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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · Jul 25

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social is on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act 2025 passed by Congress and signed by President Trump on 4 July.

Congressional Budget Office analysis indicates spending cuts should be more than offset by tax cuts over the next 10 years.

Read more: bit.ly/4o7KRvE

ICAEW chart of the week: A step chart showing the projected effect of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act 2025 on the average annual US federal government deficit between FY2025 and FY2034.

Left hand column: Baseline projection $2,109bn.

Steps 1 to 3 (shaded): Spending cuts -$110bn plus Tax cuts +$449bn plus Extra interest +$68bn.

Step 4: Net change +$407bn (total of steps 1 to 3).

Right hand column: Revised projection $2,516bn.

25 Jul 2025. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA. Design by Sunday.
Sources: Congressional Budget Office; ICAEW calculations.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · Jul 18

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social is on the costs of #climatechange and our need to get the public finances back under control and improve the UK's resilience against storms and floods as the climate gets warmer and wetter.

Read more: bit.ly/3UhAo34

A line chart on climate change and the public finances, with three curved lines for public sector net as a share of GDP over fifty years. with labels from March 2034 onwards.

Bottom line: Baseline public sector net debt/GDP. Falls from just under 100% of GDP to 90% of GDP in March 2034 and then rises to 100%, 130%, 188% and 274% of GDP in March 2044, 2054, 2064 and 2074 respectively.

Middle line: Baseline + climate change (below 3°C scenario). Rises from 94% of GDP in March 2034 (label not shown) to 114%, 157%, 235% and 348% of GDP in March 2044, 2054, 2064 and 2074 respectively.

Top line: Baseline + climate change + economic shocks. Rises from 104% in March 2034 to 134%, 187%, 275% and then 398% in March 2074.

18 Jul 2025. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA. Design by Sunday. Sources: OBR, 'Fiscal risks and sustainability', Sep 2024 and Jul 2025 reports.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · Jul 11

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social is on the balance of payments in 2024/25, showing how the current account deficit of £83bn comprises a trade deficit of £44bn, net investment and other earnings of £23bn, and net transfers of £16bn.

Read more: bit.ly/4nHBhQ9

A step chart on the balance of payments in 2024/25 showing payments and receipts on either side, with three shaded sub-steps in-between adding up to the current account deficit, being the difference between total payments and receipts.

Payments £1,401bn = £924bn for imports + £430bn earnings + £47bn transfers.

Receipts £1,318bn = £880bn from exports + £407bn earnings + £31bn transfers.

Step 1: Trade deficit (imports and exports) -£44bn.
Step 2: Primary income deficit (earnings) -£23bn.
Step 3: Secondary income deficit (transfers) -£16bn.

Step 4: Current account deficit (sum of steps 1 to 3) -£83bn.

11 Jul 2025. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA. Design by Sunday. Source: ONS, 'Balance of payments, UK: Jan-Mar 2025', seasonally adjusted, four quarters to Mar 2025.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · Jul 4

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social is on the #energypricecap in the UK, which fell by 7% in the third quarter of 2025 to £1,720. Domestic energy prices have stabilised recently, but remain vulnerable to global events.

Read more: bit.ly/4le6CIH

@ofgem.gov.uk @cornwallinsight.bsky.social

Column chart on the energy price cap by quarter since 2023. There is a vertical line between 2023 Q4 and 2024 Q1 to show the point when typical energy usage changed.

Price cap 2023 Q1 £4,279, Q2 £3,280, Q3 £2,074 and Q4 £1,923; 2024 Q1 £1,928, Q2 £1,690, Q3 £1,568 and Q4 £1,179; 2025 Q1 £1,738, Q2 £1,849, Q3 £1,720 and Q4 £1,698 (pale colours as a forecast).

Bars show annual standing charges and per kWh electricity and gas prices for each quarter as set out in the accompanying article.

4 Jul 2025. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA. Design by Sunday. Sources: Ofgem, Cornwall Insights. Typical electricity and gas usage 2,900kWh and 12,000KWh to 2023 Q4 and 2,700kWh and 11,500kWh from 2024 Q1.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · Jun 27

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social illustrates the relative shares of economic activity around the world compared with population on both a market-exchange rate and purchasing power basis.

Read more: bit.ly/46fES1l

A three column chart each adding up to 100% with the central bar showing percentages of the global population, the left-hand bar showing percentages of market GDP. and the right-hand bar showing percentage of power-purchasing-parity (PPP) GDP. The bars are linked with lines to emphasise the relative proportions.

US & Canada: Market GDP 29% - Population 5% - PPP GDP 16%.
Europe: Market GDP 23% - Population 7% - PPP GDP 18%.
China: Market GDP 17% - Population 17% - PPP GDP 20%.
Rest of the world: Market GDP 24% - Population 28% - PPP GDP 30%.
South Asia & China: Market GDP 7% - Population 43% - PPP GDP 16%.

27 Jun 2025. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft. Design by Sunday. Source: IMF, 'World Economic Outlook Database, Apr 2025'.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · Jun 20

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social is on the #spendingreview again this week, looking at how more money for capital investment contrasts with a tight settlement for operating budgets. #publicfinances @darrenpjones.bsky.social

Read more: bit.ly/4jVUhaj

A step chart showing the Spending Review 2025 change in total departmental budgets over three years.

2025/26: Day-to-day spending £517bn + Capital investment £131bn = total £648bn.

Inflation: +£38bn (+1.9% a year).

Day-to-day spending: +£21bn (+1.3% a year).

Capital investment: +£10bn (+2.4% a year).

2028/29: Day-to-day spending £568bn + Capital investment £149bn = total £717bn.

20 Jun 2025. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft. Design by Sunday.
Source: HM Treasury. 'Spending Review 2025'.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · Jun 13

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social is on the Spending Review 2025 and how the Chancellor and @darrenpjones.bsky.social ‪have set out the UK Government's priorities through the financial choices they have made.

Read more: bit.ly/43IR7lF

A bar chart showing the average annual percentage increase in departmental spending over the three years to 2028/29.

Defence +3.8%.
Security +3.7%.
Business & Trade +3.0%.
Health +2.7%.
Local Government. +2.6% (central funding +1.1%, balance from local taxation).
Justice +2.0%.
Overall average increase +1.5%.
Science +0.9%.
Education +0.8%.
Devolved administrations +0.7%.
Energy & New Zero +0.7%.
Home Office +0.5%.
Cabinet Office +0.4%.
DWP -0.2%.
Transport -0.5%.
Culture, Media & Sport -1.4%.
HMRC -1.5%.
Hm Treasury -1.9%.
Agriculture & Rural Affairs -2.3%.
Foreign & Development -8.3%.
Asylum -13.1%.

13 Jun 2025. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft. Design by Sunday. Source: HM Treasury, 'Spending Review 2025'.

Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · Jun 6

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social is on NATO defence spending this week, illustrating how much more NATO countries would need to spend to reach President Trump's proposed new targets of 3.5% or 5.0% of GDP.

Read more: bit.ly/3ZjKGmx

Two column chart showing NATO defence spending.

Left hand column - USA: £732bn defence spending in 2024, £67bn defence spending to 3.5% of GDP, and £342bn defence-related spending to 5.0% of GDP = £1,141bn total.

Right hand column - Europe and Canada: £408bn defence spending in 2024, £36bn defence spending to 2.0% of GDP, £271bn defence spending to 3.5% of GDP, and £301bn defence-related spending to 5.0% of GDP.

6 June 2025. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA. Design by Sunday. Sources: NATO, 'Annual Report 2024'; ICAEW calculations.

Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · May 30

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social is on how quarterly GDP has increased by 21% over the last three years. Most of that has been inflation, with economic growth of just 2.8% - a fall of 0.5% on a per person basis.

Read more: bit.ly/3HhsHGW

A step chart showing the change in quarterly GDP over three years.

Quarterly GDP in 2022 Q1 of £610.3bn + Inflation (GDP deflator) of £108.0bn (+17.7%) + Economic growth of £20.3bn (+2.8%) = £738.6bn in 2025 Q1.

Shaded box in the middle shows population growth of +£23.7bn (+3.3%) - per capita growth of £3.4bn (-0.5%) = +£20.3bn (+2.8%) for economic growth.

30 May 2025. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA. Design by Sunday. Source: ONS, 'GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: Jan-Mar 2025'.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · May 24

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social is on UK-EU trade in 2024 in the light of Monday's deal to reduce trade barriers put in place since Brexit.

Read more: bit.ly/4kwUb9N

@ukgovernment.bsky.social @eudelegationuk.bsky.social

Step chart on UK-EU trade in 2024.

Left hand column: UK imports from EU of £454bn (agriproducts £50bn + goods £264bn + services £140bn).

Steps: Less trade deficit on agriproducts of £33bn less trade deficit on goods of £107bn plus trade surplus on services of £47bn = an overall trade deficit of £93bn.

Right hand column: UK exports to EU of £361bn (agriproducts £17bn + goods £157bn + services £187bn).

23 May 2025. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft. Source: ONS, 'UK trade: goods and services publication tables'. (c) ICAEW 2025.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · May 2

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social is on Canada this week, highlighting its trade surplus on energy sales to the US, and trade deficits on other goods and services.

Read more: bit.ly/3RLw7UE

A step chart illustrating the differences between Canadian imports and exports in 2024.

Left hand column - US exports to Canada: C$601bn = C$36bn energy + C$442bn goods (excluding energy) + C$123bn services.

Right hand column - Canada exports to the US: C$650bn = C$171bn energy + C$404bn goods (excluding energy) + C$75bn services.

Step 1 - Trade surplus on energy +C$135bn.
Step 2 - Trade deficit on goods -C£38bn.
Step 3 - Trade deficit on services -C$48bn.

2 May 2025. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA. Design by Sunday.

Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; US International Trade Commission. C$1.37 = US1.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · Apr 4

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social looks at trade with the US in light of the 10% tariffs imposed on the UK by President Trump on ‘liberation day’.

Read more: bit.ly/3R4JlLQ

ICAEW chart of the week: trade with the US -

A column chart showing the £71bn UK trade surplus with the US in the year to September 2024 (seasonally adjusted), being the difference between UK exports to the US of £182bn (£58bn in goods exports and £124bn in services exports) and UK imports from the US of £111bn (£56bn in goods imports and £55bn in services imports).

4 Apr 2025. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA. Design by Sunday.
Source: DBT, 'United States Trade and Investment Factsheet, 21 Feb 2025'.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · Mar 28

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social takes a look at how the Chancellor trimmed the government's spending plans to dig the public finances out of the hole created by a deteriorating fiscal forecast.

Read more: bit.ly/3DLQq0N

Step chart showing changes to the 2029/30 forecast current budget balance since Oct 2024.

£10bn current budget surplus per the Oct 2024 forecast- £2bn lower growth - £10bn higher interest - £2bn other revisions = £4bn current budget deficit revised forecast + £5bn extra receipts + £11bn spending cuts - £2bn = £10bn current budget surplus per the Mar 2025 forecast.

The chart also shows how the Oct 2024 forecast fiscal deficit of £71bn = a current budget surplus £10bn - £81bn net investment; how the revised forecast of £84bn = £4bn current budget deficit + £80bn net investment; and how the Mar 2025 forecast deficit of £74bn = a current budget surplus £10bn - £84bn net investment.

28 Mar 2025. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA. Design by Sunday.

Source: OBR, 'Economic and fiscal outlook, Mar 2025'.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · Feb 7

The end of year capital rush

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social this week highlights the big rush in UK public sector capital expenditure in the final quarter of each financial year. Just what is it about March that makes it the best time to build new assets?

Read more: bit.ly/3CGFxww

Column chart illustrating UK public sector capital expenditure by quarter, comprising three financial years each made up of four quarters.

2022/23 £85.3bn: Q1 (Apr-Jun) £14.4bn, Q2 (Jul-Sep) £18.4bn, Q3 (Oct-Dec) £20.2bn, Q4 (Jan-Mar) £32.3bn.
2023/24 £102.7bn: Q1 £18.6bn, Q2 £22.8bn, Q3 £24.2bn, Q4 £37.1bn.
2024/25 £109.0bn (forecast): Q1 £20.4bn, Q2 £23.8bn, Q3 £25.8bn, Q4 forecast £39.0bn.

7 Feb 2025. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA.
Sources: ONS, 'Public sector finances, Dec 2024’; OBR, ‘Economic and fiscal outlook, Oct 2024’.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · Jan 24

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social looks at how federal debt is on track to reach and exceed levels last seen in the 1940s according to Congressional Budget Office forecasts released just before President Trump was inaugurated.

Read more: bit.ly/40MvnDZ

Shaded-area chart showing debt held by the public/GDP between 1905 and 2035, with highlightedpeaks of 106% of GDP in 1946, 48% in 1993, a projected 100% in Sep 2025, and a projected 118% in Sep 2035.

24 Jan 2025. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA. Design by Sunday. Source: US Congressional Budget Office.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · Nov 29

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social looks at what we all do for a living.

The government wants to move more people from 'economic inactivity' into the workforce, benefiting the #publicfinances twice over by cutting welfare and bringing in more tax receipts.

Read more: bit.ly/3VdcpmA

Pie chart showing what we all do for a living.

Employees 29.0m (42%), self-employed (6%), unemployed 1.5m (2%), not working as ill or disabled (4%), homemakers and other 2.7m (4%), retired 12.3m (18%), children under 16 13.9m (20%), and students 16 and over 2.5m (4%).

28 Nov 2024. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA. Design by Sunday.
Source: ONS, 'Summary of labour market statistics, Jul-Sep 2024'.
(C) ICAEW 2024.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · Sep 27

My #icaewchartoftheweek illustrates how PM Keir Starmer’s £172,153 salary entitlement would have been £305,770 if prime ministerial pay had kept pace with inflation since 2009.

Perhaps it might be time for an independent pay review body for the PM?

Read more: bit.ly/4gILOXG

Column chart showing the Prime Minister's actual salary, official salary and official salary extrapolated in line with inflation on 1 April between 2009 and 2024. See text for numbers.

26 Sep 2024. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA. Design by Sunday. Sources: House of Commons research briefings; ICAEW calculations. (c) ICAEW 2024.

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