Tim Dowse
@timdowse.bsky.social
Consultant, after 40 years with FCO, Cabinet Office, HM Treasury. Specialties: national security, defence, geopolitical analysis.
Reposted by Tim Dowse
📉London has recorded the lowest number of murders in 2025 since monthly records began!
😮That number represents a fall of almost 60% compared to 2003.
😮That number represents a fall of almost 60% compared to 2003.
November 25, 2025 at 3:51 PM
📉London has recorded the lowest number of murders in 2025 since monthly records began!
😮That number represents a fall of almost 60% compared to 2003.
😮That number represents a fall of almost 60% compared to 2003.
Farrow & Ball have the most off-putting names for some of their paint colours. Who would want to decorate a room in “Mizzle”, “Clunch” or (a personal favourite) “Dead Salmon”? Is a mole from Dulux working in their marketing department?
November 22, 2025 at 11:34 AM
Farrow & Ball have the most off-putting names for some of their paint colours. Who would want to decorate a room in “Mizzle”, “Clunch” or (a personal favourite) “Dead Salmon”? Is a mole from Dulux working in their marketing department?
A helpful balance to some of the wilder commentary. Sensible and constructive advice.
Agree it’s noteworthy that Russia has not signed off on the “plan” - just hope that isn’t part of a pre-agreed script.
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/h...
Agree it’s noteworthy that Russia has not signed off on the “plan” - just hope that isn’t part of a pre-agreed script.
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/h...
How should Ukraine respond?
And more details on the "peace plan"
open.substack.com
November 22, 2025 at 10:31 AM
A helpful balance to some of the wilder commentary. Sensible and constructive advice.
Agree it’s noteworthy that Russia has not signed off on the “plan” - just hope that isn’t part of a pre-agreed script.
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/h...
Agree it’s noteworthy that Russia has not signed off on the “plan” - just hope that isn’t part of a pre-agreed script.
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/h...
Reposted by Tim Dowse
A security arrangement that gives allied sovereign states zero decision-making power over military action but commits them to joining that action (or even perhaps assuming sole responsibility for it - the wording is, again, very vague) if another state's leader says so, is not viable.
November 21, 2025 at 8:07 PM
A security arrangement that gives allied sovereign states zero decision-making power over military action but commits them to joining that action (or even perhaps assuming sole responsibility for it - the wording is, again, very vague) if another state's leader says so, is not viable.
Reposted by Tim Dowse
Comment is Freed is one of the best value subscriptions out there. Highly recommended.
The Witkoff-Dmitriev plan is even more amateurish than I imagined. It favours Russia although does contain elements that Russia will not like. Premature leaking means that it is no more than work in progress. Here is an annotated version (This is free). open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...?
The Witkoff-Dmitriev peace plan annotated
We now know a bit more about the process which led to the new peace plan and we now have a copy of its contents, to which I will turn soon.
open.substack.com
November 21, 2025 at 2:41 PM
Comment is Freed is one of the best value subscriptions out there. Highly recommended.
“U.S. pushing Ukraine to sign peace deal by Thanksgiving or lose support.” [Washington Post]
So Ukraine is being pushed, with threats, to accept a one-sided and (to put it mildly) half-baked “plan” that the Russian government claims not even to have seen?
This gets more peculiar by the hour.
So Ukraine is being pushed, with threats, to accept a one-sided and (to put it mildly) half-baked “plan” that the Russian government claims not even to have seen?
This gets more peculiar by the hour.
November 21, 2025 at 4:35 PM
“U.S. pushing Ukraine to sign peace deal by Thanksgiving or lose support.” [Washington Post]
So Ukraine is being pushed, with threats, to accept a one-sided and (to put it mildly) half-baked “plan” that the Russian government claims not even to have seen?
This gets more peculiar by the hour.
So Ukraine is being pushed, with threats, to accept a one-sided and (to put it mildly) half-baked “plan” that the Russian government claims not even to have seen?
This gets more peculiar by the hour.
Another biting and detailed critique. The more one sees of the reported detail, the more this "plan" does indeed seem to have been the work of people with only the vaguest idea of what they are talking about. Hard to imagine it has been near any of the professionals in the State Department.
The Witkoff-Dmitriev plan is even more amateurish than I imagined. It favours Russia although does contain elements that Russia will not like. Premature leaking means that it is no more than work in progress. Here is an annotated version (This is free). open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...?
The Witkoff-Dmitriev peace plan annotated
We now know a bit more about the process which led to the new peace plan and we now have a copy of its contents, to which I will turn soon.
open.substack.com
November 21, 2025 at 3:09 PM
Another biting and detailed critique. The more one sees of the reported detail, the more this "plan" does indeed seem to have been the work of people with only the vaguest idea of what they are talking about. Hard to imagine it has been near any of the professionals in the State Department.
Reposted by Tim Dowse
My commentary on some of the legal aspects of the government’s latest immigration proposals, including the potential for court challenges
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/lega...
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/lega...
What are the legal implications of Labour’s new immigration reforms? | Institute for Government
Some of the government’s proposals are thin on details, others are likely to be tested in the courts.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
November 21, 2025 at 12:19 PM
My commentary on some of the legal aspects of the government’s latest immigration proposals, including the potential for court challenges
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/lega...
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/lega...
Excellent points, well made.
Some notable things in what's being called the "Trump peace plan" but which could not have been more clearly written in Moscow if it came with a 2 for 1 deal on tickets to the Bolshoi Ballet. 🧵
November 21, 2025 at 11:11 AM
Excellent points, well made.
This is a really bad idea. Who can be sure that “selective proliferation” remains confined to friends and allies? What if someone else also starts selecting?
www.foreignaffairs.com/canada/ameri...
www.foreignaffairs.com/canada/ameri...
America’s Allies Should Go Nuclear
Selective proliferation will strengthen the global order, not end it.
www.foreignaffairs.com
November 21, 2025 at 11:06 AM
This is a really bad idea. Who can be sure that “selective proliferation” remains confined to friends and allies? What if someone else also starts selecting?
www.foreignaffairs.com/canada/ameri...
www.foreignaffairs.com/canada/ameri...
Reposted by Tim Dowse
I see from a recent answer to a PQ that the UK has supplied 85,000 drones to Ukraine in the past six months. That is rather impressive - not least for it happening with little publicity. It's the right approach: do more, shout about it less.
November 19, 2025 at 12:19 PM
I see from a recent answer to a PQ that the UK has supplied 85,000 drones to Ukraine in the past six months. That is rather impressive - not least for it happening with little publicity. It's the right approach: do more, shout about it less.
Just took delivery of a softback book. French publisher, Italian vendor. Price: €20. Accompanied by *fifteen pages* of customs documents, including photocopies of the vendor’s ID card (front and back)!
November 18, 2025 at 11:16 AM
Just took delivery of a softback book. French publisher, Italian vendor. Price: €20. Accompanied by *fifteen pages* of customs documents, including photocopies of the vendor’s ID card (front and back)!
Can’t help wondering whether, when they finally appear, these ‘files’ are not going to be a massive anti-climax.
Also striking that Americans (of all political persuasions) appear confident that what is released after all this time will not have been expurgated/redacted/selectively edited. Why?
Also striking that Americans (of all political persuasions) appear confident that what is released after all this time will not have been expurgated/redacted/selectively edited. Why?
Trump: "House Republicans should vote to release the Epstein files, because we have nothing to hide."
November 18, 2025 at 11:02 AM
Can’t help wondering whether, when they finally appear, these ‘files’ are not going to be a massive anti-climax.
Also striking that Americans (of all political persuasions) appear confident that what is released after all this time will not have been expurgated/redacted/selectively edited. Why?
Also striking that Americans (of all political persuasions) appear confident that what is released after all this time will not have been expurgated/redacted/selectively edited. Why?
Extraordinary. Where are they going to send him - El Salvador?
Assume this will be overturned, but the more of these sorts of cases there are, the stronger the popular reaction will be. Almost as if ICE are trying to undermine the very policy they are supposed to be implementing
Assume this will be overturned, but the more of these sorts of cases there are, the stronger the popular reaction will be. Almost as if ICE are trying to undermine the very policy they are supposed to be implementing
79-year-old Paul Bojerski was born to Polish parents in a WWII German refugee camp. His family legally emigrated to the U.S. when he was 5.
He’s been taken by ICE in Florida.
www.orlandosentinel.com/2025/11/16/s...
He’s been taken by ICE in Florida.
www.orlandosentinel.com/2025/11/16/s...
Sanford grandfather, born in refugee camp, nabbed by ICE after 70 years in U.S.
Paul Bojerski never gained official residency, but he checked in regularly with ICE for years. Then in July, at age 79, he was detained and sent to Alligator Alcatraz.
www.orlandosentinel.com
November 18, 2025 at 10:46 AM
Extraordinary. Where are they going to send him - El Salvador?
Assume this will be overturned, but the more of these sorts of cases there are, the stronger the popular reaction will be. Almost as if ICE are trying to undermine the very policy they are supposed to be implementing
Assume this will be overturned, but the more of these sorts of cases there are, the stronger the popular reaction will be. Almost as if ICE are trying to undermine the very policy they are supposed to be implementing
Reposted by Tim Dowse
Extraordinary day and historic for the wrong reasons - a cyber attack featured in the GDP figures
November 13, 2025 at 12:20 PM
Extraordinary day and historic for the wrong reasons - a cyber attack featured in the GDP figures
Reposted by Tim Dowse
Wonderful to see this news that the Kennan Institute will continue its vital work, now as an independent center.
Dismantled by DOGE, a Foreign Policy Center Finds New Life
www.nytimes.com
November 11, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Wonderful to see this news that the Kennan Institute will continue its vital work, now as an independent center.
Interesting less for the content, which feels largely like gossip, than for the sourcing which - as I’d expect - appears to be all American, not British. Some insider (or probably more than one) doesn’t like Director Patel.
Btw NYT: there’s no such place as “Windsor Palace”!
Btw NYT: there’s no such place as “Windsor Palace”!
F.B.I. Director Is Said to Have Made a Pledge to Head of MI5, Then Broken It
www.nytimes.com
November 10, 2025 at 3:34 PM
Interesting less for the content, which feels largely like gossip, than for the sourcing which - as I’d expect - appears to be all American, not British. Some insider (or probably more than one) doesn’t like Director Patel.
Btw NYT: there’s no such place as “Windsor Palace”!
Btw NYT: there’s no such place as “Windsor Palace”!
I wonder if there is enough abundance of excellent discourse among today's senior civil servants?
With Sir W. Batten and Sir J. Minnes, with whom we did abundance of most excellent discourse of former passages of sea commanders and officers of the navy.
November 9, 2025 at 10:46 PM
I wonder if there is enough abundance of excellent discourse among today's senior civil servants?
Reposted by Tim Dowse
La soif de liberté est plus forte que les dictatures:
il y a 36 ans, dans la soirée du 9 novembre 1989, le Mur de Berlin tombait.
N’oublions pas ce qu’il était.
There was once a Wall in Berlin #LestWeForget
il y a 36 ans, dans la soirée du 9 novembre 1989, le Mur de Berlin tombait.
N’oublions pas ce qu’il était.
There was once a Wall in Berlin #LestWeForget
November 9, 2025 at 9:51 PM
La soif de liberté est plus forte que les dictatures:
il y a 36 ans, dans la soirée du 9 novembre 1989, le Mur de Berlin tombait.
N’oublions pas ce qu’il était.
There was once a Wall in Berlin #LestWeForget
il y a 36 ans, dans la soirée du 9 novembre 1989, le Mur de Berlin tombait.
N’oublions pas ce qu’il était.
There was once a Wall in Berlin #LestWeForget
Poor old Lavrov. He's been trying to step down for many years, but Putin wouldn't let him go. If he'd left in, say, 2005 he could have had an honourable retirement. As it is, he'll be remembered alongside Tariq Aziz.
A top ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin said today that media reports about Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov falling out of favor “are completely untrue.”
Kremlin denies growing rumors of Sergey Lavrov’s ouster
“Completely untrue,” insists Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson, as chatter builds about the veteran foreign minister.
www.politico.eu
November 7, 2025 at 3:32 PM
Poor old Lavrov. He's been trying to step down for many years, but Putin wouldn't let him go. If he'd left in, say, 2005 he could have had an honourable retirement. As it is, he'll be remembered alongside Tariq Aziz.
Reposted by Tim Dowse
Prevent stats published today www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crim...
Far-right cases referred to Prevent programme double those for Islamist extremism
A record 8,778 people were referred to the government’s anti-extremism scheme in the year to March 2025
www.independent.co.uk
November 6, 2025 at 1:13 PM
Prevent stats published today www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crim...
If agent Lairmore is able to give this evidence without giggling, he deserves a medal of some sort.
Border Patrol agent Lairmore testifies that he was not injured by the sandwich, but he felt the impact through his ballistic vest.
The sandwich came apart and "kind of exploded" on his chest upon impact, he says.
"I could smell the onions and mustard."
The sandwich came apart and "kind of exploded" on his chest upon impact, he says.
"I could smell the onions and mustard."
November 4, 2025 at 7:31 PM
If agent Lairmore is able to give this evidence without giggling, he deserves a medal of some sort.