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Heat extremes in Western Europe increasing faster than simulated due to atmospheric circulation trends - Nature Communications

umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 4h

The mean state shifted towards higher temperatures because of GHG and aerosol forcing, while the increase in heatwaves faster than models predicted is surface (e.g. SST/soil)-atmos. coupling

This was my complex all about - the factors contributing to circulation changes and heatwave intensification

Heat extremes in Western Europe have increased by an outstanding amount in the last 70 years. Climate models simulate weaker trends. This is largely due to atmospheric circulation trends, favouring he...

umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 7h

Ok what can I do, now the last one for the Western European shit show summer heatwave complex - sorry becoming cynic as I put it the first time together...

They have no idea of what is coming at them...

This complex can massively further intensify!

"Anthropogenic forcing intensified internally driven concurrent heatwaves in August 2022 across the Northern Hemisphere"; https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00828-6#Fig3

Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling strength over central Europe in the recent warming climate

umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 7h

Ok a last one that also nicely Illustrate that this shit is just starting! At 2°C heatwaves will also become in Europe insane!

The diabatic component from intensifying low pressure systems I fear most!

Possible influence of the warm pool ITCZ on compound climate extremes during the boreal summer

"Possible influence of the warm pool ITCZ on compound climate extremes during the boreal summer"; https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac30f8

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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 7h

And the whole shit show then mutual amplifies with soil moisture deficits:

"Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling strength over central Europe in the recent warming climate"; nhess.copernicus.org/articles/25/...

Abstract. In recent decades Europe has experienced severe droughts and heatwaves. Notably, precipitation in central Europe exhibited strong dry anomalies during the summers of 2003, 2018, and 2022. Th...

nhess.copernicus.org

Resonant Waves Play an Important Role in the Increasing Heat Waves in Northern Hemisphere Mid‐Latitudes Under Global Warming

umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 8h

This one is also highly important - subtropical Jet/tropical convection/or Arctic warming disturbing the mid-latitude jet:

"Resonant Waves Play an Important Role in the Increasing Heat Waves in Northern Hemisphere Mid-Latitudes Under Global Warming"; agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

The influence of resonant waves on heat extremes in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude summer is increasing, especially in Eurasi The occurrence of resonant waves is closely related to double j...

umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 8h

Sorry I'm on it what can I do, now I want to give a complete picture :D :D :D

"Accelerated western European heatwave trends linked to more-persistent double jets over Eurasia"; www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Client Challenge

umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 8h

And this one also part of the reason or complex:

Twentieth-century Azores High expansion unprecedented in the past 1,200 years"; www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Client Challenge

Midlatitude Oceanic Fronts Strengthen the Hydrological Cycle Between Cyclones and Anticyclones

umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 8h

This one is also highly important as the Gulf stream front is intensifying becoming a birth place for cyclones and/or supercharges them, which then intensify blocking (Azores high), and can reinforce on their way north/east the West Europe heatwaves.

Cyclonic and anticyclonic contributions to air-sea heat and moisture exchange are quantified around midlatitude oceanic frontal zones Oceanic frontal zones enhance surface turbulent heat fluxes w...

Summer Deep Depressions Increase Over the Eastern North Atlantic

umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 8h

This one is also important - how low pressure systems e.g. over the NA sustain ridge blocks which are the main driver of western European heatwaves:

"Blocking diversity causes distinct roles of diabatic heating in the Northern Hemisphere";

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 8h

Over western Europe circulation changes are discussed as the main driver (duration) for these exceptional heatwaves which can't be simulated by models

This study seems highly relevant as it describes the possibility of Atlantic cyclones not only to pull in hot air, but also to provide hot upper air

Deep depression occurrences have significantly increased over the eastern side, and decreased over the western side of the North Atlantic Deep depressions are linked to high surface temperature p...

umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 8h

"Decreasing aerosols increase the European summer diurnal temperature range"

diurnal temperature range (DTR)

Following a decrease from the 1940s, since the 1980s the European DTR has increased by about 0.5K due to a reduction in European aerosol emissions leading to cooler nights relative to days

Client Challenge

The indirect aerosol effect over Europe

umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 8h

Eastern Europe had been one of the few occasions where emission reductions happened so sudden that the effect could be nicely measured:

Germany, the Czech Republic, and Poland:

"Twomey effect a change in radiative forcing of
about 1.5 W/m 2 from the late 80s to the late 90s."

In order to assess the influence of anthropogenic emissions on cloud albedo over Europe a reprocessed set of satellite measurements from 1985 to 1999 was investigated. Special emphasis was given to t...

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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 12h

WOW and WTF!

Study Reveals 'Alarming' Rise of Superbugs in Newborn Babies

umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 12h

Microbial resistance is a mighty oh fucker!

"According to a new study, these so-called superbugs can also be alarmingly prevalent in newborn babies, to the point that frontline treatments for sepsis are no longer effective against the majority of bacterial infections."

Humanity's war against drug-resistant microbes is not going very well.

www.sciencealert.com

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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 12h

Epstein shows it all: a pedophile ring for the ultra rich is ok!

Bet his service still exist as billions can be made...

Gets ever more disgusting!