Thomas J Thompson
@thomasjthompson.bsky.social
Chief Economist at Havas Edge, Entrepreneur-in-Residence with Harvard. Exploring how consumers really behave, and why charts keep nudging us toward a plot twist.
Private data show goods inflation cooling but it is not victory it is caution. Discounts are rising, imports are slowing, and consumers are pulling back. My take is that this is not disinflation from strength, it is demand fatigue. #econsky
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Private Inflation Data Shows a Cooling Goods Economy
With the October CPI still delayed by the federal shutdown, the view of inflation is now coming from private datasets rather than official… | Thom...
Private Inflation Data Shows a Cooling Goods Economy
With the October CPI still delayed by the federal shutdown, the view of inflation is now coming from private datasets rather than official reports...
www.linkedin.com
November 10, 2025 at 3:25 PM
Private data show goods inflation cooling but it is not victory it is caution. Discounts are rising, imports are slowing, and consumers are pulling back. My take is that this is not disinflation from strength, it is demand fatigue. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Consumer sentiment fell to 50.3, the lowest in three years. The shutdown and layoffs are taking a toll, and I think this is the moment when confidence starts to matter more than the data. #econsky
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Consumer Sentiment Falls to a Three-Year Low
Consumer confidence has fallen to its weakest point in more than three years, reflecting how the prolonged government shutdown and mounting layoff… | Tho...
Consumer Sentiment Falls to a Three-Year Low
Consumer confidence has fallen to its weakest point in more than three years, reflecting how the prolonged government shutdown and mounting layoff headli...
www.linkedin.com
November 7, 2025 at 3:14 PM
Consumer sentiment fell to 50.3, the lowest in three years. The shutdown and layoffs are taking a toll, and I think this is the moment when confidence starts to matter more than the data. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Student loan delinquencies hit a record high as repayment resumes and household budgets tighten. Younger borrowers are falling behind fastest. My take is that this marks the first real crack in consumer resilience and the next test for economic momentum. #econsky
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Student loan delinquencies climb toward crisis levels
Student loan delinquencies have surged to their highest level on record, revealing a new fault line in the American economy. The latest data… | T...
Student loan delinquencies climb toward crisis levels
Student loan delinquencies have surged to their highest level on record, revealing a new fault line in the American economy. The latest data from...
www.linkedin.com
November 6, 2025 at 3:48 PM
Student loan delinquencies hit a record high as repayment resumes and household budgets tighten. Younger borrowers are falling behind fastest. My take is that this marks the first real crack in consumer resilience and the next test for economic momentum. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Household debt hit a record $18.6T as Americans lean on credit to stay afloat in a high-cost economy. Credit cards and student loans are at new highs and younger borrowers are falling behind. My take is that growth is now financed by strain, not strength. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Americans’ household debt hits a record $18.6 trillion
Household debt in the United States has reached a record $18.6 trillion, rising by nearly two hundred billion dollars in the last quarter… | Tho...
Americans’ household debt hits a record $18.6 trillion
Household debt in the United States has reached a record $18.6 trillion, rising by nearly two hundred billion dollars in the last quarter, accor...
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November 5, 2025 at 10:01 PM
Household debt hit a record $18.6T as Americans lean on credit to stay afloat in a high-cost economy. Credit cards and student loans are at new highs and younger borrowers are falling behind. My take is that growth is now financed by strain, not strength. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Remember, remember the fifth of November,
Gunpowder, treason and plot.
I see no reason why gunpowder treason
Should ever be forgot.
Gunpowder, treason and plot.
I see no reason why gunpowder treason
Should ever be forgot.
November 5, 2025 at 5:17 PM
Remember, remember the fifth of November,
Gunpowder, treason and plot.
I see no reason why gunpowder treason
Should ever be forgot.
Gunpowder, treason and plot.
I see no reason why gunpowder treason
Should ever be forgot.
ADP shows 42K jobs added in October, the first gain since July. Big firms hired while smaller ones cut. My take is that the job market looks steady on paper but is shifting underneath as efficiency replaces expansion. #econsky
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Hiring Rises but Layoffs Show a Divided Labor Market
Private employers added 42,000 jobs in October according to the ADP National Employment Report, marking the first increase since July.
At first…...
Hiring Rises but Layoffs Show a Divided Labor Market
Private employers added 42,000 jobs in October according to the ADP National Employment Report, marking the first increase since July.
At first ...
www.linkedin.com
November 5, 2025 at 1:26 PM
ADP shows 42K jobs added in October, the first gain since July. Big firms hired while smaller ones cut. My take is that the job market looks steady on paper but is shifting underneath as efficiency replaces expansion. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
America’s first-time homebuyers are now 40 years old and make up only 21 percent of all buyers. My take is that a decade-long delay in homeownership is reshaping how Americans build wealth and spend, shifting power toward older, equity-rich households. #econsky
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Highlights From the Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers | Thomas J Thompson
NAR Report Reveals a Record Age for First-Time Homebuyers
The National Association of REALTORS® has just released its annual Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, and it tells a story of a market that ...
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November 4, 2025 at 3:28 PM
America’s first-time homebuyers are now 40 years old and make up only 21 percent of all buyers. My take is that a decade-long delay in homeownership is reshaping how Americans build wealth and spend, shifting power toward older, equity-rich households. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Subprime borrowing is rising again as personal loans surge. The surface looks steady but strain is spreading fast. My take this is not weakness but wear an economy running on borrowed breathing room and fading optimism. #econsky
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Subprime is rising again as personal loans surge.
Subprime borrowing is rising again and personal loans have surged to record levels. That may not sound like a crisis, but it is a quiet warning… | Th...
Subprime is rising again as personal loans surge.
Subprime borrowing is rising again and personal loans have surged to record levels. That may not sound like a crisis, but it is a quiet warning about...
www.linkedin.com
November 3, 2025 at 2:03 PM
Subprime borrowing is rising again as personal loans surge. The surface looks steady but strain is spreading fast. My take this is not weakness but wear an economy running on borrowed breathing room and fading optimism. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Starbucks says no to a value menu while McDonald’s brings back five dollar meals - a clear picture of an economy splitting in two. One side spends for survival. The other spends for identity. Even coffee now reveals who still feels secure enough to indulge. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Starbucks CEO Says No to Value Menu as the Consumer Divide Grows
Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol told CBS News today that the company has no plans to introduce a value menu, even as coffee prices have… | ...
Starbucks CEO Says No to Value Menu as the Consumer Divide Grows
Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol told CBS News today that the company has no plans to introduce a value menu, even as coffee prices have cli...
www.linkedin.com
October 31, 2025 at 3:08 PM
Starbucks says no to a value menu while McDonald’s brings back five dollar meals - a clear picture of an economy splitting in two. One side spends for survival. The other spends for identity. Even coffee now reveals who still feels secure enough to indulge. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Visa and MC beat expectations this week, showing that consumers are still spending even as wages stall and borrowing costs rise. It feels like confidence but it may just be credit keeping the economy moving as resilience begins to look more like reliance. #econsky
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Visa and Mastercard Beat Expectations
Consumer credit may be what is keeping the economy afloat. Visa and Mastercard both beat expectations this week, giving us one of the few real-time signals of… |...
Visa and Mastercard Beat Expectations
Consumer credit may be what is keeping the economy afloat. Visa and Mastercard both beat expectations this week, giving us one of the few real-time signals of sp...
www.linkedin.com
October 30, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Visa and MC beat expectations this week, showing that consumers are still spending even as wages stall and borrowing costs rise. It feels like confidence but it may just be credit keeping the economy moving as resilience begins to look more like reliance. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
The Fed cut rates to 3.75–4.00 and will end balance sheet runoff Dec 1. With no new data from the shutdown, the move shows more concern for jobs than inflation. My take: this isn’t stimulus, it’s insurance. #econsky
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
Fed Cuts Rates by Another Quarter Point, but Data Blackout Obscures the Path Ahead
The move extends an effort to prevent a recent slowdown in hiring from turning into something more serious.
www.wsj.com
October 29, 2025 at 6:13 PM
The Fed cut rates to 3.75–4.00 and will end balance sheet runoff Dec 1. With no new data from the shutdown, the move shows more concern for jobs than inflation. My take: this isn’t stimulus, it’s insurance. #econsky
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
Nvidia at five trillion shows how belief becomes capital. Markets are pricing in a perfect AI future long before productivity catches up. My take is that this moment defines the psychology of the new economy and the scale of collective optimism. #econsky
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Nvidia First to $5 Trillion
A few years ago, the idea of a five trillion dollar company would have sounded impossible. Today it is real. NVIDIA just crossed that mark, becoming more valuable than… | ...
Nvidia First to $5 Trillion
A few years ago, the idea of a five trillion dollar company would have sounded impossible. Today it is real. NVIDIA just crossed that mark, becoming more valuable than the...
www.linkedin.com
October 29, 2025 at 2:28 PM
Nvidia at five trillion shows how belief becomes capital. Markets are pricing in a perfect AI future long before productivity catches up. My take is that this moment defines the psychology of the new economy and the scale of collective optimism. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Consumer confidence held steady at 94.6 as Americans stay secure for now but uneasy about what comes next. My take is that confidence is holding even as sentiment softens which shows people still trust their own footing more than the headlines. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Consumer Confidence Holds Steady as Americans Stay Cautiously Optimistic
Consumer confidence barely moved in October. The Conference Board’s index slipped just one point to 94.6 from a revised 95.6… ...
Consumer Confidence Holds Steady as Americans Stay Cautiously Optimistic
Consumer confidence barely moved in October. The Conference Board’s index slipped just one point to 94.6 from a revised 95.6 i...
www.linkedin.com
October 28, 2025 at 2:12 PM
Consumer confidence held steady at 94.6 as Americans stay secure for now but uneasy about what comes next. My take is that confidence is holding even as sentiment softens which shows people still trust their own footing more than the headlines. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Amazon plans to cut 30,000 corporate jobs, per Reuters. Front-line demand is strong while corporate roles shrink through automation. With jobs data paused by the shutdown, this is one of the few real signals of how the labor market is shifting. #econsky
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Amazon reportedly plans to cut 30,000 corporate jobs
Reuters reports that Amazon plans to eliminate about 30,000 corporate positions beginning this week. The company has not commented on the report.…...
Amazon reportedly plans to cut 30,000 corporate jobs
Reuters reports that Amazon plans to eliminate about 30,000 corporate positions beginning this week. The company has not commented on the report. ...
www.linkedin.com
October 27, 2025 at 7:24 PM
Amazon plans to cut 30,000 corporate jobs, per Reuters. Front-line demand is strong while corporate roles shrink through automation. With jobs data paused by the shutdown, this is one of the few real signals of how the labor market is shifting. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Inflation rose less than expected in September. CPI up 0.3%, core up 0.2%, both 3.0% year over year. My take is that this keeps the Fed on course to cut, with inflation slowing for the right reasons and the economy still holding together. #econsky
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US Inflation Rises Less Than Expected in September
After a month’s delay caused by the government shutdown, the September Consumer Price Index finally arrived and showed a softer reading than many… |...
US Inflation Rises Less Than Expected in September
After a month’s delay caused by the government shutdown, the September Consumer Price Index finally arrived and showed a softer reading than many ex...
www.linkedin.com
October 24, 2025 at 12:54 PM
Inflation rose less than expected in September. CPI up 0.3%, core up 0.2%, both 3.0% year over year. My take is that this keeps the Fed on course to cut, with inflation slowing for the right reasons and the economy still holding together. #econsky
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Even with Washington shut down, housing is stirring. Sales up 1.5% to 4.06M, prices up 2% to $415K. Not a boom, but a thaw with confidence creeping back. #econsky
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Existing Home Sales Rise Despite the Shutdown
Even with much of Washington shut down, the housing market is still open for business. While most economic data has gone silent during the government… | ...
Existing Home Sales Rise Despite the Shutdown
Even with much of Washington shut down, the housing market is still open for business. While most economic data has gone silent during the government shu...
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October 23, 2025 at 2:20 PM
Even with Washington shut down, housing is stirring. Sales up 1.5% to 4.06M, prices up 2% to $415K. Not a boom, but a thaw with confidence creeping back. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Consumers are showing signs of discount burnout ahead of Black Friday. When everything is on sale, nothing feels like a deal. We may be entering a post-promotion economy where value, trust, and quality matter more than markdowns. #econsky
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#economy #consumerbehavior #retailtrends | Thomas J Thompson
‘Discount Burnout’ Could Define This Holiday Shopping Season
Retailers may have a problem this holiday season as consumers are tired of being sold a sale. According to new data from AlixPartners, sho...
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October 22, 2025 at 1:03 PM
Consumers are showing signs of discount burnout ahead of Black Friday. When everything is on sale, nothing feels like a deal. We may be entering a post-promotion economy where value, trust, and quality matter more than markdowns. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Netflix’s quarter looked messy but was strong. Revenue up 17 percent, record engagement, nearly 9 billion in free cash flow. Brazil tax hit masked an otherwise solid story. Netflix doesn’t sell a necessity. It sells comfort, connection, and continuity. #econsky
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#netflix #earnings #behavioraleconomics | Thomas J Thompson
Netflix’s “Tax Twist” Quarter Still Signals Strength in Consumer Discretionary
Netflix’s latest earnings offer more depth than the initial market reaction might imply. The company reported 17 percent...
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October 21, 2025 at 8:23 PM
Netflix’s quarter looked messy but was strong. Revenue up 17 percent, record engagement, nearly 9 billion in free cash flow. Brazil tax hit masked an otherwise solid story. Netflix doesn’t sell a necessity. It sells comfort, connection, and continuity. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
OpenAI just launched ChatGPT Atlas, an AI-powered browser that turns intent into action. Users won’t search, they’ll describe and delegate. The internet is shifting from discovery to decision, and the browser is becoming the interface of choice itself. #econsky
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#ai #marketing #economy | Thomas J Thompson
OpenAI Enters the AI Browser Wars With ChatGPT Atlas
OpenAI announced the launch of ChatGPT Atlas, its first AI-powered web browser, positioning itself as a direct competitor to Google Chrome. Atlas ...
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October 21, 2025 at 5:38 PM
OpenAI just launched ChatGPT Atlas, an AI-powered browser that turns intent into action. Users won’t search, they’ll describe and delegate. The internet is shifting from discovery to decision, and the browser is becoming the interface of choice itself. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
When space becomes investable it becomes inevitable. Barclays projects space bonds could reach $25B by 2034, a sign that the market now treats orbit the way it once treated highways and airports. #econsky
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#economy #infrastructure #space | Thomas J Thompson
Barclays Predicts $25 Billion Market for Space Bonds
It’s not often that space and municipal finance share a headline, but Barclays just projected that “space bonds” could become a $25 billion market...
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October 20, 2025 at 7:13 PM
When space becomes investable it becomes inevitable. Barclays projects space bonds could reach $25B by 2034, a sign that the market now treats orbit the way it once treated highways and airports. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Amex beat expectations as demand for its $895 Platinum Card surged even with the government shut down. In uncertain times people buy stability and status to feel secure. Consumers are not buying credit, they are buying confidence. #econsky
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Amex Beats Expectations as Demand for $895 Platinum Card Surges
American Express reported stronger than expected earnings this morning, driven by remarkable demand for its refreshed Platinum Card… | ...
Amex Beats Expectations as Demand for $895 Platinum Card Surges
American Express reported stronger than expected earnings this morning, driven by remarkable demand for its refreshed Platinum Card. Ne...
www.linkedin.com
October 17, 2025 at 1:06 PM
Amex beat expectations as demand for its $895 Platinum Card surged even with the government shut down. In uncertain times people buy stability and status to feel secure. Consumers are not buying credit, they are buying confidence. #econsky
www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Underwater car loans hit a 4-year high as nearly 1 in 3 trade-ins carry negative equity. Prices remain above $50K, budget models fade, and confidence dips amid the shutdown. Stress for some, opportunity for others. The middle is feeling the squeeze. #econsky
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Underwater Car Loans Reach a Four-Year High
A growing number of Americans now owe more on their cars than those cars are worth. Nearly 28 percent of trade-ins toward new vehicles carried negative… | ...
Underwater Car Loans Reach a Four-Year High
A growing number of Americans now owe more on their cars than those cars are worth. Nearly 28 percent of trade-ins toward new vehicles carried negative equ...
www.linkedin.com
October 16, 2025 at 12:30 PM
Underwater car loans hit a 4-year high as nearly 1 in 3 trade-ins carry negative equity. Prices remain above $50K, budget models fade, and confidence dips amid the shutdown. Stress for some, opportunity for others. The middle is feeling the squeeze. #econsky
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www.linkedin.com/posts/thomas...
Plaid launched LendScore, a real-time credit score using cash-flow data instead of credit history. It comes as banks post record profits while credit tightens for subprime borrowers. Whether lenders use it to expand access or protect margins will shape who gets to borrow next. #econsky
October 15, 2025 at 12:20 PM
Plaid launched LendScore, a real-time credit score using cash-flow data instead of credit history. It comes as banks post record profits while credit tightens for subprime borrowers. Whether lenders use it to expand access or protect margins will shape who gets to borrow next. #econsky
NFIB small business optimism fell to 98.8 in September, a three-month low recorded before the shutdown. Even then, owners faced rising costs, tighter credit, and slower sales. Small businesses employ nearly half of all private workers. When their confidence drops, the economy follows. #econsky
October 14, 2025 at 2:21 PM
NFIB small business optimism fell to 98.8 in September, a three-month low recorded before the shutdown. Even then, owners faced rising costs, tighter credit, and slower sales. Small businesses employ nearly half of all private workers. When their confidence drops, the economy follows. #econsky
Congrats to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt on winning the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences today. Their work on innovation and economic growth transformed how we understand long-term prosperity and productivity, showing how ideas and competition drive progress. #econsky
October 13, 2025 at 2:04 PM
Congrats to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt on winning the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences today. Their work on innovation and economic growth transformed how we understand long-term prosperity and productivity, showing how ideas and competition drive progress. #econsky