Alan Mossman 💚
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alanmossman.bsky.social
Alan Mossman 💚
@alanmossman.bsky.social
670 followers 1.7K following 520 posts
💚 grampy, electric 🚴🏻, occasional ✍️🎨, walker, construction as a social production process en 🇫🇷, … oh!, & writing on Why Construction is Broken.
Born Bristol (310 ppm), Lee-on-Solent, Sherborne, Liverpool, DC, Manchester, London, living in Stroud
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alanmossman.bsky.social
Each polling co uses different ways to sample & to poll. We won't know which is best until a GE.



A poll of polls may give a better idea of trends:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion...

this shows:

R: now declining
L: cont decline
C: slow growth
G: growing fast
LD: cont decline

Please see ALT txt
This poll of polls graph shows the trends for each of the major UK parties since the last General Election. Last updated on 29 November, it is from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_graph_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_(post-2024).svg It shows that Reform grew steadily following the last General Election but their numbers now appear to have levelled off at just over 30% and now it is clear they are declining. Currently on around 18.5%, Labour support continues to decline at about 1% per month while support for the Tories, currently on around 18% continues to grow slowly. (Historically, I am told, Labour have come out better in polls than in reality, and Tories worse.) Now at just over 15%, support for The Green Party continues to grow at around 1.5% per month. The LibDems continue to declined and are now on around 12.5%. If, and it’s a big if, current trends continue, Green Party results could overtake those of both Labour and Conservatives before the end of January 2026 — and possibly before the end of this year, 2025. I will try to repost this on a weekly basis with additional information here in the ALT text
November 30, 2025 at 4:42 PM
alanmossman.bsky.social
November 16, 2025 at 10:59 PM
alanmossman.bsky.social
There is always variation between polls that each use different ways to sample & to poll. We won't know which is best until a General Election.

It isn't worth speculating or being optimistic.

A poll of polls can give a clearer idea of trends:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion...

Please read ALT txt
This poll of polls graph shows the trends for each of the major UK parties since the last General Election. Last updated on the 16th of November, it is from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_graph_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_(post-2024).svg It shows the Greens on around 15% are on the up and have recently overtaken the LibDems who have slowly declined over the last six months to around 13%. Currently on around 18% Labour have lost support considerably faster than the Tories currently on around 17.5%. Historically Labour have come out better in polls than in reality, and Tories worse. Until recently Reform have grown steadily since the last General Election but their numbers now appear to have levelled out at just over 30%. If, and it’s a big if, current trends continue, Green Party results could overtake those of both Labour and Conservatives before the end of January — and possibly before the end of this year.
November 16, 2025 at 10:58 PM
alanmossman.bsky.social
There is always variation between polls that use different ways to sample & to poll. We won't know which is most accurate until a General Election.


It isn't worth speculating or being optimistic.


A poll of polls may give a clearer idea of trends:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion...

read ALT
This poll of polls graph with data to 8 November 2025 shows the trends for each of the major UK parties since the last General Election. It is from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_graph_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_(post-2024).svg It shows that the Greens on around 14% are on the up and have recently overtaken the LibDems who have declined recently to around 13%. Currently on around 19% Labour have lost support considerably faster than the Tories currently on around 18%. Historically Labour have come out better in polls than in reality, and Tories worse. Until recently Reform have been climbing since the last General Election but their numbers now appear to have peaked at just over 30% and to be declining. This poll of polls provides a context for thinking about the Savanta poll of 18-25 year olds.
November 12, 2025 at 2:13 PM
alanmossman.bsky.social
There is always variation between polls. They use different ways to sample & to poll. We won't know which is most accurate until a General Election.


It isn't worth speculating or being optimistic.


A poll of polls may give a clearer idea of trends:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion...

read ALT
This poll of polls graph with data to 8 November 2025 shows the trends for each of the major UK parties since the last General Election. It is from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_graph_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_(post-2024).svg It shows that the Greens on around 14% are on the up and have recently overtaken the LibDems who have declined recently to around 13%. Currently on around 19% Labour have lost support considerably faster than the Tories who are currently on around 18%. Historically Labour have come out better in polls than in reality, and Tories worse. Until recently Reform have been climbing since the last General Election but their numbers now appear to have peaked at just over 30% and to be declining.
November 12, 2025 at 2:07 PM
alanmossman.bsky.social
There is always variation between polls that use different ways to sample & to poll. We won't know which is most accurate until a General Election.


It isn't worth speculating or being optimistic.


A poll of polls may give a clearer idea of trends e.g.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion...

read ALT
This poll of polls graph from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_graph_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_(post-2024).svg on 11 November shows the trends for each of the major UK parties since the last General Election. The graph uses data for a wide range of polling organisations. It shows that the Greens on around 14% are on the up and have recently overtaken the LibDems who have declined recently to around 13%. Currently on around 19% Labour have lost support considerably faster than the Tories currently on around 18%. Reform have been climbing until very recently but their numbers appear to have peaked at just over 30%.
November 11, 2025 at 7:56 PM
alanmossman.bsky.social
There is always variation between polls. They use different sampling & polling methods. We won't know which is the most accurate until a general election.

It isn't worth speculating or being optimistic.

The most reliable estimate is likely to be a poll of polls:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion...
This poll of polls graph from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_graph_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_(post-2024).svg shows the trends for each of the major UK parties since the last General Election. It shows that the Greens on around 14% are on the up and have recently overtaken the LibDems who have declined recently to around 13%. Currently on around 19% Labour have lost support considerably faster than the Tories currently on around 18%. Reform have been climbing until recently but their numbers appear to have peaked at just over 30%
November 11, 2025 at 7:40 PM
alanmossman.bsky.social
Is this a door to a future you want?

join.greenparty.org.uk
November 11, 2025 at 10:02 AM
alanmossman.bsky.social
The @greenparty.org.uk member @rupertread.bsky.social posted this in another place around noon today.

👍💚👍💚👍

Green membership is now greater than membership of the Tory party.
October 18, 2025 at 2:50 PM
alanmossman.bsky.social
Brilliant 🤣
August 2, 2025 at 7:11 AM
alanmossman.bsky.social
good discursive thread here by @bronwenjones.bsky.social

Like other major political parties @greenparty.org.uk is a broad church. It’s important for us Greens to continue building awareness of the social, economic and environmental distinctiveness of our Party.

There’s much more to it than this:
July 31, 2025 at 9:21 AM
alanmossman.bsky.social
Our Grandchildren’s Climate www.ourgrandchildrensclimate.org, the UK branch of a growing European network.

1st newsletter available on the homepage, as is how to join

Suggestions for armchair actions: www.ourgrandchildrensclimate.org/armchair-act...
grandfather with walking stick walking slowly along woodland path hand-in-hand with young grandchild with gate to field ahead on the path
July 31, 2025 at 9:06 AM
alanmossman.bsky.social
Stroud Greens win Severn Ward by-election by 14 votes on a 26.8% turnout.

Moya Shannon is the new councillor.

Severn is a 2 seat ward & in the District elections in 2024 Labour and the Tories won a seat each. The by-election was called following the death of Richard Maisey (LAB)
June 11, 2025 at 11:30 PM
alanmossman.bsky.social
👇👇👇 do sign …

… and remember …
The image shows text which reads “if Trump really believed Zelensky was a dictator, he’d be idolising him. That’s the tell.”
February 20, 2025 at 9:24 PM
alanmossman.bsky.social
Something like this?
February 8, 2025 at 2:17 PM
alanmossman.bsky.social
At Lansdown Hall this Sunday 26 Jan 2-3pm
January 25, 2025 at 8:40 AM
alanmossman.bsky.social
The Great Western Railway GWR contract has a break clause in June this year as detailed in this article from @privateeyenews.bsky.social

If you think GWR should be renationalised now rather than wait, please repost this message.

Thanks 🙏

@heidialexander.bsky.social what are you going to do?
This article from private eye 1640 explains among other things that the contract for Great Western Railway GWR runs until June 2028 with a possible break in June 2025. It is not yet clear what Transport secretary, Heidi Alexander, will do.
January 15, 2025 at 5:00 PM
alanmossman.bsky.social
Kier Starmer has no presence on bsky.social

Please help Chris Packham get this message across to Starmer & get Gaie Delap, the woman with small wrists, released.

Gaie's MP @carladenyer.bsky.social has tried 💚

x.com/ChrisGPackha...

www.channel4.com/news/77-year...

@chrisgpackham.bsky.social
In this message to Kier Starmer Chris Packham writes: I hope you are having a good start to Christmas. I didn't know who else to write to so I'm hoping you can help. Please make some calls and get this poor woman out of prison for Christmas. This doesn't reflect well on the UK. Note 1: 77 year old Gaie Delap has been taken to prison because the company that was supposed to tag her doesn't have a tag small enough for her wrists. Note 2: The policy Gaie was campaigning for - no new oil and gas extraction licences - is now government policy This shows a photo of Gaie Delap over the headline from Channel 4 News "77-year-old Gaie Delap Just Stop Oil protester recalled to prison for Christmas." the article continues "77-year-old Gaie Delap was sentenced to 20 months in prison over a climate protest ..."
December 21, 2024 at 10:25 PM
alanmossman.bsky.social
When work is done on highways warning signs are often placed in a way that obstructs the pavement.

Signs in the roadway will restrict the carriageway and slow vehicles down as they approach the road works reducing the likelihood of accidents involving workers.
road works signs blocking a pavement road works signs blocking a pavement road works signs blocking a pavement
December 9, 2024 at 6:40 PM
alanmossman.bsky.social
People who worked on BP Andrew took what they learnt to Australia - initially in oil & gas and subsequently in public sector infrastructure

it was only in the early 2000s that the ideas started to be used in California and combined with lean construction on healthcare IPD projects

see alt.txt
This diagram from Zofia Rybkowski’s PhD thesis (2009) compares how costs typically change over time in design-bid-build and Integrated Project Delivery. On design-bid-build projects costs typically increase as the project progresses — designers design without good information about cost of building and once the builder starts to build cost continue to increase as claims are made in relation to items that were not anticipated in the design. With Integrated Project Delivery IPD it is in everyone’s interest to keep costs down. Constructors are involved from the start so the designers have cost information from someone with ‘skin-in-the-game’ who can also advise of the costs of different construction methods.
December 7, 2024 at 9:19 PM
alanmossman.bsky.social
The origins of IPD are in the UK private sector. The BP Andrew project was delivered using a Project Alliance in the early 1990s. It used shared risk and reward to ensure that each delivery partner’s profit was linked to the profit of all the others as illustrated below:
The figure shows how the profit or loss on the BP Andrew project was to be shared once the project was completed in the early 1990s. The designers and constructors share was to be split in agreed proportions. If the project was delivered more than £27m over the agreed target cost the delivery partners risk was capped. There was no cap on the contractors additional profit if they delivered for less than the agreed target cost. By linking everyone’s profit it was in each es rests to help the whole team save money. The team delivered early and well below the agreed target cost.
December 7, 2024 at 9:19 PM
alanmossman.bsky.social
My first woodcut in many a long year
November 23, 2024 at 1:18 PM