When an argument sounds reasonable but feels wrong, rebuild it as a syllogism. The hidden premise is usually where it falls apart. Works on AI doomers and everyone else.

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Every argument has hidden assumptions connecting evidence to conclusions. Learning to find them - and evaluate them - is how you stop accepting bad reasoning from your own side.

The New York Times documents the diplomatic pressure campaign to release Andrew Tate

Forbes traced Epstein’s fortune: $200 million from Wexner, $170 million from Leon Black. Two men funded 75% of a predator’s wealth while banks kept processing flagged transactions.

Leslie Wexner claims he severed all ties with Jeffrey Epstein in fall 2007. Leaked emails show his family was still asking Epstein for financial approvals months later. A 2020 foundation review said “no contact” - the documentary evidence says otherwise.

Maria Farmer was assaulted by Epstein and Maxwell on property surrounded by Wexner’s Ohio estate in 1996. When she tried to flee, security told her she wasn’t going anywhere. She reported everything to the FBI. They didn’t open a case for ten years.

Forbes traced Epstein’s fortune: $200 million from Wexner, $170 million from Leon Black. Two men funded 75% of a predator’s wealth while banks kept processing flagged transactions.

Maria Farmer was assaulted by Epstein and Maxwell on property surrounded by Wexner’s Ohio estate in 1996. When she tried to flee, security told her she wasn’t going anywhere. She reported everything to the FBI. They didn’t open a case for ten years.

Jeffrey Epstein never worked for Victoria’s Secret. But he told young women he did - for over a decade - while executives who knew about it looked the other way. The fake recruiting scheme was an active tool in his predation.

Why your Thanksgiving dinner debate was probably just conclusions dressed up as reasoning Picture this scene. You’re at Thanksgiving dinner. Your uncle corners you in the kitchen to explain why he knows climate change is a hoax. He talks for fifteen minutes. His voice gets louder. He mentions Al Gore, something about ice cores, and the fact that it snowed in April. By the end, he’s basically yelling at the refrigerator while you stare at the potato salad wishing you could teleport. Sound familiar? Most of us have been there.

Why some conclusions are guaranteed and others are just really good guesses Last time we learned the difference between an argument and a fight. An argument has premises leading to a conclusion. A fight has emotions leading to exhaustion. Congratulations. You now know more about reasoning than most people who argue on the internet for a living. Here's the next piece. Not all arguments work the same way. The logical bridge connecting premises to conclusion - philosophers call this the inference - comes in two very different types. Understanding which type you're dealing with changes everything about how you evaluate what you're hearing.

Humans have always been better at destruction than robots Every generation picks its apocalypse. Right now, the smart money says it's AI. Machines will steal our jobs, collapse the economy, render humans obsolete. The solution everyone's pitching is Universal Basic Income, because apparently that's the only thing standing between us and complete societal breakdown. There's another way to think about this. Look at the track record of boogeyman predictions. Automation was going to create mass unemployment in the 1960s. Economists wrote serious papers about it. Spreadsheets were going to eliminate millions of jobs.

Leslie Wexner spent $25 million building Manhattan’s largest private residence. Then he gave it to Jeffrey Epstein for $0. Inside, FBI agents found hundreds of photos of nude girls and a safe full of evidence someone had already catalogued.

In July 1991, Leslie Wexner signed over complete power of attorney to Jeffrey Epstein - a man with no degree, no credentials, and no other known billionaire clients. That document became the foundation for everything Epstein built.

Jeffrey Epstein never worked for Victoria’s Secret. But he told young women he did - for over a decade - while executives who knew about it looked the other way. The fake recruiting scheme was an active tool in his predation.

Leslie Wexner spent $25 million building Manhattan’s largest private residence. Then he gave it to Jeffrey Epstein for $0. Inside, FBI agents found hundreds of photos of nude girls and a safe full of evidence someone had already catalogued.

In July 1991, Leslie Wexner signed over complete power of attorney to Jeffrey Epstein - a man with no degree, no credentials, and no other known billionaire clients. That document became the foundation for everything Epstein built.

Humans have always been better at destruction than robots Every generation picks its apocalypse. Right now, the smart money says it's AI. Machines will steal our jobs, collapse the economy, render humans obsolete. The solution everyone's pitching is Universal Basic Income, because apparently that's the only thing standing between us and complete societal breakdown. There's another way to think about this. Look at the track record of boogeyman predictions. Automation was going to create mass unemployment in the 1960s. Economists wrote serious papers about it. Spreadsheets were going to eliminate millions of jobs.

Trump’s “ONE RULE” AI order eliminates state protections against deepfakes, discrimination, and child exploitation - and replaces them with nothing. Congress already rejected this 99-1.