Adam Kucharski
@adamjkucharski.bsky.social
Epidemiologist/mathematician. Professor at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Author of The Rules of Contagion and The Perfect Bet. Views own.
New book Proof: The Uncertain Science of Certainty available now: proof.kucharski.io
New book Proof: The Uncertain Science of Certainty available now: proof.kucharski.io
Alanis Morissette's new tracks just aren't the same
November 11, 2025 at 10:32 PM
Alanis Morissette's new tracks just aren't the same
How to be taken seriously as a junior data scientist: www.divingintodata.com/p/how-to-be-...
November 11, 2025 at 8:54 PM
How to be taken seriously as a junior data scientist: www.divingintodata.com/p/how-to-be-...
Literal shot: Questionable methodological chaser:
November 10, 2025 at 8:51 PM
Literal shot: Questionable methodological chaser:
Proof has hit 100 Amazon reviews! Thanks to everyone who's liked the book and been kind enough to leave one. (Also nice to see that it remains the highest rated of my 3 books.)
November 10, 2025 at 8:32 PM
Proof has hit 100 Amazon reviews! Thanks to everyone who's liked the book and been kind enough to leave one. (Also nice to see that it remains the highest rated of my 3 books.)
The 2020 papers also had a lot of dodgy (but testable) claims that were later quietly disowned...
November 10, 2025 at 2:11 PM
The 2020 papers also had a lot of dodgy (but testable) claims that were later quietly disowned...
This is fascinating, can't believe I hadn't seen it before – 'it is not a fallacy to believe in the hot hand'
November 10, 2025 at 12:58 PM
This is fascinating, can't believe I hadn't seen it before – 'it is not a fallacy to believe in the hot hand'
Some thought-provoking reflections on USAID: www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
November 10, 2025 at 12:25 PM
Some thought-provoking reflections on USAID: www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
What happened when I dug into some of the key studies and ideas quoted in The Tipping Point and its sequel… kucharski.substack.com/p/the-real-r...
November 9, 2025 at 1:44 PM
What happened when I dug into some of the key studies and ideas quoted in The Tipping Point and its sequel… kucharski.substack.com/p/the-real-r...
How common do you think something is? When asked to judge proportions, people's estimates can be drawn towards their prior expectations of what the 'typical' value is. The result can be an overestimate of low proportions, and an underestimate of high ones... link.springer.com/article/10.3...
November 5, 2025 at 11:28 AM
How common do you think something is? When asked to judge proportions, people's estimates can be drawn towards their prior expectations of what the 'typical' value is. The result can be an overestimate of low proportions, and an underestimate of high ones... link.springer.com/article/10.3...
Could probably have phrased better, but was thinking of stuff like this (from: www.nejm.org/doi/full/10....)
November 3, 2025 at 9:31 PM
Could probably have phrased better, but was thinking of stuff like this (from: www.nejm.org/doi/full/10....)
Got curious about what was happening* on Threads these days.
*or not, it seems
*or not, it seems
November 3, 2025 at 9:05 PM
Got curious about what was happening* on Threads these days.
*or not, it seems
*or not, it seems
Doing some origami with my 4 year old earlier and asked him what we should make next.
Him: “I’d like a rocket…”
Me: *starts looking up origami rockets*
Him: “…with a fox driving it"
Him: “I’d like a rocket…”
Me: *starts looking up origami rockets*
Him: “…with a fox driving it"
November 2, 2025 at 8:35 PM
Doing some origami with my 4 year old earlier and asked him what we should make next.
Him: “I’d like a rocket…”
Me: *starts looking up origami rockets*
Him: “…with a fox driving it"
Him: “I’d like a rocket…”
Me: *starts looking up origami rockets*
Him: “…with a fox driving it"
New post, on the time Einstein had his first run in with the US peer review system: kucharski.substack.com/p/einstein-v...
November 2, 2025 at 10:27 AM
New post, on the time Einstein had his first run in with the US peer review system: kucharski.substack.com/p/einstein-v...
Why analysis informing a decision shouldn’t try and predict the decision it’s informing: kucharski.substack.com/p/why-do-peo...
November 1, 2025 at 10:34 AM
Why analysis informing a decision shouldn’t try and predict the decision it’s informing: kucharski.substack.com/p/why-do-peo...
Delighted that Waterstones have named Proof one of the Best Popular Science Books of 2025! www.waterstones.com/blog/the-bes...
October 29, 2025 at 10:16 PM
Delighted that Waterstones have named Proof one of the Best Popular Science Books of 2025! www.waterstones.com/blog/the-bes...
Language models are terrible at counting (part 12381...)
It's concerning how many workflows/copilots etc. these tools are now creeping into, despite making small numerical errors all over the place (which a causal eye might not catch).
Below from GPT-5 and Sonnet-4.5:
It's concerning how many workflows/copilots etc. these tools are now creeping into, despite making small numerical errors all over the place (which a causal eye might not catch).
Below from GPT-5 and Sonnet-4.5:
October 29, 2025 at 10:36 AM
Language models are terrible at counting (part 12381...)
It's concerning how many workflows/copilots etc. these tools are now creeping into, despite making small numerical errors all over the place (which a causal eye might not catch).
Below from GPT-5 and Sonnet-4.5:
It's concerning how many workflows/copilots etc. these tools are now creeping into, despite making small numerical errors all over the place (which a causal eye might not catch).
Below from GPT-5 and Sonnet-4.5:
Still, better than the 6% of Americans who think they could beat a Grizzly, I guess...
October 29, 2025 at 9:29 AM
Still, better than the 6% of Americans who think they could beat a Grizzly, I guess...
Seem 1 in 5 young adults reckon they could win, or aren't sure they *couldn't*...
October 29, 2025 at 9:29 AM
Seem 1 in 5 young adults reckon they could win, or aren't sure they *couldn't*...
OK, own up 2 percenters...
October 29, 2025 at 9:29 AM
OK, own up 2 percenters...
New post on poker, decision-support tools and why people conflate epidemic scenarios with forecasts: kucharski.substack.com/p/why-do-peo...
October 29, 2025 at 8:33 AM
New post on poker, decision-support tools and why people conflate epidemic scenarios with forecasts: kucharski.substack.com/p/why-do-peo...
TIL Tom Daley's wikipedia views create a podium coinciding with his medals: leobenedictus.substack.com/p/who-is-the...
October 24, 2025 at 3:18 PM
TIL Tom Daley's wikipedia views create a podium coinciding with his medals: leobenedictus.substack.com/p/who-is-the...
Not you too Claude
October 23, 2025 at 3:46 PM
Not you too Claude
I do wonder what will happen after years of heavy AI users receive every statement prefixed with clappy-toddler-encouragement. I find this stuff extremely annoying/inefficient/insincere, but presumably it's being selected strongly in the reinforcement learning from human feedback...
October 23, 2025 at 8:57 AM
I do wonder what will happen after years of heavy AI users receive every statement prefixed with clappy-toddler-encouragement. I find this stuff extremely annoying/inefficient/insincere, but presumably it's being selected strongly in the reinforcement learning from human feedback...
"The Kasai outbreak emphasises the case that genomic stasis might be a recurring feature of Ebola virus ecology. A lineage that is virtually unchanged since 1976 challenges assumptions about Ebola's evolution and exposes the blind spots of surveillance."
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
October 21, 2025 at 3:03 PM
"The Kasai outbreak emphasises the case that genomic stasis might be a recurring feature of Ebola virus ecology. A lineage that is virtually unchanged since 1976 challenges assumptions about Ebola's evolution and exposes the blind spots of surveillance."
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...