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Jonathan Gilligan

Jonathan Gilligan

@jgilligan.org

8.4K followers 2.1K following 4K posts

Integrating social & natural sciences & modeling to study impacts & responses to climate change | Behavioral approaches to climate policy | Nashville TN | They/them 🏳️‍🌈 🏳️‍⚧️ genderqueer | Jew | urban cyclist 🚲 | https://jonathangilligan.org .. more

Environmental science 24%

Physics 17%

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Jonathan Gilligan @jgilligan.org · 6d

I have a new paper in Nature Climate Change (co-authored with many colleagues and led by Bishwajit Mallick): "Future-making beyond (Im)mobility through tethered resilience".

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Future-making beyond (im)mobility through tethered resilience - Nature Climate Change

Adaptation to climate change goes beyond the migration–non-migration divide. Families and communities combine mobility with rootedness, drawing on cultural ties, intergenerational learning, and lived ...

Jonathan Gilligan @jgilligan.org · 1h

Behn did much better in this race than Odessa Kelly, a Black woman who ran for this same seat in 2022 and got 38% of the vote.

This is part of why I don't find your hypothesis about race plausible here.

Jonathan Gilligan @jgilligan.org · 1h

The ONLY explanation you remotely agree with? There's a much simpler and more plausible reason she didn't win. The fucking gerrymander.

Jonathan Gilligan @jgilligan.org · 2h

The American Economic Association has banned Larry Summers for life because of his attempt to abuse mentorship to sexually exploit a colleague, as revealed in Epstein emails.

Let this be a model for dealing with sex pests everywhere.

www.thecrimson.com/article/2025...

American Economic Association Imposes Lifetime Membership Ban on Summers Over Epstein Revelations | News | The Harvard Crimson

The American Economic Association banned former Harvard President Lawrence H. Summers from membership for life on Tuesday, describing his conduct as “fundamentally inconsistent with its standards of p...

www.thecrimson.com

Jonathan Gilligan @jgilligan.org · 2h

I've seen Aftyn consistently showing up for workers. She marched next to me at the AFL-CIO labor day workers' rights protest in September, and she's been a consistent voice in the legislature for working people.

The party should catch up with her, but she's solid.

Jonathan Gilligan @jgilligan.org · 2h

What does that "good take" even mean? I live here and I can't even figure out what it's trying to say.

In which "historically black areas" did she underperform, and to whom are you comparing her performance?

Jonathan Gilligan @jgilligan.org · 3h

"Don't waste any time mourning. Organize!" — Joe Hill

Jonathan Gilligan @jgilligan.org · 3h

Gerrymandering is a two-edged sword. There are a finite number of voters. Rigging blue districts to flip them red means that margins for GOP in that district and neighboring ones become smaller, so a blue shift by voters can flip multiple seats blue in the future.

www.wlrn.org/government-p...

When parties gerrymander districts, they don’t usually try to make them all as lopsided as possible for their own side. Instead, they try to make as many districts as possible that they are likely to win. They do this by spreading groups of supportive voters across several districts so they can help the party win more of these districts.

But sometimes the effort backfires: In trying to maximize their seats, a party spreads its voters too thin and fails to make some districts safe enough. These vulnerable districts can then flip to the other party in future elections, and the opposing party ends up winning more seats than expected.

This phenomenon, commonly referred to as “dummymandering,” has happened before. It even happened in Texas, where Republicans lost a large handful of poorly drawn state legislative districts in the Dallas suburbs in 2018, a strong year for Democrats nationwide.

Jonathan Gilligan @jgilligan.org · 3h

"Scout Motors Wants Direct Sales Because Dealers Hate EVs. The company's execs aren't mincing words about why they're skipping the old ways"

www.edmunds.com/car-news/sco...

www.edmunds.com

Jonathan Gilligan @jgilligan.org · 3h

Because dealers hate EVs and discourage people from buying them, auto manufacturers are pushing to bypass dealers and sell directly to customers.

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Big Carmakers Aim to Take a Page From Tesla and Sell EVs Online

Legacy automakers including VW and Honda are taking their first stab at direct-to-consumer sales that promise to make $60,000 purchases as easy as buying a T-shirt.

www.bloomberg.com

Jonathan Gilligan @jgilligan.org · 3h

A big reason for this is that dealers make a lot of their money on repairs and maintenance, and EVs need a lot less maintenance than internal combustion cars, so they save money for buyers, but hurt dealers' profits.

Jonathan Gilligan @jgilligan.org · 3h

Research finds that dealers consistently try to push buyers away from EVs, often using deception and misinformation.

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Dismissive and deceptive car dealerships create barriers to electric vehicle adoption at the point of sale - Nature Energy

Car dealership experiences may influence EV purchase decisions of the majority of consumers who do not have pre-existing knowledge of EVs. This study shows that car dealerships present barriers to EV ...

Jonathan Gilligan @jgilligan.org · 4h

We will also likely see a lot more rural hospitals closing.

I expect a lot of economic pain in District 7 counties, which could swing more votes away from the party that's causing the pain.

As Joe Hill famously said, "Don't waste any time mourning. Organize!"

Jonathan Gilligan @jgilligan.org · 4h

Trying not to overdo the hopium, but:

Next year District 7 will have an election.

Epps will be vulnerable to the Reagan question: "Are you better off today?"

When Epps is in office, Trump tariffs will really start to bite people's budgets, health insurance will go through the roof, ...

Jonathan Gilligan @jgilligan.org · 4h

Hard to do this when the GOP controls all branches of government.

Reposted by Jonathan M. Gilligan

Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 4h

Identical turnout to 2022, but a completely different universe

13% to the left of 2022/2024 despite midterm-level turnout

Reposted by Jonathan M. Gilligan

Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social · 4h

👀👀👀👀

Jonathan Gilligan @jgilligan.org · 5h

And based on the current vote counts, Behn beat that point spread. As of now, Epps is ahead by 4.8%.

I'm sad for Behn's loss (obv), but this should have GOP very frightened for the implications in other states next fall.

Jonathan Gilligan @jgilligan.org · 5h

I'm going to think positive thoughts.

Jonathan Gilligan @jgilligan.org · 5h

Definition of a nail-biter.

Jonathan Gilligan @jgilligan.org · 5h

Williamson just reported about half their votes and now Epps is ahead 49.6% to 49.3%, his lead is about 300 votes out of more than 92,000.

Jonathan Gilligan @jgilligan.org · 6h

With half the vote in from Davidson and Montgomery, that's roughly 20,000 votes in each. Behn is ahead by 15,000 in Davidson and 600 in Montgomery.

Jonathan Gilligan @jgilligan.org · 6h

Davidson just dumped a big partial count, and now Behn is ahead 53.1% to 45.7%.

Jonathan Gilligan @jgilligan.org · 6h

Easily solved. The tunnel entrance will have a sign saying, "Your Steeplechase hat must be THIS big to ride west of 440"

Jonathan Gilligan @jgilligan.org · 18h

New York has excellent public transit to get to the airport. So do DC, Chicago, San Francisco, London, Toronto, Paris, ...

Time to step up our game, Nashville.

www.mta.info/guides/airpo...

How to get to LaGuardia Airport on public transit

Here's a breakdown of your options for getting to the airport via public transportation.

Jonathan Gilligan @jgilligan.org · 1d

Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die.
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.

Jonathan Gilligan @jgilligan.org · 1d

You're very kind, and I appreciate that. 🩷

Jonathan Gilligan @jgilligan.org · 1d

Bottom line: @betsyphillips.bsky.social and I use different methods and come to the same conclusion: Boring math doesn't add up. The tunnel won't be able to move more than about 2,400 people per hour each way, to and from the airport.

Jonathan Gilligan @jgilligan.org · 1d

My calculation: Recommended spacing on a highway, for safe travel, is 3 seconds between cars to avoid rear-end collisions.

If Boring sends one car into the tunnel every three seconds, and there are two passengers in each car, that's 1200 cars and 2400 people per hour.

Jonathan Gilligan @jgilligan.org · 1d

I'm delighted to see that @betsyphillips.bsky.social is checking the math on the Boring tunnel and finding that it doesn't add up. www.nashvillescene.com/news/pithint...

I took a different approach to Betsy's and got the same result: the claimed tunnel capacity doesn't math. 🧵

The Unlikely Math of the Music City Loop

The Boring Company's Steve Davis recently said the Nashville tunnels will be able to transport 20,000 to 30,000 people per hour

www.nashvillescene.com