Pierre Fermigier
@scriptio.bsky.social
Politics, History, MENA & International Relations | Ex HRVP Cabinet, EEAS, SGDSN, Quai d'Orsay & Assemblée nationale | RT≠endorsement
Pinned
The Chinese Yoke: Russia’s Return to Vassalship
In the 13th century, Muscovy, the medieval antecedent to modern Russia, was a small outpost on the periphery of Kyivan Rus. It would not emerge as a
warontherocks.com
“Russia’s structural subordination will enter its consolidation phase following the war in Ukraine. Its political-economic weakness, isolation, and the regime’s survival prioritized over geopolitical independence will become further catalysts for dependence.”
“Ukraine has limited ability to strike Russian troop concentrations far behind the line of contact due to a lack of suitable long-range munitions, including decreasing numbers of U.S.-provided HIMARS-launched rockets, said a European security official.”
Can Ukraine Kill Its Way to Victory?
Increased losses could strain Russia’s military, but Ukraine faces steep hurdles.
link.foreignpolicy.com
February 15, 2026 at 12:45 PM
“Ukraine has limited ability to strike Russian troop concentrations far behind the line of contact due to a lack of suitable long-range munitions, including decreasing numbers of U.S.-provided HIMARS-launched rockets, said a European security official.”
“The lesson is not that drones are unimportant. It is that their prominence may tell us more about failure than transformation. What appears revolutionary may, on closer inspection, be diagnostic.“
Is the Age of Drones Really the Age of Poor Maneuver?
On today’s battlefields, drones are undeniably lethal. They kill with precision, shape movement across the battlespace, and impose a constant
warontherocks.com
February 15, 2026 at 7:35 AM
“The lesson is not that drones are unimportant. It is that their prominence may tell us more about failure than transformation. What appears revolutionary may, on closer inspection, be diagnostic.“
“Europe is back where it was in the early 1950s, facing a predatory Russia while the United States rushes for the exits. Europe must now assume that it has to defend itself without American support.”
Europe Needs an Army
Only collective defense can protect the continent.
link.foreignaffairs.com
February 15, 2026 at 7:19 AM
“Europe is back where it was in the early 1950s, facing a predatory Russia while the United States rushes for the exits. Europe must now assume that it has to defend itself without American support.”
«Une telle réorganisation, qui reste à préciser dans un autre document de positionnement des forces à l’étranger non encore publié, constituerait la transformation la plus radicale dans l’organisation militaire des États-Unis depuis des décennies.»
L’impérialisme ? Du « réalisme », selon la nouvelle stratégie de défense des États-Unis
Publiée un mois après la stratégie nationale de sécurité, la stratégie de défense du Pentagone confirme une vision du monde dans laquelle les alliés des États-Unis sont davantage maltraités que leurs…
www.mediapart.fr
February 8, 2026 at 10:01 PM
«Une telle réorganisation, qui reste à préciser dans un autre document de positionnement des forces à l’étranger non encore publié, constituerait la transformation la plus radicale dans l’organisation militaire des États-Unis depuis des décennies.»
“Russia’s structural subordination will enter its consolidation phase following the war in Ukraine. Its political-economic weakness, isolation, and the regime’s survival prioritized over geopolitical independence will become further catalysts for dependence.”
The Chinese Yoke: Russia’s Return to Vassalship
In the 13th century, Muscovy, the medieval antecedent to modern Russia, was a small outpost on the periphery of Kyivan Rus. It would not emerge as a
warontherocks.com
February 8, 2026 at 8:25 PM
“Russia’s structural subordination will enter its consolidation phase following the war in Ukraine. Its political-economic weakness, isolation, and the regime’s survival prioritized over geopolitical independence will become further catalysts for dependence.”
“Once you deny that critical reason has any independent force, it is very easy to insist that power alone gets to decide who believes what.”
Thomas Mann and the Temptations of Fascism
The resurgence of right-wing populism has set the table for the far right’s renewed fortunes. Published in 1947, Thomas Mann’s Doctor Faustus offers a guide to the mythmaking and rejection of reason t...
jacobin.com
February 8, 2026 at 7:49 PM
“Once you deny that critical reason has any independent force, it is very easy to insist that power alone gets to decide who believes what.”
“The solution is for the country to accept what the historian Timothy Garton Ash, writing in these pages three decades ago, called “golden handcuffs”: restrictions on its sovereignty through greater integration with its European neighbors.”
Europe’s Next Hegemon
The perils of German power.
link.foreignaffairs.com
February 7, 2026 at 6:28 PM
“The solution is for the country to accept what the historian Timothy Garton Ash, writing in these pages three decades ago, called “golden handcuffs”: restrictions on its sovereignty through greater integration with its European neighbors.”
“Trying to preserve NATO’s old formula of U.S. dominance and European submission is an increasingly bad bet.”
NATO’s Leader Is Totally Lost
What does Mark Rutte think he’s doing?
link.foreignpolicy.com
February 7, 2026 at 6:27 PM
“Trying to preserve NATO’s old formula of U.S. dominance and European submission is an increasingly bad bet.”
“Enhancing the military’s effectiveness entails higher spending on training, firing ranges, and ammunition, choices that yield little visible impact on salient domestic issues such as employment, internal security, and economic development.”
NATO Is Thinking About Defense Spending Wrong
Prioritizing GDP-based targets doesn’t necessarily strengthen military capabilities, as Italy shows.
link.foreignpolicy.com
February 7, 2026 at 6:26 PM
“Enhancing the military’s effectiveness entails higher spending on training, firing ranges, and ammunition, choices that yield little visible impact on salient domestic issues such as employment, internal security, and economic development.”
“Wealthy #Gulf Arab states—many of whose leaders hold sway with Trump—mostly despise the Islamic Republic of #Iran, but may prefer the status quo to the instability and uncertainty of a messy military intervention that spills chaos into the region and possible blowback on them.”
Trump endgame unclear as U.S. and Iran head to talks in Oman
As envoys from the United States and Iran prepare to meet Friday in Oman, both President Trump and the Iranians face a dilemma.
substack.com
February 7, 2026 at 6:20 PM
“If it continues to define American strategy in the coming years, predatory hegemony will weaken the 🇺🇸 and its allies alike, generate growing global resentment, create tempting opportunities for Washington’s main rivals, and leave Americans less secure, less prosperous, and less influential.”
The Predatory Hegemon
Ever since Donald Trump first became U.S. president, in 2017, commentators have searched for an adequate label to describe his approach to U.S. foreign relations. Writing in these pages, the political...
link.foreignaffairs.com
February 7, 2026 at 6:18 PM
“If it continues to define American strategy in the coming years, predatory hegemony will weaken the 🇺🇸 and its allies alike, generate growing global resentment, create tempting opportunities for Washington’s main rivals, and leave Americans less secure, less prosperous, and less influential.”
“The bottom line is that as long as the world is divided into independent states with vastly different capabilities, spheres of influence will be both an unavoidable feature of the international landscape and an unreliable method for promoting peace.”
What Spheres of Influence Are—and Aren’t
One of the most misunderstood concepts of international politics is back with a force.
link.foreignpolicy.com
February 7, 2026 at 6:15 PM
“The bottom line is that as long as the world is divided into independent states with vastly different capabilities, spheres of influence will be both an unavoidable feature of the international landscape and an unreliable method for promoting peace.”
«Le rôle de ces influenceurs et influenceuses est emblématique de cette fusion du politique et du médiatique dans le trumpisme, qui est autant un pouvoir narratif qu’un mouvement politique.»
Comment Trump et son camp fabriquent une infrastructure médiatique de propagande
Aux États-Unis, l’espace informationnel de 2026 n’a plus rien à voir avec celui de 2016 ni même de 2020. L’administration Trump a construit ses propres canaux de communication vers le public, attaque…
www.mediapart.fr
January 25, 2026 at 10:35 AM
«Le rôle de ces influenceurs et influenceuses est emblématique de cette fusion du politique et du médiatique dans le trumpisme, qui est autant un pouvoir narratif qu’un mouvement politique.»
“Neoliberal #populism: market-oriented governance combined with selective, politically resonant social spending. The ‘populism’ is in the claim to represent ‘the people’; the ‘neoliberal’ element is that social policy often remains targeted and conditional rather than universal.”
The Resilience of Populism: Why Erdoğan Endured and Bolsonaro Fell - Middle East Centre
Right-wing populist leaders have risen across regions, but they do not all survive in office. Using Türkiye as the anchor case, a brief comparison with Brazil helps explain why some populists become d...
blogs.lse.ac.uk
January 16, 2026 at 9:45 PM
“Neoliberal #populism: market-oriented governance combined with selective, politically resonant social spending. The ‘populism’ is in the claim to represent ‘the people’; the ‘neoliberal’ element is that social policy often remains targeted and conditional rather than universal.”
“The good news is that Europeans have leverage. In Trump’s language, they have cards. Time is the major factor. Trump wants to move soon. […] By acting fast, European leaders can outflank the administration.” #Greenland
Arctic hold‘em: Ten European cards in Greenland – European Council on Foreign Relations
Europeans have real leverage in the face of Donald Trump’s threats towards Greenland—and time on their side. They must use it to raise the prospective costs of
ecfr.eu
January 16, 2026 at 9:43 PM
“The good news is that Europeans have leverage. In Trump’s language, they have cards. Time is the major factor. Trump wants to move soon. […] By acting fast, European leaders can outflank the administration.” #Greenland
“The 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, passed in December 2025, authorized the little-known Development Finance Corporation to invest up to $205 billion of public dollars to support projects aligned with U.S. foreign-policy and national security interests.”
America's War Chest in Waiting
Washington's new tool of statecraft is a $200 billion checkbook.
link.foreignpolicy.com
January 16, 2026 at 9:40 PM
“The 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, passed in December 2025, authorized the little-known Development Finance Corporation to invest up to $205 billion of public dollars to support projects aligned with U.S. foreign-policy and national security interests.”
“Recognizing a changed dynamic could also reinforce Putin’s desire to continue the war rather than end it on Trump’s terms, however favorable they may be to #Russia.”
Why Putin Still Prefers War
Russia's growing resolve to fight on in Ukraine.
link.foreignaffairs.com
January 14, 2026 at 1:02 PM
“Recognizing a changed dynamic could also reinforce Putin’s desire to continue the war rather than end it on Trump’s terms, however favorable they may be to #Russia.”
“Russia’s industrial capacity expansions reveal a strategy designed to make pressure on Europe cheap and keep sustained confrontation operationally feasible.”
Russia’s Military Procurement Is a Warning for Europe
Putin’s order books reveal plans for conflict well beyond Ukraine
foreignpolicy.com
January 14, 2026 at 8:11 AM
“Russia’s industrial capacity expansions reveal a strategy designed to make pressure on Europe cheap and keep sustained confrontation operationally feasible.”
“What we are seeing is, in fact, the manifestation of a balancing coalition against not just the UAE but against Israel and its increasingly reckless attacks across the region”.
The Saudi-UAE Throwdown
Relations between Saudi Arabia and the UAE have over the last week erupted into an incredibly nasty and heated conflict eerily reminiscent of their joint 2017 campaign against Qatar. The most immediat...
abuaardvarkghost.ghost.io
January 11, 2026 at 6:08 PM
“What we are seeing is, in fact, the manifestation of a balancing coalition against not just the UAE but against Israel and its increasingly reckless attacks across the region”.
”Zelenskyy did not intend to appoint Budanov as head of his office. And for a month, he did not do so. Budanov’s proposals—packaged as a set of twelve points—failed to impress him. All this time, they lay idle on the president’s desk, just like the initiatives put forward by Mykhailo Fedorov.”
Successor or Neutralization? Why the President Chose Budanov to Lead Presidential Office
Zelensky appointed Kirill Budanov as head of the Presidential Administration. Why this is more than just a personnel decision, and what it says about plans for a second term.
zn.ua
January 11, 2026 at 6:01 PM
”Zelenskyy did not intend to appoint Budanov as head of his office. And for a month, he did not do so. Budanov’s proposals—packaged as a set of twelve points—failed to impress him. All this time, they lay idle on the president’s desk, just like the initiatives put forward by Mykhailo Fedorov.”
“European officials made a dangerous bet, effectively waiting for a crisis to force themselves to fix widely acknowledged problems. Now, they risk doing something worse: wasting a crisis by failing to act as it unfolds.”
Europe Is Missing Its Moment
It’s time to finally reform—or risk irrelevance.
link.foreignaffairs.com
January 11, 2026 at 5:35 PM
“European officials made a dangerous bet, effectively waiting for a crisis to force themselves to fix widely acknowledged problems. Now, they risk doing something worse: wasting a crisis by failing to act as it unfolds.”
“The June war accelerated these trends. In the six months following it, the rial lost over 40% of its value and inflation surged by as much as 60%. With many assuming that the hobbling of Iran’s nuclear program had reduced its leverage to negotiate sanctions relief, capital flight soon followed.”
Why This Time Is Different for Iran
Vali Nasr points out that the Islamic Republic is facing a perfect storm of external and internal threats to its survival.
prosyn.org
January 11, 2026 at 5:19 PM
“The June war accelerated these trends. In the six months following it, the rial lost over 40% of its value and inflation surged by as much as 60%. With many assuming that the hobbling of Iran’s nuclear program had reduced its leverage to negotiate sanctions relief, capital flight soon followed.”
“And while Pahlavi did not outwardly endorse the attacks, he was perhaps the most prominent Iranian arguing they were paving the way for democracy. He made that case, repeatedly, on American television, international television and to various political leaders.”
The Son of the Last Shah Wants to Be the Next Leader of Iran
Reza Pahlavi has a famous name but whether he has enough support inside the country to rise to power is unclear.
www.politico.com
January 11, 2026 at 5:03 PM
“And while Pahlavi did not outwardly endorse the attacks, he was perhaps the most prominent Iranian arguing they were paving the way for democracy. He made that case, repeatedly, on American television, international television and to various political leaders.”
“Nuclear discourse in #Canada has accelerated already, thanks largely to Trump’s rhetoric. Watching Trump suddenly encircle Canada would effectively guarantee a #nuclear arms program in Canada itself—with all of the threats, uncertainty, and destabilizing factors attendant.“
Annexing Greenland Would Be a Strategic Catastrophe
Any attempt by the United States to claim the island would quickly spiral out of control.
link.foreignpolicy.com
January 10, 2026 at 8:54 AM
“By ditching the anti-Armenian rhetoric, Aliyev could end up undermining his own legitimacy while the county is struggling with stagnating living standards, economic problems, closed borders, corruption, and growing repression.” #Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan’s “Neither War Nor Peace” Strategy Is Limiting Rapprochement With Armenia
While signaling internationally that it wants peace, the Azerbaijani regime continues to promote anti-Armenian sentiment at home to mobilize domestic support.
carnegieendowment.org
January 9, 2026 at 6:31 PM
“By ditching the anti-Armenian rhetoric, Aliyev could end up undermining his own legitimacy while the county is struggling with stagnating living standards, economic problems, closed borders, corruption, and growing repression.” #Azerbaijan