alex hayes
@alexpghayes.com
postdoc @ stanford econ + incoming assistant prof @ oregon state statistics. networks, causal inference, contagion, measurement error, #rstats. he/him
https://www.alexpghayes.com
https://www.alexpghayes.com
Keith and I strengthened our lower bounds for randomized experiments in the linear-in-means model to a general minimax result
Updated results available at arxiv.org/abs/2410.10772
Updated results available at arxiv.org/abs/2410.10772
November 25, 2025 at 9:55 PM
Keith and I strengthened our lower bounds for randomized experiments in the linear-in-means model to a general minimax result
Updated results available at arxiv.org/abs/2410.10772
Updated results available at arxiv.org/abs/2410.10772
Even if you don't find the main figure concerning, do you find the contrast with pre-registered RCT z-scores concerning? It's hard to imagine a world in which this contrast is benign
November 15, 2025 at 11:58 PM
Even if you don't find the main figure concerning, do you find the contrast with pre-registered RCT z-scores concerning? It's hard to imagine a world in which this contrast is benign
I missed that an expanded version of Philip Stark's "Pay No Attention to the Model Behind the Curtain" was published a few years back
Needless to say it's very good and worth a read
link.springer.com/10.1007/s000...
Needless to say it's very good and worth a read
link.springer.com/10.1007/s000...
October 18, 2025 at 5:25 PM
I missed that an expanded version of Philip Stark's "Pay No Attention to the Model Behind the Curtain" was published a few years back
Needless to say it's very good and worth a read
link.springer.com/10.1007/s000...
Needless to say it's very good and worth a read
link.springer.com/10.1007/s000...
~~ making sense of academic statistics ~~
i wrote about the confusing relationship between statistics and data analysis, and also about how statistics relates to science
#statistics #rstats #datascience
www.alexpghayes.com/post/making-...
i wrote about the confusing relationship between statistics and data analysis, and also about how statistics relates to science
#statistics #rstats #datascience
www.alexpghayes.com/post/making-...
July 15, 2025 at 8:15 PM
~~ making sense of academic statistics ~~
i wrote about the confusing relationship between statistics and data analysis, and also about how statistics relates to science
#statistics #rstats #datascience
www.alexpghayes.com/post/making-...
i wrote about the confusing relationship between statistics and data analysis, and also about how statistics relates to science
#statistics #rstats #datascience
www.alexpghayes.com/post/making-...
This capability isn't directly built into the software, but you can just check if the adjustment criterion holds for C with respect to:
- A on M, and
- A and M jointly on Y.
So you can check identification without needing to apply graphical criteria yourself!
www.degruyter.com/document/doi...
- A on M, and
- A and M jointly on Y.
So you can check identification without needing to apply graphical criteria yourself!
www.degruyter.com/document/doi...
March 21, 2025 at 4:57 AM
This capability isn't directly built into the software, but you can just check if the adjustment criterion holds for C with respect to:
- A on M, and
- A and M jointly on Y.
So you can check identification without needing to apply graphical criteria yourself!
www.degruyter.com/document/doi...
- A on M, and
- A and M jointly on Y.
So you can check identification without needing to apply graphical criteria yourself!
www.degruyter.com/document/doi...
Sunset across Lake Mendota in Madison
March 10, 2025 at 11:44 PM
Sunset across Lake Mendota in Madison
Enjoying Kino Zhao's recent HDSR paper on a way to think about statistical assumptions
I'm also pleased that a stats venue is publishing this kind of work
hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/qasl4fza...
I'm also pleased that a stats venue is publishing this kind of work
hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/qasl4fza...
February 12, 2025 at 8:18 PM
Enjoying Kino Zhao's recent HDSR paper on a way to think about statistical assumptions
I'm also pleased that a stats venue is publishing this kind of work
hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/qasl4fza...
I'm also pleased that a stats venue is publishing this kind of work
hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/qasl4fza...
My work on network regression and mediation in latent space models is now published at JMLR!
jmlr.org/papers/v26/2...
jmlr.org/papers/v26/2...
February 10, 2025 at 11:30 PM
My work on network regression and mediation in latent space models is now published at JMLR!
jmlr.org/papers/v26/2...
jmlr.org/papers/v26/2...
latexdiff-vc is a magic way to see what changes coauthors made to a LaTeX manuscript
latexdiff-vc --git --pdf -r {my_last_commit} -r HEAD paper.tex
www.mankier.com/1/latexdiff-vc
latexdiff-vc --git --pdf -r {my_last_commit} -r HEAD paper.tex
www.mankier.com/1/latexdiff-vc
January 21, 2025 at 5:24 PM
latexdiff-vc is a magic way to see what changes coauthors made to a LaTeX manuscript
latexdiff-vc --git --pdf -r {my_last_commit} -r HEAD paper.tex
www.mankier.com/1/latexdiff-vc
latexdiff-vc --git --pdf -r {my_last_commit} -r HEAD paper.tex
www.mankier.com/1/latexdiff-vc
Last night I finished "Code" by @charlespetzold.bsky.social, which starts by explaining how to physically implement logic gates with electromagnets and ends with a full-fledged explanation of a computer
Undoubted one of the best books I've ever read and I only wish I'd read it sooner
Undoubted one of the best books I've ever read and I only wish I'd read it sooner
December 15, 2024 at 4:44 PM
Last night I finished "Code" by @charlespetzold.bsky.social, which starts by explaining how to physically implement logic gates with electromagnets and ends with a full-fledged explanation of a computer
Undoubted one of the best books I've ever read and I only wish I'd read it sooner
Undoubted one of the best books I've ever read and I only wish I'd read it sooner
~~ new blog post ~~
i wrote about the meme that academic code is bad, what i think is achievable, and why i don't think we should be trying to get academics to write software for production
would love to hear what folks think!
#rstats #pydata
www.alexpghayes.com/post/what-i-...
i wrote about the meme that academic code is bad, what i think is achievable, and why i don't think we should be trying to get academics to write software for production
would love to hear what folks think!
#rstats #pydata
www.alexpghayes.com/post/what-i-...
November 15, 2024 at 4:06 PM
~~ new blog post ~~
i wrote about the meme that academic code is bad, what i think is achievable, and why i don't think we should be trying to get academics to write software for production
would love to hear what folks think!
#rstats #pydata
www.alexpghayes.com/post/what-i-...
i wrote about the meme that academic code is bad, what i think is achievable, and why i don't think we should be trying to get academics to write software for production
would love to hear what folks think!
#rstats #pydata
www.alexpghayes.com/post/what-i-...
Minor update to {vsp} just hit CRAN #rstats
- Bug fixes: get_hubs() functions working again
- Now automatically permutes B matrix to make it as diagonal as possible, such that Y and Z factors match up (to the degree possible)
rohelab.github.io/vsp/news/ind...
- Bug fixes: get_hubs() functions working again
- Now automatically permutes B matrix to make it as diagonal as possible, such that Y and Z factors match up (to the degree possible)
rohelab.github.io/vsp/news/ind...
November 5, 2024 at 8:20 PM
Minor update to {vsp} just hit CRAN #rstats
- Bug fixes: get_hubs() functions working again
- Now automatically permutes B matrix to make it as diagonal as possible, such that Y and Z factors match up (to the degree possible)
rohelab.github.io/vsp/news/ind...
- Bug fixes: get_hubs() functions working again
- Now automatically permutes B matrix to make it as diagonal as possible, such that Y and Z factors match up (to the degree possible)
rohelab.github.io/vsp/news/ind...
experiment idea for someone in poli sci: assess whether the 2nd, 3rd, etc postcard promising to publicize turnout still has a positive impact on voter turnout
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
October 30, 2024 at 10:24 PM
experiment idea for someone in poli sci: assess whether the 2nd, 3rd, etc postcard promising to publicize turnout still has a positive impact on voter turnout
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
here's another one on the importance of visualizing data vs index/time: these are permutations of the same data!
Petruccelli, Joseph. “Using a Quartet and Variations to Teach Data Analysis.” MSOR Connections 7, no. 2 (May 2007): 20–23. doi.org/10.11120/mso....
Petruccelli, Joseph. “Using a Quartet and Variations to Teach Data Analysis.” MSOR Connections 7, no. 2 (May 2007): 20–23. doi.org/10.11120/mso....
October 27, 2024 at 9:20 PM
here's another one on the importance of visualizing data vs index/time: these are permutations of the same data!
Petruccelli, Joseph. “Using a Quartet and Variations to Teach Data Analysis.” MSOR Connections 7, no. 2 (May 2007): 20–23. doi.org/10.11120/mso....
Petruccelli, Joseph. “Using a Quartet and Variations to Teach Data Analysis.” MSOR Connections 7, no. 2 (May 2007): 20–23. doi.org/10.11120/mso....
a phylogenetic example where parameter estimates from a brownian motion model are all the same despite the trees being different
doi.org/10.1111/2041...
doi.org/10.1111/2041...
October 27, 2024 at 8:22 PM
a phylogenetic example where parameter estimates from a brownian motion model are all the same despite the trees being different
doi.org/10.1111/2041...
doi.org/10.1111/2041...
the datasaurus dozen, which is the original quartet on steroids
Matejka, Justin, and George Fitzmaurice. “Same Stats, Different Graphs: Generating Datasets with Varied Appearance and Identical Statistics through Simulated Annealing.” CHI 2017 doi.org/10.1145/3025...
Matejka, Justin, and George Fitzmaurice. “Same Stats, Different Graphs: Generating Datasets with Varied Appearance and Identical Statistics through Simulated Annealing.” CHI 2017 doi.org/10.1145/3025...
October 27, 2024 at 8:10 PM
the datasaurus dozen, which is the original quartet on steroids
Matejka, Justin, and George Fitzmaurice. “Same Stats, Different Graphs: Generating Datasets with Varied Appearance and Identical Statistics through Simulated Annealing.” CHI 2017 doi.org/10.1145/3025...
Matejka, Justin, and George Fitzmaurice. “Same Stats, Different Graphs: Generating Datasets with Varied Appearance and Identical Statistics through Simulated Annealing.” CHI 2017 doi.org/10.1145/3025...
a predictive quartet showing that models with the same prediction error can vary dramatically
Biecek, Przemysław, Hubert Baniecki, Mateusz Krzyziński, and Dianne Cook. “Performance Is Not Enough: The Story Told by a Rashomon Quartet.” JCGS 2024
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Biecek, Przemysław, Hubert Baniecki, Mateusz Krzyziński, and Dianne Cook. “Performance Is Not Enough: The Story Told by a Rashomon Quartet.” JCGS 2024
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
October 27, 2024 at 8:05 PM
a predictive quartet showing that models with the same prediction error can vary dramatically
Biecek, Przemysław, Hubert Baniecki, Mateusz Krzyziński, and Dianne Cook. “Performance Is Not Enough: The Story Told by a Rashomon Quartet.” JCGS 2024
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Biecek, Przemysław, Hubert Baniecki, Mateusz Krzyziński, and Dianne Cook. “Performance Is Not Enough: The Story Told by a Rashomon Quartet.” JCGS 2024
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
some quartets demonstrating how different conditional average treatment effects can all result in the same average treatment effect
Gelman, Andrew, Jessica Hullman, and Lauren Kennedy. “Causal Quartets: Different Ways to Attain the Same Average Treatment Effect.”
doi.org/10.1080/0003...
Gelman, Andrew, Jessica Hullman, and Lauren Kennedy. “Causal Quartets: Different Ways to Attain the Same Average Treatment Effect.”
doi.org/10.1080/0003...
October 27, 2024 at 8:02 PM
some quartets demonstrating how different conditional average treatment effects can all result in the same average treatment effect
Gelman, Andrew, Jessica Hullman, and Lauren Kennedy. “Causal Quartets: Different Ways to Attain the Same Average Treatment Effect.”
doi.org/10.1080/0003...
Gelman, Andrew, Jessica Hullman, and Lauren Kennedy. “Causal Quartets: Different Ways to Attain the Same Average Treatment Effect.”
doi.org/10.1080/0003...
next up is a causal quartet showing that different causal mechanisms can lead to the same data
D’Agostino McGowan, Lucy, Travis Gerke, and Malcolm Barrett. “Causal Inference Is Not Just a Statistics Problem.” Journal of Statistics and Data Science Education doi.org/10.1080/2693...
D’Agostino McGowan, Lucy, Travis Gerke, and Malcolm Barrett. “Causal Inference Is Not Just a Statistics Problem.” Journal of Statistics and Data Science Education doi.org/10.1080/2693...
October 27, 2024 at 7:58 PM
next up is a causal quartet showing that different causal mechanisms can lead to the same data
D’Agostino McGowan, Lucy, Travis Gerke, and Malcolm Barrett. “Causal Inference Is Not Just a Statistics Problem.” Journal of Statistics and Data Science Education doi.org/10.1080/2693...
D’Agostino McGowan, Lucy, Travis Gerke, and Malcolm Barrett. “Causal Inference Is Not Just a Statistics Problem.” Journal of Statistics and Data Science Education doi.org/10.1080/2693...
the classic is anscombe's quartet, which shows that data with the same summary statistics can look very different when plotted
Anscombe, F J. “Graphs in Statistical Analysis.” The American Statistician 27, no. 1 (February 1973): 17–21.
www.jstor.org/stable/2682899
Anscombe, F J. “Graphs in Statistical Analysis.” The American Statistician 27, no. 1 (February 1973): 17–21.
www.jstor.org/stable/2682899
October 27, 2024 at 7:56 PM
the classic is anscombe's quartet, which shows that data with the same summary statistics can look very different when plotted
Anscombe, F J. “Graphs in Statistical Analysis.” The American Statistician 27, no. 1 (February 1973): 17–21.
www.jstor.org/stable/2682899
Anscombe, F J. “Graphs in Statistical Analysis.” The American Statistician 27, no. 1 (February 1973): 17–21.
www.jstor.org/stable/2682899
Fast and easy way to set your handle to your #quarto blog domain (I just did mine):
- Settings > Change Handle > No DNS Panel > Copy DID
- Create atproto-did file in blog
- Add atproto-did file to Quarto resources list
- Push
Takes <5 minutes
- Settings > Change Handle > No DNS Panel > Copy DID
- Create atproto-did file in blog
- Add atproto-did file to Quarto resources list
- Push
Takes <5 minutes
October 27, 2024 at 6:44 PM
Fast and easy way to set your handle to your #quarto blog domain (I just did mine):
- Settings > Change Handle > No DNS Panel > Copy DID
- Create atproto-did file in blog
- Add atproto-did file to Quarto resources list
- Push
Takes <5 minutes
- Settings > Change Handle > No DNS Panel > Copy DID
- Create atproto-did file in blog
- Add atproto-did file to Quarto resources list
- Push
Takes <5 minutes
In terms of directly interpreting factors, I like to use heatmaps these days
Figure from arxiv.org/abs/2212.12041
Figure from arxiv.org/abs/2212.12041
October 27, 2024 at 5:04 AM
In terms of directly interpreting factors, I like to use heatmaps these days
Figure from arxiv.org/abs/2212.12041
Figure from arxiv.org/abs/2212.12041
Less directly useful for interpretation, but pairs plots can be a helpful diagnostic, although exactly what to look for is still somewhat heuristic
October 27, 2024 at 5:03 AM
Less directly useful for interpretation, but pairs plots can be a helpful diagnostic, although exactly what to look for is still somewhat heuristic
October 27, 2024 at 5:02 AM