Alpha in Academia
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Saks Global filed for bankruptcy on Tuesday.
Sales at U.S. department stores have shrunk from their peak around 2000.
Will there ever be a return to department stores?
Sales at U.S. department stores have shrunk from their peak around 2000.
Will there ever be a return to department stores?
January 14, 2026 at 3:55 PM
Saks Global filed for bankruptcy on Tuesday.
Sales at U.S. department stores have shrunk from their peak around 2000.
Will there ever be a return to department stores?
Sales at U.S. department stores have shrunk from their peak around 2000.
Will there ever be a return to department stores?
Extreme concentration in the S&P 500 is only rising, and investors are very exposed to AI:
January 13, 2026 at 9:13 PM
Extreme concentration in the S&P 500 is only rising, and investors are very exposed to AI:
US business applications are at an all-time high. Is this due to a greater entrepreneurial spirit among Americans, or due to the weak labor market?
January 11, 2026 at 8:56 PM
US business applications are at an all-time high. Is this due to a greater entrepreneurial spirit among Americans, or due to the weak labor market?
Due to high mortgage rates, homeowners are reluctant to sell their homes. This is causing new home sales to rise above existing home sales:
January 8, 2026 at 6:05 PM
Due to high mortgage rates, homeowners are reluctant to sell their homes. This is causing new home sales to rise above existing home sales:
There will likely be a significant boost in growth in Japan, Germany, and the United States from fiscal policy in 2026:
January 7, 2026 at 8:49 PM
There will likely be a significant boost in growth in Japan, Germany, and the United States from fiscal policy in 2026:
Reposted by Alpha in Academia
USD/JPY has diverged from 10Y interest rate differentials.
The yen is trading weaker (and the dollar stronger) than we would expect. This may be due to Japanese fiscal concerns with rising rates.
The yen is trading weaker (and the dollar stronger) than we would expect. This may be due to Japanese fiscal concerns with rising rates.
December 29, 2025 at 5:26 PM
USD/JPY has diverged from 10Y interest rate differentials.
The yen is trading weaker (and the dollar stronger) than we would expect. This may be due to Japanese fiscal concerns with rising rates.
The yen is trading weaker (and the dollar stronger) than we would expect. This may be due to Japanese fiscal concerns with rising rates.
A new study uses deep learning to value art. The algos attend to compositional and stylistic cues normally reserved for human experts.
For “repeated sales” with a price history, the machine adds little value. However, for “fresh-to-market” works, the visual model provides a significant edge.
For “repeated sales” with a price history, the machine adds little value. However, for “fresh-to-market” works, the visual model provides a significant edge.
January 6, 2026 at 7:10 PM
A new study uses deep learning to value art. The algos attend to compositional and stylistic cues normally reserved for human experts.
For “repeated sales” with a price history, the machine adds little value. However, for “fresh-to-market” works, the visual model provides a significant edge.
For “repeated sales” with a price history, the machine adds little value. However, for “fresh-to-market” works, the visual model provides a significant edge.
There is a strong, negative relationship between a country’s starting 2025 P/E ratio and its equity market performance:
January 5, 2026 at 7:19 PM
There is a strong, negative relationship between a country’s starting 2025 P/E ratio and its equity market performance:
While wages have grown faster (30%) than inflation (26%) since 2019, they have lagged behind the rise in home prices.
December 30, 2025 at 4:38 PM
While wages have grown faster (30%) than inflation (26%) since 2019, they have lagged behind the rise in home prices.
USD/JPY has diverged from 10Y interest rate differentials.
The yen is trading weaker (and the dollar stronger) than we would expect. This may be due to Japanese fiscal concerns with rising rates.
The yen is trading weaker (and the dollar stronger) than we would expect. This may be due to Japanese fiscal concerns with rising rates.
December 29, 2025 at 5:26 PM
USD/JPY has diverged from 10Y interest rate differentials.
The yen is trading weaker (and the dollar stronger) than we would expect. This may be due to Japanese fiscal concerns with rising rates.
The yen is trading weaker (and the dollar stronger) than we would expect. This may be due to Japanese fiscal concerns with rising rates.
Even with trade disturbances and higher-than-typical tariff rates in 2025, foreign investors bought more US assets in 2025 than in 2024.
December 28, 2025 at 7:39 PM
Even with trade disturbances and higher-than-typical tariff rates in 2025, foreign investors bought more US assets in 2025 than in 2024.
The Santa Claus Rally is still alive!
This seasonal pattern typically sees equities rise over the last five trading sessions of December (which began today) and the first two trading days of January.
Major US equity indices today posted a gain.
This seasonal pattern typically sees equities rise over the last five trading sessions of December (which began today) and the first two trading days of January.
Major US equity indices today posted a gain.
December 24, 2025 at 10:28 PM
The Santa Claus Rally is still alive!
This seasonal pattern typically sees equities rise over the last five trading sessions of December (which began today) and the first two trading days of January.
Major US equity indices today posted a gain.
This seasonal pattern typically sees equities rise over the last five trading sessions of December (which began today) and the first two trading days of January.
Major US equity indices today posted a gain.
Options volume is spiking on silver and gold ETFs as the commodities are at their ATHs:
December 23, 2025 at 9:14 PM
Options volume is spiking on silver and gold ETFs as the commodities are at their ATHs:
A stunning relationship in EUR/USD between Trump’s two terms. The USD typically sees seasonal weakness at the end of the year, which could cause EUR/USD to rise further:
December 22, 2025 at 6:56 PM
A stunning relationship in EUR/USD between Trump’s two terms. The USD typically sees seasonal weakness at the end of the year, which could cause EUR/USD to rise further:
Recently, there has been significant debate around the rising cost to own a home. However, how have homes changed over time? Since 2015, the square footage of the median home has declined:
December 20, 2025 at 6:11 PM
Recently, there has been significant debate around the rising cost to own a home. However, how have homes changed over time? Since 2015, the square footage of the median home has declined:
Net immigration in the US is slowing, and this has important consequences for labor supply, wage growth and housing demand.
December 18, 2025 at 6:21 PM
Net immigration in the US is slowing, and this has important consequences for labor supply, wage growth and housing demand.
The Japanese 10Y yield is nearing 2%, a level that we have not seen since the 90s. The BOJ will meet tomorrow.
Is the BOJ an inflation-fighting central bank, or is it a government department mandated to minimize risk of a debt financing calamity?
Is the BOJ an inflation-fighting central bank, or is it a government department mandated to minimize risk of a debt financing calamity?
December 16, 2025 at 7:38 PM
The Japanese 10Y yield is nearing 2%, a level that we have not seen since the 90s. The BOJ will meet tomorrow.
Is the BOJ an inflation-fighting central bank, or is it a government department mandated to minimize risk of a debt financing calamity?
Is the BOJ an inflation-fighting central bank, or is it a government department mandated to minimize risk of a debt financing calamity?
An ounce of silver is now worth more than a barrel of oil, for the first time since 1970.
Based on the historical relationship, this ratio is at all time highs, and is likely to mean revert.
Silver to oil ratio:
Based on the historical relationship, this ratio is at all time highs, and is likely to mean revert.
Silver to oil ratio:
December 12, 2025 at 9:31 PM
An ounce of silver is now worth more than a barrel of oil, for the first time since 1970.
Based on the historical relationship, this ratio is at all time highs, and is likely to mean revert.
Silver to oil ratio:
Based on the historical relationship, this ratio is at all time highs, and is likely to mean revert.
Silver to oil ratio:
Long term interest rates have failed to decline during this cutting cycle. The 10Y is higher today than when the Fed started cutting in September 2024.
December 10, 2025 at 3:27 PM
Long term interest rates have failed to decline during this cutting cycle. The 10Y is higher today than when the Fed started cutting in September 2024.
YTD, there has been talk about the de-dollarization theme and Treasuries losing their “safe-haven” status.
However, the U.S. Treasury's $39 billion sale of 10-year bonds on Tuesday was a reminder that appetite for U.S. sovereign debt remains strong.
However, the U.S. Treasury's $39 billion sale of 10-year bonds on Tuesday was a reminder that appetite for U.S. sovereign debt remains strong.
December 10, 2025 at 12:53 AM
YTD, there has been talk about the de-dollarization theme and Treasuries losing their “safe-haven” status.
However, the U.S. Treasury's $39 billion sale of 10-year bonds on Tuesday was a reminder that appetite for U.S. sovereign debt remains strong.
However, the U.S. Treasury's $39 billion sale of 10-year bonds on Tuesday was a reminder that appetite for U.S. sovereign debt remains strong.
31% of wealth owned by people over 70:
December 7, 2025 at 8:30 PM
31% of wealth owned by people over 70:
Swaption volatility and the MOVE index are at 3 year lows. The market is not pricing in significant moves in rates for the next three months.
December 3, 2025 at 5:07 PM
Swaption volatility and the MOVE index are at 3 year lows. The market is not pricing in significant moves in rates for the next three months.
Yesterday, US Treasuries sold off with JGBs, even with higher expectations of a Fed cut in December and poor manufacturing data.
This is likely due to the unwinding of the carry trade that has performed well over the last four years:
This is likely due to the unwinding of the carry trade that has performed well over the last four years:
December 2, 2025 at 5:24 PM
Yesterday, US Treasuries sold off with JGBs, even with higher expectations of a Fed cut in December and poor manufacturing data.
This is likely due to the unwinding of the carry trade that has performed well over the last four years:
This is likely due to the unwinding of the carry trade that has performed well over the last four years:
There is no need for the Fed to cut rates to boost consumer spending: retail sales data is strong, and Black Friday sales rise by 4.1% from last year while online spending jumps 9.1%.
November 30, 2025 at 9:40 PM
There is no need for the Fed to cut rates to boost consumer spending: retail sales data is strong, and Black Friday sales rise by 4.1% from last year while online spending jumps 9.1%.
A decomposition by the San Francisco Fed reveals that the current inflationary environment is largely a demand-side story, with strong economic activity accounting for the majority of price growth.
November 24, 2025 at 7:01 PM
A decomposition by the San Francisco Fed reveals that the current inflationary environment is largely a demand-side story, with strong economic activity accounting for the majority of price growth.