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NPV10 @npv10.bsky.social · 22m

think you know my view on that one - capex subsidy seems to lead to far more rent seeking than alternative support mechanisms

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NPV10 @npv10.bsky.social · 28m

hyperscalers + export capacity glut - associated gas decline = path towards unsubsidized transition to renewables in the us

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NPV10 @npv10.bsky.social · 19h

On one hand it’s not the worst thing when punting on real estate is not the only game in town, on the other hand, it would help if those alternatives were marginally less speculative. If they don’t like today’s prices, not sure how they will feel in a few years…

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NPV10 @npv10.bsky.social · 1d

Bsky posts?

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NPV10 @npv10.bsky.social · 2d

Sure all of that but also much of usg runs on sf and the company relies on massive fed contracts more than ever

NPV10 @npv10.bsky.social · 2d

like if you’re in the business of “CRM for ICE” you gotta talk the talk a bit under this admin I guess

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NPV10 @npv10.bsky.social · 2d

significant parts of USG run on salesforce; he is exposed more than most

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NPV10 @npv10.bsky.social · 3d

The JEF disclosures are a good reminder just how highly levered alts are not in debt/equity measure but GP co-invest to everything else

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NPV10 @npv10.bsky.social · 3d

i think that stock is for selling only!

good reminder how equity serves a very different role for alts than banks indeed

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NPV10 @npv10.bsky.social · 4d

id argue that that nasdaq performance apr20-jun21 is about same as in 99 and unlike the bubble part that people internalized from that area, covid boom sort of went unpunished and is in much more recent memory... or maybe im just too young having been too young back then

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NPV10 @npv10.bsky.social · 5d

Non recourse gpu financing…by a litigious issuer in a sector with no experience/track record of navigating credit cycles… i think we might get somewhere fun here

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NPV10 @npv10.bsky.social · 5d

There’s prbably a neocloud or two that could fail spectacularly and drag down some adjacent power plays but that stuff seems to be all funded by pc/hf/pe

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NPV10 @npv10.bsky.social · 5d

“The analysts identified 75 companies across tech, utilities and capital goods sectors that are closely tied to AI, including Oracle Corp., Apple Inc. and Duke Energy Corp.”

Idk this is fine. ultimately ex orcl this is not really where direct ai bubble exposure is going to lurk (megacap ig debt)

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NPV10 @npv10.bsky.social · 7d

all of those but rather than "curb energy use @DCs", the answer is to aggressively price and allocate expansion costs to incremental demand users. big tech has been keen to avail themselves to marginal costs when they were low (solar & wind of past) but now wants to bid total costs instead

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NPV10 @npv10.bsky.social · 7d

its because of the relative ease (vs old econ incumbents) at which big tech build their empires, that they are reflexively terrified at OpenAi coming for them. So they will spend defensively even at the cost of destroying whats behind their moats.

NPV10 @npv10.bsky.social · 7d

not sure the current market dynamics react beyond initial headline reflexes

NPV10 @npv10.bsky.social · 10d

feels off based on moco vibes. Redfin suggests slightly less extreme swing?

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NPV10 @npv10.bsky.social · 11d

in a K shaped econ, could argue that say a 150bps decline would provide less relief to borrowers (personal and corp) that need it most? what does 4.5% 30 yr rate do to housing - I think a lot of higher end consumers start to trade up (and pull money from stocks to do so).

NPV10 @npv10.bsky.social · 11d

sort of the dissonance where tech growth isn’t necessarily debt backed so the credit stumbling happens in somewhat adjacent & random industries until / if we see non megacap datacenter exposures

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NPV10 @npv10.bsky.social · 14d

i suppose outsized stick positions are one way to tackle excess tier1

NPV10 @npv10.bsky.social · 14d

10x Debt/EBITDA fully underwritten by JPM... 🤔

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NPV10 @npv10.bsky.social · 14d

because its still easy for people to avoid using crypto as an investment if they aren’t that into it; payment pressures counterparties with adoption

NPV10 @npv10.bsky.social · 16d

but none of history‘s big capital incinerators though of themselves as anything but rational players at the time. what feels different now is tech doesn’t have leverage risks but entering into a race to self deflate their margins… might keep the moat but find what’s behind it is far less valuable

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NPV10 @npv10.bsky.social · 17d

Don’t disagree it’s just that more gen capex in 2019-23 would make what’s to come a lot less painful. conceptually, you have say $0.5-1tn of GPUs coming online shortly and just acting as very inelastic power consumers - just different dynamics to respond to prices than say an aluminum smelter

NPV10 @npv10.bsky.social · 17d

To be fair decline in capex will lead to more painful increase in cost in future as demand outstrips supply. The thing about assets with 25yr useful lives is that the cost becomes v painful when you need to deal with a somewhat sudden supply shortage…

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