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Philip Stafford

@staffordphilip.bsky.social

6.2K followers 230 following 510 posts

Digital Markets News editor at the Financial Times https://bsky.app/profile/financialtimes.com. Bits of markets, bits of market structure, bits of crypto or mix of all of them. If you've been spammed in your DM with a crypto scam, it's not me.

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Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · Jan 22

Sadly I have a new impostor.
It's not me - note the double 'l' in Phillip.

If you've been contacted, pls ignore/delete the message and report them. Thanks.

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Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 6h

Sounds very much like it: the most expose company from the SVB failure was Circle

Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 6h

I wouldn't be surprised if it were a narrow bank, involving stablecoins.
www.ft.com/content/202d...

US approves new bank backed by billionaires with ties to Trump

Target market for Erebor will be businesses that are part of America’s ‘innovation economy’

www.ft.com

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Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 13h

Talk of creative debt, "debt partnerships", no concerns about profitability, a fuzzy five-year horizon, cashing in on its IP (but others' IP is free?) and: "I don’t view them as drunken sailors going to bars and laying down IOUs everywhere".
www.ft.com/content/a169...

OpenAI makes five-year business plan to meet $1tn spending pledges

New revenue lines, debt partnerships and further fundraising targeted to cover enormous costs

www.ft.com

Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 13h

A week later and gold is now at $4200.
www.ft.com/content/ed7f...

Gold price tops $4,000 for first time

Prices have doubled in less than two years as central banks stockpile bullion and investors pour in to gold funds

www.ft.com

Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 15h

And I thought it was the CIA's job to meddle with South American elections
www.ft.com/content/c1cf...

Donald Trump says US support for Argentina is ‘gone’ if Javier Milei suffers election losses

US president suggests $20bn swap line is contingent on libertarian’s victory in midterm elections

www.ft.com

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Reposted by Philip Stafford

Jck✨ @jck-1.bsky.social · 2d

THE SILVER SQUEEZE

Reposted by Philip Stafford

Hilary J. Allen @profhilaryallen.bsky.social · 2d

No one does.

fintechdystopia.com/chapters/cha...

At the same time as protections for the public are being torched, other more overt handouts to the crypto industry are in the works. In particular, whackadoo proposals for the U.S. Government to create a strategic reserve of bitcoins are now being taken seriously. I regularly get asked questions about these proposals, and it’s hard for me to answer them with a straight face. I want to reply by saying “it is patently ridiculous for the United States to establish a strategic reserve of magic beans,” dropping the mic, and walking off stage, but we have sadly reached the point where I have to dignify the suggestion with thoughtful and reasoned rebuttal. So here goes.

The United States sometimes maintains strategic reserves of things that could be useful in an emergency, like medical supplies set aside for use during a future pandemic. But bitcoin is not practically useful in any way – it is simply a notation on a database and therefore has no real-world usage. While some have argued that a bitcoin reserve could be used to pay down debt or pay for other things if there were a problem with the dollar, as explored in Chapter 2, bitcoin has proven highly ineffective as a payment mechanism and its value has proved both highly volatile and highly correlated to other market movements. In a moment of national emergency, bitcoin’s price is likely to be falling and even if that price were high to start with, if the US government held a large volume of this Ponzi-like asset then any attempt to sell off significant portions of bitcoin holdings would drive the price of bitcoin down and undermine its utility (not to mention that the US government would inevitably be front run by those paying bitcoin miners to let them sell ahead of the United States).

Well done me for managing to keep the literary equivalent of a straight face as I said all that. But really, there’s just no serious justification for creating a bitcoin reserve other than to juice the price for those who already hold it, and to ensure that environmentally destructive bitcoin mining continues for years to come. Maybe there’s also a hope that the strategic reserve will help legitimize crypto in the eyes of the investing public – as we’ve already seen, that’s been a crypto industry goal for a long time. The deep irony, though, is that the Trump administration’s full-throated embrace of crypto may be undermining the industry’s attempts to look less scammy.

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Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 4d

Another not so stable stablecoin. Ethena briefly loses its peg in the crypto market rout in the wake of the Trump China tariffs.

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Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 4d

I get the thinking - some inevitably know more than others, contributing to a public price makes market more efficient - but it's not one that sits well with me.

Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 5d

Onshore, US derivatives markets don't have the same definition of insider trading as shares, which is seen as Bad and Wrong. Regulated derivatives accommodates informed knowledge eg a farmer's experience of crop yields when hedging with futures.
But there's more informed knowledge and there's this.

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Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 5d

This is on Polymarket, currently offshore, but planning to go onshore in the US.

Cas Piancey @cascoinfoundation.org · 5d

Professor of Economics at Harvard saying insider trading in prediction markets is no big deal, don’t even trip.

Jason Furman: The other day a student asked me about the prevalence of insider trading in prediction markets. I now have an answer.

*shows that Polymarket was able to nail down the Nobel Peace Prize winner early*

Bohumilo: This reflects well on prediction markets as a deliberative mechanism. The EMH holds.

Jason Furman: That's what I told the student, that I wasn't actually that bothered by insider trading in these markets because it helped everyone else get information more quickly and reliably which I view as their main benefit.

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Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 5d

Here's their recent growth trajectory; not at presidential election level but note the growth since NFL returned. Weekly sports is the driver, not irregular political events.

Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 5d

June v Oct. Kalshi's valuation goes from $2bn to $5bn, a couple of days after Polymarket is valued at $8bn.

Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 5d

Hello yellow metal road?

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Reposted by Philip Stafford

Scott Rose @rprose.bsky.social · 5d

SoftBank, once best known for having lots of money, is seeking a $5b margin loan (on ARM shares!) to invest in OpenAI

A generational all-in bet on AI infrastructure and we are nearing the finance equivalent of turning over couch cushions to find cash to pay for it
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

SoftBank in Talks for $5 Billion Margin Loan Backed by Arm Stock

SoftBank Group Corp. is in talks to borrow $5 billion from global banks, refilling its coffers at a time Masayoshi Son is accelerating the Japanese investment firm’s bets on artificial intelligence.

www.bloomberg.com

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Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 5d

In a gold rush, sell the shovels.
Also an indicator that despite impressions, London is still a strong hub for fintech.
fortune.com/crypto/2025/...

Exclusive: Coinbase and Mastercard have both held advanced talks to buy stablecoin startup BVNK for around $2 billion | Fortune Crypto

Stablecoins have become a buzzy sector over the past year amid a red-hot IPO from the stablecoin giant Circle and recently passed legislation in Congress.

fortune.com

Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 5d

An unimproveable first par

The DoJ has indicted Letitia James after Trump called for legal action against the NY attorney-general who had brought a case against him.
www.ft.com/content/dc00...

NY attorney-general Letitia James indicted after pressure from Trump

Case comes after president urged Department of Justice to take legal action against top prosecutor

www.ft.com

Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 6d

I think they were equally knowledgeable in both topics

Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 6d

"Great quarter guys!"

Via HSBC

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Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 6d

It is with some regret over career choices that I understand this.

Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 7d

I rarely have to listen to a Badenoch speech all the way through. Developing deepening respect for those who do this professionally.

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Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 7d

Hopefully from some angles it can block out views of the Walkie Talkie
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

City of London approves plans for new Square Mile skyscraper

The new development at 130 Fenchurch Street is due to be completed in 2030.

www.bbc.co.uk

Reposted by Philip Stafford

Duncan Lamont @duncanlamont2.bsky.social · 7d

🫣 Profits are for wimps. Revenues are for losers. Ideas sell, not fundamentals

Over half the Nasdaq market is loss making. About 1-in-8 companies have no revenues

There are a lot more in these camps than in the past

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Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 8d

The old(est) US market meets the new.

NYSE owner ICE is investing up to $2bn in Polymarket, valuing the prediction site at around $8bn.

ir.theice.com/press/news-d...

ICE Announces Strategic Investment in Polymarket

ICE to Become Distributor of Polymarket Data to Institutional Investors Globally Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE:ICE), a leading global provider of technology and data, today announced a strateg...

ir.theice.com

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Philip Stafford @staffordphilip.bsky.social · 8d

The article says Trilogy's Amber Road project has copper, cobalt, gallium and germanium.
On one hand, there's tariffs on Canada and then this. This isn't a normal trade war.

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