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Nathanael 🧦 Roy

@sporkredfox.bsky.social

300 followers 650 following 2.8K posts

Theatre Lover. Nazi Hater. he/him https://t.co/0qEOUGI5vM

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Nathanael 🧦 Roy @sporkredfox.bsky.social · Jan 12

For a lot of people- the worst, most politically damaging thing Biden ever did was have a bad stutter during a debate months before the election. After that, people still supporting him were obviously heinous evil people. No better than Trump supporters.

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Nathanael 🧦 Roy @sporkredfox.bsky.social · 2h

For social science you mean?

Nathanael 🧦 Roy @sporkredfox.bsky.social · 2h

Sure. But together with power you're extracting basically all the information you can from the data for the hypotheses.

Nathanael 🧦 Roy @sporkredfox.bsky.social · 3h

I mean, personally i think power is an underrated additional concept that probably should be specified on alternatives, especially in policy where we care about effect size. But like i do think confidence/p value is meaningful

Nathanael 🧦 Roy @sporkredfox.bsky.social · 3h

The probability you would have gotten data as extreme or more extreme than the data you got given the null hypothesis is true.

Seems... pretty meaningful to me? Like, I actually do think it's more useful as a concept in decision making than my gut or the vast majority of alternatives

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Nathanael 🧦 Roy @sporkredfox.bsky.social · 3h

Yeah, fwiw, I don't have, ah, a high opinion of some academic uses of statistics. (I have some thoughts on marketing use of statistics specifically that i, uhh would rather not put in public forum)

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Nathanael 🧦 Roy @sporkredfox.bsky.social · 3h

I mean no. Like, the p value is well defined as long as you specify hypotheses.

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Nathanael 🧦 Roy @sporkredfox.bsky.social · 3h

Yikes

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Nathanael 🧦 Roy @sporkredfox.bsky.social · 3h

Like survey research? Or like academically? I think that's a pretty broad question. But I did work in marketing research for a number of years and one of our main consultants was a professor so I have some experience

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Nathanael 🧦 Roy @sporkredfox.bsky.social · 3h

Actually, I got my master's at a historically Bayesian institution so I didn't get as much of the weird anti-Bayesian culture

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Nathanael 🧦 Roy @sporkredfox.bsky.social · 3h

Bayes is actually 200 years before the birth of statistics, i would still consider it probabibility, but I would guess more likely there is some theological hatred baked into the frequentist antipathy toward Minister Thomas Bayes

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Nathanael 🧦 Roy @sporkredfox.bsky.social · 3h

As a statistician, I am rather skeptical of the usefulness of linear regression in designing a constitution.

Unrelated, but we are also quite a young field and some pretty prominent early statisticians were....uh... eugenicists.

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Reposted by Nathanael 🧦 Roy

Pwnallthethings @pwnallthethings.bsky.social · 3h

To be more specific, the show Severance was expensive to make, and one of the flagship series for AppleTV.

The latest call of duty cost just shy of *5x* the *entire* cost of its first *season*

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Nathanael 🧦 Roy @sporkredfox.bsky.social · 3h

I mean, a lot of AAA games have more than one seasons worth of content in cutscenes alone. Detroit:Become Human is old now and was MASSIVE

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Nathanael 🧦 Roy @sporkredfox.bsky.social · 3h

If video games saw ad support without the just insane backlash i think it could have stratospheric money pumped in. Just no one has figured out how without the hardest core gamers losing their minds

Reposted by Nathanael 🧦 Roy

BeijingPalmer @beijingpalmer.bsky.social · 4h

AAA video games should cost $100 on launch. this would still be extremely cheap for the amount of time and enjoyment you get out of them! But an audience of whiny babies has kept them literally at the same price for *two decades* despite both general inflation *and* sector-specific costs rising

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Nathanael 🧦 Roy @sporkredfox.bsky.social · 9h

Don't both the current senators from Alaska also hate it? I mean alaska to dc is miserable

Nathanael 🧦 Roy @sporkredfox.bsky.social · 9h

It's the anti-purity test actually

Nathanael 🧦 Roy @sporkredfox.bsky.social · 10h

Calling Trump Rear Admiral Cockburn is kind of a funny insult imo

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Reposted by Nathanael 🧦 Roy

Robert Black @hurricanexyz.bsky.social · 11h

Yes, Rear Admiral George Cockburn was not in fact subject to the Appropriations Clause

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Nathanael 🧦 Roy @sporkredfox.bsky.social · 11h

Wouldn't be the first time, this happened in the early 1800s

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Nathanael 🧦 Roy @sporkredfox.bsky.social · 11h

Fwiw, i completely agree that i wish we had more steven Universe that took its time with the diamonds than movie +future. Actually infuriating that this wasn't the case. Contrast peridot's character arc with the diamonds and i think it's pretty clear the creators didn't want to rush

Nathanael 🧦 Roy @sporkredfox.bsky.social · 11h

*the ending was severely rushed and everything after the wedding suffers a lot for it. The pacing also feels off a lot given the production and release schedule and steven bombs

Nathanael 🧦 Roy @sporkredfox.bsky.social · 11h

Like, you can see Rose as a deeply complicated antagonist and recognize her poor motivation while also seeing some of her flaws leading to good (and in the show one of those goods is steven)

Nathanael 🧦 Roy @sporkredfox.bsky.social · 11h

Steven Universe is a near perfect* show and the rare gem that takes time to build. The movie is great music and well done but suffers greatly from internal vision disagreements. Future is...a hot mess.
I don't agree that Rose shouldn't have rebelled is the lesson though

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Nathanael 🧦 Roy @sporkredfox.bsky.social · 15h

Because realistic enemies to lovers is queer coded. I will not be elaborating