Yan Qin
@yanqin.bsky.social
Carbon analyst at ClearBlue Markets, Research Associate at OIES, China energy analyst living in Oslo 🇳🇴, 🇨🇦🇳🇱 |EnergyTransition•SustainableFuels•SupplyChain #carbonsky #energysky
(Montel) Europe’s flagship carbon price #EUETS is likely to average EUR 92/t in 2026, around 24% higher than this year, according to five analysts polled by Montel, including ClearBlue Markets
montelnews.com/news/5eb606a...
montelnews.com/news/5eb606a...
EUAs to jump 24% on year in 2026 as market tightens – poll
EUAs to average €92/t in 2026, up ~24% — poll points to a tighter market from cap cuts, falling free allocations and reduced auction volumes.
montelnews.com
December 12, 2025 at 11:23 AM
(Montel) Europe’s flagship carbon price #EUETS is likely to average EUR 92/t in 2026, around 24% higher than this year, according to five analysts polled by Montel, including ClearBlue Markets
montelnews.com/news/5eb606a...
montelnews.com/news/5eb606a...
⬆️The EU Carbon price is on uptrend and is near the highest level in 2025 at almost €85
as participants build positions ahead of tighter 2026 balances—a view underpinned by record net length held by Investment Funds (CoT data).
as participants build positions ahead of tighter 2026 balances—a view underpinned by record net length held by Investment Funds (CoT data).
December 12, 2025 at 8:29 AM
⬆️The EU Carbon price is on uptrend and is near the highest level in 2025 at almost €85
as participants build positions ahead of tighter 2026 balances—a view underpinned by record net length held by Investment Funds (CoT data).
as participants build positions ahead of tighter 2026 balances—a view underpinned by record net length held by Investment Funds (CoT data).
(WSJ) China’s AI Power Play: Cheap Electricity From World’s Biggest Grid
In China, inexpensive power has helped AI companies, including DeepSeek, develop high-quality AI models more cheaply than US. It also has helped China overcome challenges posed by its inferior domestic computer chips.
In China, inexpensive power has helped AI companies, including DeepSeek, develop high-quality AI models more cheaply than US. It also has helped China overcome challenges posed by its inferior domestic computer chips.
December 11, 2025 at 1:08 PM
(WSJ) China’s AI Power Play: Cheap Electricity From World’s Biggest Grid
In China, inexpensive power has helped AI companies, including DeepSeek, develop high-quality AI models more cheaply than US. It also has helped China overcome challenges posed by its inferior domestic computer chips.
In China, inexpensive power has helped AI companies, including DeepSeek, develop high-quality AI models more cheaply than US. It also has helped China overcome challenges posed by its inferior domestic computer chips.
'Dual Carbon' is emphasized in China's central economic work conference held in Beijing on 10 to 11 December, the most watched high-level meeting setting the tone for next year’s economic policy
December 11, 2025 at 10:41 AM
'Dual Carbon' is emphasized in China's central economic work conference held in Beijing on 10 to 11 December, the most watched high-level meeting setting the tone for next year’s economic policy
Hot topic in #CBAM community today is the revised Default Values, which were raised for many Chinese products from earlier version.
Some say this is protectionist, I would argue it differently. The forward-thinking Chinese facilities I visited in October are keen to speed up and become "greener".
Some say this is protectionist, I would argue it differently. The forward-thinking Chinese facilities I visited in October are keen to speed up and become "greener".
December 10, 2025 at 9:54 PM
Hot topic in #CBAM community today is the revised Default Values, which were raised for many Chinese products from earlier version.
Some say this is protectionist, I would argue it differently. The forward-thinking Chinese facilities I visited in October are keen to speed up and become "greener".
Some say this is protectionist, I would argue it differently. The forward-thinking Chinese facilities I visited in October are keen to speed up and become "greener".
On Wednesday morning, the EU ETS price held steady at above €82, after weekly CoT data showed Funds have further increased net length to 110 Mt as of last week.
Further volatility will come from year-end repositioning/options and futures expiry/shifting weather outlook
Further volatility will come from year-end repositioning/options and futures expiry/shifting weather outlook
December 3, 2025 at 11:27 AM
On Wednesday morning, the EU ETS price held steady at above €82, after weekly CoT data showed Funds have further increased net length to 110 Mt as of last week.
Further volatility will come from year-end repositioning/options and futures expiry/shifting weather outlook
Further volatility will come from year-end repositioning/options and futures expiry/shifting weather outlook
☀️ +253GW solar capacity
By October, China has added a total of 253 GW this year (+12.5GW in October) , data from NEA show
By October, China has added a total of 253 GW this year (+12.5GW in October) , data from NEA show
November 24, 2025 at 7:41 AM
☀️ +253GW solar capacity
By October, China has added a total of 253 GW this year (+12.5GW in October) , data from NEA show
By October, China has added a total of 253 GW this year (+12.5GW in October) , data from NEA show
Reposted by Yan Qin
NEW – COP30: Key outcomes agreed at the UN climate talks in Belém
Read here ➡️ buff.ly/3isyGpX
#COP30
Read here ➡️ buff.ly/3isyGpX
#COP30
November 23, 2025 at 4:26 PM
NEW – COP30: Key outcomes agreed at the UN climate talks in Belém
Read here ➡️ buff.ly/3isyGpX
#COP30
Read here ➡️ buff.ly/3isyGpX
#COP30
What to Know About the #COP30 Climate Deal www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
What to Know About the COP30 Climate Deal
After two weeks of flood, fire, protests and coffee-fueled late-night negotiations, COP30 has reached a close. The deal left many nations frustrated with its lack of ambition. Today’s newsletter cover...
www.bloomberg.com
November 23, 2025 at 4:43 PM
What to Know About the #COP30 Climate Deal www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
10 December EU #CBAM policies
The plan is the first concrete sign that the UK will not be able to avoid the CBAM charge despite efforts under way to link the EU and UK emissions trading systems. #EUETS
www.ft.com/content/cd33...
The plan is the first concrete sign that the UK will not be able to avoid the CBAM charge despite efforts under way to link the EU and UK emissions trading systems. #EUETS
www.ft.com/content/cd33...
EU explores cutting costs of carbon border tax on UK electricity producers
Potential changes come as part of broader review into bloc’s landmark measure next month
www.ft.com
November 21, 2025 at 2:43 PM
10 December EU #CBAM policies
The plan is the first concrete sign that the UK will not be able to avoid the CBAM charge despite efforts under way to link the EU and UK emissions trading systems. #EUETS
www.ft.com/content/cd33...
The plan is the first concrete sign that the UK will not be able to avoid the CBAM charge despite efforts under way to link the EU and UK emissions trading systems. #EUETS
www.ft.com/content/cd33...
⚡️China's total power consumption increased 5.1% y-o-y in the first 10 months
...this is in line with latest forecast of +5% in 2025 by China Electricity Council from late October
...this is in line with latest forecast of +5% in 2025 by China Electricity Council from late October
November 21, 2025 at 11:54 AM
⚡️China's total power consumption increased 5.1% y-o-y in the first 10 months
...this is in line with latest forecast of +5% in 2025 by China Electricity Council from late October
...this is in line with latest forecast of +5% in 2025 by China Electricity Council from late October
Europe’s Cold Snap Puts Thousands of New Heat Pumps to the Test
Poland, one of Europe’s most coal-dependent nations, is pivoting to heat pumps as it attempts to triple its renewables capacity by 2030.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Poland, one of Europe’s most coal-dependent nations, is pivoting to heat pumps as it attempts to triple its renewables capacity by 2030.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Europe’s Cold Snap Puts Thousands of New Heat Pumps to the Test
Poland, one of Europe’s most coal-dependent nations, is pivoting to heat pumps as it attempts to triple its renewables capacity by 2030.
www.bloomberg.com
November 20, 2025 at 5:44 PM
Europe’s Cold Snap Puts Thousands of New Heat Pumps to the Test
Poland, one of Europe’s most coal-dependent nations, is pivoting to heat pumps as it attempts to triple its renewables capacity by 2030.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Poland, one of Europe’s most coal-dependent nations, is pivoting to heat pumps as it attempts to triple its renewables capacity by 2030.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
💬New frontiers of communication 'Climate, Nature' evolve from rhetoric into tangible market drivers, analyzed using LLM model
Paper: The ECB’s 'Green Put': From Cheap Talk to Priced Action
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Paper: The ECB’s 'Green Put': From Cheap Talk to Priced Action
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
November 20, 2025 at 5:31 PM
💬New frontiers of communication 'Climate, Nature' evolve from rhetoric into tangible market drivers, analyzed using LLM model
Paper: The ECB’s 'Green Put': From Cheap Talk to Priced Action
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Paper: The ECB’s 'Green Put': From Cheap Talk to Priced Action
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
⬆️China national carbon price rebounded strongly after regulator tightened next year's allocation for industrial sectors and considered further price stabilization measures
Allowance price (CEA composite) jumped 8.3% to CNY66.86 on 19 Nov, rallying 30% since the low in late Oct
Allowance price (CEA composite) jumped 8.3% to CNY66.86 on 19 Nov, rallying 30% since the low in late Oct
November 19, 2025 at 1:07 PM
⬆️China national carbon price rebounded strongly after regulator tightened next year's allocation for industrial sectors and considered further price stabilization measures
Allowance price (CEA composite) jumped 8.3% to CNY66.86 on 19 Nov, rallying 30% since the low in late Oct
Allowance price (CEA composite) jumped 8.3% to CNY66.86 on 19 Nov, rallying 30% since the low in late Oct
💰In the EU Carbon market, Investment Funds' net long positions rose further last week to 102 Mt
The EU ETS price softened slightly in the morning after the CoT data release, on expectations that the longs might get maxed out (or soon)
The EU ETS price softened slightly in the morning after the CoT data release, on expectations that the longs might get maxed out (or soon)
November 19, 2025 at 9:41 AM
💰In the EU Carbon market, Investment Funds' net long positions rose further last week to 102 Mt
The EU ETS price softened slightly in the morning after the CoT data release, on expectations that the longs might get maxed out (or soon)
The EU ETS price softened slightly in the morning after the CoT data release, on expectations that the longs might get maxed out (or soon)
✈️Expansion of China Carbon market to more sectors
On 18 November, the ETS authority released the final 2024-2025 allocation plan for 3 new sectors: aluminum, cement and steel
It also mentioned that chemicals, petrochemicals, civil aviation and papermaking sectors will be included later
On 18 November, the ETS authority released the final 2024-2025 allocation plan for 3 new sectors: aluminum, cement and steel
It also mentioned that chemicals, petrochemicals, civil aviation and papermaking sectors will be included later
November 18, 2025 at 4:06 PM
✈️Expansion of China Carbon market to more sectors
On 18 November, the ETS authority released the final 2024-2025 allocation plan for 3 new sectors: aluminum, cement and steel
It also mentioned that chemicals, petrochemicals, civil aviation and papermaking sectors will be included later
On 18 November, the ETS authority released the final 2024-2025 allocation plan for 3 new sectors: aluminum, cement and steel
It also mentioned that chemicals, petrochemicals, civil aviation and papermaking sectors will be included later
Reposted by Yan Qin
COP30 COVER TEXT: The Brazilian presidency has published a first draft "global mutirão" text on the "big four" issues at COP30 – finance, 1.5C, trade & transparency
Options inc a "Belém roadmap to 1.5C", national FF roadmaps, tripling adaptation finance and more
NB this is only a draft!
Options inc a "Belém roadmap to 1.5C", national FF roadmaps, tripling adaptation finance and more
NB this is only a draft!
November 18, 2025 at 11:41 AM
COP30 COVER TEXT: The Brazilian presidency has published a first draft "global mutirão" text on the "big four" issues at COP30 – finance, 1.5C, trade & transparency
Options inc a "Belém roadmap to 1.5C", national FF roadmaps, tripling adaptation finance and more
NB this is only a draft!
Options inc a "Belém roadmap to 1.5C", national FF roadmaps, tripling adaptation finance and more
NB this is only a draft!
📝 My new blog post on EU carbon price development in 2025 and the outlook
👇in Italian for RiEnergia 🇮🇹
rienergia.staffettaonline.com/articolo/358...
👇in Italian for RiEnergia 🇮🇹
rienergia.staffettaonline.com/articolo/358...
2025: l’anno volatile per il carbon price europeo
Come si sono mossi i prezzi degli EUA
rienergia.staffettaonline.com
November 14, 2025 at 7:54 AM
📝 My new blog post on EU carbon price development in 2025 and the outlook
👇in Italian for RiEnergia 🇮🇹
rienergia.staffettaonline.com/articolo/358...
👇in Italian for RiEnergia 🇮🇹
rienergia.staffettaonline.com/articolo/358...
EU 2040 climate target
On 13 November, European Parliament adopted its position on the amendment to the EU Climate Law, setting a 90% emissions reduction target for the EU
www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/pres...
On 13 November, European Parliament adopted its position on the amendment to the EU Climate Law, setting a 90% emissions reduction target for the EU
www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/pres...
EU 2040 climate target: MEPs want 90% emissions reduction in EU climate law | News | European Parliament
Parliament wants a 90% reduction target for emissions by 2040 compared with 1990 levels, to achieve a climate neutral EU by 2050.
www.europarl.europa.eu
November 13, 2025 at 11:45 AM
EU 2040 climate target
On 13 November, European Parliament adopted its position on the amendment to the EU Climate Law, setting a 90% emissions reduction target for the EU
www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/pres...
On 13 November, European Parliament adopted its position on the amendment to the EU Climate Law, setting a 90% emissions reduction target for the EU
www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/pres...
At COP30
The absence of the U.S. will also expose the EU to heightened pressure on thorny issues, such as financing and trade, that tend to pit rich nations against developing countries.
“The elephant in the room between the EU and China is CBAM,” said Trasi.
www.politico.eu/article/dona...
The absence of the U.S. will also expose the EU to heightened pressure on thorny issues, such as financing and trade, that tend to pit rich nations against developing countries.
“The elephant in the room between the EU and China is CBAM,” said Trasi.
www.politico.eu/article/dona...
Trump’s COP30 snub thrusts Europe into a role it’s not ready for
Without the US, the EU will bear the brunt of demands leveled at rich countries during the talks.
www.politico.eu
November 10, 2025 at 11:55 AM
At COP30
The absence of the U.S. will also expose the EU to heightened pressure on thorny issues, such as financing and trade, that tend to pit rich nations against developing countries.
“The elephant in the room between the EU and China is CBAM,” said Trasi.
www.politico.eu/article/dona...
The absence of the U.S. will also expose the EU to heightened pressure on thorny issues, such as financing and trade, that tend to pit rich nations against developing countries.
“The elephant in the room between the EU and China is CBAM,” said Trasi.
www.politico.eu/article/dona...
Full text in English:
On 8 November, China's State Council Information Office released a white paper titled "Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality China's Plans and Solutions."
english.www.gov.cn/archive/whit...
On 8 November, China's State Council Information Office released a white paper titled "Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality China's Plans and Solutions."
english.www.gov.cn/archive/whit...
Full text: Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality China's Plans and Solutions
China's State Council Information Office on Saturday released a white paper titled "Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality China's Plans and Solutions."
english.www.gov.cn
November 10, 2025 at 11:04 AM
Full text in English:
On 8 November, China's State Council Information Office released a white paper titled "Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality China's Plans and Solutions."
english.www.gov.cn/archive/whit...
On 8 November, China's State Council Information Office released a white paper titled "Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality China's Plans and Solutions."
english.www.gov.cn/archive/whit...
Reposted by Yan Qin
EU’s new 2040 climate deal: "It's a political compromise that at least keeps the 2050 target within reach,” PIK director Edenhofer says. “If the targets are constantly being watered down, that’s not a good idea, because then the 2050 target will not be achievable."
www.politico.eu/article/eu-w...
www.politico.eu/article/eu-w...
EU’s weakened climate target raises risk of missing net-zero, top adviser warns
Chair of bloc’s science advisory board also dismissed industry calls to scrap carbon pricing.
www.politico.eu
November 10, 2025 at 10:31 AM
EU’s new 2040 climate deal: "It's a political compromise that at least keeps the 2050 target within reach,” PIK director Edenhofer says. “If the targets are constantly being watered down, that’s not a good idea, because then the 2050 target will not be achievable."
www.politico.eu/article/eu-w...
www.politico.eu/article/eu-w...
on 10 November, China's state planner issued 'Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Consumption and Regulation of New Energy' , aka another important policy to promote #Renewables integration with targets for 2030 and 2035
November 10, 2025 at 9:52 AM
on 10 November, China's state planner issued 'Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Consumption and Regulation of New Energy' , aka another important policy to promote #Renewables integration with targets for 2030 and 2035
November 9, 2025 at 6:14 AM