Richard Greenfield
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richlightshed.bsky.social
Richard Greenfield
@richlightshed.bsky.social
200 followers 110 following 110 posts
Partner & TMT Analyst LightShed Partners, GP LightShed Ventures, Media Futurist & Co-Host: The LightShed Podcast. Sites/Social: https://linktr.ee/richlightshed
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Richard Greenfield @richlightshed.bsky.social · 18h
“Mamdani is echoing age old antisemitism, with claiming Jews across the world are the root cause of our problems here… his false claims of genocide, his reluctance to label Hamas a terrorist organization, his unwillingness to condemn…

Rabbi Angela Buchdahl of NYC Central Synagogue #votecuomo
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Richard Greenfield @richlightshed.bsky.social · 3d
Comcast Spills the Tea on Merging Minions, Harry Potter, DC and Wicked Into an Epic Universe

We are increasingly confident that Comcast will propose a combination of NBCUniversal and Warner Bros...
$CMCSA $WBD $PSKY
Comcast Spills the Tea on Merging Minions, Harry Potter, DC and Wicked Into an Epic Universe
Listen (4:22 mins) We are increasingly confident that Comcast will propose a combination of NBCUniversal and Warner Bros. in the weeks ahead, focused on the structure we laid out yesterday (Can Bri…
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Richard Greenfield @richlightshed.bsky.social · 4d
Can Brian Roberts Build a Warner Bros-NBCUniversal Rival to Mickey Mouse?
$CMCSA $WBD $PSKY
Can Brian Roberts Build a Warner Bros-NBCUniversal Rival to Mickey Mouse?
Listen (7:51 mins) Twenty-one years ago, Comcast CEO Brian Roberts led a failed hostile takeover of Disney. Five years later, in 2009, Comcast acquired a 51% stake in NBCUniversal and grew that sta…
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Richard Greenfield @richlightshed.bsky.social · 6d
How Comcast Could Win Trump’s Heart and Merge NBCUniversal with Warner Bros. Discovery
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How Comcast Could Win Trump’s Heart and Merge NBCUniversal with Warner Bros. Discovery
Listen (10:49) Comcast shares are down 21% YTD, 30% over the past year, and effectively flat over the past decade. Worse yet, the stock’s conglomerate structure has it trading at a discount to both…
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Richard Greenfield @richlightshed.bsky.social · 9d
⚡️ Paramount Cleaning Up Bakish’s Mistakes, Plus Skydance 1H 2025 Financials ⚡️ $PSKY

Feels like Paramount is likely getting an asset off their books that is losing money and that they probably should not have owned in the first place…
Paramount Cleaning Up Bakish’s Mistakes, Plus Skydance 1H…
Paramount Cleaning Up Bakish’s Mistakes, Plus Skydance 1H 2025 Financials While we have written extensively about the aggressive content investments David Ellison has made since taking the re…
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Richard Greenfield @richlightshed.bsky.social · 9d
⚡️ Is Snap Finally Breaking out Snap Labs’ Financials (Losses)? ⚡️

Yesterday, @alexheath's Sources broke that Snap was closing in on a $1 billion+ investment from PIF (Saudi Arabia) to create a separate Snap Labs business within Snap.
Is Snap Finally Breaking out Snap Labs’ Financials…
Is Snap Finally Breaking out Snap Labs’ Financials (Losses)? We have grown increasingly frustrated with Snap’s unwillingness to separate out financials for Snap Labs, the division build…
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Richard Greenfield @richlightshed.bsky.social · 11d
Why Would Netflix Spend $75 Billion to Shutter Most of Warner Bros?
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Why Would Netflix Spend $75 Billion to Shutter Most of Warner Bros?
In 2011, Netflix outbid HBO for House of Cards as its first major original, with the series premiering in February 2013 (though the first original was actually Lilyhammer in 2012). Days before Hous…
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Richard Greenfield @richlightshed.bsky.social · 11d
New Twist in Ellison's Paramount Offer for Warner Bros Discovery
New Twist in Ellison’s Paramount Offer for Warner Bros Discovery
In our PSKY/WBD post yesterday, Does the Math Behind Paramount’s Bid for Warner Bros. Discovery Work?, we laid out the valuation and leverage of a $25 offer for Paramount. Given our belief that Lar…
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Richard Greenfield @richlightshed.bsky.social · 12d
Ten Questions for Netflix’s Q3 2025 Earnings Tonight
$NFLX @netflix
Ten Questions for Netflix’s Q3 2025 Earnings Tonight
Listen (5:09) Here are our ten key questions for Netflix management on tonight’s Q3 2025 earnings discussion (our Q2 2025 questions can be found here).  1) What implications do you see from p…
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Richard Greenfield @richlightshed.bsky.social · 13d
Does the Math Behind Paramount’s Bid for Warner Bros. Discovery Work? $PSKY $WBD

Since taking control of Paramount, the Skydance team led by CEO David Ellison has proven the power of using money to outbid rivals...
Does the Math Behind Paramount’s Bid for Warner Bros. Discovery Work?
Listen (12:39 mins) Time and time again, money talks far louder than legacy relationships across Hollywood and Sports Media rights: In 1993, News Corp’s FOX outbids CBS for Sunday afternoon N…
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Richard Greenfield @richlightshed.bsky.social · 19d
⚡️ Spotify Gains Ad Reach, While Netflix Expands Time Spent ⚡️ $SPOT $NFLX

Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the Netflix/Spotify agreement is that all 16 podcasts will only be found on Spotify and Netflix. This means these 16 podcasts are coming off of YouTube...
Spotify Gains Ad Reach, While Netflix Expands Time…
Spotify Gains Ad Reach, While Netflix Expands Time Spent Earlier today (link), Netflix and Spotify announced an agreement for 16 Spotify video podcasts to be made available on Netflix. While Spotif…
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Richard Greenfield @richlightshed.bsky.social · 25d
Disney’s ESPN Uses Soon-to-be-Owned Fubo to Execute New “Streaming” Channel Strategy
$DIS $FUBO
Disney’s ESPN Uses Soon-to-be-Owned Fubo to Execute New “Streaming” Channel Strategy
Listen (5:05 mins) Last month (link), we highlighted that ESPN’s DTC launch was actually less about DTC and more about creating yet another network that it could force into MVPDs/vMVPDs bundl…
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Richard Greenfield @richlightshed.bsky.social · 27d
Why Netflix is Not Buying Warner Bros. and What Paramount Can Learn from Netflix

While we are sure there’s IP inside Warner Bros that Netflix would love to remake or exploit...the content driving Netflix’s subscriber growth has been...
Why Netflix is Not Buying Warner Bros. and What Paramount Can Learn from Netflix
Listen (4:46 mins) Last week, Variety wrote about the debut of Warner Bros.’ 2025 Superman on HBO Max with the following headline: “Superman Hits 13 Million Views in 10 Days of Streamin…
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Richard Greenfield @richlightshed.bsky.social · Oct 3
⚡️ Sorry Peacock 🦚 NBC and YouTube TV Reach Carriage Agreement Without You ⚡️

Earlier this year, Mike Cavanagh, now Comcast’s Co-CEO, stated: “We’re not really running a Peacock-only strategy. We’re running a broadcast-plus-streaming strategy and looking to optimize that over the years ahead...
Sorry Peacock: NBC and YouTube TV Reach Carriage…
Sorry Peacock: NBC and YouTube TV Reach Carriage Agreement Without You Earlier this year, Mike Cavanagh, now Comcast’s Co-CEO, stated: “We’re not really running a Peacock-only strategy.…
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Richard Greenfield @richlightshed.bsky.social · Oct 1
⚡️ ChatGPT Has Never Sent Reddit Nor Any Site Meaningful Traffic ⚡️ $RDDT

No investor was worried about ChatGPT sending less traffic to Reddit, because the traffic was insignificant to begin with…
ChatGPT Has Never Sent Reddit Nor Any Site…
ChatGPT Has Never Sent Reddit Nor Any Site Meaningful Traffic Investors are panicking over Similarweb and Promptwatch data that shows a drop in Reddit DAUs tied to a dramatic reduction in citations…
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Richard Greenfield @richlightshed.bsky.social · Sep 29
Make Hollywood Great Again, or Destroy It Trying

How can @realDonaldTrump push movie production back into the US and the scary implications if he succeeds...
Make Hollywood Great Again, or Destroy It Trying
Listen (5:56 mins) May 2025: President Trump announced plans for a 100% tariff on movies produced overseas to drive production back into the US (see our Lightning post here). The plan was met with …
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Richard Greenfield @richlightshed.bsky.social · Sep 26
The Streaming War Nobody Saw Coming: Ingestion

The biggest streaming battleground of 2025 is going to play out in the next 5 weeks, as @YouTubeTV does battle with @WaltDisneyCo and @NBCUniversal
The Streaming War Nobody Saw Coming: Ingestion
Listen (6:30) Two years ago, we sounded the alarm that when YouTube TV inevitably rose to a Top 4 MVPD/vMVPD it would have newfound leverage over broadcast station and cable network owners (link), …
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Richard Greenfield @richlightshed.bsky.social · Sep 25
Long Live TikTok US: Clearing Up the Myths

To be crystal clear, TikTok US is NOT being sold...
@tiktok_us $META $SNAP $GOOGL
Long Live TikTok US: Clearing Up the Myths
Listen (3:22) US Joint Venture. Over the next six months, ByteDance will convert its US subsidiary, TikTok US, into a joint-venture, between itself, its existing investors and a consortium of new i…
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Richard Greenfield @richlightshed.bsky.social · Sep 24
Disney's Hulu Magic: Making More Cost Less

Disney’s new higher streaming pricing ties directly to a world where Hulu no longer exists... $DIS
Disney’s Hulu Magic: Making More Cost Less
Listen (2:30 mins) Disney’s new higher streaming pricing ties directly to a world where Hulu no longer exists. Disney has already stated that the standalone Hulu app will be sunset in 2026. Y…
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Richard Greenfield @richlightshed.bsky.social · Sep 22
⚡️ Should Brian Roberts Move SNL from NBC & Peacock to Bravo & Peacock? ⚡️ $CMCSA

It is hard to imagine SNL without political commentary. While the FCC oversees broadcast television and must ensure TV station programming is in the public interest...
Should Brian Roberts Move SNL from NBC &…
Should Brian Roberts Move SNL from NBC & Peacock to Bravo & Peacock? The 51st season of Saturday Night Live kicks off on October 4, 2025. With CBS’ Colbert ending this season (suppose…
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Richard Greenfield @richlightshed.bsky.social · Sep 18
The Great Ellison Head-Scratcher: Why Start With One of Hollywood's Worst Before Buying One of the Best?
$PSKY $WBD
The Great Ellison Head-Scratcher: Why Start With One of Hollywood’s Worst Before Buying One of the Best?
Listen (4:00 mins) We have written quite a bit about Paramount’s speculated bid for Warner Bros Discovery over the past week (see links at the bottom of this post). However, two massive quest…
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Richard Greenfield @richlightshed.bsky.social · Sep 16
Who Wins, Who Loses From a Paramount Acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery?
$PSKY $WBD $NFLX $DIS $AMZN $AAPL $CMCSA
Who Wins, Who Loses From a Paramount Acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery?
Listen (7:53 mins) We have written about why Paramount is bidding now for Warner Bros. Discovery, rather than waiting for the company split next year (link), and how the Warner Bros. Discovery Boar…
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Richard Greenfield @richlightshed.bsky.social · Sep 15
Zaslav vs Ellison: The Battle for Warner Bros
$WBD $PARA
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Richard Greenfield @richlightshed.bsky.social · Sep 15
Could Zaslav Actually Say No to Ellison? $WBD $PARA

While we have yet to see the details of Paramount’s offer, assuming it materializes, we suspect the odds of getting a yes from the WBD Board are materially lower than most investors currently expect. Let the battle for Warner Bros begin…
Could Zaslav Actually Say No to Ellison?
Listen (7:08 mins) Prior to announcing a split of Warner Bros. Discovery into Warner Bros. and Discovery Global on June 9, 2025, WBD shares were trading at $9.82, down nearly 60% from where they cl…
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Richard Greenfield @richlightshed.bsky.social · Sep 12
⚡️ Why is Paramount Bidding for Warner Bros. Discovery Now? ⚡️ $PSKY $WBD

While WBD investors may hope for competitive bids from Netflix, Amazon or Apple, we do not believe any are likely to bid and even Comcast will be hard pressed to…
Why is Paramount Bidding for Warner Bros. Discovery…
Why is Paramount Bidding for Warner Bros. Discovery Now? While there is no official news from either Paramount or Warner Bros. Discovery following yesterday’s WSJ story (link), it appears Par…
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