Michael Bociurkiw
michaelbociurkiw.bsky.social
Michael Bociurkiw
@michaelbociurkiw.bsky.social
360 followers 110 following 800 posts
New York Times-published OpEd writer. Global affairs analyst. Author. Sr Fellow - Atlantic Council. Former spox at OSCE & UNICEF. Founder - World Briefing report on Substack
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Beijing’s studied calm contrasted sharply with Trump’s eagerness to declare success. It brought to mind a saying — not truly Chinese, though it feels as if it could be: “You may have the watches, but we have the time.” Few maxims better capture the long game China continues to play….
🕰 Trump Has the Watches. Beijing Has the Time
Behind the smiles in South Korea: no new deals, muted Chinese optics, and a U.S. president racing to claim victory as the clock quietly ticks Beijing’s way.
open.substack.com
World Briefing - Europe Edition: France has become a hot spot in Russia’s hybrid war against Europe, as Moscow seeks to undermine one of Kyiv’s most powerful backers by aggravating its political and social tensions. Plus - more on the fragile Gaza ceasefire
Gaza Burns. Trump Shrugs. Qatar Voices Concern
After Israeli strikes kill over 100, including 35 children, Trump maintains “nothing will jeopardize” the ceasefire while Qatar warns that renewed violence threatens the fragile peace framework.
open.substack.com
Maritime Mutual - a small insurer headquartered in New Zealand, backstopped by some of the world’s biggest reinsurance firms - has helped in the trade of tens of billions of dollars of Iranian and Russian oil by providing vessels skirting Western sanctions with the insurance they need to enter ports
The World’s Most Powerful Storm — Ever!
As Jamaica braces for a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane named Melissa, the rest of the world watches a preview of the climate chaos to come.
open.substack.com
Beyond swirling winds & storm surge lies a quieter disaster: the displacement of millions. As global leaders bicker, the number of climate refugees set to swell to 1.2bm by 2050. I connect the dots between #Melissa’s devastation, rising seas & a political class still pretending the tide isn’t rising
The World’s Most Powerful Storm — Ever!
As Jamaica braces for a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane named Melissa, the rest of the world watches a preview of the climate chaos to come.
open.substack.com
Trump’s Gaza Peace Plan Hits the Real World: Jordan’s King warns no country will risk “enforcing peace” in Gaza, Israel vetoes Turkish troops, and the Palestinian economy collapses under war’s weight — raising the question: who will actually police Trump’s ceasefire?
Gaza Peace Plan Hits the Real World
Jordan’s King warns no country will risk “enforcing peace” in Gaza, Israel vetoes Turkish troops, and the Palestinian economy collapses under war’s weight. Who will actually police Gaza?
open.substack.com
Showman-in-Chief Steals the #ASEAN Spotlight: Donald Trump turns a modest ceasefire into a made-for-TV “peace deal,” choreographing his own diplomatic pageant as Southeast Asia quietly moves on with deeper integration
Showman-in-Chief Steals the ASEAN Spotlight
Trump turns a modest ceasefire into a made-for-TV “peace deal,” choreographing his own diplomatic pageant as Southeast Asia shrugs and quietly moves on with deeper integration.
open.substack.com
Donald Trump presided over a "peace deal" between Thailand & Cambodia of long-standing border dispute, which he calls "historic.” After, Thai foreign minister refused to call it a peace agreement, saying “I would call it a pathway to peace" instead - BBC #ASEAN
In Kyiv, winter temperature in apartments could drop to as low as +5C ( 41F), says head of Radio Technology Center. Attempts to heat massively with electricity can overload the networks. He recommends temporarily relocating to “summer houses with stoves or relatives in villages.”
Headline: Donald Trumps says he’d like China 🇨🇳 “to help us out with Russia, put very big sanctions on Russia.” My reply on
@cnn.com with Fredricka Whitfield: It ain’t gonna happen. Beijing has too much skin in the game when it comes to the war in #Ukraine
#BREAKING: U.S. President Donald Trump has announced on social media he will be increasing tariffs on Canada by "10 per cent over and above what they are paying now" because of an advertisement by the Ontario government - CBC #cdnpoli
Not a great week for #Ukraine: Europe again fails to release $162 billion in frozen Russian assets, stalled largely by Belgium’s resistance. And Britain’s most senior army commander, Field Marshal Lord Richards, bluntly says what many fear: Ukraine cannot win without NATO boots on the ground
World Briefing Plus: Doom, Drones, and the Zig-Zag President - A World on Edge
From calm Moldova to battered Ukraine, EU paralysis over Russian assets, Trump’s erratic foreign policy & tremors off Venezuela — this week’s World Briefing Plus tracks an increasingly unstable globe
open.substack.com
The Trump administration is callously handing over dissidents & Russian Army deserters to the very goons they sought to evade in the first place. They're being greeted at the Moscow arrivals lounge by FSB agents w/arrest warrants & handcuffs. By Alessandra Stanley in @airmail.news
Many Russians Who Escaped Putin’s Iron Curtain Are Now Facing the Same Terrifying Fate
Only this time the destination isn’t an accident, reports Alessandra Stanley.
airmail.news
#BREAKING At least eight injured from an overnight Russian missile and drone attack on Kyiv. Huge fires reported in the #Ukraine capital. According to the head of the Kyiv City Military Administration, kindergarten was damaged.
For now, the sanctions have jolted markets but offered the Kremlin breathing room. By granting a four-week cushion, Trump handed Moscow & its co-conspirators just enough time to adjust. It’s a high-stakes gamble: the most sweeping Western energy sanctions of the war — yet the slowest to take hold…
Trump’s New Sanctions on Russia: Heavy on Optics, Light on Impact — for Now
Washington’s long-awaited strike on Rosneft & Lukoil is being hailed as “tremendous,” yet with a 4-week grace period, the Kremlin may find room to reroute, re-sell, & re-arm its war economy
open.substack.com
#BREAKING: Russian drone strike kills two journalists near frontline. Ukrainian journalist Olena Hubanova and cameraman Yevhen Karmazin of Freedom TV Channel killed by a Russian drone in Kramatorsk. Their car took a direct hit.
Journalist are #NotaTarget
#BREAKING President Trump slaps Russia with new sanctions for 1st time in his 2nd term. They target Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. Most significant measures US taken against Russian energy sector since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine - NYT
It’s hard to recall any red lines that the Russians haven’t crossed in #Ukraine. From bombing children’s and maternity hospitals to destroying churches and schools to deliberately targeting journalists. The list goes on - today a kindergarten in Kharkiv. Almost 50 kids rescued….
Russian strikes targeted private kindergarten in Kharkiv, second-largest city in #Ukraine. Almost 50 children were in the bomb shelter at the time of the hit. No deaths or serious injuries reported. Mayor says three drones hit the kindergarten directly
Men in #Ukraine️ reportedly been paying up to $15K for medical exemption from military service. Despite a huge overhaul promised by President Zelensky in 2023, the schemes continue. Today, 4 military medical examination commission members suspended in Odesa for allegedly issuing fake certificates
Apocalyptic images coming out of Kyiv after another massive Russian attack. “Is this really the face of a partner for peace?” I spoke this morning to BBC’s Sally Bundock on the shelving of the Putin-Trump Budapest summit. #Ukraine
Expect to see a diminished role of Donald Trump in the Ukraine 🇺🇦 war talks and the center of gravity of negotiations shifting back to Europe, and especially Turkey - given President Erdogan’s outsized role in the Gaza talks - I suggested to CNN’s Isa Soares
‪Odesa opposition MP Oleksij Goncharenko criticising officials for not protecting heating infrastructure from RF attacks: “I see many questions about why the heating is not turned on…they have practically destroyed our entire gas system. We were not prepared for this.” Says winter heating uncertain