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yimmymcbill.bsky.social
yimmy
@yimmymcbill.bsky.social
33 followers 150 following 29 posts
trying to learn stats unfortunately through hockey. https://drydan.github.io/
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yimmymcbill.bsky.social
When forming a draft list: the more limited your prospect evaluations the more "factoring in availability to maximize EV" becomes code for "regularizing towards consensus".
October 8, 2025 at 1:32 PM
yimmymcbill.bsky.social
Sealing off this work for now. Popular NHLe models split up estimating league strength and predicting player outcomes. I attempt to do this under one roof in a way that I think is principled… but out of my depth. Am I contributing anything new in the space? Nah.
Formula written in Latex: $$ \text{tp}_{ijt} \sim \mathbf{Poisson}(\text{gp}_{ijt} \times \exp(\text{player}_{is} + \text{league}_{jt} + \text{position}_{jk}))\\ \text{player}_{i,s} = \text{player}_{i,s-1} + \text{age}_{s,k} - \text{age}_{s-1,k} + \epsilon_{i,s}\\ \text{age}_{s,k} \sim \mathbf{N}(2\space\text{age}_{s-1,k} - \text{age}_{s-2,k},\space\sigma_1^2)\\ \text{league}_{jt} \sim \mathbf{N}(\text{league}_{j,t-1},\space\sigma_2^2)\\ \text{player}_{i,0} \sim \mathbf{N}(0,\space\sigma_3^2)\\ \epsilon_{i,s} \sim \mathbf{N}(0,\space\sigma_{s}^2) $$
July 14, 2025 at 3:36 AM
yimmymcbill.bsky.social
NHL Draft model v2. Wrote a rough draft about what I think was going wrong the first go. Not there yet.

drydan.github.io/posts-hockey...
Ridge plot ordering the top 27 eligible players for the 2025 NHL Draft by the posteriors for a player ability. In list form below. Rank.|LastName|x|NHL Scouting Rank :-----|:------|:------:|:--: 1.|Misa|2.18|2 2.|Hagens|2.06|3 3.|Schaefer|2.04|1 4.|Martone|2.01|6 5.|Frondell|1.94|1 Int. 6.|Aitcheson|1.91|9 7.|O'Brien|1.86|4 8.|Desnoyers|1.85|7 9.|Eklund|1.84|2 Int. 10.|Carbonneau|1.81|16 11.|Kindel|1.8|21 12.|Reschny|1.78|25 13.|Reid|1.76|23 14.|Bear|1.76|10 15.|Veilleux|1.74|91 16.|Zonnon|1.71|31 17.|Mrtka|1.71|5 18.|Smith|1.68|13 19.|Martin|1.66|11 20.|Schmidt|1.65|43 21.|Woo|1.64|156 22.|Hensler|1.62|12 23.|Tremblay|1.61| 24.|McQueen|1.6|8 25.|Spence|1.6|17 26.|Brisson|1.57| 27.|Lakovic|1.57|14
May 31, 2025 at 12:37 PM
yimmymcbill.bsky.social
First go at a Poisson SSM for men's hockey. League str, F/D age curves & individuals modelled as RW1s. 14 leagues dating back to 2013 w/ no skater cutoffs. Schaefer an interesting case this year. Would bump to 3rd in draft given a full season and 1st if last season was punched up reasonably.
Ridge plot ranking the estimated latent talent of NHL prospects. Proceeding list is ordered by model. Number in brackets refers to the NHLs final scouting report ranks. 1. Misa (2), 2. Hagens (3), 3. Martone (6), 4. Schaefer (1), 5. Aitcheson (9), 6. Desnoyers (7), 7. Frondell (1 International), 8. Carbonneau (16), 9. O'Brien (4), 10. Kindel (21), 11. Eklund (2 International), 12. Veilleux (91), 13. Reschny (25), 14. Reid (23), 15. Hensler (12), 16. Zonnon (31), 17. Bear (10). Histogram of posterior mean talents from seasons 2013-2024 on the left. Centered near 0 w/ standard deviation 0.84. Appears bell shaped with a thicker left tail. Histogram of fitted point totals on the right. Big spike near 0, after drop it decays smoothly w/ max at 152.7
May 18, 2025 at 5:28 PM
yimmymcbill.bsky.social
PWHL released the 2025 draft eligibility list. Here's some coeffs from a pois reg for a NCAA D1 team level model. Strength of schedule a focus for points based analysis, but most top scorers play tougher games. Wisconsin the kind of super team I wish would declare all at once
A team level offense and defense scatterplot for NCAA D1 Women's Ice Hockey 2024-2025 season. Ranking the conferences by: NEWHA < CHA <= Hockey East < ECAC < WCHA. Wisconsin clearly dominant this year.
May 16, 2025 at 2:33 PM
yimmymcbill.bsky.social
Siren's shift data from yesterdays PWHL game derived by recording live game summary updates for each players time on ice every 20 seconds.
Shift chart for the NY Sirens game on Dec 8th. Dots represent when a player appears on the ice during a recorded event. Bar thickness represents the percentage of time on the player was potentially on the ice for the length of the segment.
December 9, 2024 at 2:03 PM
yimmymcbill.bsky.social
@mikemurphyhky.bsky.social do you know what's up with PWHL TOI data? I scraped last game's live summary updates to try and create a substitute shift chart but it did not turn out well for me. The final reported TOIs don't appear to add up either. Any work out there on this?
Makeshift shift chart for PWHL NY's Dec 1st Game vs. Minnesota. Dots represent when the individual appeared on the ice. While the data is not readily available I was hoping to recover partial information by recording game summary updates for TOI live.
December 3, 2024 at 7:07 PM