Robert Ward
@robertalanward.bsky.social
Director of Geo-economics, Japan Chair ジャパン・チェア・プログラム Senior Fellow for Japanese Security Studies at The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), London
LinkedIn: https://uk.linkedin.com/in/robert-ward-44286611
LinkedIn: https://uk.linkedin.com/in/robert-ward-44286611
This morning’s walk - a Cotswolds hare enjoying the early sun.
August 6, 2025 at 8:49 AM
This morning’s walk - a Cotswolds hare enjoying the early sun.
RIP the great, great Alfred Brendel. There are so many wonderful recordings by him to choose from—the Schubert piano sonatas, the Beethoven piano sonatas and more. But this recording of the Brahms piano concerto no.1 is hard to beat. Recorded in 1979, it’s still glorious. Musical titan, indeed.
June 18, 2025 at 7:03 AM
RIP the great, great Alfred Brendel. There are so many wonderful recordings by him to choose from—the Schubert piano sonatas, the Beethoven piano sonatas and more. But this recording of the Brahms piano concerto no.1 is hard to beat. Recorded in 1979, it’s still glorious. Musical titan, indeed.
The Lee-Ishiba call ticked the boxes it needed to to keep ROK-Japan relations on an even keel. Ishiba’s was the second call made by Lee to a foreign leader (after that to Trump) after taking office. Cf prev ‘progressive’ Moon, where Japan was behind China.
english.kyodonews.net/news/2025/06...
english.kyodonews.net/news/2025/06...
Japan, South Korea leaders agree to build stable ties in 1st phone talks
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and new South Korean President Lee Jae Myung agree to build stable bilateral ties amid a severe strategic environment, with both expressing hope to meet in perso...
english.kyodonews.net
June 9, 2025 at 11:14 PM
The Lee-Ishiba call ticked the boxes it needed to to keep ROK-Japan relations on an even keel. Ishiba’s was the second call made by Lee to a foreign leader (after that to Trump) after taking office. Cf prev ‘progressive’ Moon, where Japan was behind China.
english.kyodonews.net/news/2025/06...
english.kyodonews.net/news/2025/06...
Sunset this evening in Tokyo with Mt Fuji silhouetted in the distance. Yesterday’s rain has cleared the air. Just stunning.
#sunset #富士山 #mountfuji #japan
#sunset #富士山 #mountfuji #japan
June 5, 2025 at 1:55 PM
Sunset this evening in Tokyo with Mt Fuji silhouetted in the distance. Yesterday’s rain has cleared the air. Just stunning.
#sunset #富士山 #mountfuji #japan
#sunset #富士山 #mountfuji #japan
Japan’s new demographic stats are a shocker. Speed of recent decline in Japan’s births is clear in this Nikkei chart—dip below 1.1m in 2005, below 1m in 2016, below 900,000 in 2019, below 800,000 in 2022 and below 700,000 in 2024. All this 15 yrs ahead of govt’s expectation. Nikkei chart.
June 4, 2025 at 11:29 PM
Japan’s new demographic stats are a shocker. Speed of recent decline in Japan’s births is clear in this Nikkei chart—dip below 1.1m in 2005, below 1m in 2016, below 900,000 in 2019, below 800,000 in 2022 and below 700,000 in 2024. All this 15 yrs ahead of govt’s expectation. Nikkei chart.
Nikkei map showing Kamandag military exercise (shaded blue circle). Spread of countries represented is striking—US, Philippines, Japan, ROK, UK. Map also refers to strategic alignment between China, Russia and DPRK and China’s own maritime advances.
May 27, 2025 at 7:35 AM
Nikkei map showing Kamandag military exercise (shaded blue circle). Spread of countries represented is striking—US, Philippines, Japan, ROK, UK. Map also refers to strategic alignment between China, Russia and DPRK and China’s own maritime advances.
US sld have studied Japan’s response to China’s curbs on rare earth exports to 🇯🇵 as bilateral geopol tensions rose. An early example of 🇨🇳’s weaponisation of trade interdependence. 🇯🇵 changed policy in response, building stockpiles etc. Here, US looks underprepared for geoecon struggle w 🇨🇳. FT pic.
May 22, 2025 at 9:19 AM
US sld have studied Japan’s response to China’s curbs on rare earth exports to 🇯🇵 as bilateral geopol tensions rose. An early example of 🇨🇳’s weaponisation of trade interdependence. 🇯🇵 changed policy in response, building stockpiles etc. Here, US looks underprepared for geoecon struggle w 🇨🇳. FT pic.
Asahi chart showing top 10 foreign holders of US Treasuries. With USD1.3trn, Japan tops the league, well ahead of no.2 UK and no.3 China.
But this is not really a leverage tool for Tokyo in negotiations. PM Hashimoto issued veiled threat in 90s, but rowed back. 🇯🇵 🇺🇸 security rels too important.
But this is not really a leverage tool for Tokyo in negotiations. PM Hashimoto issued veiled threat in 90s, but rowed back. 🇯🇵 🇺🇸 security rels too important.
May 21, 2025 at 7:36 AM
Asahi chart showing top 10 foreign holders of US Treasuries. With USD1.3trn, Japan tops the league, well ahead of no.2 UK and no.3 China.
But this is not really a leverage tool for Tokyo in negotiations. PM Hashimoto issued veiled threat in 90s, but rowed back. 🇯🇵 🇺🇸 security rels too important.
But this is not really a leverage tool for Tokyo in negotiations. PM Hashimoto issued veiled threat in 90s, but rowed back. 🇯🇵 🇺🇸 security rels too important.
A beautiful light on yesterday’s walk first thing, despite the cloud.
#Cotswolds #landscape #countryside
#Cotswolds #landscape #countryside
May 19, 2025 at 7:54 AM
A beautiful light on yesterday’s walk first thing, despite the cloud.
#Cotswolds #landscape #countryside
#Cotswolds #landscape #countryside
PM Ishiba exaggerates somewhat. Yes, Japan’s public debt stock is higher %GDP than Greece’s, but the economies are quite different structurally, Japan has its own currency/owns most of its debt etc.
Ishiba rebuffs tax cut demands with Greek debt comparison www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/05...
Ishiba rebuffs tax cut demands with Greek debt comparison www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/05...
Ishiba rebuffs tax cut demands with Greek debt comparison
The premier said he disagrees with the idea of funding tax cuts with Japanese government bonds, signaling caution over additional government spending.
www.japantimes.co.jp
May 19, 2025 at 7:37 AM
PM Ishiba exaggerates somewhat. Yes, Japan’s public debt stock is higher %GDP than Greece’s, but the economies are quite different structurally, Japan has its own currency/owns most of its debt etc.
Ishiba rebuffs tax cut demands with Greek debt comparison www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/05...
Ishiba rebuffs tax cut demands with Greek debt comparison www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/05...
2025 was to have been a banner year for Japan-ROK ties, marks 60 yrs since diplo relations started. This hiccup highlights lingering bilateral challenges, compounded by political uncertainties on both sides.
www.stripes.com/theaters/asi...
www.stripes.com/theaters/asi...
South Korea denies report of first-ever joint drill with Japanese troops in Philippines
South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense denied a report that its marines will participate in joint drills with Japanese forces.
www.stripes.com
May 15, 2025 at 4:48 AM
2025 was to have been a banner year for Japan-ROK ties, marks 60 yrs since diplo relations started. This hiccup highlights lingering bilateral challenges, compounded by political uncertainties on both sides.
www.stripes.com/theaters/asi...
www.stripes.com/theaters/asi...
Global current-account (im)balances—‘Donald Trump’s presidency is in part a symptom of this reality’. From excellent Wolf piece in FT on excess global savings.
May 14, 2025 at 4:50 AM
Global current-account (im)balances—‘Donald Trump’s presidency is in part a symptom of this reality’. From excellent Wolf piece in FT on excess global savings.
Very pleased to announce that my new IISS Adelphi book on Japan is nearly with us. The tome considers whether 🇯🇵’s new grand strategy, defence reforms etc are up to the strategic task that 🇯🇵 has set itself against the background of increasing tensions around Taiwan in particular. On Amazon etc.
May 7, 2025 at 7:46 AM
Very pleased to announce that my new IISS Adelphi book on Japan is nearly with us. The tome considers whether 🇯🇵’s new grand strategy, defence reforms etc are up to the strategic task that 🇯🇵 has set itself against the background of increasing tensions around Taiwan in particular. On Amazon etc.
A reminder of China’s live-fire exercises around Taiwan. Map from this week’s Economist piece on the exercises foreshadowing a Chinese blockade of the island.
May 2, 2025 at 7:36 AM
A reminder of China’s live-fire exercises around Taiwan. Map from this week’s Economist piece on the exercises foreshadowing a Chinese blockade of the island.
This morning’s walk - some unexpected companions. #Cotswolds
April 30, 2025 at 12:08 PM
This morning’s walk - some unexpected companions. #Cotswolds
…more of today’s wonderful bluebells.
April 27, 2025 at 10:17 AM
…more of today’s wonderful bluebells.
This morning’s walk. A carpet of English bluebells—there are few things finer.
#Cotswolds #bluebells
#Cotswolds #bluebells
April 27, 2025 at 10:13 AM
This morning’s walk. A carpet of English bluebells—there are few things finer.
#Cotswolds #bluebells
#Cotswolds #bluebells
April 25, 2025 at 11:08 AM
Apple’s shift of for-US iPhone assembly to India from China highlights how quickly some production can move (here, by end-2026) and how US economic policy will force further supply-chain fragmentation—for-China production/for RoW prod already in train—as MNCs build resilience. FT paras.
April 25, 2025 at 11:04 AM
Apple’s shift of for-US iPhone assembly to India from China highlights how quickly some production can move (here, by end-2026) and how US economic policy will force further supply-chain fragmentation—for-China production/for RoW prod already in train—as MNCs build resilience. FT paras.
Reposted by Robert Ward
Chinese biz mag Caijing the first to report Chinese tariff exemptions for certain chip imports, then more from Bloomberg and Reuters
China blinked too - but not publicly. And the most interesting line: "The Caijing report was deleted from its website and official WeChat channel by noon Friday"
China blinked too - but not publicly. And the most interesting line: "The Caijing report was deleted from its website and official WeChat channel by noon Friday"
April 25, 2025 at 5:36 AM
Chinese biz mag Caijing the first to report Chinese tariff exemptions for certain chip imports, then more from Bloomberg and Reuters
China blinked too - but not publicly. And the most interesting line: "The Caijing report was deleted from its website and official WeChat channel by noon Friday"
China blinked too - but not publicly. And the most interesting line: "The Caijing report was deleted from its website and official WeChat channel by noon Friday"
April 24, 2025 at 7:55 AM
Some rare good news… Excellent to see concrete things happening as UK-Japan strategic economic relations tighten. All the more so given fragmentation of cross-border data flows. This will be good for R&D and more in this critical area.
asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tec....
asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tec....
Japan, UK to ease personal data transfers to foster medical research
Tokyo will work to match privacy protections with global leader Britain
asia.nikkei.com
April 24, 2025 at 7:53 AM
Some rare good news… Excellent to see concrete things happening as UK-Japan strategic economic relations tighten. All the more so given fragmentation of cross-border data flows. This will be good for R&D and more in this critical area.
asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tec....
asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tec....
Sir András Schiff after a sensational 90 minutes or so of Bach’s Art of Fugue last night at La Salle Pierre Boulez at the Philharmonie de Paris. Stunning.
April 23, 2025 at 9:47 AM
Sir András Schiff after a sensational 90 minutes or so of Bach’s Art of Fugue last night at La Salle Pierre Boulez at the Philharmonie de Paris. Stunning.