Luke Piper
@lukepiper.bsky.social
Solicitor. Head of Immigration at the Work Rights Centre. All things U.K. immigration law / policy mainly. Yorkshireman in Bristol.
Pinned
Luke Piper
@lukepiper.bsky.social
· May 11
BREAKING: “We will be closing the care worker visa for overseas recruitment” - Home Secretary Yvette Cooper
Don’t we have a desperate shortage of care workers?
Don’t we have a desperate shortage of care workers?
The debate around care visas in the political space boils down to people saying stuff like this - we desperately need people.
It's a good soundbite but...
A significant surge in care visas were issued since 2020 in response to sector demand and yet the problem of shortage has persisted.
Why?
It's a good soundbite but...
A significant surge in care visas were issued since 2020 in response to sector demand and yet the problem of shortage has persisted.
Why?
Reposted by Luke Piper
Revised net migration projection based on yesterday’s data, the new ILR policy and an expected gradual decline in dependant numbers (Currently dependant applications are double main applicant applications for work visas but this won’t last).
Yes it is negative in 2026. Roughly -110,000 to -10,000.
Yes it is negative in 2026. Roughly -110,000 to -10,000.
November 28, 2025 at 5:47 PM
Revised net migration projection based on yesterday’s data, the new ILR policy and an expected gradual decline in dependant numbers (Currently dependant applications are double main applicant applications for work visas but this won’t last).
Yes it is negative in 2026. Roughly -110,000 to -10,000.
Yes it is negative in 2026. Roughly -110,000 to -10,000.
One of my biggest fears is how the toughening up of restrictions directed at the many tens of thousands of people on Health and Care visas (both for extensions and settlement) will see increases in undocumented people. Instead of helping them, they are being demonised.
Today's migration stats illustrate the migration doom loop in action...
(from my presentation at the IMF last week)
(from my presentation at the IMF last week)
November 27, 2025 at 11:17 AM
One of my biggest fears is how the toughening up of restrictions directed at the many tens of thousands of people on Health and Care visas (both for extensions and settlement) will see increases in undocumented people. Instead of helping them, they are being demonised.
Reposted by Luke Piper
Graduate visa numbers are falling now. Including dependants, half as many grants in Q3 2025 as in Q3 2024. Mainly because of the fall in international student numbers.
November 27, 2025 at 10:49 AM
Graduate visa numbers are falling now. Including dependants, half as many grants in Q3 2025 as in Q3 2024. Mainly because of the fall in international student numbers.
I'm not sure how much it is appreciated that there will be significant emigration coming. Those here on graduate visas coming to an end, the toughening up of skilled worker rules re. salaries/sponsorable roles and the 'earned settlement' changes to come. Lots of people are going to leave.
November 27, 2025 at 11:08 AM
I'm not sure how much it is appreciated that there will be significant emigration coming. Those here on graduate visas coming to an end, the toughening up of skilled worker rules re. salaries/sponsorable roles and the 'earned settlement' changes to come. Lots of people are going to leave.
Reposted by Luke Piper
The 10 year part of the 'earned settlement' plan is not exactly popular and might cause drift amongst Labour's supporters according to this v.interesting report from @britishfuture.bsky.social .
I wonder, is the calculation that by going harder than expected they politically stand to lose less?
I wonder, is the calculation that by going harder than expected they politically stand to lose less?
November 27, 2025 at 9:12 AM
The 10 year part of the 'earned settlement' plan is not exactly popular and might cause drift amongst Labour's supporters according to this v.interesting report from @britishfuture.bsky.social .
I wonder, is the calculation that by going harder than expected they politically stand to lose less?
I wonder, is the calculation that by going harder than expected they politically stand to lose less?
Reposted by Luke Piper
PUBLISHED TODAY: ‘Noise & Nuance: What the public really thinks about immigration’ – new findings from the British Future/Ipsos Immigration Attitudes Tracker, which has studied public opinion on immigration and asylum since 2015 [🧵]
November 27, 2025 at 7:44 AM
PUBLISHED TODAY: ‘Noise & Nuance: What the public really thinks about immigration’ – new findings from the British Future/Ipsos Immigration Attitudes Tracker, which has studied public opinion on immigration and asylum since 2015 [🧵]
Reposted by Luke Piper
Today's immigration statistics (at 930) will likely show a further steep fall.
@jamesbowes01.bsky.social explains why.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
@jamesbowes01.bsky.social explains why.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
The coming collapse in immigration to the United Kingdom - UK in a changing Europe
James Bowes analyses the fall in net migration to the UK as a result of government policies and explores some of the political and economic consequences.
ukandeu.ac.uk
November 27, 2025 at 7:13 AM
Today's immigration statistics (at 930) will likely show a further steep fall.
@jamesbowes01.bsky.social explains why.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
@jamesbowes01.bsky.social explains why.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
Reposted by Luke Piper
Most of the public think net migration increased last year, when in fact numbers halved.
New findings from the Ipsos/British Future Immigration Attitudes Tracker show that 56% of the public thinks immigration increased last year. Just 1 in 6 realise it was down
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
New findings from the Ipsos/British Future Immigration Attitudes Tracker show that 56% of the public thinks immigration increased last year. Just 1 in 6 realise it was down
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
November 27, 2025 at 12:45 AM
Most of the public think net migration increased last year, when in fact numbers halved.
New findings from the Ipsos/British Future Immigration Attitudes Tracker show that 56% of the public thinks immigration increased last year. Just 1 in 6 realise it was down
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
New findings from the Ipsos/British Future Immigration Attitudes Tracker show that 56% of the public thinks immigration increased last year. Just 1 in 6 realise it was down
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
Which of these is the "cause of our division"?
Those who came under the Ukraine Schemes to be protected from Russia's aggression?
Those sponsored to work in the Health and Care sector?
The BNOs from Hong Kong?
The students attending our universities?
Those who came under the Ukraine Schemes to be protected from Russia's aggression?
Those sponsored to work in the Health and Care sector?
The BNOs from Hong Kong?
The students attending our universities?
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood made more explicit her argument that when ethnic minorities face racism, "we have no choice but to ask: what is the cause of our division"
Her answer is the level of net migration, 2019-23 causes racism. (She on Monday said it was caused by the scale of asylum)
Her answer is the level of net migration, 2019-23 causes racism. (She on Monday said it was caused by the scale of asylum)
November 23, 2025 at 11:12 AM
Which of these is the "cause of our division"?
Those who came under the Ukraine Schemes to be protected from Russia's aggression?
Those sponsored to work in the Health and Care sector?
The BNOs from Hong Kong?
The students attending our universities?
Those who came under the Ukraine Schemes to be protected from Russia's aggression?
Those sponsored to work in the Health and Care sector?
The BNOs from Hong Kong?
The students attending our universities?
Reposted by Luke Piper
‘It’s wrong’: the Labour MP speaking out against the party’s asylum policy
‘It’s wrong’: the Labour MP speaking out against the party’s asylum policy
As a well-informed MP on the frontline of the debate, Tony Vaughan’s views are particularly unwelcome to government
www.theguardian.com
November 22, 2025 at 1:48 PM
‘It’s wrong’: the Labour MP speaking out against the party’s asylum policy
Reposted by Luke Piper
I've done my best to explain the "earned settlement" policy announced yesterday, which will create a series of new tests that claim to assess "contribution" to Britain rather than granting ILR based on time spent in the UK alone
The winners? High earners
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/20/w...
The winners? High earners
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/20/w...
Want to Immigrate to Britain? The Government Says You Must Earn It.
www.nytimes.com
November 21, 2025 at 10:05 AM
I've done my best to explain the "earned settlement" policy announced yesterday, which will create a series of new tests that claim to assess "contribution" to Britain rather than granting ILR based on time spent in the UK alone
The winners? High earners
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/20/w...
The winners? High earners
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/20/w...
Reposted by Luke Piper
Mahmood/government should say explain *objective* of increasing time to settlement for 15 years for care workers who arrived 2022-24
Is it
A) to get them to leave? Why?
B) to save money? Then why not just restrict benefits?
C) to "encourage integration"? How? Will do opposite.
Is it
A) to get them to leave? Why?
B) to save money? Then why not just restrict benefits?
C) to "encourage integration"? How? Will do opposite.
15 years for people in medium skilled jobs and care workers too. I believe this goes down to 10 years if they earn over £50,270. Someone in a high skilled job earning over that qualifies in 5 years.
November 21, 2025 at 10:04 AM
Mahmood/government should say explain *objective* of increasing time to settlement for 15 years for care workers who arrived 2022-24
Is it
A) to get them to leave? Why?
B) to save money? Then why not just restrict benefits?
C) to "encourage integration"? How? Will do opposite.
Is it
A) to get them to leave? Why?
B) to save money? Then why not just restrict benefits?
C) to "encourage integration"? How? Will do opposite.
Earned Settlement plan when implemented will be done via secondary legislation (the rules). There will be no parliamentary scrutiny prior. Once done, it'll be v.hard to politically reverse. It's a watershed moment and will define immigration policy for at least a decade.
November 20, 2025 at 6:35 PM
Earned Settlement plan when implemented will be done via secondary legislation (the rules). There will be no parliamentary scrutiny prior. Once done, it'll be v.hard to politically reverse. It's a watershed moment and will define immigration policy for at least a decade.
Reposted by Luke Piper
In the foreword to settlement consultation, the Home Secretary tells us that "My father came here in the early 1970s, and my mother a little less than a decade later."
November 20, 2025 at 4:51 PM
In the foreword to settlement consultation, the Home Secretary tells us that "My father came here in the early 1970s, and my mother a little less than a decade later."
We're all making our way through this consultation document and I'm initially struck by the risks of discrimination towards those with disabilities, single parents, women etc.
November 20, 2025 at 2:17 PM
We're all making our way through this consultation document and I'm initially struck by the risks of discrimination towards those with disabilities, single parents, women etc.
Reposted by Luke Piper
The government's statement and consultation on "earned settlement" is out assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/691edd...
November 20, 2025 at 2:03 PM
The government's statement and consultation on "earned settlement" is out assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/691edd...
Worth remembering given the proposed ILR changes are going to be announced today. A "consultation" by the Home Office is usually 'this is what we want to do, how can we implement it?' rather than 'these are the various options we are thinking about, which do you prefer and why?'.
November 20, 2025 at 9:57 AM
Worth remembering given the proposed ILR changes are going to be announced today. A "consultation" by the Home Office is usually 'this is what we want to do, how can we implement it?' rather than 'these are the various options we are thinking about, which do you prefer and why?'.
Reposted by Luke Piper
The i Paper is reporting that once the changes are brought in, the 20 year route will be applied to refugees who are already here.
I can't over emphasise the level of terror this will cause to our refugee population, and the lack of detail and timescale will make it very difficult to calm nerves.
I can't over emphasise the level of terror this will cause to our refugee population, and the lack of detail and timescale will make it very difficult to calm nerves.
November 19, 2025 at 8:06 AM
The i Paper is reporting that once the changes are brought in, the 20 year route will be applied to refugees who are already here.
I can't over emphasise the level of terror this will cause to our refugee population, and the lack of detail and timescale will make it very difficult to calm nerves.
I can't over emphasise the level of terror this will cause to our refugee population, and the lack of detail and timescale will make it very difficult to calm nerves.
Reposted by Luke Piper
The "safe and legal routes", the sop to allow Labour MPs to convince themselves that there's a smidgen of morality here, are to cover "a few hundred people"
Mahmood faces calls for compassion and clarity over hardline asylum policies
Home secretary urged to explain statement that asylum admissions will start at ‘a few hundred’ people
www.theguardian.com
November 18, 2025 at 4:51 PM
The "safe and legal routes", the sop to allow Labour MPs to convince themselves that there's a smidgen of morality here, are to cover "a few hundred people"
Reposted by Luke Piper
Worth noting:
• Upward revision applies to entire 2021-2024 series — the *trend* in emigration is *roughly* flat
• As infuriating as big revisions are, they mean data is getting better
• BUT wild that we ever used a survey to gauge movements into and out of the country instead of counting people!
• Upward revision applies to entire 2021-2024 series — the *trend* in emigration is *roughly* flat
• As infuriating as big revisions are, they mean data is getting better
• BUT wild that we ever used a survey to gauge movements into and out of the country instead of counting people!
November 18, 2025 at 12:40 PM
Worth noting:
• Upward revision applies to entire 2021-2024 series — the *trend* in emigration is *roughly* flat
• As infuriating as big revisions are, they mean data is getting better
• BUT wild that we ever used a survey to gauge movements into and out of the country instead of counting people!
• Upward revision applies to entire 2021-2024 series — the *trend* in emigration is *roughly* flat
• As infuriating as big revisions are, they mean data is getting better
• BUT wild that we ever used a survey to gauge movements into and out of the country instead of counting people!
Reposted by Luke Piper
With the new data on net migration and the lower than expected visa applications in October we‘re looking at even lower figures. -20,000 to 80,000 in 2026 as a first rough calculation. Lower if dependant numbers start to fall (which I‘d expect to happen purely based on main applicant numbers).
November 18, 2025 at 12:40 PM
With the new data on net migration and the lower than expected visa applications in October we‘re looking at even lower figures. -20,000 to 80,000 in 2026 as a first rough calculation. Lower if dependant numbers start to fall (which I‘d expect to happen purely based on main applicant numbers).
Reposted by Luke Piper
Our Policy Manager Adis Sehic is in Westminster Hall today for a drop-in session with MPs to discuss our concerns over the immigration changes that will overhaul the skilled worker route and double the ILR eligibility to 10 years.
Thank you to @neilduncanjordan.bsky.social for hosting us.
Thank you to @neilduncanjordan.bsky.social for hosting us.
November 18, 2025 at 12:06 PM
Our Policy Manager Adis Sehic is in Westminster Hall today for a drop-in session with MPs to discuss our concerns over the immigration changes that will overhaul the skilled worker route and double the ILR eligibility to 10 years.
Thank you to @neilduncanjordan.bsky.social for hosting us.
Thank you to @neilduncanjordan.bsky.social for hosting us.
I've worked in this area of law/policy long enough to see most of what was announced yesterday tried before/reheated/varied. Defining Family Life? Done repeatedly, notably in 2012 by Theresa May. Appeal Reforms? How far back do you want to go! Temporary Status for refugees? We already do it.
Coverage of the refugee proposals demonstrates why we have such a broken political system. Endless focus on left-wing anger and right-wing support. Basically nothing on whether the reforms will work. They will not, which is why we'll still be here having the same debate in three years.
November 18, 2025 at 12:05 PM
I've worked in this area of law/policy long enough to see most of what was announced yesterday tried before/reheated/varied. Defining Family Life? Done repeatedly, notably in 2012 by Theresa May. Appeal Reforms? How far back do you want to go! Temporary Status for refugees? We already do it.
Reposted by Luke Piper
Going to leave you with a Home Office chart from their most recent asylum stats so you can decide whether the UK is a magnet for asylum seekers with a uniquely generous asylum system www.gov.uk/government/s...
November 17, 2025 at 4:44 PM
Going to leave you with a Home Office chart from their most recent asylum stats so you can decide whether the UK is a magnet for asylum seekers with a uniquely generous asylum system www.gov.uk/government/s...