To put it simply: "In other words: "Nothing in this world is indifferent to us: the quest for an integral ecology"

convergenceuk.org/integral-eco...

(4/4)

In this panel, the speakers will examine this human dimension of climate change, exploring how an understanding of the place of humans in the natural environment can contribute towards climate science, climate communication and policy development. (3/4)

@amoslawless.bsky.social and I were inspired by Pope Francis's words on the need for an integral ecology, taking into account the interconnectedness between all creatures and the environment in which they live, when we we decided to try organising a panel discussion. (2/4)

This morning Sue Gray presented our work producing the first global climatology of sting-jet extratropical cyclones: wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1.... Using ERA5 we analysed ~10k top intensity 1979-2022 cyclones and looked for cloud-head mesoscale instability as a proxy of sting-jet activity

We particularly would like to highlight that SJ cyclones, ubiquitous in the extratropics, show a greater role of cloud diabatic processes in cyclone development, with implications for changes in the intensity of cyclones in a warmer future climate where diabatic processes are likely to be enhanced.

- SJ cyclones are globally more intense than nonSJ ones in terms of max low-level vorticity wind speed, deepening and central pressure anomaly at the time of max intensity
- SJ cyclones have a warmer core, more vigorous diabatic processes and more mesoscale instability in the cloud head....

Key results are:
- 75%of top intensity cyclones are develop a warm seclusion
- Cyclones containing sting jets (SJ) are likely to be present in all major ocean basins
- the tracks of SJ cyclones are at lower latitudes than their non-SJP counterparts, forming have warmer waters...

This morning Sue Gray presented our work producing the first global climatology of sting-jet extratropical cyclones: wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/1.... Using ERA5 we analysed ~10k top intensity 1979-2022 cyclones and looked for cloud-head mesoscale instability as a proxy of sting-jet activity

#StormCiarán is an example of an extreme windstorm that in its early stages was mainly driven by low-level latent heating rather than by interacting with the upper-level jet. Will this development pathway become more frequent in our warming climate? One to watch in our opinion! @ncas-uk.bsky.social

At this European Storm Workshop I'll be presenting work done with @jriboldi.bsky.social highlighting the diabatic Rossby wave origin of #StormCiarán and its subsequent development into a severe warm-seclusion cyclone capable of producing sting jets: rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

Yes, and the CCB can be in some cases as strong or even slightly stronger than the SJ. So it's difficult to say whether surface winds will be higher with SJ ahead of CCB, SJ on top of CCB or SJ and CCB merging. It also depends on how efficient the momentum transport to the surface is, fun BL stuff!

sorry, I meant to post the URL rather than the DOI: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...

Whether the sting jet reached the boundary layer in the following hours in this forecast (and in reality!), that's not an easy question to answer (and let's not forget that at later times the dry intrusion too can descend enough to interact with low-level winds, as in Ciarán 10.1002/wea.7620) 2/2

Thanks Kaitlyn! There are clear signs of sting-jet descent taking place in this section: buckling theta_e lines, descent just outside the cloud -> max winds down to 800hPa are consistent with it. However, the >100kt winds at 900hPa are in cloud and in cold air: that's the front edge of the CCB 1/2

It will indeed be the cold conveyor belt (cold jet near the surface flowing around the bent-back warm front) that will bring the strongest winds over Scotland. Despite having a "less catchy" name than the sting jet, its intensity and impacts can't be underestimated 2/2