Miles Kellerman
@mileskellerman.bsky.social
Assistant Professor at Leiden University's Institute of Security and Global Affairs. Working on the intersections of finance, crime, and international politics.
Website: mileskellerman.com
Substack: https://open.substack.com/pub/mileskellerman
Website: mileskellerman.com
Substack: https://open.substack.com/pub/mileskellerman
It is hard to ignore the convenience of this initiative for American social media companies who might otherwise be restricted by campaign finance laws
EXC: US State dept is set to fund Maga-aligned think-tanks and charities in UK/ Europe to amplify Washington’s policy stances and challenge perceived threats to free speech
W/ @annasophiegross.bsky.social, @oilsheppard.bsky.social & Amy McKinnon
as.ft.com/r/98452b33-5...
W/ @annasophiegross.bsky.social, @oilsheppard.bsky.social & Amy McKinnon
as.ft.com/r/98452b33-5...
US government to fund Maga-aligned think-tanks and charities in Europe
[FREE TO READ] State department grants to spread ‘American values’ are part of Washington’s 250th anniversary celebrations
as.ft.com
February 6, 2026 at 7:54 AM
It is hard to ignore the convenience of this initiative for American social media companies who might otherwise be restricted by campaign finance laws
What explains Trump's rise? How did we get here?
There are many theories. But I keep coming back to a single place: Orange County, California.
Here's a story about how my hometown invented subprime lending and, in turn, changed the course of history
mileskellerman.substack.com/p/orange-cou...
There are many theories. But I keep coming back to a single place: Orange County, California.
Here's a story about how my hometown invented subprime lending and, in turn, changed the course of history
mileskellerman.substack.com/p/orange-cou...
Orange County Syndrome
How the birthplace of subprime mortgages paved the way for Trump's rise.
mileskellerman.substack.com
February 3, 2026 at 4:10 PM
What explains Trump's rise? How did we get here?
There are many theories. But I keep coming back to a single place: Orange County, California.
Here's a story about how my hometown invented subprime lending and, in turn, changed the course of history
mileskellerman.substack.com/p/orange-cou...
There are many theories. But I keep coming back to a single place: Orange County, California.
Here's a story about how my hometown invented subprime lending and, in turn, changed the course of history
mileskellerman.substack.com/p/orange-cou...
Writing in the Oxford Business Law Blog, I argue we face a "Detection Trilemma" in financial crime.
The solution? Licensed Detection Agents — regulated bounty hunters empowered to surveil data and rewarded for results.
#econsky #polisky #lawsky #finance
blogs.law.ox.ac.uk/oblb/blog-po...
The solution? Licensed Detection Agents — regulated bounty hunters empowered to surveil data and rewarded for results.
#econsky #polisky #lawsky #finance
blogs.law.ox.ac.uk/oblb/blog-po...
Licensed Detection Agents: A New Market Mechanism for
blogs.law.ox.ac.uk
January 30, 2026 at 1:41 PM
Writing in the Oxford Business Law Blog, I argue we face a "Detection Trilemma" in financial crime.
The solution? Licensed Detection Agents — regulated bounty hunters empowered to surveil data and rewarded for results.
#econsky #polisky #lawsky #finance
blogs.law.ox.ac.uk/oblb/blog-po...
The solution? Licensed Detection Agents — regulated bounty hunters empowered to surveil data and rewarded for results.
#econsky #polisky #lawsky #finance
blogs.law.ox.ac.uk/oblb/blog-po...
“European officials, on the other hand, talk incessantly about the anti-coercion instrument, but it still fails to deter because they seem so extraordinarily reluctant to deploy it.”
@himself.bsky.social gets to the heart of the matter in a clear eyed op-Ed.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/21/o...
@himself.bsky.social gets to the heart of the matter in a clear eyed op-Ed.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/21/o...
Opinion | Europe Has a Bazooka. Time to Use It.
www.nytimes.com
January 21, 2026 at 5:08 PM
“European officials, on the other hand, talk incessantly about the anti-coercion instrument, but it still fails to deter because they seem so extraordinarily reluctant to deploy it.”
@himself.bsky.social gets to the heart of the matter in a clear eyed op-Ed.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/21/o...
@himself.bsky.social gets to the heart of the matter in a clear eyed op-Ed.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/21/o...
Reposted by Miles Kellerman
To prevent miscalculation, avoid US taking Greenland, Europe has to disabuse the US of the notion that it is weak. This means clearly signaling what's on the table to deter action. To deter, Europe has to be clear. The problem is Euro foreign policy is anything but clear. 9/
January 20, 2026 at 2:12 PM
To prevent miscalculation, avoid US taking Greenland, Europe has to disabuse the US of the notion that it is weak. This means clearly signaling what's on the table to deter action. To deter, Europe has to be clear. The problem is Euro foreign policy is anything but clear. 9/
Reposted by Miles Kellerman
They did after 9/11, it's a historical fact.
Trump: "The big fear I have with NATO is we spend tremendous amounts of money with NATO and I know we'll come to their rescue, but I just really do question whether or not they'll come to ours. Just saying."
January 20, 2026 at 8:01 PM
They did after 9/11, it's a historical fact.
Reposted by Miles Kellerman
The thing to know about the PM of Canada is he just signed a trade deal with China. He is as serious as a heart attack about this.
"You cannot live within the lie of mutual benefit through integration when integration becomes the source of your subordination."
"Hegemons cannot continuously monetize their relationships. Allies will diversify..."
In an ocean of platitudes, a real speech emerges.
www.youtube.com/live/JtF630g...
"Hegemons cannot continuously monetize their relationships. Allies will diversify..."
In an ocean of platitudes, a real speech emerges.
www.youtube.com/live/JtF630g...
LIVE: PM Carney delivers special address at World Economic Forum
YouTube video by CTV News
www.youtube.com
January 20, 2026 at 6:43 PM
The thing to know about the PM of Canada is he just signed a trade deal with China. He is as serious as a heart attack about this.
"You cannot live within the lie of mutual benefit through integration when integration becomes the source of your subordination."
"Hegemons cannot continuously monetize their relationships. Allies will diversify..."
In an ocean of platitudes, a real speech emerges.
www.youtube.com/live/JtF630g...
"Hegemons cannot continuously monetize their relationships. Allies will diversify..."
In an ocean of platitudes, a real speech emerges.
www.youtube.com/live/JtF630g...
LIVE: PM Carney delivers special address at World Economic Forum
YouTube video by CTV News
www.youtube.com
January 20, 2026 at 6:41 PM
"You cannot live within the lie of mutual benefit through integration when integration becomes the source of your subordination."
"Hegemons cannot continuously monetize their relationships. Allies will diversify..."
In an ocean of platitudes, a real speech emerges.
www.youtube.com/live/JtF630g...
"Hegemons cannot continuously monetize their relationships. Allies will diversify..."
In an ocean of platitudes, a real speech emerges.
www.youtube.com/live/JtF630g...
Before the Venezuela operation, a user made $400k on Polymarket betting against Maduro.
Prediction markets claim to facilitate truth discovery. But in a new post, I contend they are warping reality by reducing politics to a series of binary wagers.
mileskellerman.substack.com/p/betting-on...
Prediction markets claim to facilitate truth discovery. But in a new post, I contend they are warping reality by reducing politics to a series of binary wagers.
mileskellerman.substack.com/p/betting-on...
Betting on Regime Change
Someone made a fortune betting on Maduro's capture. It exemplifies how prediction markets are reducing world events to nothing more than a casino wager.
mileskellerman.substack.com
January 7, 2026 at 10:41 AM
Before the Venezuela operation, a user made $400k on Polymarket betting against Maduro.
Prediction markets claim to facilitate truth discovery. But in a new post, I contend they are warping reality by reducing politics to a series of binary wagers.
mileskellerman.substack.com/p/betting-on...
Prediction markets claim to facilitate truth discovery. But in a new post, I contend they are warping reality by reducing politics to a series of binary wagers.
mileskellerman.substack.com/p/betting-on...
Reposted by Miles Kellerman
My head is spinning as Trump goes full neo-royalist. Venezuela becomes a tool to redistribute oil revenues to those of Trump's choosing. Very similar to the exceptions and investment deals tied to tariff negotiations.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
January 7, 2026 at 12:39 AM
My head is spinning as Trump goes full neo-royalist. Venezuela becomes a tool to redistribute oil revenues to those of Trump's choosing. Very similar to the exceptions and investment deals tied to tariff negotiations.
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
With suspiciously perfect timing, someone made a fortune betting on Maduro's ousting.
In a new post for False Positive, I reflect on how prediction markets are reducing political events to nothing more than a casino wager.
#polisky #econsky #lawsky
mileskellerman.substack.com/p/betting-on...
In a new post for False Positive, I reflect on how prediction markets are reducing political events to nothing more than a casino wager.
#polisky #econsky #lawsky
mileskellerman.substack.com/p/betting-on...
Betting on Regime Change
Someone made a fortune betting on Maduro's capture. It exemplifies how prediction markets are reducing world events to nothing more than a casino wager.
mileskellerman.substack.com
January 6, 2026 at 4:37 PM
With suspiciously perfect timing, someone made a fortune betting on Maduro's ousting.
In a new post for False Positive, I reflect on how prediction markets are reducing political events to nothing more than a casino wager.
#polisky #econsky #lawsky
mileskellerman.substack.com/p/betting-on...
In a new post for False Positive, I reflect on how prediction markets are reducing political events to nothing more than a casino wager.
#polisky #econsky #lawsky
mileskellerman.substack.com/p/betting-on...
Reposted by Miles Kellerman
5/This is not a world marked by spheres of interest in the traditional sense because the focus is not about competing blocks. It is about extraction and dominance for the insider elite clique.
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/u...
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/u...
The Trump Doctrine in Venezuela
Richard Haass explains why the US military intervention and arrest of Nicolás Maduro will play well in Beijing and Moscow.
www.project-syndicate.org
January 4, 2026 at 3:07 PM
5/This is not a world marked by spheres of interest in the traditional sense because the focus is not about competing blocks. It is about extraction and dominance for the insider elite clique.
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/u...
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/u...
“We” are in the oil-selling business. The President of the United States claims Venezuela’s assets as his own.
January 3, 2026 at 5:26 PM
“We” are in the oil-selling business. The President of the United States claims Venezuela’s assets as his own.
Reposted by Miles Kellerman
A deluge of work on regime change after the 2003 invasion of Iraq yielded strong (and rare) agreement in IR: it doesn't work & has terrible consequences. @profdownes.bsky.social's book Catastrophic Success lays it out, but it's right there in the title. www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...
January 3, 2026 at 1:41 PM
A deluge of work on regime change after the 2003 invasion of Iraq yielded strong (and rare) agreement in IR: it doesn't work & has terrible consequences. @profdownes.bsky.social's book Catastrophic Success lays it out, but it's right there in the title. www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...
This is a huge moment, a complete integration of crypto into the state-regulated sphere and the realm of companies likely to be bailed out by taxpayers in times of stress
Crypto can only survive long-term if it gets access to the publicly backed banking system.
In one fell swoop, the OCC—the regulator for national banks—just approved five (5) bank charter applications by crypto companies.
www.occ.gov/news-issuanc...
In one fell swoop, the OCC—the regulator for national banks—just approved five (5) bank charter applications by crypto companies.
www.occ.gov/news-issuanc...
December 12, 2025 at 6:02 PM
This is a huge moment, a complete integration of crypto into the state-regulated sphere and the realm of companies likely to be bailed out by taxpayers in times of stress
Reposted by Miles Kellerman
Russia’s well-resourced financial intelligence unit, Rosfinmonitoring, is indeed capable of extensive oversight. But it uses these tools against the Kremlin’s conception of bad actors, writes @mileskellerman.bsky.social. bit.ly/4oMGEg3
Will the EU’s Blacklisting of Russia Make a Difference?
Miles Kellerman concludes that it will marginally improve the pressure campaign on the Kremlin but risks collateral damage.
bit.ly
December 12, 2025 at 4:58 PM
Russia’s well-resourced financial intelligence unit, Rosfinmonitoring, is indeed capable of extensive oversight. But it uses these tools against the Kremlin’s conception of bad actors, writes @mileskellerman.bsky.social. bit.ly/4oMGEg3
I have a new op-ed in @projectsyndicate.bsky.social on the EU adding Russia to its AML blacklist (no, it wasn’t already on it!).
It’s symbolically important and closes a (narrow) loophole, but will also impose collateral damage on innocent Russian émigrés
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/e...
It’s symbolically important and closes a (narrow) loophole, but will also impose collateral damage on innocent Russian émigrés
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/e...
Will the EU’s Blacklisting of Russia Make a Difference?
Miles Kellerman concludes that it will marginally improve the pressure campaign on the Kremlin but risks collateral damage.
www.project-syndicate.org
December 12, 2025 at 4:32 PM
I have a new op-ed in @projectsyndicate.bsky.social on the EU adding Russia to its AML blacklist (no, it wasn’t already on it!).
It’s symbolically important and closes a (narrow) loophole, but will also impose collateral damage on innocent Russian émigrés
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/e...
It’s symbolically important and closes a (narrow) loophole, but will also impose collateral damage on innocent Russian émigrés
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/e...
Reposted by Miles Kellerman
1/AI chip sale to China strike a tectonic shift in US national security policy? Whats diving it:"It is a system that closely reflects what Stacie Goddard and Abraham Newman have referred to as neo-royalism...The winning clique is clear: Nvidia, Trump’s inner circle"
open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...
open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...
Economic Statecraft on Chaos Mode
Trump’s reversal on Nvidia chip sales to China exposes a deeper rot: U.S. export control policy is running on vibes and private interests.
open.substack.com
December 10, 2025 at 12:42 PM
1/AI chip sale to China strike a tectonic shift in US national security policy? Whats diving it:"It is a system that closely reflects what Stacie Goddard and Abraham Newman have referred to as neo-royalism...The winning clique is clear: Nvidia, Trump’s inner circle"
open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...
open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...
Reposted by Miles Kellerman
Yesterday, Trump lifted the ban on H200 chip sales to China just hours after the DOJ busted a smuggling ring for the exact same chips.
This isn't just bad coordination. It exposes a deeper rot: US economic statecraft is now running on vibes and private interests.
open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...
This isn't just bad coordination. It exposes a deeper rot: US economic statecraft is now running on vibes and private interests.
open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...
Economic Statecraft on Chaos Mode
Trump’s reversal on Nvidia chip sales to China exposes a deeper rot: U.S. export control policy is running on vibes and private interests.
open.substack.com
December 9, 2025 at 5:23 PM
Yesterday, Trump lifted the ban on H200 chip sales to China just hours after the DOJ busted a smuggling ring for the exact same chips.
This isn't just bad coordination. It exposes a deeper rot: US economic statecraft is now running on vibes and private interests.
open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...
This isn't just bad coordination. It exposes a deeper rot: US economic statecraft is now running on vibes and private interests.
open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...
Yesterday, Trump lifted the ban on H200 chip sales to China just hours after the DOJ busted a smuggling ring for the exact same chips.
This isn't just bad coordination. It exposes a deeper rot: US economic statecraft is now running on vibes and private interests.
open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...
This isn't just bad coordination. It exposes a deeper rot: US economic statecraft is now running on vibes and private interests.
open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...
Economic Statecraft on Chaos Mode
Trump’s reversal on Nvidia chip sales to China exposes a deeper rot: U.S. export control policy is running on vibes and private interests.
open.substack.com
December 9, 2025 at 5:23 PM
Yesterday, Trump lifted the ban on H200 chip sales to China just hours after the DOJ busted a smuggling ring for the exact same chips.
This isn't just bad coordination. It exposes a deeper rot: US economic statecraft is now running on vibes and private interests.
open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...
This isn't just bad coordination. It exposes a deeper rot: US economic statecraft is now running on vibes and private interests.
open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...
Last week, the DOJ shut down a major network for smuggling Nvidia H200 chips into China. This week, Trump says those controls no longer apply.
U.S. statecraft on chaos mode.
www.ft.com/content/ac63...
U.S. statecraft on chaos mode.
www.ft.com/content/ac63...
Nvidia can sell H200 AI chips to China, Donald Trump says
President says other chipmakers can also resume exports and ‘25% will be paid’ to the US
www.ft.com
December 9, 2025 at 7:44 AM
Last week, the DOJ shut down a major network for smuggling Nvidia H200 chips into China. This week, Trump says those controls no longer apply.
U.S. statecraft on chaos mode.
www.ft.com/content/ac63...
U.S. statecraft on chaos mode.
www.ft.com/content/ac63...
With every action a reaction. Chinese companies are finding workarounds to sidestep Beijing's export controls.
www.wsj.com/world/china/...
www.wsj.com/world/china/...
Exclusive | Chinese Rare-Earth Dealers Find Ways to Dodge Beijing’s Export Restrictions
Companies are tweaking magnet formulas and embedding them in motors to keep selling to the West.
www.wsj.com
December 3, 2025 at 12:43 PM
With every action a reaction. Chinese companies are finding workarounds to sidestep Beijing's export controls.
www.wsj.com/world/china/...
www.wsj.com/world/china/...
"In White House meetings, Mr. Sacks echoed [Nvidia CEO] Mr. Huang’s ideas that the best way to beat China would be to flood the world with American technology. Mr. Sacks worked to eliminate Biden-era restrictions on Nvidia and other American chip companies’ sales to foreign countries."
We just published a deep look into David Sacks, the White House's AI and Crypto czar. The story examines how he has been able keep hundreds of stakes in AI-related and crypto companies as he influences gov policy in those very industries.
Here's what we found:
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/30/t...
Here's what we found:
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/30/t...
Silicon Valley’s Man in the White House Is Benefiting Himself and His Friends
www.nytimes.com
November 30, 2025 at 8:19 PM
"In White House meetings, Mr. Sacks echoed [Nvidia CEO] Mr. Huang’s ideas that the best way to beat China would be to flood the world with American technology. Mr. Sacks worked to eliminate Biden-era restrictions on Nvidia and other American chip companies’ sales to foreign countries."
Reposted by Miles Kellerman
This story should be covered waaaaayy more than it is.
The US has sanctioned six judges if the international criminal court ICC, because Trump didn’t like them issuing arrest warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu and former Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant.
www.lemonde.fr/en/internati...
The US has sanctioned six judges if the international criminal court ICC, because Trump didn’t like them issuing arrest warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu and former Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant.
www.lemonde.fr/en/internati...
Nicolas Guillou, French ICC judge sanctioned by the US: 'You are effectively blacklisted by much of the world's banking system'
Six judges and three prosecutors at the International Criminal Court have been sanctioned by the Trump administration. In an interview with Le Monde, Guillou discusses the impact of these measures on ...
www.lemonde.fr
November 24, 2025 at 8:13 PM
This story should be covered waaaaayy more than it is.
The US has sanctioned six judges if the international criminal court ICC, because Trump didn’t like them issuing arrest warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu and former Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant.
www.lemonde.fr/en/internati...
The US has sanctioned six judges if the international criminal court ICC, because Trump didn’t like them issuing arrest warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu and former Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant.
www.lemonde.fr/en/internati...