Alex Clegg
@alexclegg.bsky.social
Economist at the Resolution Foundation, focusing on social security, poverty and living standards
And despite the giveaways and U-turns, the outcome of the miserable productivity outlook and tax rises is continuing stagnation in overall living standards. Real Household Disposable Income growth across this Parliament is expected to be the second worst on record, beating only the last one
November 27, 2025 at 1:35 PM
And despite the giveaways and U-turns, the outcome of the miserable productivity outlook and tax rises is continuing stagnation in overall living standards. Real Household Disposable Income growth across this Parliament is expected to be the second worst on record, beating only the last one
Zooming out, yesterday's announcements mean the distributional impact of all policies announced by this Government is now progressive: the bottom half lose 0.1% of the household income on average by 2029-30 from this Government's changes, compared to 1.4% for the top half
November 27, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Zooming out, yesterday's announcements mean the distributional impact of all policies announced by this Government is now progressive: the bottom half lose 0.1% of the household income on average by 2029-30 from this Government's changes, compared to 1.4% for the top half
Benefit changes since Autumn Budget 24 outweigh tax rises for half of households in the bottom half of the distribution, and two-thirds of the poorest decile. In contrast, 4/5 households in the top half, and almost all households in the richest decile will find themselves worse off overall
November 27, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Benefit changes since Autumn Budget 24 outweigh tax rises for half of households in the bottom half of the distribution, and two-thirds of the poorest decile. In contrast, 4/5 households in the top half, and almost all households in the richest decile will find themselves worse off overall
How has the Budget impacted living standards? The distributional impact of all tax/benefit changes since Autumn Budget 2024 is progressive:poorer households gain from 2-child limit repeal and UC boost, while richer households lose from threshold freezes and new property, dividend and savings taxes
November 27, 2025 at 1:35 PM
How has the Budget impacted living standards? The distributional impact of all tax/benefit changes since Autumn Budget 2024 is progressive:poorer households gain from 2-child limit repeal and UC boost, while richer households lose from threshold freezes and new property, dividend and savings taxes
A regression analysis of CTR generosity found that low financial resilience and high deprivation in LAs were correlated with less generous schemes, suggesting design decisions are driven by financial pressures, and residents less likely to be able to pay Council Tax are required to pay more
November 20, 2025 at 11:56 AM
A regression analysis of CTR generosity found that low financial resilience and high deprivation in LAs were correlated with less generous schemes, suggesting design decisions are driven by financial pressures, and residents less likely to be able to pay Council Tax are required to pay more
This has been a particular feature of the localisation era in England, which occurred alongside a significant squeeze in local authority spending power, meaning local authority decisions around providing localised support were often reduced to where and how much to cut
November 20, 2025 at 11:56 AM
This has been a particular feature of the localisation era in England, which occurred alongside a significant squeeze in local authority spending power, meaning local authority decisions around providing localised support were often reduced to where and how much to cut
And this appears to have had an effect on Council Tax arrears in England, which have risen every year since CTR was localised
November 20, 2025 at 11:56 AM
And this appears to have had an effect on Council Tax arrears in England, which have risen every year since CTR was localised
This has caused large discrepancies in the amount of Council Tax similar families pay. A family living in a Band D property and receiving the maximum CTR in Doncaster would pay no Council Tax in 2025-26, but if they moved across the border to North Lincolnshire they would have to pay nearly £1,400
November 20, 2025 at 11:56 AM
This has caused large discrepancies in the amount of Council Tax similar families pay. A family living in a Band D property and receiving the maximum CTR in Doncaster would pay no Council Tax in 2025-26, but if they moved across the border to North Lincolnshire they would have to pay nearly £1,400
Funding was based on 90% of projected CTB spending but was never ring-fenced. This has meant that, as of 2025-26, 70 per cent of English LAs have cut the generosity of their schemes compared to the old Council Tax Benefit and spending has fallen
November 20, 2025 at 11:56 AM
Funding was based on 90% of projected CTB spending but was never ring-fenced. This has meant that, as of 2025-26, 70 per cent of English LAs have cut the generosity of their schemes compared to the old Council Tax Benefit and spending has fallen
But the type of support that local authorities have provided with this funding varies a lot within the categories permitted in the guidance, and doesn’t seem to follow any geographical pattern
November 20, 2025 at 11:56 AM
But the type of support that local authorities have provided with this funding varies a lot within the categories permitted in the guidance, and doesn’t seem to follow any geographical pattern
Unlike for Local Welfare Assistance, Household Support Fund allocations to local authorities were ring-fenced and based on population and levels of deprivation, meaning spending has broadly followed need
November 20, 2025 at 11:56 AM
Unlike for Local Welfare Assistance, Household Support Fund allocations to local authorities were ring-fenced and based on population and levels of deprivation, meaning spending has broadly followed need
Before 2013-14, discretionary crisis support was mostly delivered through the UK-wide Social Fund. This was localised in England in 2013 (as Local Welfare Assistance) and devolved to the other UK nations.
November 20, 2025 at 11:56 AM
Before 2013-14, discretionary crisis support was mostly delivered through the UK-wide Social Fund. This was localised in England in 2013 (as Local Welfare Assistance) and devolved to the other UK nations.
Annual spending on localised support in the UK averaged £33 million in each year between 2001-02 and 2012-13 (in 2025-26 prices) but jumped to £3.4 billion in 2013-14, reached a peak of £4.2 billion in 2021-22.
November 20, 2025 at 11:56 AM
Annual spending on localised support in the UK averaged £33 million in each year between 2001-02 and 2012-13 (in 2025-26 prices) but jumped to £3.4 billion in 2013-14, reached a peak of £4.2 billion in 2021-22.
So, while there has been a rise in people claiming incapacity benefits in the last few years, the uptick in the increase beginning in 2024 does appear to be a result of the start of previous ESA recipients being migrated to UC.
November 11, 2025 at 4:45 PM
So, while there has been a rise in people claiming incapacity benefits in the last few years, the uptick in the increase beginning in 2024 does appear to be a result of the start of previous ESA recipients being migrated to UC.
This means that the claimants most likely to be working were mostly migrated to UC at the beginning of the programme in 2023, and the claimants most likely to be not working due to health reasons were migrated towards the end
November 11, 2025 at 4:45 PM
This means that the claimants most likely to be working were mostly migrated to UC at the beginning of the programme in 2023, and the claimants most likely to be not working due to health reasons were migrated towards the end
New Universal Credit statistics today show the % of claimants in the ‘no work requirements’ conditionality group has continued to rise to 49%, and the proportion in work has fallen to 33%. This is likely to be written up as ‘a rise in claimants not required to work’, but context is very important! 🧵
November 11, 2025 at 4:45 PM
New Universal Credit statistics today show the % of claimants in the ‘no work requirements’ conditionality group has continued to rise to 49%, and the proportion in work has fallen to 33%. This is likely to be written up as ‘a rise in claimants not required to work’, but context is very important! 🧵
The status quo would leave this Government on track for the worst performance on child poverty of any Labour Government in 60 years. Fully scrapping the 2-child limit is essential to get child poverty falling, but they would need to go further to guarantee success against uncertain forecasts.
October 30, 2025 at 9:09 AM
The status quo would leave this Government on track for the worst performance on child poverty of any Labour Government in 60 years. Fully scrapping the 2-child limit is essential to get child poverty falling, but they would need to go further to guarantee success against uncertain forecasts.
These 3 reforms together would be a powerful programme to reduce child poverty over the Parliament. We estimate they would drive down child poverty rates from 31% in 2024-25 to 29.5% in 2029-30, equivalent to 660,000 fewer children in poverty in 2029-30 than would be the case absent of any action
October 30, 2025 at 9:09 AM
These 3 reforms together would be a powerful programme to reduce child poverty over the Parliament. We estimate they would drive down child poverty rates from 31% in 2024-25 to 29.5% in 2029-30, equivalent to 660,000 fewer children in poverty in 2029-30 than would be the case absent of any action
However, our projections show all of these partial-repeal alternatives would leave child poverty rates higher at the end of the forecast period than at the beginning (just under 32 per cent compared to just under 31 per cent in 2024-25)
October 30, 2025 at 9:09 AM
However, our projections show all of these partial-repeal alternatives would leave child poverty rates higher at the end of the forecast period than at the beginning (just under 32 per cent compared to just under 31 per cent in 2024-25)
The Child Poverty Strategy is finally coming next month. There have already been welcome announcements on extending Free School Meals and over-indexing the UC standard allowance, but our latest projections show these are not enough to prevent child poverty reaching a record high in 2029-30
October 30, 2025 at 9:09 AM
The Child Poverty Strategy is finally coming next month. There have already been welcome announcements on extending Free School Meals and over-indexing the UC standard allowance, but our latest projections show these are not enough to prevent child poverty reaching a record high in 2029-30
And none of the rumoured options is as cost-effective in lifting children out of poverty as fully scrapping the two-child limit, which would cost £7,480 per child lifted out of poverty (the other options range from £7,540 to £10,520.
October 1, 2025 at 11:26 AM
And none of the rumoured options is as cost-effective in lifting children out of poverty as fully scrapping the two-child limit, which would cost £7,480 per child lifted out of poverty (the other options range from £7,540 to £10,520.
And data on ethnicity of affected households suggests Asian and Black families are over-represented among those affected by the two-child limit, though the big caveat here is that 37% reported their ethnicity as other or did not specify
July 14, 2025 at 10:26 AM
And data on ethnicity of affected households suggests Asian and Black families are over-represented among those affected by the two-child limit, though the big caveat here is that 37% reported their ethnicity as other or did not specify
Data on the age of the youngest child in affected households reminds us that this is a policy that currently affects young children, due to the nature of the roll-out:
July 14, 2025 at 10:26 AM
Data on the age of the youngest child in affected households reminds us that this is a policy that currently affects young children, due to the nature of the roll-out:
40 per cent of households affected by the two-child limit are receiving a health or disability benefit, and 1 in 4 affected households has a child who is receiving a disability benefit or is blind
July 14, 2025 at 10:26 AM
40 per cent of households affected by the two-child limit are receiving a health or disability benefit, and 1 in 4 affected households has a child who is receiving a disability benefit or is blind