Author | Lightnews

Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 14m

The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI increased to 52.2 in October, up from 51.2 in September, and higher than forecasts of 51.

October represents the sharpest pace of expansion since May of last year.

Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 34m

Statistics Canada says the number of Canadians traveling to the US fell for the eighth straight month in August, with 29.7% fewer Canadians returning from trips to the United States compared to a year earlier.

1

Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 1d

And yes, it's still down roughly 97% from its all-time high.

1

Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 1d

"The bigger they are, the harder they fall."

1

Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 1d

Sources say as early as next month, Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may announce a massive stimulus package that will likely surpass last year’s $92 billion initiative aimed at helping households cope with inflation.

Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 1d

China's GDP expanded by 4.8% in Q3 2025 compared to the same period last year, marking the lowest growth since Q3 last year.

Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 2d

While it improved by one position from last year, the United States still only ranks as the 15th most competitive tax system in the Tax Foundation's latest study.

2 3

Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 2d

LNG exporters in the US have announced plans to more than double US liquefaction capacity between 2025 and 2029.

Together with Mexico and Canada, North American export capacity additions will equate to more than 50% of all expected global additions through 2029.

1

Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 2d

According to Vanguard, US job growth was just 0.1% in seven of the first nine months of 2025.

The last time job growth was that soft for a meaningful period?

The Great Recession in 2009.

1 1 3

Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 2d

In a potential sign of economic pullback, around 20% fewer people (roughly 400,000) visited the massive State Fair of Texas this year compared to 2024.

The Ferris Wheel Indicator?

1

Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 2d

SmartSense’s “Frozenomics” study of 1,000 U.S. adults found 63% say their financial situation has worsened over the past 12 months, and 65% report their grocery budgets have tightened.

Notably, two-thirds of Gen Z respondents report relying more on frozen foods to cope with the situation.

Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 2d

China overtook the US as Germany's largest trading partner in the first eight months of the year, with German imports and exports with the world's second-largest economy totaling 163.4 billion euros ($190.7 billion), besting the US's 162.8 billion euros.

Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 3d

Forget Tech: The Real AI Trade Might Be Power, Pipes, and Payouts

Read here: www.leadlagreport.com/p/forget-tec...

2

Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 3d

Cracks in the Shadows: Private Debt Jitters Trigger a Risk-Off Jolt

Read here: www.leadlagreport.com/p/cracks-in-...

2

Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 3d

Lumber’s Year in Review: Housing, Gold, and a Distorted Risk Signal

Read here: www.leadlagreport.com/p/lumbers-ye...

2

Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 3d

Defensive, Discounted, and About to Dominate: 5 Stocks Hiding in Plain Sight

Read here: www.leadlagreport.com/p/defensive-...

Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 3d

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the US decreased to 6.37% in the week ending October 17, down from 6.42% in the previous period.

Rates are once again approaching the one-year low seen roughly one month back.

Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 5d

While he concedes it will likely be another quarter-point trimming, Fed Governor Stephen Miran says he intends to repeat his support for a 50 bps rate cut when the central bank meets later this month.

2

Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 5d

A Treasury official, quoting a report by the White House Council of Economic Advisors, said the government shutdown may be costing the U.S. economy upwards of $15 billion a week.

1 1 2

Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 5d

The number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits dropped last week to a seasonally adjusted 217K, down from 235K the week prior, according to estimates from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs.

Still, weak hiring means many Americans remain unemployed.

1

Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 5d

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said he doesn't think that there's is a big risk the labor market will weaken sharply or inflation will surge.

However, of the two, the labor market remains the biggest risk.

1

Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 5d

S&P estimates that tariff costs to companies this year will reach $1.2 trillion, with consumers absorbing more than half of the impact.

1

Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 5d

Some Chinese exporters are abandoning the US market, instead focusing on expanding sales to buyers in other markets.

Exports from China have grown 7.1% to 19.95T yuan ($2.80T) in the first nine months of this year, despite a huge drop in goods heading to the US.

1 2

Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 5d

A recent Conference Board survey showed that CEO confidence fell slightly, dipping further into negative territory.

Roughly two-thirds of CEO said they expect stagflation over the next 18 months.

1

Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 6d

Over 8 out of 10 CEOs of a recent Conference Board survey say they expect artificial intelligence to "fundamentally change most job roles in their organization within five years."

However, less than 1 in 10 said that it's already happening.

1