Elisabeth Braw
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elisabethbraw.bsky.social
Elisabeth Braw
@elisabethbraw.bsky.social

Atlantic Council, Foreign Policy, Politico Europe. Author of The Defender's Dilemma (2022), Goodbye Globalization (2024) and Undersea War (2026). Geopolitics & globalisation/greyzone aggression/total defence/societal resilience. Own views .. more

Helena Elisabeth Braw is a Swedish security expert and former journalist active in Great Britain. She leads the Modern Deterrence project at the defense and security think tank RUSI in London. She is a senior fellow of the Transatlantic Security Initiative in the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. .. more

Political science 52%
Economics 21%

Now one of the Russian shadow vessels struck by Ukraine a few days ago has run aground.

Shadow vessel owners may start thinking twice about transporting Russian oil.

Reposted by Elisabeth Braw

Ukraine clearly feels it can’t afford to observe such niceties as the laws of the sea anymore. And Putin seems rattled, writes @elisabethbraw.bsky.social.
Ukraine’s Black Sea gamble
Attacks on Russia’s shadow fleet have strengthened Kyiv’s hand—but rattling the Kremlin is risky
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk

Norway has a wonderful new(-ish) initiative: preparedness friends.

Preparedness is not about going prepper. It's about being prepared for realistic crises - and helping one another.

Doing so alleviates loneliness too. A win-win

foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/04/n... (Me @foreignpolicy.com. Gift link.)

Ukrainian negotiators are meeting with Steve Witkoff in Florida today.

And they've arrived with proof that they can slash Russia's oil revenues.

Ukraine's recent attacks on Russia's shadow fleet are already having an effect.

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/world/europe...

(Me @prospectmagazine.co.uk)

A sensible step if we are to protect our supply chains against disruption.
Brussels is considering setting “made in Europe” targets of up to 70% for the content of certain products such as cars, as it pushes to prioritise domestic goods and cut reliance on China. Draft law due Dec 10
Brussels pushes for 70% of critical goods to be ‘made in Europe’
Policy would force EU companies to buy certain products domestically in an effort to cut reliance on China
www.ft.com
Brussels is considering setting “made in Europe” targets of up to 70% for the content of certain products such as cars, as it pushes to prioritise domestic goods and cut reliance on China. Draft law due Dec 10
Brussels pushes for 70% of critical goods to be ‘made in Europe’
Policy would force EU companies to buy certain products domestically in an effort to cut reliance on China
www.ft.com

As the Ukraine peace negotiations continue, the reality for the shadow fleet has changed dramatically.

Three vessels crippled, one crucial port struck.

Shadow-vessel owners will be getting cold feet.

We can't know why the mysterious cable incidents have stopped - or indeed whether they will resume.

But whatever the cause for the pause, the Baltic Sea nations' efforts to patrol, surveil, cooperate and communicate are impressive.
@sarahkirchberger.bsky.social or @elisabethbraw.bsky.social may have a better view of whether this hearty confidence is justified.

Reposted by Elisabeth Braw

@sarahkirchberger.bsky.social or @elisabethbraw.bsky.social may have a better view of whether this hearty confidence is justified.

Two Russian shadow vessels (and today reportedly another one) struck by Ukraine:

A dramatic turn in the battle against the shadow fleet (and the revenues it brings Russia).

www.reuters.com/business/ene...

Regarding France's new conscription (www.bbc.com/news/article...):

I have views, explained here and elsewhere: www.rusi.org/explore-our-...

The bottom line is that today's security environment is an opportunity to innovate. I remain a fan of the Norwegian model (which can be further enhanced).
France brings back limited military service with 3,000 volunteers next year
"The only way to avoid danger is to prepare for it," says President Emmanuel Macron.
www.bbc.com

First there was a sudden string of mysterious cable & pipeline incidents in the Baltic Sea.

Then the Baltic Sea nations collectively took action.

The incidents have stopped (for now).

www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...

An @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social Maritime Threats initiative report.
How the Baltic Sea nations have tackled suspicious cable cuts
Two places in the world's oceans see a lot of suspicious maritime behavior: the Baltic Sea, and the waters around Taiwan. Elisabeth Braw reports from the NATO task force charged with protecting the un...
www.atlanticcouncil.org

Knock on wood - but the Baltic Sea hasn't had any cable/pipeline incidents lately.

More about it: www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...

(This is the latest report from the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social Maritime Threats initiative. No paywall.)

Most shadow vessels are very old, which makes death (ie scrapping) imminent.

In fact, shadow vessels are creating a whole new shadow shipbreaking sector - and huge dangers for the workers and the environment.

www.politico.eu/article/emer... (Me @politico.eu. No paywall.)
The emergence of the shadow shipbreaking market
The shadow fleet now has its own system for scrapping ships, and it’s even riskier than the official one.
www.politico.eu

The Yantar directing lasers at UK pilots:

It's certainly like a deliberate provocation in waters that have numerous undersea installations.

The point of the provocation: well, there are several possibilities.

www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/a...
Russian spy ship aims lasers at RAF pilots tracking it near UK waters
We see you, John Healey tells Putin, as he calls for a new era of ‘hard power’ after surveillance vessel is spotted loitering off Scotland
www.thetimes.com

She's back (very) near UK waters, the research vessel Yantar.

And not just that, Defence Secretary John Healey says she has 'directed lasers at our pilots'.

Research, provocation or both?

news.sky.com/story/russia...

Thank you
A very important piece from @elisabethbraw.bsky.social on the toll Russian grey zone ops are taking on our societies and what to do about it. I recommend it to everyone (no paywall):
Russia's fast-growing greyzone aggression has many guises.

One factor unites them: they're costing the companies/organisations/cities/agencies attacked a lot of money.

Russia is trying to bleed us dry. Building resilience is vital.

www.politico.eu/article/russ...

Me @politico.eu. No paywall.

Reposted by Elisabeth Braw

A very important piece from @elisabethbraw.bsky.social on the toll Russian grey zone ops are taking on our societies and what to do about it. I recommend it to everyone (no paywall):
Russia's fast-growing greyzone aggression has many guises.

One factor unites them: they're costing the companies/organisations/cities/agencies attacked a lot of money.

Russia is trying to bleed us dry. Building resilience is vital.

www.politico.eu/article/russ...

Me @politico.eu. No paywall.

Russia's fast-growing greyzone aggression has many guises.

One factor unites them: they're costing the companies/organisations/cities/agencies attacked a lot of money.

Russia is trying to bleed us dry. Building resilience is vital.

www.politico.eu/article/russ...

Me @politico.eu. No paywall.

Your friendly reminder that this week is Norway's Self Preparedness Week.

A week-long reminder (with instructions) of how everyone can contribute to national resilience.

This is how to do it.

The Nord Stream saga's dramatic turns continue.

Now an Italian court has approved Serhii K's extradition to Germany.

A lot hinges on what he tells the German court (whenever that happens).

www.dw.com/en/italian-c...
Italian court approves extradition in Nord Stream case – DW – 10/27/2025
A court in Italy has given the go-ahead to extradite a Ukrainian suspect to Germany over the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline sabotage. The gas delivery route was long seen as a symbol of Germany's overrelia...
www.dw.com

GPS interference in the Baltic Sea region (and elsewhere) is reaching extraordinary levels.

That has implications for air travel everywhere.

A truly sinister form of aggression. The world's law-abiding nations should call out the perpetrators.

foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/27/a...
Who Is Messing With Airplane GPS Worldwide?
A wave of global interference threatens air safety.
foreignpolicy.com

Sweden established a new global trend with In Case of Crisis or War.

Now it's about to publish a corresponding leaflet directed at businesses.

What a great idea - especially since greyzone aggression directly targets the private sector.

www.politico.eu/article/swed...

(Me @politico.eu)

What great news: Ukraine will buy 150 (!) Gripen E fighter jets.

It's a fantastic aircraft, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said after his historic meeting with Ulf Kristersson today.

Sweden has steadfastly supported Ukraine ever since Russia's full-scale invasion.

Allies at work.

The pioneering greenhouse-gas reduction treaty for shipping has failed.

Here's more about it in a report from earlier this year www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/u...

(Part of @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social's Maritime Threats initiative.)

Reposted by Elisabeth Braw

Columnist @elisabethbraw.bsky.social explains the verdict of a pivotal trial involving three officers in charge of a shadow tanker that sabotaged undersea cables in the Gulf of Finland last year.
Anchors Away
Finland’s failure to convict Russian crew clears the way for more cable-cutting attacks.
foreignpolicy.com

Excellent ideas. ‘Social clubs with a purpose’ can function effectively in parallel to the armed forces when a nation-state is at war. They can meet the need now to begin engaging a large segment of the population in defence of shared values such as democratic governance or European sovereignty.

Reposted by Elisabeth Braw

Excellent ideas. ‘Social clubs with a purpose’ can function effectively in parallel to the armed forces when a nation-state is at war. They can meet the need now to begin engaging a large segment of the population in defence of shared values such as democratic governance or European sovereignty.