Andrew Morral
@andrewmorral.bsky.social
Greenwald Chair in Gun Policy at RAND.
Director of the National Collaborative on Gun Violence Research: https://www.ncgvr.org
Co-Director of RAND’s Gun Policy In America initiative: https://www.rand.org/research/gun-policy.html.
Director of the National Collaborative on Gun Violence Research: https://www.ncgvr.org
Co-Director of RAND’s Gun Policy In America initiative: https://www.rand.org/research/gun-policy.html.
Reposted by Andrew Morral
Thank you Andrew! Very honored! We really enjoyed putting this paper together and are very pleased by the response it has gotten. Huge thanks also to the NCGVR for the funding for the fifth wave that made this and other recent work possible.
November 26, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Thank you Andrew! Very honored! We really enjoyed putting this paper together and are very pleased by the response it has gotten. Huge thanks also to the NCGVR for the funding for the fifth wave that made this and other recent work possible.
The paper is published in Science Advances, and is open access. Find it here: science.org/doi/epdf/10....
science.org
November 26, 2025 at 1:41 PM
The paper is published in Science Advances, and is open access. Find it here: science.org/doi/epdf/10....
They also document a period-specific rise in adult carrying, 2016-2020, which coincides with broader social insecurity and a liberalized carry environment, suggesting that policy solutions must look beyond adolescent violence to address risks posed by durable adult-carry culture.
November 26, 2025 at 1:41 PM
They also document a period-specific rise in adult carrying, 2016-2020, which coincides with broader social insecurity and a liberalized carry environment, suggesting that policy solutions must look beyond adolescent violence to address risks posed by durable adult-carry culture.
They highlight two pathways to concealed gun carrying: adolescent carrying, which tends to be short-lived and triggered by direct exposure to gun violence, and adult-onset carrying, which is persistent, increasingly legal, and less tied to immediate victimization.
November 26, 2025 at 1:41 PM
They highlight two pathways to concealed gun carrying: adolescent carrying, which tends to be short-lived and triggered by direct exposure to gun violence, and adult-onset carrying, which is persistent, increasingly legal, and less tied to immediate victimization.
This suggests an urgent need to mitigate gun theft and lost police effectiveness when loosening carry laws, since these indirect harms—not actions by permit holders themselves—appear to fuel the observed crime increase.
November 26, 2025 at 1:15 PM
This suggests an urgent need to mitigate gun theft and lost police effectiveness when loosening carry laws, since these indirect harms—not actions by permit holders themselves—appear to fuel the observed crime increase.
They find that violent crime rises when states adopt right-to-carry handgun laws, an effect driven in part by a sharp increase in gun theft (50%) and diminished police performance in solving violent crimes.
November 26, 2025 at 1:15 PM
They find that violent crime rises when states adopt right-to-carry handgun laws, an effect driven in part by a sharp increase in gun theft (50%) and diminished police performance in solving violent crimes.
No. This cannot be right. 56 additional injuries per 100k is not plausible for a 1% increase in food insecurity. Please double check this claim. Or provide the citation, and I will.
October 31, 2025 at 11:52 PM
No. This cannot be right. 56 additional injuries per 100k is not plausible for a 1% increase in food insecurity. Please double check this claim. Or provide the citation, and I will.
A joke, I know, but I enjoyed and completely agree with; statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/10/11/7...
7 reasons to use Bayesian inference! | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
October 16, 2025 at 1:48 AM
A joke, I know, but I enjoyed and completely agree with; statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/10/11/7...
Specifically, homicides and car crash fatalities were trending down, but then reversed in 2015 and started rising. Between 2010 and 2014 opioid deaths increased by 0.6 (per 100k) per year, but jumped by 1.6 in 2015, and 3.5 in 2016. Depression has an earlier inflection by 2 years
September 20, 2025 at 2:11 AM
Specifically, homicides and car crash fatalities were trending down, but then reversed in 2015 and started rising. Between 2010 and 2014 opioid deaths increased by 0.6 (per 100k) per year, but jumped by 1.6 in 2015, and 3.5 in 2016. Depression has an earlier inflection by 2 years
