Nick Frass
@nickfrass.bsky.social
I write The Forward Curve, a newsletter where I explore energy and economics.
https://open.substack.com/pub/nickfrass?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=5e9bwc
Energy Systems Engineering - Grad Student
https://open.substack.com/pub/nickfrass?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=5e9bwc
Energy Systems Engineering - Grad Student
Pinned
Nick Frass
@nickfrass.bsky.social
· Sep 8
How Tariffs Hurt American AI
And many other industries too
open.substack.com
The same solar panels cost half as much in Australia as in the US. Why?
The answer is a suite of tariffs, supported by every President since 2012. To stay competitive in AI and advanced manufacturing, I argue we need to stop holding ourselves back. #econsky
open.substack.com/pub/nickfras...
The answer is a suite of tariffs, supported by every President since 2012. To stay competitive in AI and advanced manufacturing, I argue we need to stop holding ourselves back. #econsky
open.substack.com/pub/nickfras...
The same solar panels cost half as much in Australia as in the US. Why?
The answer is a suite of tariffs, supported by every President since 2012. To stay competitive in AI and advanced manufacturing, I argue we need to stop holding ourselves back. #econsky
open.substack.com/pub/nickfras...
The answer is a suite of tariffs, supported by every President since 2012. To stay competitive in AI and advanced manufacturing, I argue we need to stop holding ourselves back. #econsky
open.substack.com/pub/nickfras...
How Tariffs Hurt American AI
And many other industries too
open.substack.com
September 8, 2025 at 9:22 PM
The same solar panels cost half as much in Australia as in the US. Why?
The answer is a suite of tariffs, supported by every President since 2012. To stay competitive in AI and advanced manufacturing, I argue we need to stop holding ourselves back. #econsky
open.substack.com/pub/nickfras...
The answer is a suite of tariffs, supported by every President since 2012. To stay competitive in AI and advanced manufacturing, I argue we need to stop holding ourselves back. #econsky
open.substack.com/pub/nickfras...
Australians can buy the same solar panels for half the price of Americans. Why?
The culprit is a suite of tariffs, supported by both parties since 2012. If we want to stay competitive in AI and advanced manufacturing, we need to stop holding ourselves back. 🔌💡
open.substack.com/pub/nickfras...
The culprit is a suite of tariffs, supported by both parties since 2012. If we want to stay competitive in AI and advanced manufacturing, we need to stop holding ourselves back. 🔌💡
open.substack.com/pub/nickfras...
How Tariffs Hurt American AI
And many other industries too
open.substack.com
September 8, 2025 at 8:42 PM
Australians can buy the same solar panels for half the price of Americans. Why?
The culprit is a suite of tariffs, supported by both parties since 2012. If we want to stay competitive in AI and advanced manufacturing, we need to stop holding ourselves back. 🔌💡
open.substack.com/pub/nickfras...
The culprit is a suite of tariffs, supported by both parties since 2012. If we want to stay competitive in AI and advanced manufacturing, we need to stop holding ourselves back. 🔌💡
open.substack.com/pub/nickfras...
If Trump attacks the Fed and cuts interest rates, we may see a surge of solar and battery installations. This would be short-lived if low rates trigger inflation and rates have to be raised again. But inflation would further help solar projects that manage to get financed in this window. 🔌💡
August 29, 2025 at 1:29 PM
If Trump attacks the Fed and cuts interest rates, we may see a surge of solar and battery installations. This would be short-lived if low rates trigger inflation and rates have to be raised again. But inflation would further help solar projects that manage to get financed in this window. 🔌💡
Great podcast on the effects of ESG investing. Could ESG and fossil fuel divestment raise the cost of capital for energy companies and, in doing so, inadvertently drive them towards short-term, highly polluting decisions? Definitely worth considering.🔌💡
youtu.be/7WjrmBSUZI4?...
youtu.be/7WjrmBSUZI4?...
Are E.S.G. Investors Actually Helping the Environment? | Freakonomics Radio | Episode 546
YouTube video by Freakonomics Radio Network
youtu.be
August 26, 2025 at 12:10 PM
Great podcast on the effects of ESG investing. Could ESG and fossil fuel divestment raise the cost of capital for energy companies and, in doing so, inadvertently drive them towards short-term, highly polluting decisions? Definitely worth considering.🔌💡
youtu.be/7WjrmBSUZI4?...
youtu.be/7WjrmBSUZI4?...
Hot 🔌💡 take: we shouldn't cite the amount of renewable investment or capacity getting built as evidence of victory. Renewables, with high capital costs and low capacity factors, seem to do amazing on these metrics. It obscures the actual trajectory we are on.
pv-magazine-usa.com/2025/08/20/s...
pv-magazine-usa.com/2025/08/20/s...
Solar to represent half of new U.S. electric generating capacity in 2025
The Energy Information Administration said developers plan to add 21 GW of solar in the second half of 2025 alone.
pv-magazine-usa.com
August 22, 2025 at 6:39 PM
Hot 🔌💡 take: we shouldn't cite the amount of renewable investment or capacity getting built as evidence of victory. Renewables, with high capital costs and low capacity factors, seem to do amazing on these metrics. It obscures the actual trajectory we are on.
pv-magazine-usa.com/2025/08/20/s...
pv-magazine-usa.com/2025/08/20/s...
#energysky I suspect this means projects won't get the tax credits. Period. I hope I am wrong.
www.utilitydive.com/news/treasur...
www.utilitydive.com/news/treasur...
Wind, solar must show ‘significant’ work but ‘no fixed minimum’ under new Treasury rules
To qualify for tax credits, projects will need to meet less cut-and-dried physical construction requirements instead of spending at least 5% of project costs to prove construction had commenced.
www.utilitydive.com
August 22, 2025 at 3:28 AM
#energysky I suspect this means projects won't get the tax credits. Period. I hope I am wrong.
www.utilitydive.com/news/treasur...
www.utilitydive.com/news/treasur...
I think it is good messaging to complain about republicans broadly instead of Trump specifically (even though Trump is the worst). Conservatives complain about Democrats and the radical left. Liberals mostly complain about Trump. It wins us very few allies, and it makes us seem obsessive to normies.
August 19, 2025 at 12:03 PM
I think it is good messaging to complain about republicans broadly instead of Trump specifically (even though Trump is the worst). Conservatives complain about Democrats and the radical left. Liberals mostly complain about Trump. It wins us very few allies, and it makes us seem obsessive to normies.
If the hyperscalers bypass the grid and build off-grid solar and batteries to power their facilities, they will need a lot of excess capacity that will simply be wasted most of the time.
This means free excess energy at relatively high capacity factors. The industrial implications could be huge! 🔌💡
This means free excess energy at relatively high capacity factors. The industrial implications could be huge! 🔌💡
August 18, 2025 at 3:54 PM
If the hyperscalers bypass the grid and build off-grid solar and batteries to power their facilities, they will need a lot of excess capacity that will simply be wasted most of the time.
This means free excess energy at relatively high capacity factors. The industrial implications could be huge! 🔌💡
This means free excess energy at relatively high capacity factors. The industrial implications could be huge! 🔌💡
I find some comfort in knowing that, even when politicians fail us, scientists and engineers are still working hard. 🔌💡
www.sustainability-times.com/energy/envis...
www.sustainability-times.com/energy/envis...
Envision Energy’s Breakthrough Shows "One Blade Gone, Power Still Surges" as Two-Blade Turbine Matches Three-Blade Efficiency and Promises Cheaper Wind Farms - Sustainability Times
IN A NUTSHELL 🌬️ Envision Energy’s new prototype features a two-bladed design that rivals the efficiency of traditional models. 🔧 Engineers have integrated a high-speed generator and lightweight const...
www.sustainability-times.com
August 11, 2025 at 8:47 PM
I find some comfort in knowing that, even when politicians fail us, scientists and engineers are still working hard. 🔌💡
www.sustainability-times.com/energy/envis...
www.sustainability-times.com/energy/envis...
August 7, 2025 at 12:41 PM
With a conservative government, new electricity demand for data centers, and a shortage of new gas turbines, there has never been a better time for democrats to support an all of the above energy strategy. Right now, all of the above is de facto renewables, which are cheap and readily available.
August 6, 2025 at 11:50 PM
With a conservative government, new electricity demand for data centers, and a shortage of new gas turbines, there has never been a better time for democrats to support an all of the above energy strategy. Right now, all of the above is de facto renewables, which are cheap and readily available.
Reposted by Nick Frass
cars should just hook onto a track on the freeway so you don’t have to drive
people could share spaces in their car
they could make cars big enough to hold like 100 people
maybe with a dining car
people could share spaces in their car
they could make cars big enough to hold like 100 people
maybe with a dining car
August 6, 2025 at 11:09 PM
cars should just hook onto a track on the freeway so you don’t have to drive
people could share spaces in their car
they could make cars big enough to hold like 100 people
maybe with a dining car
people could share spaces in their car
they could make cars big enough to hold like 100 people
maybe with a dining car
I love seeing floating solar projects paired with hydroelectric dams. Higher capacity factors on existing transmission without a need for batteries
Afreximbank finances 1 GW floating solar project in Zimbabwe #EnergySky
Afreximbank finances 1 GW floating solar project in Zimbabwe
The African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) has signed a US$4.4m Heads of Terms agreement for the development of a 1 GW hybrid floating solar PV on Lake Kariba, in Zimbabwe. The contract was signed…
www.enerdata.net
August 6, 2025 at 3:10 PM
I love seeing floating solar projects paired with hydroelectric dams. Higher capacity factors on existing transmission without a need for batteries
In 1992, Mexico City was the most polluted city in the world. Today, it is a far greener and more livable city. What drove this transition?
In this article, I lay out a new framework for identifying when clean transitions will occur and how it can be encouraged 🔌💡
open.substack.com/pub/nickfras...
In this article, I lay out a new framework for identifying when clean transitions will occur and how it can be encouraged 🔌💡
open.substack.com/pub/nickfras...
When Do Countries Stop Polluting?
A theory of action
open.substack.com
August 6, 2025 at 2:26 PM
In 1992, Mexico City was the most polluted city in the world. Today, it is a far greener and more livable city. What drove this transition?
In this article, I lay out a new framework for identifying when clean transitions will occur and how it can be encouraged 🔌💡
open.substack.com/pub/nickfras...
In this article, I lay out a new framework for identifying when clean transitions will occur and how it can be encouraged 🔌💡
open.substack.com/pub/nickfras...
It's a duck curve in the batteries or a duck curve in the grid. The choice is yours.
July Update:
🔌💡
🔌💡
August 4, 2025 at 2:20 AM
It's a duck curve in the batteries or a duck curve in the grid. The choice is yours.
Reposted by Nick Frass
The story of how Trump sells access to the White House - to benefit himself and his family financially and to benefit his political operation - is shocking and sordid.
No President has ever monetized access like Trump has.
1/ It's a story you need to know.
No President has ever monetized access like Trump has.
1/ It's a story you need to know.
August 3, 2025 at 1:15 PM
The story of how Trump sells access to the White House - to benefit himself and his family financially and to benefit his political operation - is shocking and sordid.
No President has ever monetized access like Trump has.
1/ It's a story you need to know.
No President has ever monetized access like Trump has.
1/ It's a story you need to know.
I think Pete Buttigieg should run for president in 2028, but I also think he should get really, really buff first. Not fit, buff. An extremely muscular Pete Buttigieg would sweep every swing state and get 60% of the popular vote. Guaranteed.
August 2, 2025 at 8:58 PM
I think Pete Buttigieg should run for president in 2028, but I also think he should get really, really buff first. Not fit, buff. An extremely muscular Pete Buttigieg would sweep every swing state and get 60% of the popular vote. Guaranteed.
I suspect biofuel will be the best option for net-zero shipping and aviation, but while so much of our electricity comes from gas and coal and so many of our cars run on gasoline, biofuel is absolutely on the wrong end of the pareto curve.
As long as we’re talking about energy per acre: solar would produce more than 100x the useable energy per acre versus biofuels on the vast majority of the world’s land.
Source: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Chapter 7. www.sustainablefoodfuture.org 🔌💡🧪🌱☀️
August 2, 2025 at 7:26 PM
I suspect biofuel will be the best option for net-zero shipping and aviation, but while so much of our electricity comes from gas and coal and so many of our cars run on gasoline, biofuel is absolutely on the wrong end of the pareto curve.
This is much more malicious than the One Big Beautiful Bill's cutting of wind and solar subsidies. Unlike cutting subsidies, this cannot be explained by a sincere belief in free markets. It requires either corruption, an unfathomable level of pettiness, or both. 🔌💡
apnews.com/article/trum...
apnews.com/article/trum...
Trump administration cancels plans to develop new offshore wind projects
The Trump administration is canceling plans to use large areas of federal waters for new offshore wind development.
apnews.com
August 2, 2025 at 3:29 AM
This is much more malicious than the One Big Beautiful Bill's cutting of wind and solar subsidies. Unlike cutting subsidies, this cannot be explained by a sincere belief in free markets. It requires either corruption, an unfathomable level of pettiness, or both. 🔌💡
apnews.com/article/trum...
apnews.com/article/trum...
Reposted by Nick Frass
HUGE: The Trump administration will no longer permit any solar or wind projects on federal lands unless they produce more energy-per-acre than coal, gas or nuclear power plants.
Solar and wind literally produce less energy per acre, so simply this may just kill off any project on federal lands.
Solar and wind literally produce less energy per acre, so simply this may just kill off any project on federal lands.
Interior Order Chokes Off Permits for Solar and Wind on Federal Lands
The department creates a seemingly impossible new permitting criteria for renewable energy.
heatmap.news
August 2, 2025 at 2:18 AM
HUGE: The Trump administration will no longer permit any solar or wind projects on federal lands unless they produce more energy-per-acre than coal, gas or nuclear power plants.
Solar and wind literally produce less energy per acre, so simply this may just kill off any project on federal lands.
Solar and wind literally produce less energy per acre, so simply this may just kill off any project on federal lands.
If you get electricity from nuclear and drive an electric car, it's not a gas pedal. It's an atomic pedal. 🚗⚡️☢️
August 1, 2025 at 9:13 PM
If you get electricity from nuclear and drive an electric car, it's not a gas pedal. It's an atomic pedal. 🚗⚡️☢️
Pretty horrifying.
Smithsonian's American History museum does a White House "content review" then rewrites history, removing Trump's impeachments. A spokesperson says "it became clear that the ‘Limits of Presidential Power’ section ... needed to be addressed" wapo.st/3HhfyxU @janaykingsberry.bsky.social
Smithsonian removes Trump from impeachment exhibit in American History Museum
A temporary placard, on display since 2021, described the president's historic impeachments. Officials said the exhibit was restored to an earlier version following a review of legacy content.
wapo.st
August 1, 2025 at 8:59 PM
Pretty horrifying.
I understand why new nuclear plants are so expensive, but I don't understand why already established nuclear plants would ever shut down. Are they that expensive to operate? Do they require major overhauls? Can anyone explain this to me or link me a good explanation? #energysky
August 1, 2025 at 4:03 PM
I understand why new nuclear plants are so expensive, but I don't understand why already established nuclear plants would ever shut down. Are they that expensive to operate? Do they require major overhauls? Can anyone explain this to me or link me a good explanation? #energysky
I don't think the US needs to produce solar panels or batteries to benefit from them, just like we didn't need to produce oil to benefit from it in the 20th century. We should be buying up the cheap chinese options and using their power to dominate in the AI/data center race.
China calls them the "New Three" -- solar panels, EVs, and batteries -- a set of technologies the country dominates.
But once, the US had a headstart.
New from me and @naemas.bsky.social on how the US lost its lead in clean energy -- and how China took over.
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
But once, the US had a headstart.
New from me and @naemas.bsky.social on how the US lost its lead in clean energy -- and how China took over.
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
The U.S. invented these technologies. Then China dominated them.
China dominates the global market for clean energy technology like electric vehicles, batteries and solar panels, which were all invented in the U.S.
www.washingtonpost.com
July 31, 2025 at 4:16 PM
I don't think the US needs to produce solar panels or batteries to benefit from them, just like we didn't need to produce oil to benefit from it in the 20th century. We should be buying up the cheap chinese options and using their power to dominate in the AI/data center race.
