Andrew M Leber
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andrewleber.bsky.social
Andrew M Leber
@andrewleber.bsky.social
1.8K followers 460 following 1.1K posts
Asst. Prof. of political science, Tulane U
MENA politics, some photography, some translation
New Orleans, LA ⚜️
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andrewleber.bsky.social
Looking for a short read on your commute home (at the intersection of IR theory and current events)?

I wrote on international status and MBS' Washington visit for @carnegieendowment.org
Still, the symbolic value of the visit went beyond burnishing the crown prince’s reputation by signaling the kingdom’s international status: what political scientists define as “collective beliefs about a given state’s ranking [in the world, based] on valued attributes.” Leaders—including in Saudi Arabia—seek out international prestige and recognition not only to boost their own egos, but to cultivate domestic support as well.
November 21, 2025 at 10:31 PM
andrewleber.bsky.social
In case of interest for anybody in the DC area
Progressive Foreign Policy Happy Hour Friday, Oct. 17 Lyman's Tavern, 3720 14th St NW, Washington, DC
October 14, 2025 at 4:39 PM
andrewleber.bsky.social
Is there any political hack more desperate for relevance (or business) than Mark Penn.

www.nytimes.com/2025/08/06/n...
The president has been briefed by Mark Penn, a pollster who has worked for Bill and Hillary Clinton, and Andrew Stein, a former New York City Council president and decades-long friend of Mr. Trump, on a range of polling that showed Mr. Cuomo could still be competitive as an independent candidate. Both men have pushed Mr. Cuomo as the best candidate despite his loss in the Democratic primary, including in a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed. One of Mr. Penn’s firms did extensive work for a pro-Cuomo super PAC in the primary.
August 6, 2025 at 8:17 PM
andrewleber.bsky.social
Wrote up thoughts on the way forward for progressive FP & de-militarizing foreign policy after US strikes on Iran (or rather what the strikes say about moving forward) for @cipolicy.bsky.social

internationalpolicy.org/publications...
Graphic summarizing key points of the article "Building Humane Foreign Policy On Moral Outrage"
July 7, 2025 at 2:00 PM
andrewleber.bsky.social
Rusty from true detective meme that says "the arc of history is a flat circle"
June 27, 2025 at 8:08 PM
andrewleber.bsky.social
A problem for restraint-style approaches to U.S. foreign policy is that while there isn't robust public support *for* air strikes abroad, there's also not an overwhelming opposition to it.

www.washingtonpost.com/politics/int...
WaPo graphic showing that 28% of respondents to a flash poll support Trump's airstrikes, 17% are unsure, and 45% oppose
June 24, 2025 at 11:40 PM
andrewleber.bsky.social
The terrifying thing about this moment is that anything could happen.
Twitter post from truthsocial - "Donald J. Trump Truth Social 06.16.25 06:30 PM EST Iran should have signed the “deal” I told them to sign. What a shame, and waste of human life. Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!"
June 16, 2025 at 11:15 PM
andrewleber.bsky.social
Always a good sign of things to come when you're getting confident headlines like this...

www.wsj.com/world/middle...
Wsj headline: Israel races to reshape the Middle East
June 16, 2025 at 1:56 AM
andrewleber.bsky.social
For @carnegieendowment.org, I wrote about the Saudi podcast scene and how hosts address policy and politics without being overtly "political."
Yet Saudi media outlets continue to evolve and expand. Alongside new satellite channels, a nascent film industry, and a host of individual influencers, podcasts have become a rapidly expanding media format in Saudi Arabia and the surrounding Gulf.
June 3, 2025 at 5:05 PM
andrewleber.bsky.social
Harvard doesn't need my money, and this is a molecule in the bucket, but they're seemingly one of the few liberal institutions with both resources and the will to push back against this administration at present.
Screenshot showing $25 donation to Harvard University
May 19, 2025 at 7:22 PM
andrewleber.bsky.social
www.aacu.org/newsroom/a-c...
AAC&U statement on "A Call for Constructive Engagement", screenshotted with a CTRL+F to show that Tulane has not signed
April 28, 2025 at 2:53 AM
andrewleber.bsky.social
Took some doing but still tracked down some cherry trees in bloom
Kwanzan cherry trees
April 15, 2025 at 12:43 AM
andrewleber.bsky.social
I guess new currency symbols are the buzzy new thing in GCC consultant circles...
Ad for new Saudi riyal symbol
April 1, 2025 at 6:19 PM
andrewleber.bsky.social
Saudi Arabia's external umrah numbers for the past few years are pretty unprecedented.
Number of external Umrah participants from Saudi Arabia, showing a steady rise from about 1 million to about 8 million in 2000-19, than a sharp drop for 2020-21, than an increase to 19 million or so by 2024
March 27, 2025 at 9:56 PM
andrewleber.bsky.social
Rephrasing this:

While technically accurate to refer to the "Houthi-controlled" Yemeni health ministry, phrasing + skepticism about casualty numbers is uncomfortably similar to discrediting Gaza casualty the so-called "Hamas-run" Ministry of Health

www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...
"Vance responded a minute later: “Excellent.” Thirty-five minutes after that, Ratcliffe, the CIA director, wrote, “A good start,” which Waltz followed with a text containing a fist emoji, an American-flag emoji, and a fire emoji. The Houthi-run Yemeni health ministry reported that at least 53 people were killed in the strikes, a number that has not been independently verified." - from Atlantic Article linked
March 27, 2025 at 11:38 AM
andrewleber.bsky.social
Let's me get this straight
Pteeter Hegseth Twitter Post: So, let’s me get this straight. The Atlantic released the so-called “war plans” and those “plans” include: No names. No targets. No locations. No units. No routes. No sources. No methods. And no classified information. Those are some really shitty war plans.
March 26, 2025 at 6:37 PM
andrewleber.bsky.social
Suffice to say Rep. Carter is displeased
Rep. Troy Carter (D-LA-2) posting a picture of Schumer meeting with Trump saying "a picture is worth a thousand words"
March 14, 2025 at 10:56 PM
andrewleber.bsky.social
I discuss aspects of this in my report for @carnegieendowment.org, namely the extent to which Saudi Arabia's international tourism drive relies on expanded pilgrimage.
bsky.app/profile/andr...
March 13, 2025 at 1:21 PM
andrewleber.bsky.social
Releases picking up again with the release of several members of the Howaitat tribe, and rumors of more to come

x.com/m3takl/statu...
Chart showing spike of new releases in past few days
February 27, 2025 at 11:09 PM
andrewleber.bsky.social
Always has to be a little bit different...

www.alaraby.co.uk/politics/%D8...
In this context, the Vice President of the Arab Center for Political and Strategic Studies, Mukhtar Al-Ghabashi, told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that the absence of a joint statement from the Riyadh meeting was due to its fraternal nature, as it was clear that any statement or declaration might upset some other parties. Therefore, care was taken to ensure that the meeting was friendly, with understandings reached between Egypt, Jordan, and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, with the exception of the Sultanate of Oman, regarding the future of Gaza with regard to funding issues and establishing a common general framework, without causing any embarrassment at the regional level or in the GCC’s relations with other parties. (Section about Oman highlighted)
February 26, 2025 at 2:19 PM
andrewleber.bsky.social
Pessimistically, looks more like a periodic release of some individuals
Same chart as above, showing no new releases but also some new detainees
February 21, 2025 at 8:21 PM
andrewleber.bsky.social
Uptick in the # of Saudi "prisoners of conscience" released in recent days, in addition to a report of 100s of "young people" released after detention over various social media posts - per the Twitter account "Prisoners of Conscience."

x.com/m3takl/statu...
Bar chart of prisoners released by day, showing sporadic release announcments in Jan and early Feb but a steady trickle since Feb 10
February 18, 2025 at 7:57 PM
andrewleber.bsky.social
Al-Medina: "Fixed Position, Immovable: No Relationship with Israel before Independent Palestinian State"

Al-Jazirah: "Fixed Position, Immovable: No Place for Negotiation or Bidding"

Al-Yaum (Dammam): "No Negotiations or Bidding -- Independent Palestinian State -- Fixed Position, Immovable"
Front page of al-Medina, Picture of MBS underneath headline Front page of Al-Jazirah newspaper, reprinting foreign ministry of saudi arabia statement on Gaza Al-Yaum front page, Main headline at left, underneath photo collage of Saudi and Palestinian scenes
February 6, 2025 at 2:29 PM
andrewleber.bsky.social
Asharq al-Aawsat:

"Broad Arab and International Rejection of Trump's <>"

aawsat.com/%D8%A7%D9%84...
picture of Gaza, destroyed, on front page of Asharq al-Aawsat
February 6, 2025 at 2:21 PM
andrewleber.bsky.social
Okaz:

"Saudi Arabia... <>"

With quotes from the recent Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement & other regional leaders

www.okaz.com.sa/news/local/2...
Front page of Okaz, photo of Crown Prince MBS speaking beneath quote of his statements
February 6, 2025 at 2:18 PM