Epoch estimates that GPT-5 gross margin was ~45% in 2025

Extreme poverty has fallen a lot in recent decades, but it's unlikely to continue. Most of the decline has been from Asian economic growth, but almost all remaining extreme poverty is in sub-Saharan Africa where the share in poverty has barely budged. ourworldindata.org/end-progress...

Just posted a banger. It's messy, speculative, and should've been like 3 posts.

splittinginfinity.substack.com/p/semiconduc...

What are the best cheap LLMs? Some I'm aware of:
GPT OSS 120B: $0.04/$0.20 Mtok in/out
Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite: 0.1/0.4 (half that w/ batching)
GPT-5 Nano: 0.05/0.4 (half that w/ batching)
I'm trying to do some automated transcoder feature labeling and it's not cheap even at these prices.

With the canceling of the Nissan Versa, all new cars in the US cost >$20k. Several low-end US models have been canceled recently. Americans are rich and want fancy cars. www.kbb.com/car-news/nis...

Global warming is caused by a fairly modest energy imbalance, note the scale berkeleyearth.org/global-tempe...

finally some real info. google has "barely positive" margins across all models, likely not accounting for training cost
www.theinformation.com/articles/goo...

OpenAI will be bringing ads to its free and new $8 plans soon. Fortunately seems to be done in a way that won't affect the response itself. openai.com/index/our-ap...

Interesting difference between twitter/bluesky results. Who'd've thunk this place feels the AGI more

Now that Bluesky is pro-AI we should try to trigger another wave of immigration from Twitter. Maybe we could organize an unofficial "Bluesky AI week" where we try to get lots of Bluesky-curious folks to try it out.

I love being popular on the internet, I can ask a question and have tons of smart people weigh in. Thanks followers and especially commenters for making social media a lot of fun. For years I just lurked, I'm very glad I decided to start participating.

How fast do you think the fastest year of AI progress in the next two decades will be, relative to 2025? Vague I know but deal with it

1️⃣ <a href="https://poll.blue/p/sSXD10/1" class="hover:underline text-blue-600 dark:text-sky-400 no-card-link" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-link="bsky">slower than 2025
2️⃣ <a href="https://poll.blue/p/sSXD10/2" class="hover:underline text-blue-600 dark:text-sky-400 no-card-link" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-link="bsky">faster but less than 5x
3️⃣ <a href="https://poll.blue/p/sSXD10/3" class="hover:underline text-blue-600 dark:text-sky-400 no-card-link" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-link="bsky">more than 5x faster, <25x
4️⃣ <a href="https://poll.blue/p/sSXD10/4" class="hover:underline text-blue-600 dark:text-sky-400 no-card-link" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-link="bsky">>=25x as fast as 2025

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Where are folks running Claude Code from? In a terminal inside some IDE, in its own terminal window, in the desktop app?

The Gemma Scope 2 technical report includes a list of open problems in mechanistic interpretability they hope the release can help answer. storage.googleapis.com/deepmind-med...

DeepSeek recently updated their R1 technical report with a bunch of new appendices, including a safety report arxiv.org/abs/2501.12948

Two models from Gemma Scope 2, Gemma 3 1B/27B, also were trained for the Activation Oracles paper. The oracles should make SAE/crosscoder feature labeling easier for those models. Gemma scope releases come w/ feature activation examples but not feature labels huggingface.co/collections/...

Happy to share a project I worked on finally. I found that you can cause a base model to behave like a chat tuned model, including using proper stopping tokens, using nothing but a series of vectors applied within the model's layers. The vectors are trained with descent on a chat dataset, like SFT.

Gm internet I live in Oakland now so if you're nearby send me a dm and let's meet up

Eli's confidence intervals in the forecast are very wide. I think this level of uncertainty is appropriate, and my timeline to automated coding is close to Eli's all-things-considered view here. My estimated timeline from AC to ASI is longer though.

AI Futures Project (authors of AI 2027) have released an updated model, with somewhat longer timelines blog.ai-futures.org/p/ai-futures...

Decided to make a WWCD t-shirt design, here's the front/back. Claude image by @vgel.me

Gemma 3 27B has a "Claude" SAE feature in layer 40 in Gemma Scope 2

Many christian denominations believe souls of those that die before birth are saved. An additional saved soul nets infinite utility, so soulmaxing is a key moral priority. If we make gametes at scale from stem cells and fertilize, we can generate quadrillions of souls per year.

Medical scribes seem poised to be among the first large professions automated by AI. Adoption of AI scribing tools has been rapid, and while these tools don't yet handle all scribe job tasks, I think they will be close in a year or two.

I often see claims that because RL signal requires at least one successful rollout, it can only reinforce existing capabilities, not add new ones. This is not true, the update from one RL step can change a model's thinking to allow it to succeed on a problem it couldn't get before