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Stephen Daisley @stephendaisley.bsky.social · 6h

Really good thread on the SNP’s risible energy policies.

1/ In today’s Mail, @stephendaisley.bsky.social mentions a conversation we had about the SNP’s energy policies. Short 🧵 with sources and a little bit of additional explanation…

Yet this abject nonsense is the SNP's policy. I discussed this over the weekend with Sam Taylor from the think-tank These Islands. He has made himself the personal scourge of the Scottish Government's fanciful energy policies.
He points out the government's renewables analysis is based on the assumption that while Scotland's wind energy demand will rise to 6,000 megawatts over the next decade, its wind capacity will increase to 49,400 megawatts.
Yet to assemble that capacity would mean installing turbines on an unprecedented scale, at unprecedented cost, and benefiting from the UK-wide energy market - from which the Scottish Government otherwise wishes to secede.
Taylor notes that SNP ministers' favourite example, Norway, while a non-nuclear renewables success story, has struggled to generate sufficient energy in the recent past and has often had to rely on neighbouring Sweden, with its nuclear power stations.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 7h

1/ In today’s Mail, @stephendaisley.bsky.social mentions a conversation we had about the SNP’s energy policies. Short 🧵 with sources and a little bit of additional explanation…

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 2d

1/ Tim Rideout has a new website. He believes a stampede of people will rapidly convert their sterling life savings into his new currency, while those with sterling liabilities will be much slower to act on converting their debts. This is not just implausible. It is preposterous.

there is no change to Sterling debts until such time as people and business ask for their banks to exchange them into
Scottish Pounds, then it is expected that the exchange of debts into Scottish Pounds will lag significantly behind the exchange of deposits and cash.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 9d

Just catching up on Kate Forbes interview with Colin Mackay on Monday. How does she defend an indefensible currency position? By arguing that nobody cares about currency. If people care about their wages, I’m pretty sure they care about which currency those wages are paid in…

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 11d

1/ This is a very carefully worded statement from Scot Gov, responding to accusations that John Swinney has misled parliament on tax.🧵

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 13d

1/ This is outrageous. John Swinney misled parliament by falsely claiming that more than half of taxpayers in Scotland pay less income tax than if they lived elsewhere in the UK. Scot Gov says this is perfectly fine because his remarks were based on SFC forecasts for 2025-26.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 14d

The video which ran before John Swinney’s speech showed this wave energy converter as he claimed independence would reduce energy bills in Scotland. The cost of wave power is £360-£380/MWh - about 4.5x higher than the wholesale cost in bills today. His rhetoric is utterly false.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 14d

Surely nobody could be dumb enough to claim “Scotland has 25% of Europe’s offshore wind potential” at this year’s SNP conference? Step forward Bill Kidd MSP, who makes the even more ludicrous claim that Scotland has 25% of *all* the renewables potential in Europe.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 15d

How does John Swinney respond to a very fair question about the GERS figures? In the most facile way imaginable: “the UK has a deficit too, Liz Truss, Boris Johnson, blah blah blah…”

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 15d

Independence is not simply a one-way bet for Scottish households, Martin Geissler points out. And John Swinney has no answer, except arm-waving talk about other nations. Not credible and not serious. #BBCSundayShow

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 15d

Another mauling for John Swinney on his ludicrous currency proposals. This time, all he can do is accuse Martin Geissler of being overly gloomy, and suggest that Scotland’s renewables will somehow come to the rescue. Desperate and embarrassing stuff.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 17d

Pressed by Peter Smith for answers on his independence paper’s currency proposals, John Swinney simply doesn’t have them. All he can do is retreat to his comfort zone of magical thinking on child poverty.

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These Islands @theseislands.bsky.social · 17d

Full article: on.ft.com/3J7f5iR

SNP seeks to exploit unionist rift with fresh independence pitch

John Swinney to set out plans for second referendum at party conference as Reform splits Scottish pro-union vote

on.ft.com

These Islands @theseislands.bsky.social · 17d

The most serious failure of the SNP’s latest independence paper is that it completely ducks the question of how an independent Scotland would get its public finances onto a sustainable footing.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 18d

1/ Assuming John Swinney hasn’t had enough of experts, he might want to reflect on what they have had to say about the currency and fiscal proposals (or lack thereof) in his latest independence paper. @t0nyyates.bsky.social was unimpressed.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 18d

The ferries debacle and the future of Ferguson Marine have been massive stories in Scotland. So you’d think the First Minister might remember when he last visited the yard. You’d be wrong.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 24d

1/ John Swinney has not only misled parliament. His government has also broken repeated budget commitments, made firstly by him as acting Cabinet Secretary for Finance, and subsequently (twice) by Shona Robison.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 24d

1/ Update. The data cited below strongly suggested that John Swinney misled parliament yesterday, but it wasn’t quite definitive. Because all taxpayers in Scotland benefit from the 19% starter rate, the tipping point at which taxpayers paid more in 2023-24 was about £2k above…

Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 25d

1/ According to the latest Scottish Income Tax Outturn Statistics, intermediate + higher + top rate taxpayers were 57% of all taxpayers in Scotland in 2023-24.

These bands all pay tax at rates higher than the rUK equivalents.

Source: www.gov.uk/government/s...

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 26d

1/ Shona Robison tells the Finance & Public Administration Committee she hasn’t yet raised a particular issue with the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, at which point a civil servant pushes over a laptop to remind Robison that she has in fact reached an agreement on the issue.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 26d

1/ Shona Robison gave evidence yesterday to the Finance & Public Administration Committee, and did not know what the government’s target for reducing civil service headcount is. The convener of the committee had to tell the Cabinet Secretary what her own target is. 🤯

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 28d

Does the Scottish Government have any information which substantiates the First Minister's claim that energy bills would be cheaper in an independent Scotland?

Of course not. None that it’s prepared to share, anyway. Apparently it’s “material in the course of completion”.

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These Islands @theseislands.bsky.social · Sep 7

Using the latest GERS figures, @kevverage.bsky.social compares Scotland’s fiscal position with independent EU countries and argues that a fiscally autonomous Scotland would need to dramatically reduce investment in public services.

GERS 2025: Full Fiscal Autonomy?

Kevin Hague uses the latest GERS figures to compare Scotland’s fiscal position with independent EU countries and argues that a fiscally autonomous Scotland would need to dramatically reduce investment...

www.these-islands.co.uk

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · Aug 28

1/ John Swinney used yesterday’s Ofgem price cap news to once again claim that independence is the solution to high energy bills in Scotland.

Coincidentally, Dorenell Windfarm Ltd published its accounts yesterday, and those accounts expose the vacuity of Swinney’s rhetoric.🧵

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · Aug 27

John Swinney is not telling the truth.

Wholesale costs are actually down vs the prior period, but bills are up because of “network and policy costs” - costs disproportionately *caused* by Scotland.

Independence would *increase* Scottish household’s exposure to these costs.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · Aug 25

This is why Scot Gov opposed zonal pricing. It would have jeopardised many renewables projects.

But zonal pricing would have been a very mild form of independence for the electricity market in Scotland. Actual independence would kill the Scottish renewables pipeline stone dead.

Developer CWP Energy said the project could now proceed to financial close following last month's decision by the current UK government to drop plans for "zonal electricity pricing". Had that policy gone ahead, it would have disincentivised the development of wind farms and other renewable energy projects across Scotland.

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