Among the so-called major currencies in the floating foreign exchange market (Forex), the US dollar (DXY) was the weakest major currency in 2025. This was also the case during the first year of President Trump’s first term in 2017; however, the second year (2018) saw a strong bullish recovery in the US dollar. Will 2026 be a bullish year for the US dollar? Beyond a prospective “déjà vu” scenario similar to 2018 (2026 is indeed the second year of Trump’s second term), it is essential to focus …

Will Bitcoin manage to initiate a genuine rebound during the first quarter of 2026, while the market continues to question the nature of the current move: a simple mid-cycle correction or a true entry into a cyclical bear market? The debate remains open, but several signals deserve close attention. In financial markets, performance is primarily a matter of rotation between major asset classes. BTC is no exception to this rule and is evolving within a powerful relative cycle against precious …

Who will be the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, and which of the two leading candidates is more favorable to risk assets in financial markets? President Trump is expected to appoint the next Fed Chair this January. This individual will act as a shadow Fed Chair until the end of Jerome Powell’s term in May. Let us examine several key factors: • Their stance on the inflation/employment trade-off • Their stance toward equity markets • Their stance toward the cryptocurrency market • Their …

Despite the geopolitical events at the start of 2026, oil prices have remained at low levels on financial markets. The global abundance of oil supply (record US oil production and rising OPEC output) continues to exert underlying downward pressure, with a technical downtrend in place since late 2023, which in turn supports disinflation. A breakout above the $65 resistance level in US crude oil prices would constitute a major bullish reversal signal. Here are the dominant fundamental …

After recent geopolitical noise and US employment data, this second week of January marks the major return of US inflation indicators through the CPI and PPI releases. While the sharp drop in inflation in November surprised markets, real-time inflation measures now appear to have fallen back below 2%. Is this credible? Has US inflation truly been defeated, allowing the Federal Reserve to resume cuts to the federal funds rate in the first quarter of 2026? Tuesday, January 13, 2026, brings the …

This analysis does not aim to anticipate future developments in the relationship between the United States and Greenland, nor does it seek to venture into geopolitical, institutional, or diplomatic considerations. Hypotheses regarding territorial attachment, sovereignty, or changes in Greenland’s status fall outside the scope of this study. The objective is deliberately more limited and pragmatic: to examine the potential economic consequences of increased US involvement in Greenland, in …

Recent geopolitical developments surrounding Venezuela have reignited tensions in the global energy market and brought renewed attention to the US energy sector, which could (this remains conditional) potentially benefit in the more or less near future. In this context, markets are anticipating possible supply disruptions, but above all a reshuffling between Venezuela’s historical producers and major US oil players. Sector flows partially rotated into energy at the start of the week, with …

Within the precious metals segment of the commodities market, silver was the clear leader in 2025, posting a performance of more than 150%, twice that of gold. Silver benefited from a combination of fundamental and technical factors: • A strong positive correlation with gold prices • A phase of technical outperformance (bullish signals from the Silver/Gold ratio in 2025) relative to gold • Strong industrial demand (AI, solar energy, electric vehicles) • In the United States, silver was added …

The year 2025 was highly favorable for risk assets, and the S&P 500 is starting the year close to its all-time high, in a context of very elevated equity valuations and persistently optimistic expectations for corporate earnings growth, particularly in the US technology sector. Will the S&P 500 extend its bullish momentum or enter a profit-taking phase in January? The answer to this question will depend on several key fundamental issues, for which initial answers will be available during the …