Sergey
@sergeycyw.bsky.social
I talk about growth stock investing and fundamental analysis with a long-term mindset. I provide earnings reviews and key news updates. Not investment advice.
SergeyCYW.substack.com
SergeyCYW.substack.com
Duolingo Still Growing Fast — But Is AI Quietly Changing the Competitive Math?
#DUOL delivered a solid quarter with strong user growth, rising ARR, and best-in-class unit economics, supported by a massive $220B education TAM and a balance sheet with minimal leverage.
#DUOL delivered a solid quarter with strong user growth, rising ARR, and best-in-class unit economics, supported by a massive $220B education TAM and a balance sheet with minimal leverage.
December 18, 2025 at 2:58 PM
Duolingo Still Growing Fast — But Is AI Quietly Changing the Competitive Math?
#DUOL delivered a solid quarter with strong user growth, rising ARR, and best-in-class unit economics, supported by a massive $220B education TAM and a balance sheet with minimal leverage.
#DUOL delivered a solid quarter with strong user growth, rising ARR, and best-in-class unit economics, supported by a massive $220B education TAM and a balance sheet with minimal leverage.
AI, Memory, and a Widening Gap Across Semiconductor Stocks
Year-to-date performance across semiconductor stocks highlights a clear divergence between AI- and memory-exposed names and more mature or handset-linked businesses.
Year-to-date performance across semiconductor stocks highlights a clear divergence between AI- and memory-exposed names and more mature or handset-linked businesses.
December 18, 2025 at 1:02 PM
AI, Memory, and a Widening Gap Across Semiconductor Stocks
Year-to-date performance across semiconductor stocks highlights a clear divergence between AI- and memory-exposed names and more mature or handset-linked businesses.
Year-to-date performance across semiconductor stocks highlights a clear divergence between AI- and memory-exposed names and more mature or handset-linked businesses.
#MU earnings: demand shock meets margin expansion
#Micron delivered a quarter where growth and profitability moved in sync. Revenue reached $13.6B, up 57% YoY, well ahead of expectations. Operating income climbed 182% YoY, pushing operating margin to 45%. Net margin expanded to 38%.
#Micron delivered a quarter where growth and profitability moved in sync. Revenue reached $13.6B, up 57% YoY, well ahead of expectations. Operating income climbed 182% YoY, pushing operating margin to 45%. Net margin expanded to 38%.
December 18, 2025 at 12:27 PM
Is AI the weapon — or the shield? 🧵
The AI cybersecurity market is exploding:
$28.5B (2025) → $136B (2032) | 24.8% CAGR
Enterprises are now spending >15% more on AI-driven security to fight back.
AI is redefining defense — faster, predictive.
The question is: who builds the smarter shield? 👇
The AI cybersecurity market is exploding:
$28.5B (2025) → $136B (2032) | 24.8% CAGR
Enterprises are now spending >15% more on AI-driven security to fight back.
AI is redefining defense — faster, predictive.
The question is: who builds the smarter shield? 👇
December 18, 2025 at 11:57 AM
Is AI the weapon — or the shield? 🧵
The AI cybersecurity market is exploding:
$28.5B (2025) → $136B (2032) | 24.8% CAGR
Enterprises are now spending >15% more on AI-driven security to fight back.
AI is redefining defense — faster, predictive.
The question is: who builds the smarter shield? 👇
The AI cybersecurity market is exploding:
$28.5B (2025) → $136B (2032) | 24.8% CAGR
Enterprises are now spending >15% more on AI-driven security to fight back.
AI is redefining defense — faster, predictive.
The question is: who builds the smarter shield? 👇
AI’s Next Bottleneck: Has the Power Grid Become the New GPU Shortage?
December 17, 2025 at 4:03 PM
AI’s Next Bottleneck: Has the Power Grid Become the New GPU Shortage?
AI Is Rewriting the Rules of Cybersecurity 🧵
AI isn’t just changing how we attack systems — it’s transforming how we defend them.
A new generation of AI-native cybersecurity platforms is scaling faster, automating faster, and reaching profitability faster than any cycle before.
AI isn’t just changing how we attack systems — it’s transforming how we defend them.
A new generation of AI-native cybersecurity platforms is scaling faster, automating faster, and reaching profitability faster than any cycle before.
December 17, 2025 at 2:57 PM
AI Is Rewriting the Rules of Cybersecurity 🧵
AI isn’t just changing how we attack systems — it’s transforming how we defend them.
A new generation of AI-native cybersecurity platforms is scaling faster, automating faster, and reaching profitability faster than any cycle before.
AI isn’t just changing how we attack systems — it’s transforming how we defend them.
A new generation of AI-native cybersecurity platforms is scaling faster, automating faster, and reaching profitability faster than any cycle before.
The Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) Payback Period is a crucial metric for SaaS companies, measuring the time (in months) it takes to recover the cost of acquiring new customers.
December 17, 2025 at 1:26 PM
The Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) Payback Period is a crucial metric for SaaS companies, measuring the time (in months) it takes to recover the cost of acquiring new customers.
AI Cybersecurity Supercycle
The new generation of AI-native cybersecurity platforms is scaling faster and reaching profitability faster than ever.
Platform Consolidation:
#PANW dominates with a unified cloud + network + endpoint platform (30% margin at $10B+ scale).
The new generation of AI-native cybersecurity platforms is scaling faster and reaching profitability faster than ever.
Platform Consolidation:
#PANW dominates with a unified cloud + network + endpoint platform (30% margin at $10B+ scale).
December 17, 2025 at 12:57 PM
AI Cybersecurity Supercycle
The new generation of AI-native cybersecurity platforms is scaling faster and reaching profitability faster than ever.
Platform Consolidation:
#PANW dominates with a unified cloud + network + endpoint platform (30% margin at $10B+ scale).
The new generation of AI-native cybersecurity platforms is scaling faster and reaching profitability faster than ever.
Platform Consolidation:
#PANW dominates with a unified cloud + network + endpoint platform (30% margin at $10B+ scale).
The AI Power Bottleneck: Why Energy Is the Next Constraint in the AI Boom
Margins are tightening as infrastructure spending soars. The growth of AI compute is colliding with the limits of power generation. Can the grid scale fast enough to support trillion-dollar AI ambitions? 🧵👇
Margins are tightening as infrastructure spending soars. The growth of AI compute is colliding with the limits of power generation. Can the grid scale fast enough to support trillion-dollar AI ambitions? 🧵👇
December 16, 2025 at 4:03 PM
The AI Power Bottleneck: Why Energy Is the Next Constraint in the AI Boom
Margins are tightening as infrastructure spending soars. The growth of AI compute is colliding with the limits of power generation. Can the grid scale fast enough to support trillion-dollar AI ambitions? 🧵👇
Margins are tightening as infrastructure spending soars. The growth of AI compute is colliding with the limits of power generation. Can the grid scale fast enough to support trillion-dollar AI ambitions? 🧵👇
Generative AI: From Innovation to Infrastructure 🧵
The generative AI market is scaling into its hypergrowth phase — projected to expand from $22.2B in 2025 to $109.4B by 2030 (37.6% CAGR). What began as a software trend is becoming the backbone of digital transformation.
The generative AI market is scaling into its hypergrowth phase — projected to expand from $22.2B in 2025 to $109.4B by 2030 (37.6% CAGR). What began as a software trend is becoming the backbone of digital transformation.
December 16, 2025 at 1:19 PM
Generative AI: From Innovation to Infrastructure 🧵
The generative AI market is scaling into its hypergrowth phase — projected to expand from $22.2B in 2025 to $109.4B by 2030 (37.6% CAGR). What began as a software trend is becoming the backbone of digital transformation.
The generative AI market is scaling into its hypergrowth phase — projected to expand from $22.2B in 2025 to $109.4B by 2030 (37.6% CAGR). What began as a software trend is becoming the backbone of digital transformation.
Agentic AI represents the fastest-growing AI segment, transitioning from passive assistants to autonomous systems capable of planning, reasoning, and executing complex workflows. 🧵
Market Size: $7.9 billion (2025) → $236 billion (2034) | 45.8% CAGR
Key Public Companies: #PLTR #NOW #PATH 👇
Market Size: $7.9 billion (2025) → $236 billion (2034) | 45.8% CAGR
Key Public Companies: #PLTR #NOW #PATH 👇
December 16, 2025 at 1:02 PM
AI Infrastructure: The new industrial stack powering the trillion-dollar AI build-out
The AI economy isn’t a single industry—it’s a layered system. Each layer feeds the next, from silicon physics to cloud delivery.
The AI economy isn’t a single industry—it’s a layered system. Each layer feeds the next, from silicon physics to cloud delivery.
December 16, 2025 at 12:27 PM
AI Infrastructure: The new industrial stack powering the trillion-dollar AI build-out
The AI economy isn’t a single industry—it’s a layered system. Each layer feeds the next, from silicon physics to cloud delivery.
The AI economy isn’t a single industry—it’s a layered system. Each layer feeds the next, from silicon physics to cloud delivery.
Let's consider the Rule of 40 metric for evaluating SaaS* companies compared to valuation by Forward EV/S multiple.
The Rule of 40 helps investors balance growth and profitability, offering deeper insights into company efficiency, unlike EV/S multiples which reflect only revenue expectations.
The Rule of 40 helps investors balance growth and profitability, offering deeper insights into company efficiency, unlike EV/S multiples which reflect only revenue expectations.
December 15, 2025 at 3:28 PM
Let's consider the Rule of 40 metric for evaluating SaaS* companies compared to valuation by Forward EV/S multiple.
The Rule of 40 helps investors balance growth and profitability, offering deeper insights into company efficiency, unlike EV/S multiples which reflect only revenue expectations.
The Rule of 40 helps investors balance growth and profitability, offering deeper insights into company efficiency, unlike EV/S multiples which reflect only revenue expectations.
Big Data: The Quiet Setup Behind the Next Tech Rotation
Big Data is staring at a $400B–$960B runway with ~14% CAGR into 2030. Data creation keeps compounding. Storage, processing, and analytics have no choice but to follow.
Big Data is staring at a $400B–$960B runway with ~14% CAGR into 2030. Data creation keeps compounding. Storage, processing, and analytics have no choice but to follow.
December 15, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Big Data: The Quiet Setup Behind the Next Tech Rotation
Big Data is staring at a $400B–$960B runway with ~14% CAGR into 2030. Data creation keeps compounding. Storage, processing, and analytics have no choice but to follow.
Big Data is staring at a $400B–$960B runway with ~14% CAGR into 2030. Data creation keeps compounding. Storage, processing, and analytics have no choice but to follow.
Let’s look at SaaS valuations:
1. EV/Sales relative to forward growth.
EV/Sales alone means nothing. A high multiple isn’t expensive if growth is strong, and a low multiple isn’t cheap if growth is collapsing. The metric only becomes useful when paired with NTM revenue expectations.
1. EV/Sales relative to forward growth.
EV/Sales alone means nothing. A high multiple isn’t expensive if growth is strong, and a low multiple isn’t cheap if growth is collapsing. The metric only becomes useful when paired with NTM revenue expectations.
December 15, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Let’s look at SaaS valuations:
1. EV/Sales relative to forward growth.
EV/Sales alone means nothing. A high multiple isn’t expensive if growth is strong, and a low multiple isn’t cheap if growth is collapsing. The metric only becomes useful when paired with NTM revenue expectations.
1. EV/Sales relative to forward growth.
EV/Sales alone means nothing. A high multiple isn’t expensive if growth is strong, and a low multiple isn’t cheap if growth is collapsing. The metric only becomes useful when paired with NTM revenue expectations.
The AI Infrastructure Stack — The real trillion-dollar AI economy nobody’s talking about. 🧵
Every AI model sits on top of a supply chain of chips, data centers, and power.
This is the industrial backbone of intelligence — built by public companies you already know.
Every AI model sits on top of a supply chain of chips, data centers, and power.
This is the industrial backbone of intelligence — built by public companies you already know.
December 15, 2025 at 12:04 PM
The AI Infrastructure Stack — The real trillion-dollar AI economy nobody’s talking about. 🧵
Every AI model sits on top of a supply chain of chips, data centers, and power.
This is the industrial backbone of intelligence — built by public companies you already know.
Every AI model sits on top of a supply chain of chips, data centers, and power.
This is the industrial backbone of intelligence — built by public companies you already know.
The Price/Sales/Growth (PSG) metric is a valuable valuation tool used to evaluate software companies, offering a detailed perspective that goes beyond traditional price-to-sales (P/S) ratios by incorporating the growth aspect of the business.
December 14, 2025 at 2:58 PM
The Price/Sales/Growth (PSG) metric is a valuable valuation tool used to evaluate software companies, offering a detailed perspective that goes beyond traditional price-to-sales (P/S) ratios by incorporating the growth aspect of the business.
The Rule of 40 is a pivotal financial metric used to evaluate the performance of SaaS and other growth-oriented software companies. It serves as a benchmark that balances revenue growth and profitability, providing a comprehensive snapshot of a company's overall financial health.
December 14, 2025 at 1:00 PM
The Rule of 40 is a pivotal financial metric used to evaluate the performance of SaaS and other growth-oriented software companies. It serves as a benchmark that balances revenue growth and profitability, providing a comprehensive snapshot of a company's overall financial health.
Let's examine SaaS companies* valuations by analyzing the Forward EV/Gross Profit (GAAP) multiple relative to their projected NTM revenue growth.
December 13, 2025 at 1:57 PM
Let's examine SaaS companies* valuations by analyzing the Forward EV/Gross Profit (GAAP) multiple relative to their projected NTM revenue growth.
SaaS companies* are typically evaluated based on the Forward EV/Sales multiple relative to their projected NTM revenue growth.
December 13, 2025 at 11:56 AM
SaaS companies* are typically evaluated based on the Forward EV/Sales multiple relative to their projected NTM revenue growth.
Neo Cloud is moving from narrative to balance sheets 🧵
GPU-focused infrastructure is now the fastest-scaling segment of the AI economy. Training + inference demand flipped capacity into revenue almost instantly
$NBIS $CRWV $WULF $APLD $CIFR $IREN and $WYFI
GPU-focused infrastructure is now the fastest-scaling segment of the AI economy. Training + inference demand flipped capacity into revenue almost instantly
$NBIS $CRWV $WULF $APLD $CIFR $IREN and $WYFI
December 12, 2025 at 4:04 PM
Neo Cloud is moving from narrative to balance sheets 🧵
GPU-focused infrastructure is now the fastest-scaling segment of the AI economy. Training + inference demand flipped capacity into revenue almost instantly
$NBIS $CRWV $WULF $APLD $CIFR $IREN and $WYFI
GPU-focused infrastructure is now the fastest-scaling segment of the AI economy. Training + inference demand flipped capacity into revenue almost instantly
$NBIS $CRWV $WULF $APLD $CIFR $IREN and $WYFI
WhiteFiber revenue up 64% YoY, but stock sits 52% below all-time highs
#WYFI has lost more than half its value from the peak, even as the business scales rapidly into the Neo Cloud race. Q3 2025 revenue grew 64% year over year to $20.2 million.
#WYFI has lost more than half its value from the peak, even as the business scales rapidly into the Neo Cloud race. Q3 2025 revenue grew 64% year over year to $20.2 million.
December 12, 2025 at 3:31 PM
WhiteFiber revenue up 64% YoY, but stock sits 52% below all-time highs
#WYFI has lost more than half its value from the peak, even as the business scales rapidly into the Neo Cloud race. Q3 2025 revenue grew 64% year over year to $20.2 million.
#WYFI has lost more than half its value from the peak, even as the business scales rapidly into the Neo Cloud race. Q3 2025 revenue grew 64% year over year to $20.2 million.
