Simon Otjes
@simonotjes.bsky.social
5.9K followers 4.2K following 730 posts

Political Scientist | Associate Professor of Dutch Politics at Leiden University | Editor Acta Politica | Political Parties | Voting | Parliaments | Interest Groups | Electoral Systems | Local Politics

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Business 9%
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simonotjes.bsky.social
10 Predictions about the coming five years:

1) All Palestinians will be forced to leave Gaza by the Israelis with US support. It will be occupied by Israeli colonists.

simonotjes.bsky.social
The bird (a seagull is PVV). I'm not sure about BIJ1 and AOC, given that AOC has a seat congress and is actually a very important voice in the country and BIJ1 has no seat and no public prominence

simonotjes.bsky.social
Dutch Politics for Americans.

Updated for the 2025 Dutch elections

simonotjes.bsky.social
Dat dit vaak voorkomt is toch zorgwekkend niet politics as usual

simonotjes.bsky.social
Noemen we dit voortaan een korte Rob

simonotjes.bsky.social
Kan je een ander voorbeeld geven?

Bij het Kieskompas zou dit niet mogelijk zijn

simonotjes.bsky.social
Maar in de stemwijzer staat iets anders. Is dat dan een Robje?

simonotjes.bsky.social
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hnoten.bsky.social
D66 doet ook een Eerdmansje: links-progressief in de Stemwijzer maar lekker rechts in de doorrekening.

Reposted by Simon Otjes

hnoten.bsky.social
D66 doet ook een Eerdmansje: links-progressief in de Stemwijzer maar lekker rechts in de doorrekening.

wepsocial.bsky.social
💥Online first:

"How populist citizens see the people and their place in representative democracy"

by Rosa Kindt @robert-a-huber.bsky.social & @kristofjacobs1.bsky.social

doi.org/10.1080/0140...
Abstract of the article "How populist citizens see the people and their place in representative democracy" by Rosa Kindt, Robert A. Huber and Kristof Jacobs. Published online first in West European Politics. Figure 2, displaying the comparison of high and low populists' marginal means on whether politicians belong to the people. Figure 3, displaying the comparison of marginal means per attribute on the economical dimension in relation to 'belonging to the people'. Figure 4, displaying the comparison of marginal means per attribute on the cultural dimension in relation to 'belonging to the people'.

Reposted by Simon Otjes

bjpols.bsky.social
#OpenAccess from August 2025 -

Media Platforming and the Normalisation of Extreme Right Views - cup.org/4mmVIAL

"exposure to uncritical interviews increases agreement with extreme statements and perceptions of broader support in the population"

- @dianebolet.bsky.social & @florianfoos.bsky.social
BJPolS abstract discussing the effects of extensive media exposure on public perceptions and normalization. It references specific research surveys conducted on Sky News UK and Australia, analyzing changes in public attitudes and policy effects due to media strategies.

Reposted by Simon Otjes

Reposted by Simon Otjes

Reposted by Simon Otjes

lucstultiens.bsky.social
(1/9) Vandaag verschijnt de doorrekening van alle verkiezingsprogramma's.

GroenLinks-PvdA laat duidelijk zien hoe we Nederland socialer en duurzamer kunnen maken.

Een draadje met de belangrijkste resultaten:

simonotjes.bsky.social
Het kan zijn dat ze andere peilingen hebben dan wij.

simonotjes.bsky.social
Matthijs Rooduijn en ik kijken naar de electorale logica van D66 rechtsere koers op migratie. Het fascinerende is: die is er niet

simonotjes.bsky.social
Zeer goede vraag. Dat kan eigenlijk alleen maar als een van de items anders geflipt is. Maar ik weet niet hoe het kieskompas de items ingedeeld heeft

simonotjes.bsky.social
Over de schaling vsn het model is kieskompas altijd heel stil

simonotjes.bsky.social
I *love* the CPB data, I previously published with it in Acta Politica and Party Politics. I provides a very detailed insight into what Dutch parties want to do

simonotjes.bsky.social
And the publication is very timely as the new CPB reports are due very soon and will play a major role in the upcoming coalition negotiations

simonotjes.bsky.social
It might also be of interest to practioners as well: when negotiating with multiple parties it is very useful to have an ideologically proximate party at the table

simonotjes.bsky.social
This paper took very long to get published. David and I first discussed this idea at the 2018 ECPR General Conference in Hamburg (!)

simonotjes.bsky.social
Perhaps the most surprising outcome is that these factors don’t matter or at least not consistently: larger parties do not get more of their manifesto in agreements and neither are policies more likely to be in the agreement if parties prioritize them

simonotjes.bsky.social
Our result may seem trivial: the more parties agree the greater the chance of inclusion but it really stands in contrast to the existing literature which emphasizes the importance of size or issue ownership

simonotjes.bsky.social
Using very fine grained data from the Dutch Bureau of Economics Analysis (CPB) where parties register very detailed policy commitments both before the elections and those in the coalitiom agreement, we really tap into how Dutch parties negotiate. We look negotiations between 2006 and 2022

simonotjes.bsky.social
Over the moon to see this paper out in the @ejprjournal.bsky.social David Willumsen and I look at coalition agreements in the Netherlands. We show that the greater the share of negotiating parties that agree on a policy the more likely it ends up in the agreement www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Coalition government formation and policy payoffs | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
Coalition government formation and policy payoffs
www.cambridge.org

simonotjes.bsky.social
peilingwijzer levert *geen* prognoses