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Will Weaver ⛈️

@willweatherrva.bsky.social

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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · Nov 19

Welcome! This is my account completely devoted to weather. Most of the posts will be about tropical cyclones but I'll occasionally post about regional weather, mainly focusing on the #RVA area and mid-Atlantic but sometimes on other major weather events.

My main is at @willweaverrva.bsky.social!

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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 13h

Awesome!

Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 14h

Invest #98W located SE of #Yap is organizing, with an increasingly well defined LLCC present although the convection is still in scattered clusters. This will likely become a tropical depression by tomorrow, and it is definitely something to watch if you're in the #Philippines.

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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 14h

#Melissa (#13L) is racing away from the #Bahamas and toward #Bermuda. The #hurricane is beginning to lose tropical characteristics as a frontal boundary approaches from the west, and the convection is shearing off to the north and east. This could still be a hard hit for Bermuda.

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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 17h

No. There is not. Stop.

Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 19h

I love it when a model has a spread of 135 mb among all its members. 06Z Google DeepMind for invest #98W has members ranging from 876 mb to 1001 mb at 102 hours.

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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 1d

#Melissa (#13L) has emerged from the NE coast of #Cuba and is headed for the #Bahamas. Unlike the passage over #Jamaica, Cuba really did a number on its structure. Although it's back over water, it won't have an opportunity to recover as it's about to encounter strong shear.

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Reposted by Will Weaver ⛈️

Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 2d

A look at TDR observations of Melissa over the last few days shows just how impressively persistent and compact its inner core was - while the lack of eyewall replacement cycles helped Melissa intensify right up to landfall, it also kept its wind field fairly small.

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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 2d

#Melissa is recovering from its passage over #Jamaica quite quickly. The eye is still cloud-filled, but it is warming fast and the eyewall appears to be intact. Another brief spurt of rapid intensification is starting to look very possible before it reaches #Cuba in ~6 hrs.

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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 2d

#Melissa (#13L) is back over water off the northern coast of #Jamaica. It has weakened significantly (winds down to 125 kts, probably closer to 110-115 kts by now) but still has a fairly impressive structure. It could regain a bit of strength before reaching #Cuba early tomorrow.

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Reposted by Will Weaver ⛈️

Andrea Thompson @andreatweather.bsky.social · 2d

Thanks to @bmcnoldy.bsky.social & @drkimwood.bsky.social for help with this story. We were all struggling to find sufficient words.

“It’s this frustrating combination of, scientifically speaking, we know this is possible, but as humans we are flabbergasted at seeing manifest in this way.” -Kim 🧪

The Science of How Hurricane Melissa Became So Extreme

A nearly perfect alignment of factors has enabled Hurricane Melissa to become one of the most intense Atlantic storms ever recorded

www.scientificamerican.com

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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 2d

This storm wouldn't look out of place in the WPAC.

Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 2d

Once #Melissa (#13L) is done in #Jamaica, the danger is far from over. Depending on how much passage over Jamaica disrupts it, Melissa could still be a high-end Category 4 hurricane as it approaches Eastern #Cuba early tomorrow. Another potentially catastrophic situation looms...

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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 2d

#Melissa (#13L) has officially made landfall near New Hope, Jamaica at Category 5 status, with winds of 160 knots (185 mph) and a central pressure of 892 mb.

Melissa is tied with the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 as the most intense landfalling Atlantic #hurricane on record.

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Reposted by Will Weaver ⛈️

Jeremy DeHart @jeremydehartwx.bsky.social · 2d

I was worried for my crew mates when I saw them circling in the eye for over 20 mins. Looks like the very rough ride was confirmed. Plane had to leave early. They reported svr turb and a "sawtooth" eye. Looks like they moved 600-700ft up & down during this stretch in ~1 min.

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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 2d

Center of #Melissa's eye is just about to make landfall. I would expect an update from NHC in the next few minutes.

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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 2d

#Melissa should make landfall within the next 30 minutes or so. The NE eyewall is on shore and remains just as potent as ever.

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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 2d

Key messages from the latest discussion on #Melissa. For #Jamaica, this is about as close as it gets to a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) #hurricane warning, if it existed. Widespread destruction is very likely, and higher elevations could see even stronger winds.

Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION! TAKE COVER NOW! Catastrophic winds with total
structural failure are liklely near the path of Melissa’s center.
Catstrophic flash flooding, landslides, and destructive winds are
expected across the remainder of the island causing widespread
infrastructure damage, power and communication outages, and isolated
communities. Along the southern coast, life-threatening storm surge
and damaging waves are expected through the day.

2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic flash flooding
and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti and southern
portions of the Dominican Republic through midweek. In Haiti,
extensive damage and isolation of communities is likely. Tropical
storm conditions are expected later today and Wednesday.

3. Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall, flash flooding and landslides are
expected soon. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are
likely to begin later today. Complete all preparations now.

4. Southeastern and Central Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos:
Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy
rainfall are expected across portions of the southeastern and
central Bahamas on Wednesday. Complete preparations by tonight and
follow local official guidance. Tropical storm conditions, heavy
rains, and significant storm surge are expected in the Turks and
Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 2d

#Melissa (#13L) is about to make landfall in #Jamaica. This is a catastrophic situation. It's hard to come up with any more words to describe this.

Position: 17.9°N 77.9°W (40 mi SE of Negril)
Movement: NNE at 7 kts (9 mph)
Intensity: 160 kts (185 mph)
Central pressure: 892 mb

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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 2d

Eyewall of #Melissa is on the coast - landfall is imminent. Good luck to everyone on the ground there because this is going to be devastating. Tied for the strongest landfalling Atlantic hurricane on record.

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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 2d

This dropsonde is absolutely INSANE. The mean wind in the lowest 150 m of #Melissa is 188 kts (216 mph). These are some FIERCE winds and some higher elevations in Jamaica could very well see 175-180 kt winds.

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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 2d

The latest update shows #Melissa with winds of 160 kts (185 mph) and a pressure of 892 mb - tying the 1935 Labor Day #hurricane as the third most intense on record in the Atlantic.

The headline reads "LAST CHANCE TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE." This is NOT hyperbole. #Jamaica

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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 2d

Yeah, he's also active on that other site too. But I wouldn't be doing my due diligence if I didn't tag him.

Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 2d

One last NOAA plane has made it to #Melissa before landfall, so we've got one more opportunity for some observations before we shift gears to people on the ground like @icyclone.bsky.social.

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Will Weaver ⛈️ @willweatherrva.bsky.social · 2d

Finally, we get a dropsonde in #Melissa's eye and it indicates a pressure of 893 mb with winds of 13 kts. This reduces to a central pressure of 892 mb, which ties the 1935 Labor Day #hurricane for third most intense on record in the Atlantic basin.

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Reposted by Will Weaver ⛈️

Chuck Copeland 🌀 @nchurricane.com · 2d

This meso loop of #Melissa from CIRA is absolutely stunning at it makes its closes in on landfall in southwestern Jamaica.

rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/...

#hurricanemelissa

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