Aaron Percival
@ampercival.bsky.social
aaronpercival.substack.com
Director / @SSC_SPC / Public Sector Transformation Leader – Driving Change for Real Impact | Obsessed with Value, Cares Deeply, Gets Things Done #PublicSector #DigitalGovernment #ServiceDelivery #Transformation #GCDigital
Director / @SSC_SPC / Public Sector Transformation Leader – Driving Change for Real Impact | Obsessed with Value, Cares Deeply, Gets Things Done #PublicSector #DigitalGovernment #ServiceDelivery #Transformation #GCDigital
6/
Don't let the worry of the moment trick you into forgetting the bigger picture.
You have navigated uncertain waters before. You will navigate these, too.
#Motivation #FutureOfWork #Mindset
Don't let the worry of the moment trick you into forgetting the bigger picture.
You have navigated uncertain waters before. You will navigate these, too.
#Motivation #FutureOfWork #Mindset
December 12, 2025 at 5:07 PM
6/
Don't let the worry of the moment trick you into forgetting the bigger picture.
You have navigated uncertain waters before. You will navigate these, too.
#Motivation #FutureOfWork #Mindset
Don't let the worry of the moment trick you into forgetting the bigger picture.
You have navigated uncertain waters before. You will navigate these, too.
#Motivation #FutureOfWork #Mindset
5/
View your life as a massive, complex portfolio.
Your job is just one asset within it. It is not the entire portfolio.
View your life as a massive, complex portfolio.
Your job is just one asset within it. It is not the entire portfolio.
December 12, 2025 at 5:07 PM
5/
View your life as a massive, complex portfolio.
Your job is just one asset within it. It is not the entire portfolio.
View your life as a massive, complex portfolio.
Your job is just one asset within it. It is not the entire portfolio.
4/
This isn’t to dismiss the reality of bills, family, or career ambition. Those are real pressures.
But this quote is a reminder to zoom out.
This isn’t to dismiss the reality of bills, family, or career ambition. Those are real pressures.
But this quote is a reminder to zoom out.
December 12, 2025 at 5:07 PM
4/
This isn’t to dismiss the reality of bills, family, or career ambition. Those are real pressures.
But this quote is a reminder to zoom out.
This isn’t to dismiss the reality of bills, family, or career ambition. Those are real pressures.
But this quote is a reminder to zoom out.
3/
When we fixate on uncertainty (like the job market), our brains play a trick on us.
We start believing that this specific worry is the only determinant of our happiness or survival.
It becomes the whole world.
When we fixate on uncertainty (like the job market), our brains play a trick on us.
We start believing that this specific worry is the only determinant of our happiness or survival.
It becomes the whole world.
December 12, 2025 at 5:07 PM
3/
When we fixate on uncertainty (like the job market), our brains play a trick on us.
We start believing that this specific worry is the only determinant of our happiness or survival.
It becomes the whole world.
When we fixate on uncertainty (like the job market), our brains play a trick on us.
We start believing that this specific worry is the only determinant of our happiness or survival.
It becomes the whole world.
2/
Kahneman called this the "Focusing Illusion."
Whatever is currently occupying your attention feels like the most critical thing in the world.
It distorts reality.
Kahneman called this the "Focusing Illusion."
Whatever is currently occupying your attention feels like the most critical thing in the world.
It distorts reality.
December 12, 2025 at 5:07 PM
2/
Kahneman called this the "Focusing Illusion."
Whatever is currently occupying your attention feels like the most critical thing in the world.
It distorts reality.
Kahneman called this the "Focusing Illusion."
Whatever is currently occupying your attention feels like the most critical thing in the world.
It distorts reality.
6/
His point: Stop trying to use AI to replace your experts.
You need your experts more than ever—mostly to babysit the bot and clean up the "plausible nonsense" it generates.
Link to the paper: doi.org/10.1016/j.pl...
#AI #ArtificialIgnorance #Management #PublicSector #Truth #HypeCycle
His point: Stop trying to use AI to replace your experts.
You need your experts more than ever—mostly to babysit the bot and clean up the "plausible nonsense" it generates.
Link to the paper: doi.org/10.1016/j.pl...
#AI #ArtificialIgnorance #Management #PublicSector #Truth #HypeCycle
December 11, 2025 at 3:08 PM
6/
His point: Stop trying to use AI to replace your experts.
You need your experts more than ever—mostly to babysit the bot and clean up the "plausible nonsense" it generates.
Link to the paper: doi.org/10.1016/j.pl...
#AI #ArtificialIgnorance #Management #PublicSector #Truth #HypeCycle
His point: Stop trying to use AI to replace your experts.
You need your experts more than ever—mostly to babysit the bot and clean up the "plausible nonsense" it generates.
Link to the paper: doi.org/10.1016/j.pl...
#AI #ArtificialIgnorance #Management #PublicSector #Truth #HypeCycle
4/
Flyvbjerg suggests a paradox: AI is only safe to use if you are already an expert in the subject.
🧠 If you are an expert: You can spot when the bot is hallucinating.
👶 If you are a novice: You will be fascinated by its confidence and walk right off a cliff.
Flyvbjerg suggests a paradox: AI is only safe to use if you are already an expert in the subject.
🧠 If you are an expert: You can spot when the bot is hallucinating.
👶 If you are a novice: You will be fascinated by its confidence and walk right off a cliff.
December 11, 2025 at 3:08 PM
4/
Flyvbjerg suggests a paradox: AI is only safe to use if you are already an expert in the subject.
🧠 If you are an expert: You can spot when the bot is hallucinating.
👶 If you are a novice: You will be fascinated by its confidence and walk right off a cliff.
Flyvbjerg suggests a paradox: AI is only safe to use if you are already an expert in the subject.
🧠 If you are an expert: You can spot when the bot is hallucinating.
👶 If you are a novice: You will be fascinated by its confidence and walk right off a cliff.
3/
It’s the digital equivalent of that one person in the meeting who has done zero reading but speaks with absolute, unshakeable confidence.
(I know you're all thinking of a name right now 😆)
It’s the digital equivalent of that one person in the meeting who has done zero reading but speaks with absolute, unshakeable confidence.
(I know you're all thinking of a name right now 😆)
December 11, 2025 at 3:08 PM
3/
It’s the digital equivalent of that one person in the meeting who has done zero reading but speaks with absolute, unshakeable confidence.
(I know you're all thinking of a name right now 😆)
It’s the digital equivalent of that one person in the meeting who has done zero reading but speaks with absolute, unshakeable confidence.
(I know you're all thinking of a name right now 😆)
2/
In his new paper, he argues that LLMs like ChatGPT aren't "liars."
A liar knows the truth and chooses to hide it. AI is actually worse: it’s a "bullsh*tter" (in the philosophical sense, of course).
It doesn't care about the truth at all. It just cares about sounding persuasive.
In his new paper, he argues that LLMs like ChatGPT aren't "liars."
A liar knows the truth and chooses to hide it. AI is actually worse: it’s a "bullsh*tter" (in the philosophical sense, of course).
It doesn't care about the truth at all. It just cares about sounding persuasive.
December 11, 2025 at 3:08 PM
2/
In his new paper, he argues that LLMs like ChatGPT aren't "liars."
A liar knows the truth and chooses to hide it. AI is actually worse: it’s a "bullsh*tter" (in the philosophical sense, of course).
It doesn't care about the truth at all. It just cares about sounding persuasive.
In his new paper, he argues that LLMs like ChatGPT aren't "liars."
A liar knows the truth and chooses to hide it. AI is actually worse: it’s a "bullsh*tter" (in the philosophical sense, of course).
It doesn't care about the truth at all. It just cares about sounding persuasive.
5/
What would your next project look like if you started from evidence and built with proven blocks instead of novelty? That’s the question behind this week’s Beyond the Status Quo.
#PublicSector #Leadership
What would your next project look like if you started from evidence and built with proven blocks instead of novelty? That’s the question behind this week’s Beyond the Status Quo.
#PublicSector #Leadership
December 9, 2025 at 4:55 PM
5/
What would your next project look like if you started from evidence and built with proven blocks instead of novelty? That’s the question behind this week’s Beyond the Status Quo.
#PublicSector #Leadership
What would your next project look like if you started from evidence and built with proven blocks instead of novelty? That’s the question behind this week’s Beyond the Status Quo.
#PublicSector #Leadership
4/
For public sector leaders, these aren’t abstract ideas. Treat projects as part of a reference class, then build with repeatable blocks. Together, these simple heuristics reduce risk, speed delivery, and make complex change more manageable.
For public sector leaders, these aren’t abstract ideas. Treat projects as part of a reference class, then build with repeatable blocks. Together, these simple heuristics reduce risk, speed delivery, and make complex change more manageable.
December 9, 2025 at 4:55 PM
4/
For public sector leaders, these aren’t abstract ideas. Treat projects as part of a reference class, then build with repeatable blocks. Together, these simple heuristics reduce risk, speed delivery, and make complex change more manageable.
For public sector leaders, these aren’t abstract ideas. Treat projects as part of a reference class, then build with repeatable blocks. Together, these simple heuristics reduce risk, speed delivery, and make complex change more manageable.
3/
The second shift is modularity. High-performing teams design around small, standardized “Lego” blocks they refine and reuse, rather than reinventing everything. Each repeated component lowers uncertainty and frees capacity for the work that truly is unique.
The second shift is modularity. High-performing teams design around small, standardized “Lego” blocks they refine and reuse, rather than reinventing everything. Each repeated component lowers uncertainty and frees capacity for the work that truly is unique.
December 9, 2025 at 4:55 PM
3/
The second shift is modularity. High-performing teams design around small, standardized “Lego” blocks they refine and reuse, rather than reinventing everything. Each repeated component lowers uncertainty and frees capacity for the work that truly is unique.
The second shift is modularity. High-performing teams design around small, standardized “Lego” blocks they refine and reuse, rather than reinventing everything. Each repeated component lowers uncertainty and frees capacity for the work that truly is unique.
2/
We love to say, “this project is different.” But when we treat initiatives as unprecedented, we ignore decades of lessons on costs, risks, and timelines. Reference class forecasting helps leaders see the pattern they’re really part of and plan accordingly.
We love to say, “this project is different.” But when we treat initiatives as unprecedented, we ignore decades of lessons on costs, risks, and timelines. Reference class forecasting helps leaders see the pattern they’re really part of and plan accordingly.
December 9, 2025 at 4:55 PM
2/
We love to say, “this project is different.” But when we treat initiatives as unprecedented, we ignore decades of lessons on costs, risks, and timelines. Reference class forecasting helps leaders see the pattern they’re really part of and plan accordingly.
We love to say, “this project is different.” But when we treat initiatives as unprecedented, we ignore decades of lessons on costs, risks, and timelines. Reference class forecasting helps leaders see the pattern they’re really part of and plan accordingly.
5/
For public sector leaders, tying decisions and governance to outcome, not activity, creates clarity and confidence. If you revisited your project’s why today, what would become clearer?
#PublicSector #Leadership #Transformation #Outcomes
For public sector leaders, tying decisions and governance to outcome, not activity, creates clarity and confidence. If you revisited your project’s why today, what would become clearer?
#PublicSector #Leadership #Transformation #Outcomes
November 18, 2025 at 5:04 PM
5/
For public sector leaders, tying decisions and governance to outcome, not activity, creates clarity and confidence. If you revisited your project’s why today, what would become clearer?
#PublicSector #Leadership #Transformation #Outcomes
For public sector leaders, tying decisions and governance to outcome, not activity, creates clarity and confidence. If you revisited your project’s why today, what would become clearer?
#PublicSector #Leadership #Transformation #Outcomes
4/
As Simon Sinek explains, people commit more deeply when they know the purpose behind the work. Purpose builds alignment, motivation, and resilience when conditions shift.
As Simon Sinek explains, people commit more deeply when they know the purpose behind the work. Purpose builds alignment, motivation, and resilience when conditions shift.
November 18, 2025 at 5:04 PM
4/
As Simon Sinek explains, people commit more deeply when they know the purpose behind the work. Purpose builds alignment, motivation, and resilience when conditions shift.
As Simon Sinek explains, people commit more deeply when they know the purpose behind the work. Purpose builds alignment, motivation, and resilience when conditions shift.
3/
Bilbao’s lesson is clear: the goal wasn’t a museum, but economic renewal. Once the why was defined, every decision aligned with that destination.
Bilbao’s lesson is clear: the goal wasn’t a museum, but economic renewal. Once the why was defined, every decision aligned with that destination.
November 18, 2025 at 5:04 PM
3/
Bilbao’s lesson is clear: the goal wasn’t a museum, but economic renewal. Once the why was defined, every decision aligned with that destination.
Bilbao’s lesson is clear: the goal wasn’t a museum, but economic renewal. Once the why was defined, every decision aligned with that destination.
2/
Start with the outcomes you want people to experience, then work backward. This shift—highlighted in How Big Things Get Done—keeps projects focused on impact instead of momentum.
Start with the outcomes you want people to experience, then work backward. This shift—highlighted in How Big Things Get Done—keeps projects focused on impact instead of momentum.
November 18, 2025 at 5:04 PM
2/
Start with the outcomes you want people to experience, then work backward. This shift—highlighted in How Big Things Get Done—keeps projects focused on impact instead of momentum.
Start with the outcomes you want people to experience, then work backward. This shift—highlighted in How Big Things Get Done—keeps projects focused on impact instead of momentum.
5/
Speed without preparation is recklessness.
Preparation without speed is stagnation.
Speed without preparation is recklessness.
Preparation without speed is stagnation.
October 28, 2025 at 5:14 PM
5/
Speed without preparation is recklessness.
Preparation without speed is stagnation.
Speed without preparation is recklessness.
Preparation without speed is stagnation.
4/
Defining “done” clearly, using data from past projects, mapping risks—these steps might feel slow, but they create the conditions for real speed later.
Defining “done” clearly, using data from past projects, mapping risks—these steps might feel slow, but they create the conditions for real speed later.
October 28, 2025 at 5:14 PM
4/
Defining “done” clearly, using data from past projects, mapping risks—these steps might feel slow, but they create the conditions for real speed later.
Defining “done” clearly, using data from past projects, mapping risks—these steps might feel slow, but they create the conditions for real speed later.
3/
Oxford’s Bent Flyvbjerg and Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman call for a different rhythm: think slow, act fast.
Plan deliberately. Execute decisively. That’s how big things get done.
Oxford’s Bent Flyvbjerg and Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman call for a different rhythm: think slow, act fast.
Plan deliberately. Execute decisively. That’s how big things get done.
October 28, 2025 at 5:14 PM
3/
Oxford’s Bent Flyvbjerg and Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman call for a different rhythm: think slow, act fast.
Plan deliberately. Execute decisively. That’s how big things get done.
Oxford’s Bent Flyvbjerg and Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman call for a different rhythm: think slow, act fast.
Plan deliberately. Execute decisively. That’s how big things get done.
2/
In government, the instinct is to move quickly—launch the program, cut the ribbon, show progress.
But research shows that rushing the start often means years of delays later.
In government, the instinct is to move quickly—launch the program, cut the ribbon, show progress.
But research shows that rushing the start often means years of delays later.
October 28, 2025 at 5:14 PM
2/
In government, the instinct is to move quickly—launch the program, cut the ribbon, show progress.
But research shows that rushing the start often means years of delays later.
In government, the instinct is to move quickly—launch the program, cut the ribbon, show progress.
But research shows that rushing the start often means years of delays later.