French and Japanese big cities contain a jumbled mix of houses and mid-rise (four to nine storey) apartment buildings.
This urban form is rare in the urban core of British big cities - the 'missing mid-rise' is what underpins the density gap.
This urban form is rare in the urban core of British big cities - the 'missing mid-rise' is what underpins the density gap.
November 20, 2025 at 12:27 PM
The answer is the urban cores of French and Japanese big cities contain a jumbled mix of houses and mid-rise (four to nine storey) apartment buildings.
This urban form is rare in the urban core of British big cities - the 'missing mid-rise' is what underpins the density gap.
This urban form is rare in the urban core of British big cities - the 'missing mid-rise' is what underpins the density gap.
Terraced neighbourhoods are dense by British standards. But they 'cap out' at a low maximum density, and struggle with car parking.
French cities have more tall terraced apartment buildings, and Japanese cities ban street parking altogether, leading to tiny or zero gardens.
French cities have more tall terraced apartment buildings, and Japanese cities ban street parking altogether, leading to tiny or zero gardens.
November 20, 2025 at 12:26 PM
Terraced neighbourhoods are dense by British standards. But they 'cap out' at a low maximum density, and struggle with car parking.
French cities have more tall terraced apartment buildings, and Japanese cities ban street parking altogether, leading to tiny or zero gardens.
French cities have more tall terraced apartment buildings, and Japanese cities ban street parking altogether, leading to tiny or zero gardens.
So we know British big cities are less dense than their French and Japanese peers - what buildings are they missing in their urban core compared to them?
It's not high-rises. We have lots in city centres, sometimes even taller than theirs. But nobody really has them outside the centre.
It's not high-rises. We have lots in city centres, sometimes even taller than theirs. But nobody really has them outside the centre.
November 20, 2025 at 12:26 PM
So we know British big cities are less dense than their French and Japanese peers - what buildings are they missing in their urban core compared to them?
It's not high-rises. We have lots in city centres, sometimes even taller than theirs. But nobody really has them outside the centre.
It's not high-rises. We have lots in city centres, sometimes even taller than theirs. But nobody really has them outside the centre.
(Incidentally this is because we demolish hardly anything. Contrary to claims that Britain is "addicted" to demolition, we only demolish 0.02 per cent of stock every year - 1 in every 5,000 homes)
November 20, 2025 at 12:26 PM
(Incidentally this is because we demolish hardly anything. Contrary to claims that Britain is "addicted" to demolition, we only demolish 0.02 per cent of stock every year - 1 in every 5,000 homes)
This means loads of our existing stock in the urban core is really old. Over half is from before the Second World War (and Town and Country Planning Act 1947), by far the oldest of any group of neighbourhood across the three countries.
November 20, 2025 at 12:25 PM
This means loads of our existing stock in the urban core is really old. Over half is from before the Second World War (and Town and Country Planning Act 1947), by far the oldest of any group of neighbourhood across the three countries.
The reason is because the built form of the urban core *outside the city centre* of British big cities is essentially frozen.
This is totally different to French and Japanese big cities which see construction across their urban core.
This is totally different to French and Japanese big cities which see construction across their urban core.
November 20, 2025 at 12:25 PM
The reason is because the built form of the urban core *outside the city centre* of British big cities is essentially frozen.
This is totally different to French and Japanese big cities which see construction across their urban core.
This is totally different to French and Japanese big cities which see construction across their urban core.
So you might be thinking, well, that's just a historical issue. I go to Manchester city centre and see lots of towers and cranes, so the gap is surely closing.
Nope. In fact, the gap is getting wider - a sixth of the total gap emerged in the past decade!
Nope. In fact, the gap is getting wider - a sixth of the total gap emerged in the past decade!
November 20, 2025 at 12:24 PM
So you might be thinking, well, that's just a historical issue. I go to Manchester city centre and see lots of towers and cranes, so the gap is surely closing.
Nope. In fact, the gap is getting wider - a sixth of the total gap emerged in the past decade!
Nope. In fact, the gap is getting wider - a sixth of the total gap emerged in the past decade!
Together these low densities in British cities add up to over 2 million missing homes in cities compared to either France or Japan.
London has the biggest individual gap. But it's roughly a quarter of the total national urban gap. Half of the gap is in the 12 other big cities.
London has the biggest individual gap. But it's roughly a quarter of the total national urban gap. Half of the gap is in the 12 other big cities.
November 20, 2025 at 12:23 PM
Together these low densities in British cities add up to over 2 million missing homes in cities compared to either France or Japan.
London has the biggest individual gap. But it's roughly a quarter of the total national urban gap. Half of the gap is in the 12 other big cities.
London has the biggest individual gap. But it's roughly a quarter of the total national urban gap. Half of the gap is in the 12 other big cities.
We can plot this as an average across the big cities on a gradient chart.
British big cities have a flat density gradient. They are much less dense in their urban cores than France or Japan. They're so flat in the outer suburbs (beyond 5km) they're denser than French cities!
British big cities have a flat density gradient. They are much less dense in their urban cores than France or Japan. They're so flat in the outer suburbs (beyond 5km) they're denser than French cities!
November 20, 2025 at 12:23 PM
We can plot this as an average across the big cities on a gradient chart.
British big cities have a flat density gradient. They are much less dense in their urban cores than France or Japan. They're so flat in the outer suburbs (beyond 5km) they're denser than French cities!
British big cities have a flat density gradient. They are much less dense in their urban cores than France or Japan. They're so flat in the outer suburbs (beyond 5km) they're denser than French cities!
As we have this data by neighbourhood, we can plot it on a map.
And the urban core - 5km out from the city centre in big cities - of British cities really stands out. There's almost no difference between them and their outer suburbs, unlike their French and Japanese peers.
And the urban core - 5km out from the city centre in big cities - of British cities really stands out. There's almost no difference between them and their outer suburbs, unlike their French and Japanese peers.
November 20, 2025 at 12:23 PM
As we have this data by neighbourhood, we can plot it on a map.
And the urban core - 5km out from the city centre in big cities - of British cities really stands out. There's almost no difference between them and their outer suburbs, unlike their French and Japanese peers.
And the urban core - 5km out from the city centre in big cities - of British cities really stands out. There's almost no difference between them and their outer suburbs, unlike their French and Japanese peers.
The big cities (Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham etc) have the biggest density gap of all. They're the same density as small cities in their urban core - essentially they have the built form of very very large towns.
November 20, 2025 at 12:22 PM
The big cities (Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham etc) have the biggest density gap of all. They're the same density as small cities in their urban core - essentially they have the built form of very very large towns.
If we compare British, French, and Japanese cities of a similar population, we can see the bigger cities get, the denser their inner urban cores get - except in Britain when outside London.
November 20, 2025 at 12:22 PM
If we compare British, French, and Japanese cities of a similar population, we can see the bigger cities get, the denser their inner urban cores get - except in Britain when outside London.
Everybody loves brownfield-first. But where exactly should we densify our cities? And how?
Our new report shows Britain's density gap is wider in the biggest cities outside London than in the capital - and the inner city 'urban cores' up to 5km out from the centre are to blame.
Our new report shows Britain's density gap is wider in the biggest cities outside London than in the capital - and the inner city 'urban cores' up to 5km out from the centre are to blame.
November 20, 2025 at 12:21 PM
Everybody loves brownfield-first. But where exactly should we densify our cities? And how?
Our new report shows Britain's density gap is wider in the biggest cities outside London than in the capital - and the inner city 'urban cores' up to 5km out from the centre are to blame.
Our new report shows Britain's density gap is wider in the biggest cities outside London than in the capital - and the inner city 'urban cores' up to 5km out from the centre are to blame.
See our article on council tax reform from a couple of months ago. We need fiscal devolution to allow CT to flex around local prices and provide a strong growth incentive, not a slight tweak to the 1991 system. bsky.app/profile/cent...
November 2, 2025 at 6:44 PM
See our article on council tax reform from a couple of months ago. We need fiscal devolution to allow CT to flex around local prices and provide a strong growth incentive, not a slight tweak to the 1991 system. bsky.app/profile/cent...