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Sub-Prime Goals

@spgoals7.bsky.social

240 followers 120 following 88 posts

Football fan writing on finance in football/sport. Have worked in banking, venture capital and most recently as a CFO. Substack: substack.com/@spgoals7/posts

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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · Nov 17

📈📉Does football and the #EPL have a growth problem? 🧵
- Broadcasting growth has slumped, “Netflix of football” can transform economics for EPL and fans long term.
- Without a “Netflix of football”, new commercial deal structures will be required.
- Matchday revs, the next driver of growth.

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Reposted by Sub-Prime Goals

makemufcgreatagain.bsky.social @makemufcgreatagain.bsky.social · 1d

The no question about that podcast is excellent…. Particularly the financial episodes @spgoals7.bsky.social … Subprime goals is your man.

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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 5d

A lively pod to fill the void of a week without #MUFC. Ed and I dig into:
💰Actual meaning of potential investor interest
🏟️ Paying for a right to buy a Season Ticket in New Old Trafford
⚽️The academy is all bad…?
✒️Pros and cons of Maguire contract renewal
🏆Latest Champions League win for the Reds

No Question About That @nqatpod.bsky.social · 5d

Rumours swirl, money talks. Ed & Jamie dig into Saudi takeover whispers, Old Trafford financing, ops hires, Maguire’s contract, and United Women’s Champions League. @spgoals7.bsky.social

🎧 buff.ly/Ajwzbr7
📺 buff.ly/tpm99nK

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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 23d

Good spot Zak, thank you! Have changed in the underlying article. Transfer debts of 180,000mn might be a bit trickier to navigate...

Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 24d

INEOS’ cuts means #MUFC can cover near term transfer debts.
£80mn non-transfer receivables increase gives ability to spend on players going forward.
Risks aplenty, Men’s first team needs to improve to realise this planning.
If it doesn’t work it strengthens INEOS’ hand.
Full report: bit.ly/47UEmqy

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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 28d

Initial take on #MUFC finances w/ @nqatpod.bsky.social:
📊Why is rev guidance so high
📈How is profit (EBITDA) growing again next year
🧮United’s financials now fixed?
🤔Implications for Amorim
💰Rev not falling that much, profit growing, Men’s 1st team wage bill cut, where's the rest of the money going?

No Question About That @nqatpod.bsky.social · 28d

New pod: United post record revenue… but scratch the surface and are strong foundations built on sand? Jamie and Ed on the 2025 financials: debt, transfers, sponsorships – and whether Sir Jim’s numbers add up. @spgoals7.bsky.social

🎧 buff.ly/89u1wnV
📺 buff.ly/reJTjU2

Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · 28d

#MUFC 4Q25 results FIRST TAKE: guidance in-line with my expectations, targeting a ‘25/26 Premier league finish of 6/7th, and will be guiding factor in any decision surrounding the first team coach.
Full report: bit.ly/42sY216

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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · Sep 4

Chelsea's heady £300mn from player sales this summer. But they still don’t have a front-of-shirt sponsor and most players they could generate a meaningful profit from are now in their first team squad. #CFC hitting UEFA’s €5mn loss target in 2026/27 feels increasingly tricky.

Report: bit.ly/3JKfpUD

Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · Sep 3

Not sure I would describe it as fascinating 😅 but I’m glad I can help share a little light on it!

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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · Sep 3

Because you haven't had enough of transfer market chat…
· #MUFC: transfer market economics, pot. a decent job?
· Liverpool: did they really ace it?
· Arsenal: a squeeze finally coming if no trophies this season?
· Chelsea: how are they doing it?
· #NUFC: have they just done a Spurs post Bale?

No Question About That @nqatpod.bsky.social · Sep 3

On the latest United, Inc podcast - Ed and Jamie dig into the the finances behind the transfer window. Audio, Youtube, ad-free for backers on Patreon. @spg007.bsky.social

🔊buff.ly/aNG5kBC
📺 buff.ly/keuEZ2n

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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · Sep 3

Appreciate the kind words, Pip. Agree, midfield is going to be an ongoing issue this season but was always going to be tricky to get everything right this summer.

Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · Sep 2

Nottingham Forest continue to challenge the established elite. They’ve dug deep financially, and Elanga’s sales was probably crucial to complying UEFA’s financial regulations. They are showing ambition but continue to tread the financial tightrope for UEFA compliance.
Report: bit.ly/47oiGTy

Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · Sep 2

Arsenal’s £200mn Summer net spend was partly facilitated by allowing expensive players to leave for free and loans. They are as close as ever to UEFA’s 70% Squad Cost target. If trophies elude #AFC this season, Berta’s deal making will be tested so they can go again.
Report: bit.ly/3JKR9BM

Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · Aug 25

#AVFC player sales should enable UEFA financial compliance for '25/26 (losses under €5mn) and register new signings for Europa League.

But a high squad cost ratio (c.87%) still needs work. More big sales likely needed to make up the shortfall.

Full report: bit.ly/45V0Wgh

Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · Aug 22

What better way to start the weekend than with a bit of chat about #MUFC finances... We cover:
- Preview of the last few weeks of the window.
- Sponsorship deals
- New stadium funding methods
- Drag along rights

No Question About That @nqatpod.bsky.social · Aug 21

United, Inc - we cut through the noise on United’s finances. New sponsors, PSR reality, and how a new OT gets paid for. Plus market for sales, squad plan, drag-along rights, and what to watch next quarter. @spg007.bsky.social

🔊 buff.ly/66Y8QPt
📺 buff.ly/zLySvuU

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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · Aug 12

I’m sure myself and @nqatpod.bsky.social will find some time!

Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · Aug 12

A New Old Trafford financing blueprint – unite the Club, Fans and the Community
bit.ly/47bp1BN
I see a world where the Club can fund a stadium and increase the no. of tickets for regular matchgoers, allow them to partially fund and guide stadium development and leverage lucrative Hospitality seats

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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · Aug 10

Thanks, Dan. You’re a better man than me, no way I could concentrate on finance during a run!

Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · Aug 10

Thanks, Nathan!

Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · Aug 10

If you've not already had a little listen, might be one for that Sunday evening walk or Monday morning commute. We cover:
- How did #MUFC fund the Sesko deal?
- Is a move for Baleba possible?
- Are there hidden costs to signing Baleba?

No Question About That @nqatpod.bsky.social · Aug 9

Bonus finance pod breaking down the money behind United's capture of Benjamin Sesko, whether Baleba is possible and what sales might be needed. @spg007.bsky.social

🔊 buff.ly/VBx2hGF
📺 buff.ly/Qr3JRnX

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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · Aug 8

Nkunku and Jackson have got to go, but clubs may just say no
bit.ly/4fwicwA
#CFC have freed up £55mn UCL List A headroom but need another £32.5mn to register new signings. Garnacho means they probably need £50n
Nkunku+Jackson is c.£43mn of that. But thereafter we may see some unhappy players.

Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · Jul 3

Barcelona refinanced some stadium debt at 5.19% interest rate, lower than before. Also said they expect renovated stadium to make €247mn a year

Potentially improving environment for debt, (impo for #MUFC). Quick substack on what this means 👉 bit.ly/4nEx7sn

www.fcbarcelona.com/en/news/4297...

Is debt in football becoming cheaper?

Barcelona's stadium debt refinancing continues a trend of more advantageous rates for football clubs

bit.ly

Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · Jun 26

Might be a nice way to get through your morning or evening commute:
- some context on cash and why sell to buy might now be the order of the day.
- why are transfers taking so long.
- is there upside from a tricky window to navigate.
- other things to keep an eye on.

No Question About That @nqatpod.bsky.social · Jun 25

Latest episode of "United, Inc" with @spg007.bsky.social on United's perilous cash position, why transfers in and out are taking some time, how other moves in the market might impact United, and the importance of the youth market

📺 buff.ly/BffaHXD
🔊 buff.ly/hen9EXq

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Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · Jun 20

#Juve signed a 10 yr extension to their Adidas kit deal - €408mn total or €40.8mn/yr. Prev deal was €51m/yr. Interestingly, no performance based clauses in this deal (like #MUFC and #LFC recent deals).
In effect have sacrificed near term revs for long-term security.
www.espn.co.uk/football/sto...

Juventus sign €408m Adidas deal until 2037

Juventus have extended their partnership with German sportswear giant Adidas until June 2037, in a deal worth €408 million ($468m).

www.espn.co.uk

Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · Jun 19

Chelsea’s talent house and Jim Fraser
Substack: bit.ly/44jIdv3
• Fraser potentially joining #MUFC academy - helped build #CFC academy with Neil Bath
• Specialises in dom and intl scouting & development
• Since '05 CFC academy generated c.£700mn fees
• Forward thinking in evolving academy operations

Sub-Prime Goals @spgoals7.bsky.social · Jun 17

Full Omar Berrada interview in United We Stand is worth and #MUFC fans' time. Read it to make up your own mind on him. Can subscribe here: uwsonline.com/subscribe.php
Interesting stuff on Amorim, financial model & direction from here
Reminder chart on EBITDA (profit) margin and free cash flow below

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