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Vivid Weather

@vividweather.bsky.social

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Vivid Weather - Weather made simple. https://discord.gg/fH24ruMbhj We have a community server with up to 600 members, all of which have an avid interest in tracking! Come join us!

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Vivid Weather @vividweather.bsky.social · Aug 9

discord.gg/fH24ruMbhj We have a community server with up to 600 members, all of which have an avid interest in tracking! Come join us!

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Vivid Weather @vividweather.bsky.social · Sep 17

#23W (#MirasolPH) has made landfall earlier at 3:20AM at the Municipality of Casiguran, Aurora in the Philippines as a low-end official Tropical Storm by the JTWC. Meanwhile, another Tropical Depression recently designated by JMA aiming to be another potential threat in Northern Luzon and Taiwan.

#23W (#MirasolPH) crossing the CAR Region in the Philippines (left)
TD #90W heading towards Batanes/Babuyan area and Southern Taiwan (right)

Vivid Weather @vividweather.bsky.social · Sep 14

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for severe weather for parts of the northern and central Plains. A 5% chance for tornadoes has been issued for parts of North Dakota and South Dakota. Also, there's a 15% chance for large hail and damaging winds. #severewx

Vivid Weather @vividweather.bsky.social · Sep 6

#22W is set to intensify into a #Typhoon per the #JTWC and #HKO. It is also likely to undergo rapid intensification in the next few hours. It is unofficially a Tropical Storm, and could become a Category 1 by tomorrow evening. Possible landfall on Guangdong on Monday morning.

Vivid Weather @vividweather.bsky.social · Sep 3

#Hurricane #Kiko is currently intensifying in the open Eastern Pacific. The current BT intensity is set at 90 kt and Kiko is expected to peak as a Category 3 in the coming days. Hawaii may want to watch out for downstream impacts in the coming week or two.

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Vivid Weather @vividweather.bsky.social · Aug 31

Tropical Storm #Kiko has formed in the Eastern Pacific. As it moves west, it has potential to become a strong #hurricane. #NHC currently forecasts an 85 kt storm but some models have it achieve a stronger intensity. Hawaii should watch out for potential impacts down the line.

Vivid Weather @vividweather.bsky.social · Aug 30

The North Atlantic is unusually quiet heading into early September. We currently only have one AOI that has a low chance to form in the next 7 days from the #NHC. Activity should pick up by mid month and we expect mid September through the early part of October to be fairly busy.

Vivid Weather @vividweather.bsky.social · Aug 25

#Fernand is on a downward trend now. Northernly shear is taking a toll on the system leaving the LLC exposed with convection displaced to the south. Conditions are not expected to improve for Fernand. The cyclone should become non-tropical in around 36 hours.

Vivid Weather @vividweather.bsky.social · Aug 23

UPDATE: Based on recon findings, 90L will be upgraded to Tropical Storm Fernand at 5 pm EST based on ATCF!

Vivid Weather @vividweather.bsky.social · Aug 23

#90L is currently organizing this afternoon. Recon in the storm is reporting a weak low level circulation that appears to be closed. #NHC has a near 100% chance this will form. We personally expect 90L to become a tropical cyclone in the next day or so.

Vivid Weather @vividweather.bsky.social · Aug 22

#99L is likely close to a tropical cyclone right now. A recent ASCAT pass showed 40 kt winds but we cannot tell if 99L is closed based on the pass because of some contamination issues. That being said, MW imagery suggests the low is closed. I would expect a tropical storm soon.

Vivid Weather @vividweather.bsky.social · Aug 21

Large #Hurricane #Erin is currently beginning to weaken as moves to the NE. Erin still remains a large and powerful Category 2 with gales extending almost 500 miles in diameter per the #NHC. Erin should transition into an extratropical cyclone within 2 days.

Vivid Weather @vividweather.bsky.social · Aug 20

Shear has lowered over #Erin which has allowed for some restrengthening. Erin is now officially from the #NHC a 95 kt Category 2 #hurricane and is expected to regain Category 3 status soon. The pressure has also dropped to 941 mb.

Vivid Weather @vividweather.bsky.social · Aug 19

Wind shear has taken a toll on #Erin. The LLC is partially exposed with convection being sheared away. #NHC still has the intensity at 90 kt which keeps Erin a Category 2 #hurricane. Shear should relax soon which should allow for Erin to have a short period of restrengthening.

Vivid Weather @vividweather.bsky.social · Aug 18

#Erin has took a turn today with a visible struggle to rotate VHTs upshear in the face of strong NWerly shear with a notable vector flip contrasting the upper levels and lower to mid levels.

Vivid Weather @vividweather.bsky.social · Aug 18

#Erin is recovering nice post EWRC and is likely intensifying again. The new, larger eye is attempting to clear with VHTs circling the eye. Recon should enter the #hurricane soon to investigate. #NHC still has Erin at 110 kt.

Vivid Weather @vividweather.bsky.social · Aug 17

#Erin is on the verge of completing an EWRC. #Hurricane hunters have reported two eyewalls with the outer eyewall being stronger then the inner eyewall now. In addition, pressure in Erin has dropped during the most recent pass. Erin should begin restrengthening very soon.

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Vivid Weather @vividweather.bsky.social · Aug 17

#Erin has weakened to a Category 4 #hurricane with winds of 125 kt. We are a bit unsure now of what is causing this weakening but it may be due to shear and a potential EWRC. Some restrengthening is likely in the coming days were Erin will likely reach a secondary peak.

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Vivid Weather @vividweather.bsky.social · Aug 16

#Erin is now officially a Category 5 hurricane per the @NHC_Atlantic and @53rdWRS, boasting winds of 160 mph and a minimum pressure of 917 mb.

Vivid Weather @vividweather.bsky.social · Aug 16

#Erin is now a high-end Category 4, boasting an intensity of 155 mph/923 mb per the #NHC. The NHC also predicts it to peak as a 165 mph Category 5 hurricane within the next 12 hours or so. Those along the Caribbean should continue to monitor this storm carefully.

Vivid Weather @vividweather.bsky.social · Aug 16

A dropsonde within the center of #Erin has found a minimum pressure of 925 mb. This would mean it's pressure is dropping 6.13mb/hr since the first pass at 9:30z, when it was 951 mb. Incredible.

Vivid Weather @vividweather.bsky.social · Aug 16

#Hurricane #Erin has continued rapidly intensifying, now reaching an intensity of 145 mph/935 mb. The #NHC expects a peak intensity of 150 mph within the next few hours, however the possibility of a Category 5 is not ruled out. Those in the Caribbean still should watch closely.

Vivid Weather @vividweather.bsky.social · Aug 16

#Erin has explosively intensified into a #Category4 #Hurricane, boasting an intensity of 130 mph/948 mbar. #hurricanehunters are inside the storm as we speak, and #Erin is expected to continue intensifying fast. Those living in the Lesser Antilles should watch carefully.

Vivid Weather @vividweather.bsky.social · Aug 16

#Erin is currently a rapidly intensifying #hurricane. VHTs have been rotating around the eyewall over the last few hours. Recon has found that Erin is now a Category 2 with peak winds of 85 kt. The #NHC has Erin peaking as a 125 kt Category 4 in around 36 hours.

Vivid Weather @vividweather.bsky.social · Aug 15

#Erin has maintained it's intensity of 65 kts/993 mb since the last advisory. Some shear remains, however #Erin has continued intensifying, and will be a Major Hurricane by early Sunday per the #NHC. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for some areas of the Lesser Antilles.

Vivid Weather @vividweather.bsky.social · Aug 15

#Erin is now a Category 1 #hurricane with winds of 65 kt. It still remains slightly sheared but still has been able to strengthen some despite this. Erin is expected to continue strengthening. #NHC currently forecasts Erin to peak as a Category 4 with winds of 120 kt.