Alex Lamers
@alexlamers.bsky.social
I try to make sense of the weather for a living. Remember, low probability events can and do happen.
If you click on a city from the Urban Rain Rate Dashboard landing page map, you can explore the data for a specific city. In this example I clicked on Richmond, and set it for 1”/hr. Read more about the URRD in the Product Description Document: nsdesk.servicenowservices.com/api/g_noa/nw...
September 26, 2025 at 4:47 PM
If you click on a city from the Urban Rain Rate Dashboard landing page map, you can explore the data for a specific city. In this example I clicked on Richmond, and set it for 1”/hr. Read more about the URRD in the Product Description Document: nsdesk.servicenowservices.com/api/g_noa/nw...
Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has unveiled the experimental Urban Rain Rate Dashboard. It uses high-res model guidance to highlight where chances of intense rain rates are highest in major cities. It’s linked in “Forecast Tools” tab on the WPC home page. Direct link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/urrd/
September 26, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has unveiled the experimental Urban Rain Rate Dashboard. It uses high-res model guidance to highlight where chances of intense rain rates are highest in major cities. It’s linked in “Forecast Tools” tab on the WPC home page. Direct link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/urrd/
Paul Hollywood and Prue Leith are lodging an official protest
December 27, 2024 at 1:34 PM
Paul Hollywood and Prue Leith are lodging an official protest
First real blast of cold air this season on tap after Thanksgiving into the Great Lakes region. With all of the lakes at record warm levels for late November, the ingredients are there for some significant lake effect snow rates.
November 25, 2024 at 4:51 PM
First real blast of cold air this season on tap after Thanksgiving into the Great Lakes region. With all of the lakes at record warm levels for late November, the ingredients are there for some significant lake effect snow rates.
If you take consensus opinion it's generally MN, IA, MO, WI, IL, IN, MI, OH. Seems like those have a clear majority of people viewing them as a Midwest state. fivethirtyeight.com/features/wha...
November 14, 2024 at 1:42 PM
If you take consensus opinion it's generally MN, IA, MO, WI, IL, IN, MI, OH. Seems like those have a clear majority of people viewing them as a Midwest state. fivethirtyeight.com/features/wha...
Tropical Depression 19, likely to be named Sara at some point, is going to stall near the coast of Honduras, a well-known recipe for extreme rainfall.
From the official advisory, for northern Honduras: “widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides”
From the official advisory, for northern Honduras: “widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides”
November 14, 2024 at 1:07 PM
Tropical Depression 19, likely to be named Sara at some point, is going to stall near the coast of Honduras, a well-known recipe for extreme rainfall.
From the official advisory, for northern Honduras: “widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides”
From the official advisory, for northern Honduras: “widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides”
As someone who loves crisp, cool fall days, I must say this fall has been terrible
November 8, 2024 at 8:21 PM
As someone who loves crisp, cool fall days, I must say this fall has been terrible
My wife snapped this one from our backyard in the Maryland suburbs of D.C. It is B-A-N-A-N-A-S to even be able to see a faint glow in an area with this much light pollution.
October 11, 2024 at 12:14 AM
My wife snapped this one from our backyard in the Maryland suburbs of D.C. It is B-A-N-A-N-A-S to even be able to see a faint glow in an area with this much light pollution.
As of 10 PM, 1.5 million customers without power in Florida according to outage aggregator @poweroutage.us. This will probably climb higher as #Milton’s strongest winds move further inland.
October 10, 2024 at 2:12 AM
As of 10 PM, 1.5 million customers without power in Florida according to outage aggregator @poweroutage.us. This will probably climb higher as #Milton’s strongest winds move further inland.
VERY heavy rain rates are expected to build up the Interstate-4 corridor this evening and overnight toward Orlando.
Weather Prediction Center: “is expected to result in major to locally catastrophic flash flooding with considerable threats to life and property” www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/met...
Weather Prediction Center: “is expected to result in major to locally catastrophic flash flooding with considerable threats to life and property” www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/met...
October 10, 2024 at 1:55 AM
VERY heavy rain rates are expected to build up the Interstate-4 corridor this evening and overnight toward Orlando.
Weather Prediction Center: “is expected to result in major to locally catastrophic flash flooding with considerable threats to life and property” www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/met...
Weather Prediction Center: “is expected to result in major to locally catastrophic flash flooding with considerable threats to life and property” www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/met...
Unsurprisingly — given rain rates observed up around 5 INCHES AN HOUR!!! — a Flash Flood Emergency has been issued for much of the Tampa metro area. About 2 million people.
This is the highest tier of Flash Flood Warning and signals incredibly serious and dangerous flash flooding.
This is the highest tier of Flash Flood Warning and signals incredibly serious and dangerous flash flooding.
October 10, 2024 at 1:41 AM
Unsurprisingly — given rain rates observed up around 5 INCHES AN HOUR!!! — a Flash Flood Emergency has been issued for much of the Tampa metro area. About 2 million people.
This is the highest tier of Flash Flood Warning and signals incredibly serious and dangerous flash flooding.
This is the highest tier of Flash Flood Warning and signals incredibly serious and dangerous flash flooding.
St. Petersburg, Florida’s Albert Whitted Airport right near downtown (KSPG) had 5.09” rain in an hour from 7:53 PM to 8:53 PM, and peak gust of 94 MPH in the same hour.
What’s left of the northwest eyewall of #Milton is pummeling the greater Tampa Bay region. Intense downpours and powerful gusts.
What’s left of the northwest eyewall of #Milton is pummeling the greater Tampa Bay region. Intense downpours and powerful gusts.
October 10, 2024 at 1:21 AM
St. Petersburg, Florida’s Albert Whitted Airport right near downtown (KSPG) had 5.09” rain in an hour from 7:53 PM to 8:53 PM, and peak gust of 94 MPH in the same hour.
What’s left of the northwest eyewall of #Milton is pummeling the greater Tampa Bay region. Intense downpours and powerful gusts.
What’s left of the northwest eyewall of #Milton is pummeling the greater Tampa Bay region. Intense downpours and powerful gusts.
We could have a strong geomagnetic storm and a landfalling major hurricane within 24 hours (or so) of each other.
October 9, 2024 at 3:34 PM
We could have a strong geomagnetic storm and a landfalling major hurricane within 24 hours (or so) of each other.
You may have noticed the rainfall forecast and flash flood risk has increased for #Milton in Florida. This is largely due to the ensemble models eliminating most of the faster scenarios, as you can see from this ellipse plot. It looks like Milton will be on the slower end of what was possible.
October 8, 2024 at 12:47 PM
You may have noticed the rainfall forecast and flash flood risk has increased for #Milton in Florida. This is largely due to the ensemble models eliminating most of the faster scenarios, as you can see from this ellipse plot. It looks like Milton will be on the slower end of what was possible.
National Hurricane Center makes it official. #Milton now in the top five of most intense hurricanes in the Atlantic basin by minimum central pressure.
October 7, 2024 at 11:59 PM
National Hurricane Center makes it official. #Milton now in the top five of most intense hurricanes in the Atlantic basin by minimum central pressure.
What does 10-15 feet of storm surge mean? This graphic from NWS shows that means water getting up to the second floor of homes. Destructive potential is massive when you factor in wave action on top as well.
October 7, 2024 at 11:06 PM
What does 10-15 feet of storm surge mean? This graphic from NWS shows that means water getting up to the second floor of homes. Destructive potential is massive when you factor in wave action on top as well.
Dropsonde into #Milton’s pinhole eye splashes at 899 millibars. Likely to be first sub-900mb hurricane in the Atlantic since the infamous 2005 season, just waiting for official word. Into a very unusual, intense tier of hurricane.
Surface wind of 24 knots at splash means pressure probably ~897mb.
Surface wind of 24 knots at splash means pressure probably ~897mb.
October 7, 2024 at 10:52 PM
Dropsonde into #Milton’s pinhole eye splashes at 899 millibars. Likely to be first sub-900mb hurricane in the Atlantic since the infamous 2005 season, just waiting for official word. Into a very unusual, intense tier of hurricane.
Surface wind of 24 knots at splash means pressure probably ~897mb.
Surface wind of 24 knots at splash means pressure probably ~897mb.
The peak storm surge forecast for #Milton has been increased to 10-15 feet for the greater Tampa Bay region and the west-central Florida coast. You do NOT want to be around to find out what that is like. Huge destructive potential.
Don’t ignore the area of 4-10 feet further south. Also dangerous.
Don’t ignore the area of 4-10 feet further south. Also dangerous.
October 7, 2024 at 9:25 PM
The peak storm surge forecast for #Milton has been increased to 10-15 feet for the greater Tampa Bay region and the west-central Florida coast. You do NOT want to be around to find out what that is like. Huge destructive potential.
Don’t ignore the area of 4-10 feet further south. Also dangerous.
Don’t ignore the area of 4-10 feet further south. Also dangerous.
Hurricane #Milton is explosively intensifying. This short clip shows the progression of the recon derived wind field over about 24 hours. NHC says it went from a tropical storm to a Category 4 in the same time frame. Small, compact, vertically stacked cores can do this with the right environment.
October 7, 2024 at 1:57 PM
Hurricane #Milton is explosively intensifying. This short clip shows the progression of the recon derived wind field over about 24 hours. NHC says it went from a tropical storm to a Category 4 in the same time frame. Small, compact, vertically stacked cores can do this with the right environment.
One thing to keep an eye on with #Milton is the short term intensification rate. Models that strengthen it faster tend to end up with a landfall point further north.
Shown here for illustration purposes: GEFS members colored by MSLP; dark reds are more intense. Plotting by @burgwx.bsky.social.
Shown here for illustration purposes: GEFS members colored by MSLP; dark reds are more intense. Plotting by @burgwx.bsky.social.
October 6, 2024 at 3:16 PM
One thing to keep an eye on with #Milton is the short term intensification rate. Models that strengthen it faster tend to end up with a landfall point further north.
Shown here for illustration purposes: GEFS members colored by MSLP; dark reds are more intense. Plotting by @burgwx.bsky.social.
Shown here for illustration purposes: GEFS members colored by MSLP; dark reds are more intense. Plotting by @burgwx.bsky.social.
The Florida Peninsula, and in particular the western coast, needs to prepare for a major hurricane, with winds potentially beginning to increase as early as Tuesday evening.
Don’t sit around and wait for the track to lock in. Intensification is very likely. You have Sunday and Monday to prepare.
Don’t sit around and wait for the track to lock in. Intensification is very likely. You have Sunday and Monday to prepare.
October 6, 2024 at 12:39 AM
The Florida Peninsula, and in particular the western coast, needs to prepare for a major hurricane, with winds potentially beginning to increase as early as Tuesday evening.
Don’t sit around and wait for the track to lock in. Intensification is very likely. You have Sunday and Monday to prepare.
Don’t sit around and wait for the track to lock in. Intensification is very likely. You have Sunday and Monday to prepare.
Sorry NYT mini, sleet and freezing rain are two different precip types
October 5, 2024 at 2:56 AM
Sorry NYT mini, sleet and freezing rain are two different precip types