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Mike Donnelly

@mikedonnelly.bsky.social

150 followers 93 following 410 posts

Chief Economist at a tech company Priors: IRS, IHS Global Insight, DRI, WEFA, Wall Street (J&W Seligman) Former PCBE President (Philly NABE) #EconTwitterIRL 2023 & 2024 Views my own, not my employers’

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 1d

we economists know its bad, but I don't grok it the way a CPA can

Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 1d

also will you try to shoehorn in ADP and/or Revelio private jobs data into the CQM ?
www.reveliolabs.com/news/macro/r...

RPLS Reports 60k Jobs Added in September Amid BLS Shutdown | Revelio Labs

The US economy added 60 thousand jobs in September according to Revelio Public Labor Statistics (RPLS). The estimated job gains come in just above consensus predictions of 52 thousand, and are signifi...

www.reveliolabs.com

Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 1d

assume shutdown extends to Nov-Dec, will you continue to fine tune the 3Q estimate and have a 4Q estimate as well? until the actuals get posted that is my preference

Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 1d

Yes, AFS marked to market, HTM held at cost. I should probably brush up on financial repression before it becomes policy

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 1d

No — banks aren’t required to sell those bonds. Regulations let them keep paper losses unrealized, so they’re incented to hold. Only a true bank run would force sales — and if that happened, the Fed would dust off the BTFP again (imho).

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 1d

QT is nearly over
Green FRN's are already in QE, Blue T-bills and Red Bonds have ended QT. Only item on the Fed's balance sheet still contracting is MBS (which makes sense)

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 1d

The bank losses are real, but are paper losses from earlier high rates.
Banks are now healthy, profitable, and liquid.
imo, As old bonds roll off and new ones earn more, time and income are repairing the damage in the background.

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 4d

Surely we told them this before giving them $20 billion? Right? Where the anakin and padme meme when you need it

Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 4d

I’m starting to think the trade war wasn’t an “oven-ready deal”

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 7d

I was told the tariffs were a one time price change and thus not inflationary, but they keep changing

Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 9d

After ~10% indirect tax → $29,160 net.
In 2025, a min-wage Cratchit ($14.7K) + EITC + CTC – tax = $25.9K cash, plus SNAP & Medicaid ~$40K

Free K-12 school the biggest difference & healthcare.
wage-only Cratchit was lower middle, but today’s minimum-wage family lives better

Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 9d

If I earned £31.2 in 1843 and exchanged it for gold (0.2569 oz per £), I’d have 8 oz of gold — worth $32,400 today at $4,050/oz.

The Victorian desk clerk’s wage, still shining bright.

@besttrousers.bsky.social

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 10d

ACA question.

corp open enrollment is now. When do the folks on ACA see their new 2026 premiums ? I'm guessing not until next year or there would be a panic

Reposted by Mike Donnelly

Sara Estep (she/her) @saraestep.bsky.social · 11d

Aaron is spot on, our paper shows that Trump proposed a 17% reduction in FTEs and currently 34% of senior career staff positions sit empty. Without adequate budget and without protecting these career positions we risk losing this independent analysis. www.americanprogress.org/shareable/mo...

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 19d

imo, its existential for both
Hamas - any deal includes them running Gaza
Israel - any deal includes Hamas not running Gaza
I don't see a way out, hopefully someone smarter than me does.

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 19d

*in two weeks
iykyk

Although hopefully it’s real.

Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 24d

worse, they used to have Radar in their cars and ripped it out to save a nickel. Cadillac, BYD and plenty of others are putting LIDAR into mass production and thus bringing the Lidar cost way down. Used to be $20,000 a car, its around $2,000 now

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 26d

Coffee tariffs lifting price? No. US prices muted by strong USD$ + lag. Sweden’s free market = world’s highest coffee inflation. Elsewhere, state controls mask true cost.
Brazil? Demand destruction when price rose 10% y/y in Feb

Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · 26d

for the millionth time, FSD will be safer when Tesla starts using LIDAR like other car companies

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Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · Sep 18

tossing in the towel on getting the Nobel Peace prize?

Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · Sep 18

In two weeks.
Iykyk

Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · Sep 18

No it is exactly how this works. And democracy around the world doesn’t have an answer

The Atlantic @theatlantic.com · Sep 18

David Letterman to Jeffrey Goldberg on Jimmy Kimmel’s suspension: “You can’t go around firing somebody because you’re fearful or trying to suck up to an authoritarian—a criminal—administration in the Oval Office. That’s just not how this works.” #TAF25 bit.ly/4n0Uv2p

Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · Sep 17

lol, yes but he meant the policy rate

Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · Sep 17

Credit to the staff if he is, that would be a fast insert

Mike Donnelly @mikedonnelly.bsky.social · Sep 17

Credit to the staff for getting Miran’s forecast into the SEP they only had a few days to do it

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