Aidan Milliff
@aidanmilliff.com
Political scientist
https://www.aidanmilliff.com
https://www.aidanmilliff.com
🚨 New in @bjpols.bsky.social :
“Estimating the Impact of Drone Strikes on Civilians Using Call Detail Records.”
By Bertolotti, Milliff, Christia & Jadbabaie.
We use 12 billion call records from Yemen to measure the civilian consequences of drone warfare.
1/6
“Estimating the Impact of Drone Strikes on Civilians Using Call Detail Records.”
By Bertolotti, Milliff, Christia & Jadbabaie.
We use 12 billion call records from Yemen to measure the civilian consequences of drone warfare.
1/6
November 4, 2025 at 3:18 PM
🚨 New in @bjpols.bsky.social :
“Estimating the Impact of Drone Strikes on Civilians Using Call Detail Records.”
By Bertolotti, Milliff, Christia & Jadbabaie.
We use 12 billion call records from Yemen to measure the civilian consequences of drone warfare.
1/6
“Estimating the Impact of Drone Strikes on Civilians Using Call Detail Records.”
By Bertolotti, Milliff, Christia & Jadbabaie.
We use 12 billion call records from Yemen to measure the civilian consequences of drone warfare.
1/6
Very short summary of this paper:
September 19, 2025 at 7:25 PM
Very short summary of this paper:
It's important to remember the 🐺 Wolf Number 🐺
In 2021 @today.yougov.com found that 12% of Americans said they'd beat a wolf in an unarmed fight ⁉️
When you see a survey response split 85/15, remember: 12% of people will say literally anything on a survey.
today.yougov.com/society/arti...
In 2021 @today.yougov.com found that 12% of Americans said they'd beat a wolf in an unarmed fight ⁉️
When you see a survey response split 85/15, remember: 12% of people will say literally anything on a survey.
today.yougov.com/society/arti...
September 17, 2025 at 1:41 PM
It's important to remember the 🐺 Wolf Number 🐺
In 2021 @today.yougov.com found that 12% of Americans said they'd beat a wolf in an unarmed fight ⁉️
When you see a survey response split 85/15, remember: 12% of people will say literally anything on a survey.
today.yougov.com/society/arti...
In 2021 @today.yougov.com found that 12% of Americans said they'd beat a wolf in an unarmed fight ⁉️
When you see a survey response split 85/15, remember: 12% of people will say literally anything on a survey.
today.yougov.com/society/arti...
Modest #APSA2025 proposal:
Move all panels, receptions, meetings, etc. to Stanley Park. Just describe the tree you are meeting under, and count on everyone to find you.
Move all panels, receptions, meetings, etc. to Stanley Park. Just describe the tree you are meeting under, and count on everyone to find you.
September 11, 2025 at 5:03 PM
Modest #APSA2025 proposal:
Move all panels, receptions, meetings, etc. to Stanley Park. Just describe the tree you are meeting under, and count on everyone to find you.
Move all panels, receptions, meetings, etc. to Stanley Park. Just describe the tree you are meeting under, and count on everyone to find you.
🤔
(I really don't think India is interested in the opportunity to be a treaty ally with the US if they have to drop historic partners who aren't currently imposing tariffs on their exports to do so)
(I really don't think India is interested in the opportunity to be a treaty ally with the US if they have to drop historic partners who aren't currently imposing tariffs on their exports to do so)
September 6, 2025 at 2:24 PM
🤔
(I really don't think India is interested in the opportunity to be a treaty ally with the US if they have to drop historic partners who aren't currently imposing tariffs on their exports to do so)
(I really don't think India is interested in the opportunity to be a treaty ally with the US if they have to drop historic partners who aren't currently imposing tariffs on their exports to do so)
Syllabus plug! Here's what I assign on how to give feedback (of which peer reviews are a special type, imo)
September 1, 2025 at 7:19 PM
Syllabus plug! Here's what I assign on how to give feedback (of which peer reviews are a special type, imo)
Drones cause major disruption, even without civilian casualties.
• Nearby mobility jumps 24% on strike days
• 5.3% of exposed people leave their homes
• 1.2% remain displaced for over a month
Drones cause more displacement than similarly-deadly suicide bombings, gun attacks.
🧵: 2/3
• Nearby mobility jumps 24% on strike days
• 5.3% of exposed people leave their homes
• 1.2% remain displaced for over a month
Drones cause more displacement than similarly-deadly suicide bombings, gun attacks.
🧵: 2/3
August 20, 2025 at 7:48 PM
Drones cause major disruption, even without civilian casualties.
• Nearby mobility jumps 24% on strike days
• 5.3% of exposed people leave their homes
• 1.2% remain displaced for over a month
Drones cause more displacement than similarly-deadly suicide bombings, gun attacks.
🧵: 2/3
• Nearby mobility jumps 24% on strike days
• 5.3% of exposed people leave their homes
• 1.2% remain displaced for over a month
Drones cause more displacement than similarly-deadly suicide bombings, gun attacks.
🧵: 2/3
🚨 Just accepted at @bjpols.bsky.social!
Paolo Bertolotti, Fotini Christia, Ali Jadbabaie, and I use 12 billion Yemeni cellphone records to study the effects of U.S. drone strikes on civilian mobility and displacement.
We Find:
🧵: 1/3
Paolo Bertolotti, Fotini Christia, Ali Jadbabaie, and I use 12 billion Yemeni cellphone records to study the effects of U.S. drone strikes on civilian mobility and displacement.
We Find:
🧵: 1/3
August 20, 2025 at 7:48 PM
🚨 Just accepted at @bjpols.bsky.social!
Paolo Bertolotti, Fotini Christia, Ali Jadbabaie, and I use 12 billion Yemeni cellphone records to study the effects of U.S. drone strikes on civilian mobility and displacement.
We Find:
🧵: 1/3
Paolo Bertolotti, Fotini Christia, Ali Jadbabaie, and I use 12 billion Yemeni cellphone records to study the effects of U.S. drone strikes on civilian mobility and displacement.
We Find:
🧵: 1/3
How amazing is ChatGPT! I just tried turning publishers' citation manual PDFs into .bst files.
It's a super efficient way to make all your LaTeX citations show up like this:
The future is amazing.
It's a super efficient way to make all your LaTeX citations show up like this:
The future is amazing.
August 19, 2025 at 7:41 PM
How amazing is ChatGPT! I just tried turning publishers' citation manual PDFs into .bst files.
It's a super efficient way to make all your LaTeX citations show up like this:
The future is amazing.
It's a super efficient way to make all your LaTeX citations show up like this:
The future is amazing.
I think the subgroup results in A3 (STEM vs. non-STEM) is consistent with the possibility that some of this effect is driven by things like SB 266 (affects some fields more directly than others) rather than PTR (universal)
May 23, 2025 at 8:59 PM
I think the subgroup results in A3 (STEM vs. non-STEM) is consistent with the possibility that some of this effect is driven by things like SB 266 (affects some fields more directly than others) rather than PTR (universal)
It's unclear whether university administrators have realized the importance of "hanging together" to protect research and education.
Until they do, one thing individual faculty can do is join organizations like @aaup.bsky.social, *AND* their unions (if they exist).
Until they do, one thing individual faculty can do is join organizations like @aaup.bsky.social, *AND* their unions (if they exist).
March 11, 2025 at 2:24 PM
It's unclear whether university administrators have realized the importance of "hanging together" to protect research and education.
Until they do, one thing individual faculty can do is join organizations like @aaup.bsky.social, *AND* their unions (if they exist).
Until they do, one thing individual faculty can do is join organizations like @aaup.bsky.social, *AND* their unions (if they exist).
Just for context:
Historians estimate that over 15m people fled their homes in partition.
Around 1m of them died.
www.newyorker.com/magazine/201...
Historians estimate that over 15m people fled their homes in partition.
Around 1m of them died.
www.newyorker.com/magazine/201...
February 13, 2025 at 12:28 PM
Just for context:
Historians estimate that over 15m people fled their homes in partition.
Around 1m of them died.
www.newyorker.com/magazine/201...
Historians estimate that over 15m people fled their homes in partition.
Around 1m of them died.
www.newyorker.com/magazine/201...
Finally, what communities does this hit the hardest? The ten universities that will see the biggest shortfalls (as a percent of univ. budget) are in:
- TX
- PA
- NC (x2)
- MO
- CT
- IL
- NY
- MD
- CA
(univ. data from most recent find-able public budgets and F&A costs)
- TX
- PA
- NC (x2)
- MO
- CT
- IL
- NY
- MD
- CA
(univ. data from most recent find-able public budgets and F&A costs)
February 8, 2025 at 4:57 PM
Finally, what communities does this hit the hardest? The ten universities that will see the biggest shortfalls (as a percent of univ. budget) are in:
- TX
- PA
- NC (x2)
- MO
- CT
- IL
- NY
- MD
- CA
(univ. data from most recent find-able public budgets and F&A costs)
- TX
- PA
- NC (x2)
- MO
- CT
- IL
- NY
- MD
- CA
(univ. data from most recent find-able public budgets and F&A costs)
Here's a good infographic from AAUP on what indirect costs fund. It's a lot of important things!
February 8, 2025 at 4:30 PM
Here's a good infographic from AAUP on what indirect costs fund. It's a lot of important things!
Cuts to the NIH are a strategy to strangle research universities not “reduce waste”
February 8, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Cuts to the NIH are a strategy to strangle research universities not “reduce waste”
Planning to write to your reps or university leadership about illegal NIH/NSF/DoS/etc. funding freezes?
Make sure to include local data showing how important federal funding is to your local economy.
NASEB neat little charts for every state and cong. district : www.faseb.org/science-poli...
Make sure to include local data showing how important federal funding is to your local economy.
NASEB neat little charts for every state and cong. district : www.faseb.org/science-poli...
January 28, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Planning to write to your reps or university leadership about illegal NIH/NSF/DoS/etc. funding freezes?
Make sure to include local data showing how important federal funding is to your local economy.
NASEB neat little charts for every state and cong. district : www.faseb.org/science-poli...
Make sure to include local data showing how important federal funding is to your local economy.
NASEB neat little charts for every state and cong. district : www.faseb.org/science-poli...
Incredible but not super surprising! India-Russia ties have very deep roots and the Indian public generally thinks quite highly of Russia. Indians' approval levels are similar-ish for Russia and US over multiple decades.
(these are from a project with @pstaniland.bsky.social)
(these are from a project with @pstaniland.bsky.social)
January 16, 2025 at 4:02 PM
Incredible but not super surprising! India-Russia ties have very deep roots and the Indian public generally thinks quite highly of Russia. Indians' approval levels are similar-ish for Russia and US over multiple decades.
(these are from a project with @pstaniland.bsky.social)
(these are from a project with @pstaniland.bsky.social)
Me: "This paper is solid, I'm feeling like it'll place."
Editorial Manager: "You have said that to me before at this journal, and uh..."
Me: 😐
January 6, 2025 at 4:26 PM
Me: "This paper is solid, I'm feeling like it'll place."
Editorial Manager: "You have said that to me before at this journal, and uh..."
Me: 😐
Returning to Michael Burawoy's American Sociological Association Presidential Address after first reading it a decade ago. I think it's a great read for political scientists feeling a lack of purpose.
Also, I forgot about the epigraph, which is great:
www.jstor.org/stable/41453...
Also, I forgot about the epigraph, which is great:
www.jstor.org/stable/41453...
November 25, 2024 at 11:50 PM
Returning to Michael Burawoy's American Sociological Association Presidential Address after first reading it a decade ago. I think it's a great read for political scientists feeling a lack of purpose.
Also, I forgot about the epigraph, which is great:
www.jstor.org/stable/41453...
Also, I forgot about the epigraph, which is great:
www.jstor.org/stable/41453...
Bluesky now has over 10 million users, and I was #93,086! Lol.
September 17, 2024 at 6:34 PM
Bluesky now has over 10 million users, and I was #93,086! Lol.
How do you design credible, interesting social science research about politics?
I dunno.
But hopefully some of the pieces on this (brand new) syllabus have the answer!
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/7m5mj...
I dunno.
But hopefully some of the pieces on this (brand new) syllabus have the answer!
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/7m5mj...
August 27, 2024 at 12:06 AM
How do you design credible, interesting social science research about politics?
I dunno.
But hopefully some of the pieces on this (brand new) syllabus have the answer!
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/7m5mj...
I dunno.
But hopefully some of the pieces on this (brand new) syllabus have the answer!
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/7m5mj...
Oxford UP should sell these as the "what the h$*l did we do?!?" boxed set.
February 26, 2024 at 1:22 PM
Oxford UP should sell these as the "what the h$*l did we do?!?" boxed set.
Making a cross-walk file for the names of Afghan Districts in two different USG datasets and wondering...might we have lost the war because we didn't know where we were at any given time?
February 21, 2024 at 10:00 PM
Making a cross-walk file for the names of Afghan Districts in two different USG datasets and wondering...might we have lost the war because we didn't know where we were at any given time?
This quote from Feldman Barrett et al. (2007) is about affect/emotion research, but it feels like good advice for a lot of the phenomena that polisky studies.
Identifying the causes of X does not substitute for understanding how X is experienced!
Identifying the causes of X does not substitute for understanding how X is experienced!
February 5, 2024 at 6:10 PM
This quote from Feldman Barrett et al. (2007) is about affect/emotion research, but it feels like good advice for a lot of the phenomena that polisky studies.
Identifying the causes of X does not substitute for understanding how X is experienced!
Identifying the causes of X does not substitute for understanding how X is experienced!
I use some cool new ML tools to measure people's appraisals (interpretations) in oral history text in both English and Punjabi, and find support for my argument: People's appraisals are *strongly* connected to their strategy preferences.
February 1, 2024 at 9:18 PM
I use some cool new ML tools to measure people's appraisals (interpretations) in oral history text in both English and Punjabi, and find support for my argument: People's appraisals are *strongly* connected to their strategy preferences.