Benedict Evans
@thebenedictevans.bsky.social
Trying to work out what's going on, and what happens next. Mostly tech.
Ben-Evans.com
Ben-Evans.com
Idea: a book where each chapter explains why something lots of people believe without question is wrong.
Facebook sells your data, buybacks are bad, rent control is good, $100 Nikes cost $1 to make, foreigners pay our tariffs, you can fix deficits by cutting waste/taxing billionaires…
Facebook sells your data, buybacks are bad, rent control is good, $100 Nikes cost $1 to make, foreigners pay our tariffs, you can fix deficits by cutting waste/taxing billionaires…
November 8, 2025 at 3:31 PM
Idea: a book where each chapter explains why something lots of people believe without question is wrong.
Facebook sells your data, buybacks are bad, rent control is good, $100 Nikes cost $1 to make, foreigners pay our tariffs, you can fix deficits by cutting waste/taxing billionaires…
Facebook sells your data, buybacks are bad, rent control is good, $100 Nikes cost $1 to make, foreigners pay our tariffs, you can fix deficits by cutting waste/taxing billionaires…
"Facebook sells your data" is such a strange little cult.
Not only do you persuade yourself that "sells user data" is a good way to describe a system in which no-one gets user data - you persuade yourself that this bizarre pretzeled logic is so obvious that one who says 'um, what?' is a moron
Not only do you persuade yourself that "sells user data" is a good way to describe a system in which no-one gets user data - you persuade yourself that this bizarre pretzeled logic is so obvious that one who says 'um, what?' is a moron
November 3, 2025 at 5:27 AM
"Facebook sells your data" is such a strange little cult.
Not only do you persuade yourself that "sells user data" is a good way to describe a system in which no-one gets user data - you persuade yourself that this bizarre pretzeled logic is so obvious that one who says 'um, what?' is a moron
Not only do you persuade yourself that "sells user data" is a good way to describe a system in which no-one gets user data - you persuade yourself that this bizarre pretzeled logic is so obvious that one who says 'um, what?' is a moron
It’s interesting how consistent survey data on LLM usage is. Something like 10% of people are using this every day or so, another 15 or 20% every week or two, and then about 50% have looked at it and not come back.
April 24, 2025 at 1:57 PM
It’s interesting how consistent survey data on LLM usage is. Something like 10% of people are using this every day or so, another 15 or 20% every week or two, and then about 50% have looked at it and not come back.
This is a good expression of the bemusement that people who build companies have for the whole 'enshittification' idea (if they thought about it at all).
Do you want to build something that's used a lot by a lot of people, or are you running an unambitious lifestyle business?
Do you want to build something that's used a lot by a lot of people, or are you running an unambitious lifestyle business?
April 15, 2025 at 7:27 AM
This is a good expression of the bemusement that people who build companies have for the whole 'enshittification' idea (if they thought about it at all).
Do you want to build something that's used a lot by a lot of people, or are you running an unambitious lifestyle business?
Do you want to build something that's used a lot by a lot of people, or are you running an unambitious lifestyle business?
It’s kind of amazing how many people think that a typical company has enough profit margin to absorb an import tax of 25-54% without raising prices. Almost no company has that money.
April 6, 2025 at 12:03 PM
It’s kind of amazing how many people think that a typical company has enough profit margin to absorb an import tax of 25-54% without raising prices. Almost no company has that money.
Say what you like about Trump and his tariffs, but he's making stocks much more affordable for ordinary Americans.
April 3, 2025 at 7:22 PM
Say what you like about Trump and his tariffs, but he's making stocks much more affordable for ordinary Americans.
It’s always interesting to read threads by people taking about ‘generative AI stealing from artists’ and then go to look at art where the concept of ‘stealing’ or ‘copying’ is meaningless (unless a cat-burglar is involved). Two totally different concepts of what ‘art’ means.
March 11, 2025 at 1:11 PM
It’s always interesting to read threads by people taking about ‘generative AI stealing from artists’ and then go to look at art where the concept of ‘stealing’ or ‘copying’ is meaningless (unless a cat-burglar is involved). Two totally different concepts of what ‘art’ means.
I’m trying to keep track. Does genAI mean that no one will have to write code or that everyone will be writing code?
March 11, 2025 at 1:29 AM
I’m trying to keep track. Does genAI mean that no one will have to write code or that everyone will be writing code?
Britain: "voting for Brexit is the greatest act of national self-harm in a generation"
America: "Hold my beer"
America: "Hold my beer"
March 4, 2025 at 3:39 PM
Britain: "voting for Brexit is the greatest act of national self-harm in a generation"
America: "Hold my beer"
America: "Hold my beer"
It's worth re-reading this to understand why so many people in tech thought Biden's tech policy was so bad. Uncritical acceptance of Tristan Harris of all people, presumption that DC should control everything, and in general a tone of panic and negativity.
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
Biden’s Elusive AI Whisperer Finally Goes On the Record. Here's His Warning.
Bruce Reed had seen the pitfalls of letting Big Tech run roughshod over government. He is determined not to make the same mistakes on AI.
www.politico.com
February 20, 2025 at 1:35 PM
It's worth re-reading this to understand why so many people in tech thought Biden's tech policy was so bad. Uncritical acceptance of Tristan Harris of all people, presumption that DC should control everything, and in general a tone of panic and negativity.
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
www.politico.com/news/magazin...
From November 2023, the column I wrote about Humane for subscribers to my paid newsletter, in which I compared it to General Magic.
mailchi.mp/30c174e4f48f...
mailchi.mp/30c174e4f48f...
Benedict's Newsletter
mailchi.mp
February 20, 2025 at 1:12 PM
From November 2023, the column I wrote about Humane for subscribers to my paid newsletter, in which I compared it to General Magic.
mailchi.mp/30c174e4f48f...
mailchi.mp/30c174e4f48f...
OpenAI’s Deep Research is built for me, and I can’t use it. It’s another amazing demo, until it breaks. But it breaks in really interesting ways.
www.ben-evans.com/benedictevan...
www.ben-evans.com/benedictevan...
The Deep Research problem — Benedict Evans
OpenAI’s Deep Research is built for me, and I can’t use it. It’s another amazing demo, until it breaks. But it breaks in really interesting ways.
www.ben-evans.com
February 18, 2025 at 5:36 PM
OpenAI’s Deep Research is built for me, and I can’t use it. It’s another amazing demo, until it breaks. But it breaks in really interesting ways.
www.ben-evans.com/benedictevan...
www.ben-evans.com/benedictevan...
Congratulations to Grok on spending a lot of money to be yet another company on the leaderboards for a commodity technology with no defensibility that we know of.
February 18, 2025 at 5:36 PM
Congratulations to Grok on spending a lot of money to be yet another company on the leaderboards for a commodity technology with no defensibility that we know of.
LLMs are very bad at knowing if they are wrong (a deterministic problem), but very good at knowing if they would probably be wrong (a probabilistic problem).
February 10, 2025 at 12:13 PM
LLMs are very bad at knowing if they are wrong (a deterministic problem), but very good at knowing if they would probably be wrong (a probabilistic problem).
“We’re going to kill McKinsey” startups are the new “we’re going to kill Bloomberg”
Those companies do difficult valuable things that people pay for, and there are graveyards full of failed competitors. It might be harder than it looks.
Those companies do difficult valuable things that people pay for, and there are graveyards full of failed competitors. It might be harder than it looks.
February 10, 2025 at 11:58 AM
“We’re going to kill McKinsey” startups are the new “we’re going to kill Bloomberg”
Those companies do difficult valuable things that people pay for, and there are graveyards full of failed competitors. It might be harder than it looks.
Those companies do difficult valuable things that people pay for, and there are graveyards full of failed competitors. It might be harder than it looks.
This is hilarious
February 2, 2025 at 1:16 AM
This is hilarious
The dream of AI 'computer use' is that the GUI is the new API, just as English is the new programming language.
(Sadly, in tech the reality often turns out to be more complicated than the dream).
(Sadly, in tech the reality often turns out to be more complicated than the dream).
January 26, 2025 at 10:00 PM
The dream of AI 'computer use' is that the GUI is the new API, just as English is the new programming language.
(Sadly, in tech the reality often turns out to be more complicated than the dream).
(Sadly, in tech the reality often turns out to be more complicated than the dream).
OpenAI: we got a step change in results for massively more money.
Deepseek: we matched existing results for massively less money and open-sourced everything.
OpenAI: we want to borrow $500bn.
🤔
Deepseek: we matched existing results for massively less money and open-sourced everything.
OpenAI: we want to borrow $500bn.
🤔
January 25, 2025 at 9:51 PM
OpenAI: we got a step change in results for massively more money.
Deepseek: we matched existing results for massively less money and open-sourced everything.
OpenAI: we want to borrow $500bn.
🤔
Deepseek: we matched existing results for massively less money and open-sourced everything.
OpenAI: we want to borrow $500bn.
🤔
I wrote something wondering - are better models better?
Every week there’s a better AI model that gives better answers. But a lot of questions don’t have better answers, only ‘right’ answers, and these models can’t do that. So should we change what we expect?
www.ben-evans.com/benedictevan...
Every week there’s a better AI model that gives better answers. But a lot of questions don’t have better answers, only ‘right’ answers, and these models can’t do that. So should we change what we expect?
www.ben-evans.com/benedictevan...
Are better models better? — Benedict Evans
Every week there’s a better AI model that gives better answers. But a lot of questions don’t have better answers, only ‘right’ answers, and these models can’t do that. So what does ‘better’ mean, how...
www.ben-evans.com
January 22, 2025 at 8:04 PM
I wrote something wondering - are better models better?
Every week there’s a better AI model that gives better answers. But a lot of questions don’t have better answers, only ‘right’ answers, and these models can’t do that. So should we change what we expect?
www.ben-evans.com/benedictevan...
Every week there’s a better AI model that gives better answers. But a lot of questions don’t have better answers, only ‘right’ answers, and these models can’t do that. So should we change what we expect?
www.ben-evans.com/benedictevan...
I don't know what we should make of an announcement of a '$500bn' investment when none of the names involved so far have anything like that kind of money.
Oracle barely has $10bn FCF. OpenAI has none. MGX was last heard of 'targeting' $100bn AUM. Softbank?
Oracle barely has $10bn FCF. OpenAI has none. MGX was last heard of 'targeting' $100bn AUM. Softbank?
January 22, 2025 at 3:26 PM
I don't know what we should make of an announcement of a '$500bn' investment when none of the names involved so far have anything like that kind of money.
Oracle barely has $10bn FCF. OpenAI has none. MGX was last heard of 'targeting' $100bn AUM. Softbank?
Oracle barely has $10bn FCF. OpenAI has none. MGX was last heard of 'targeting' $100bn AUM. Softbank?
There are so many dark patterns in Substack that I really wonder about the trade-offs between an eye-catching total subscriber figure (a vanity metric) and the open rate (your actual audience).
I have stayed on an old-school stack with no third party network effects, but I also have a 50% open rate
I have stayed on an old-school stack with no third party network effects, but I also have a 50% open rate
January 21, 2025 at 2:06 PM
There are so many dark patterns in Substack that I really wonder about the trade-offs between an eye-catching total subscriber figure (a vanity metric) and the open rate (your actual audience).
I have stayed on an old-school stack with no third party network effects, but I also have a 50% open rate
I have stayed on an old-school stack with no third party network effects, but I also have a 50% open rate
How many people in tech think that one of these is worth the other?
That AI executive order was really dumb. Amazingly, terribly dumb. But.
That AI executive order was really dumb. Amazingly, terribly dumb. But.
January 21, 2025 at 12:37 PM
How many people in tech think that one of these is worth the other?
That AI executive order was really dumb. Amazingly, terribly dumb. But.
That AI executive order was really dumb. Amazingly, terribly dumb. But.
The whole 'LLMs will kill SaaS because now you can just ask' thesis conflicts with the fact that every no-code app hits a hard ceiling and bottom-up enterprise adoption almost never works.
People don't know what tools they need and they don't know what they're doing that could be automated.
People don't know what tools they need and they don't know what they're doing that could be automated.
January 20, 2025 at 10:48 PM
The whole 'LLMs will kill SaaS because now you can just ask' thesis conflicts with the fact that every no-code app hits a hard ceiling and bottom-up enterprise adoption almost never works.
People don't know what tools they need and they don't know what they're doing that could be automated.
People don't know what tools they need and they don't know what they're doing that could be automated.
Reading a policy document arguing for an entirely new tech ecosystem in Europe, covering everything from chip design to a new smartphone OS
GLENDOWER I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
HOTSPUR Why, so can I, or so can any man;
But will they come when you do call for them?
GLENDOWER I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
HOTSPUR Why, so can I, or so can any man;
But will they come when you do call for them?
January 15, 2025 at 1:12 PM
Reading a policy document arguing for an entirely new tech ecosystem in Europe, covering everything from chip design to a new smartphone OS
GLENDOWER I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
HOTSPUR Why, so can I, or so can any man;
But will they come when you do call for them?
GLENDOWER I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
HOTSPUR Why, so can I, or so can any man;
But will they come when you do call for them?